I always prefer CH% to determine how much someone gets paid. Zibanejad's contract ends in 2022, which means they can start negotiating after July 1st 2021. We have 2 Cap increases between now and then. The Cap is at 81.5m at the moment. Assuming the same increase as 2016-17 and 2017-18 (the season before and after expansion), we get an increase of 2.74% this summer, followed by an increase of 6% the summer after the expansion. That leaves us with a salary cap in 2022-23 of $88,7500,000 (give or take a few buck).
Now, if we look at comparables, I think Tyler Seguin makes sense. Similar production, similar age, same role. And he got 12.39% with a full NMC throughout the contract. That comes down to $10,997,003, but I guess we can round that up to $11m.