Minnesota Wild General Discussion X

[Dr Jan Itor]

Draft the right guy, and the strategy works. Draft the wrong guy and you get to carry it over to the next year (you might get to regardless).

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Draft the right guy, and the strategy works. Draft the wrong guy and you get to carry it over to the next year (you might get to regardless).

Such is the basis of any successful organization. Draft the right guy

 

[AKL]

Draft the right guy, and the strategy works. Draft the wrong guy and you get to carry it over to the next year (you might get to regardless).

Interesting, I didn't consider this until now.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Interesting, I didn't consider this until now.

Such is the basis of any successful organization. Draft the right guy

Just saying that the idea that it'll only be a 1 year thing is oversimplified. It depends very heavily on something that isn't close to a guarantee.

 

[AKL]

Just saying that the idea that it'll only be a 1 year thing is oversimplified. It depends very heavily on something that isn't close to a guarantee.

Yeah but even if we don't do anything, it's still likely to be more than a one year thing.
Getting more draft picks and potentially a higher (top 5) pick, just lessens the pain of the future.
Lafreniere would inject an immense amount of skill next season. Byfield would be a top 6 center the year after. Other than that, no one is going to make it next year anyway.
It's not that drafting high will fix all of our issues next season, it's that it's going to help more beyond next season, compared to picking 12th-14th.

And regardless of whether we pick 3rd or 14th, it's not going to turn it from a more than one year thing into a one year thing.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah but even if we don't do anything, it's still likely to be more than a one year thing.
Getting more draft picks and potentially a higher (top 5) pick, just lessens the pain of the future.
Lafreniere would inject an immense amount of skill next season. Byfield would be a top 6 center the year after. Other than that, no one is going to make it next year anyway.
It's not that drafting high will fix all of our issues next season, it's that it's going to help more beyond next season, compared to picking 12th-14th.

And regardless of whether we pick 3rd or 14th, it's not going to turn it from a more than one year thing into a one year thing.

Potentially.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Just saying that the idea that it'll only be a 1 year thing is oversimplified. It depends very heavily on something that isn't close to a guarantee.

I know. I never argued that it’s a one year rebuild. I argued that we are able to add high-end prospects this year while being as good and likely better next year. In other words, I said that by being bad this year, we don’t have to be a basement dweller for a decade like was being asserted earlier in the thread. The idea behind this year is to give ourselves the best shot of finding a 1C possible. It’s not a sure thing, but it’s our best option. as @AKL said earlier, we reassess at this point next year. Nobody is saying that We’re going to be a cup contender in one year, but that we have a very good base to build one in the future if we take the rest of the year off. There’s obviously uncontrollable circumstances, but it’s about infusing as much young talent into the organization as possible, seeing where we’re at next year, and then making the proper moves form there.

 

[AKL]

Potentially.

Yeah, potentially.

Not sure what you're trying to prove.

No one ever said anything is guaranteed. I'd just rather have the 4th pick than the 14th. Wouldn't you?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah, potentially.

Not sure what you're trying to prove.

No one ever said anything is guaranteed. I'd just rather have the 4th pick than the 14th. Wouldn't you?

Just being mindful of all of the other things that have to go right to make a terrible season worth it.

 

[AKL]

Just being mindful of all of the other things that have to go right to make a terrible season worth it.

We’re having a bad season regardless of whether it ends up being worth it or not.

I’m simply hoping for it to be worth it.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

We’re having a bad season regardless of whether it ends up being worth it or not.

I’m simply hoping for it to be worth it.

Then I hope the draft class is as good as you say.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

@Dr Jan Itor just out of curiosity, what would you like to see Guerin do? I Get it if you don’t know. We’re at a fragile spot

 

[AKL]

Then I hope the draft class is as good as you say.

4th is still better than 14th no matter how good the class is. That’s all I’m saying.

 

[TaLoN]

4th is still better than 14th no matter how good the class is. That’s all I’m saying.

4th is a tougher hole to climb out of than 14th.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

4th is a tougher hole to climb out of than 14th.

I’d argue that for this team, maybe not. Where else are we going to add talent? Picking 14th in the draft?

 

[TaLoN]

I’d argue that for this team, maybe not. Where else are we going to add talent? Picking 14th in the draft?

We have Kaprizov and Boldy in the system without a 4th.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

We have Kaprizov and Boldy in the system without a 4th.

We have Kaprizov and Boldy in the system even if we pick 4th. It’s unlikely that they move the need brought to win us a cup if we can’t get a long-term solution at center.

 

[Bazeek]

4th is a tougher hole to climb out of than 14th.

Especially if we're up against Detroit

I'm totally fine with the idea that the playoffs are slipping away from us and that turning attention toward the draft is going to make sense in the not-too-distant future. I'm totally fine with making moves that sacrifice the former for the latter, but I think there's a line between that and manufacturing a poor performance. I don't know that that's exactly what anyone here has in mind and I'm not trying to strawman anyone into it, it's just where the line is for me.

