Confirmed Signing with Link: [MIN] D Brock Faber signs extension with the Wild (8 years, $8.5M AAV)

[Uberpecker]

Wow. Liked this guy and would love him on my team, but is he a bonafide #1 dman already. Because he sure is getting paid like one. Reminds me of the Power deal: Hefty, but could turn out great if everything works out.

 

[n8]

One season under his belt and he gets $8.5m per?

That is risky as heck

It's crazy risky to me. You are banking on him being a 70 point player and that is just to be AT value for that AAV. There is less than a 1% chance the Wild get better value than that AAV. If he's a career 50 point player, is that still go value? I guess the contract comparable would be Drew Doughty who signed 8x7 on his second contract. Good luck living up to that standard, kid.

 

[MXD]

Frankly, the only way this deal has any actual downside is if Faber slows down due to injuries.

The guy looked like prime McDonagh. Not like, I dunno, rookie Tyler Myers.

 

[dgibb10]

Frankly, the only way this deal has any actual downside is if Faber slows down due to injuries.

The guy looked like prime McDonagh. Not like, I dunno, rookie Tyler Myers.

He was not close to prime McDonagh.

 

[zar]

Seems like a bit of a gamble but it’s gambles like this that you have to take to have good players locked into team favorable contracts in order to win championships.

Is he Draisaitl or is he Nurse, that’s the question.

This contract is 4 RFA years and 4 UFA years.

 

[luiginb]

It's crazy risky to me. You are banking on him being a 70 point player and that is just to be AT value for that AAV. There is less than a 1% chance the Wild get better value than that AAV. If he's a career 50 point player, is that still go value? I guess the contract comparable would be Drew Doughty who signed 8x7 on his second contract. Good luck living up to that standard, kid.

Defenders need to defend, which Faber does great.

 

[Juxtaposer]

It's still a good deal considering the cap will almost certainly go up.

If Faber is the player he was last year then it’s absolutely worth it. Love the player. I just feel like this contract is crazy for a player with realistically one great season in his career. He wasn’t seen as a future #1D prior to this season, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that this season is a bit of an aberration.

 

[BlueOil]

i can't blame minny for being over-eager to lock him up long term. great looking player out there and i doubt this contract will be a problem long term

 

[ViD]

?
Skinner had two full seasons under his belt when he signed his first extension with Carolina, scoring 31 and 20 goals (paced for 25). Than Paced for 25 in the last year of his ELC in the lockout shortened season.

This referred to his outlier season that allowed him to sign an enormous contract by that time

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Don’t get it.

Will most likely be worth it

But If youre gonna lock him up that early, Wild shoulda gotten him at a lower number.

 

[Michoulicious]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1817976253518905753

Was a big fan of his in his draft year.

Looks like I was right that time, what a stud.

McAvoy 2.0 .

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Don’t get it.

Will most likely be worth it

But If youre gonna lock him up that early, Wild shoulda gotten him at a lower number.

His market was previously established with a barebones minimum of $8.05M per year. Add in cap increase and the fact he had a better year than Sanderson, and $8.5M is still probably a "discount".

 

[ThatGuy22]

This referred to his outlier season that allowed him to sign an enormous contract by that time

I fail to see how the Sabres being stupid 9 years into a players NHL career has to do with this Faber contract.

Skinner had a long track record of consistent performance, dependent basically soley on his shooting percentage. When he shot 10% he was between 25-30 goals, Higher he'd break 30. Lower he'd be between 20-25.

Too bad they didn't have a single person in their building suggest that he probably wasnt going to shoot 15% too many more times.

 

[P10p]

It's crazy risky to me. You are banking on him being a 70 point player and that is just to be AT value for that AAV. There is less than a 1% chance the Wild get better value than that AAV. If he's a career 50 point player, is that still go value? I guess the contract comparable would be Drew Doughty who signed 8x7 on his second contract. Good luck living up to that standard, kid.

Considering nothing but points to justify a contract for a d man, great take lol...

 

[MXD]

He was not close to prime McDonagh.

Which means, he was.

It's crazy risky to me. You are banking on him being a 70 point player and that is just to be AT value for that AAV. There is less than a 1% chance the Wild get better value than that AAV. If he's a career 50 point player, is that still go value? I guess the contract comparable would be Drew Doughty who signed 8x7 on his second contract. Good luck living up to that standard, kid.

Doughty signed a 7 X 8 deal when the cap was lower, so it doesn't quite compare.

Besides, I'm not sure raising what's ultimately a slight bargain contract (despite being higher in terms of %AAV than Faber) is quite the strong argument you think it is.

I mean, this isn't the Jake Sanderson deal. Sanderson needed to improve on what he did to be worth it. Meanwhile, Faber's last season is already a 8.5M season, or very close to that, he didn't achieve this the way players like Phaneuf and Myers did.

 

[BKarchitect]

People just pulling random numbers out their rear ends..."he has to score 70 points to be worth this".

He scored the 26th most points of any defensemen in the NHL, as a rookie, on a vanilla (to put it politely) offensive team, with limited PP time and with "point scoring" not even being remotely close to what he does best.

If it helps, think of it like this...he's getting paid $6.5 million long-term for being an awesome, awesome defensive defensemen with great wheels and incredible athletic stamina who will be your man in the highest leverage situations. He's getting an extra $1 million because he's in fact pretty damn great at putting up points...better than a ton of guys you may think are fancier. And he's getting that last $1 million AAV because that's just the surcharge to lock up a very young, core asset long term.

 

[Drake1588]

I don't get the criticism. This guy is special. The Wild are getting him at a currently just-shy-of-elite price and locking him in long term before salary inflation makes a player of his quality worth $10M+ at market rates. This contract will age very nicely.

The cap hikes this summer and next are going to have a long tail and really jack up wages. Locking up a player you believe in now is a very wise decision, if the player is game.

 

[dgibb10]

Which means, he was.


... This post presents a serious credibility risk.

McDonagh was a top 5 dman in hockey at his peak.

Faber played a lot of minutes, quite admirably. But he was NOT close to that.

He wasn't even better than current McDonagh.

People just pulling random numbers out their rear ends..."he has to score 70 points to be worth this".

He scored the 26th most points of any defensemen in the NHL, as a rookie, on a vanilla (to put it politely) offensive team, with limited PP time and with "point scoring" not even being remotely close to what he does best.

If it helps, think of it like this...he's getting paid $6.5 million long-term for being an awesome, awesome defensive defensemen with great wheels and incredible athletic stamina who will be your man in the highest leverage situations. He's getting an extra $1 million because he's in fact pretty damn great at putting up points...better than a ton of guys you may think are fancier. And he's getting that last $1 million AAV because that's just the surcharge to lock up a very young, core asset long term.

207 minutes on the PP is not "limited PP time"

 

[Dickie Dunn]

The people that hate this deal don’t follow the Wild or know the player.

 

[MXD]

McDonagh was a top 5 dman in hockey at his peak.

Faber played a lot of minutes, quite admirably. But he was NOT close to that.

Which means, he was close to that. It also means that McDonagh wasn't a Top-5 Man at his peak.

I don't get the criticism. This guy is special. The Wild are getting him at a currently just-shy-of-elite price and locking him in long term before salary inflation makes a player of his quality worth $10M+ at market rates. This contract will age very nicely.

The cap hikes this summer and next are going to have a long tail and really jack up wages. Locking up a player you believe in now is a very wise decision, if the player is game.

I mean, if he stays what he is... With the cap going up, he's worth it.

The people that hate this deal don’t follow the Wild or know the player.

I'd say they're just terrible users in general.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Playing the minutes and role he did as a rookie and thriving in them is insane. Just doesn't happen very often.

It's a big commitment definitely but you can see why the Wild are comfortable with it. Unless injuries hamper him he's going to be an effective top pairing D for all 8 years of that contract. I do believe it to be the correct strategy but seeing the kind of money these young guys while not having a huge sample size of proven play at this level to go off of will always leave me a bit perplexed. This guy has scored 47 career pts and just got 68 million more or less guaranteed. I wonder for some of these players if the motivation to improve suffers a bit.

That's a fair point.

He'll be 30 in the last year of this deal and if he plays well he can probably sign another 7-8 year deal worth $70+ million. I think the motivation to improve will be there, even if only for financial reasons. Which doesn't get into his competitive drive, he's a talented kid.

 

[BKarchitect]

McDonagh was a top 5 dman in hockey at his peak.

Faber played a lot of minutes, quite admirably. But he was NOT close to that.

He wasn't even better than current McDonagh.


207 minutes on the PP is not "limited PP time"

It's not close to what the top PP point compilers get. Regardless, it's not the "bulk" of why he's getting paid what he is. It's 30 seconds per game less than Jake Sanderson gets and Faber outscored him in all situations and very few people are freaking out that “Jake Sanderson doesn’t score enough points to be worth his long-term deal”.

 

[dgibb10]

Which means, he was close to that. It also means that McDonagh wasn't a Top-5 Man at his peak.

He was not close to that

He plays the same role peak mcdonagh did, but the results are not comparable.

Hence why he allowed goals at a rate significantly higher than any year of McDonagh's career, had a worse goal differential than any year of mcdonagh's career, and his underlying metrics are not even close to peak McDonaghs.

Faber was not good on the PK, not anything special on the PP.

Faber is playing a tough role, and holding his own.
McDonagh was playing a tough role, and completely and utterly dominating.

 

[MXD]

He was not close to that

Which means, he was.

 

[Drake1588]

I mean, if he stays what he is... With the cap going up, he's worth it.

I think we're really close to $8.5M being the going rate for a good No. 2, a good No. 1 being $10M, and an elite D being around $12M to $13M (ignoring the oddity that is Karlsson today; that's really rare) within 18 months or so.

He'll have to regress quite a bit for the player to break even on that contract. I think the team does very well out of the deal. It's not about dollars for the player. Faber gets to forego a typical bridged second contract and gets long-term stability in a place he's happy. He's knowingly giving up money for stability and that's a totally legitimate call. He's never going to have a sword hanging over him ever again, never has to sign another contract or perform to get that next deal, and that's worth a few million dollars to secure that peace of mind. The team makes out, though, no question.

I don't believe in teams gambling where the second contract is concerned with too many of their guys at once, but with special players it makes a lot of sense. You really have to guess right with your player, though.