I can't get my head around taking that idea beyond the 2020 draft and rebuilding for multiple years though. Black Swans seem to be more rule than exception with drafting and development, so while I always hope for the best I have a very hard time counting on it.

 

[AKL]

We have Kaprizov and Boldy in the system without a 4th.

Doesn’t mean we should stop adding skill.

 

[TaLoN]

We have Kaprizov and Boldy in the system even if we pick 4th. It’s unlikely that they move the need brought to win us a cup if we can’t get a long-term solution at center.

I was just providing examples that show you don't need a 4th overall to get talent in the system.

I doubt we get that high of a pick this year anyway. We'll probably end up with a 7th or 8th at the highest.

We're bad, but not that bad.

Doesn’t mean we should stop adding skill.

... and I've never said otherwise.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

I was just providing examples that show you don't need a 4th overall to get talent in the system.

I doubt we get that high of a pick this year anyway. We'll probably end up with a 7th or 8th at the highest.

We're bad, but not that bad.

I see what you mean now, I misunderstood what you were saying originally. I doubt we get 4th OA either. That being said, I would wager that we will get a good player at 7/8. Plus, we’d have a 18ish percent chance of winning a lottery pick. I think Lundell has a floor of a 2C. Rossi I think would be a god-send, if he’s available. Stutzle I see some risk as there‘s not really a track-record with German hockey and he’s a raw player. Holtz, I think is a lock to be a 1RW. The draft might not solve our problems, but at the very least it will give us some talent and, more importantly, some hope.

 

[AKL]

As far as the turn around, let’s look at it this way.

Everyone here loves to point to Edmonton and Buffalo as what you turn into when you rebuild.

A vast majority of great teams are constructed in such a way that depth is added to a foundation of star players.

Buffalo and Edmonton have had poor management that has so far failed to do that.

The Wild HAVE that depth already, they’re just missig that star player.

Maybe Kaprizov becomes one. Maybe Boldy. Regardless of that, we have an opportunity this season to ad another potential star player.

Star players are typically found toward the top of the draft.

The higher our pick, the higher our chance to get a better player.

Add that better player to our already established depth, and you have a recipe for a potentially quicker turnaround than Buffalo or Edmonton.

That’s why Buffalo and Edmonton aren’t good comparisons for where we’re at.

That’s why we could potentially have a turnaround in just a couple years rather than a decade.

Nothing is guaranteed, but I hope this clears things up a little bit.

 

[Bazeek]

As far as the turn around, let’s look at it this way.

Everyone here loves to point to Edmonton and Buffalo as what you turn into when you rebuild.

A vast majority of great teams are constructed in such a way that depth is added to a foundation of star players.

Buffalo and Edmonton have had poor management that has so far failed to do that.

The Wild HAVE that depth already, they’re just missig that star player.

Maybe Kaprizov becomes one. Maybe Boldy. Regardless of that, we have an opportunity this season to ad another potential star player.

Star players are typically found toward the top of the draft.

The higher our pick, the higher our chance to get a better player.

Add that better player to our already established depth, and you have a recipe for a potentially quicker turnaround than Buffalo or Edmonton.

That’s why Buffalo and Edmonton aren’t good comparisons for where we’re at.

That’s why we could potentially have a turnaround in just a couple years rather than a decade.

Nothing is guaranteed, but I hope this clears things up a little bit.

I do think that ending up in 5+ year rebuilds requires a pretty healthy amount of incompetence from management. Not just bets not paying off, which I think is largely what happened with Fletcher, but management consistently having their heads up their butts for multiple seasons.

 

[torero]

Hello guys !
What happened with Nino.
I haven't seen games except tonight ... against Wash.
He wasn't scoring lately (this season)

And i was horrified by the last goal he scored against LA.
he gets a pass from Teravainen. He should shoot !! and instead of that, he passes the puck back to Teravainen (who is in a terrible situation to shoot .. unlike Nino) and Teravainen shoots ... but shoots on the goalie (normal in view of his position) ... then the puck arrives to Nino who burries it.
It screems that Nino lost confidence and is playing more for the others .. and too much. A scorer needs to be egoistic from time to time and shoot.
Am i correct ? did he loose confidence ?

 

[AKL]

I do think that ending up in 5+ year rebuilds requires a pretty healthy amount of incompetence from management. Not just bets not paying off, which I think is largely what happened with Fletcher, but management consistently having their heads up their butts for multiple seasons.

With a top 5-10 pick this season, maybe an extra late 1st as well, and guys like Kaprizov, Boldy, Khovanov, Beckman, Firstov possibly coming up in the next 5 years, it would either take an incredible amount of bad luck, or the most incompetent GM to ever walk the planet for this to turn into a 6 year rebuild or worse.