Player Discussion Mika Zibanejad: Part II

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You've got to think one or both of Chytil and Kakko explode next year. My total gut feeling right now, but man if one or both of them and foxy take big steps next season we're going to be a fantastic team.

Chytil would be my pick.

He's been sooooo much better than his stat line would indicate. He's really close to being a nightmare for opponents.
 
Chytil would be my pick.

He's been sooooo much better than his stat line would indicate. He's really close to being a nightmare for opponents.

It's remarkable how far along he's come as he matures physically. He's got that drive in him that really shows out there too. Kid is going to be such a monster if he keeps the progression up.

Also: YEAH ZBAD KILL IT
 
Hope we have the money to keep him in two years. He’s going to get over 9M.

If he stays healthy, he'll easily get that or more.

Which is why we need to be very careful about managing our cap situation over the next 2 years. I know there's a ton of money coming off the books in this timeframe, but the 2023 offseason is going to be EXPENSIVE with Mika, Fox, and Kakko all up for new contracts - we're likely looking at at least a 15M incremental increase for just those 3.

The last thing we want is to be forced into making decisions we don't want to make, in order to keep these guys around (trading players we don't want to trade, signing the RFA's to a contract just to make it work with the cap), because of contracts we handed out to 2nd or 3rd tier players.
 
If he stays healthy, he'll easily get that or more.

Which is why we need to be very careful about managing our cap situation over the next 2 years. I know there's a ton of money coming off the books in this timeframe, but the 2023 offseason is going to be EXPENSIVE with Mika, Fox, and Kakko all up for new contracts - we're likely looking at at least a 15M incremental increase for just those 3.

The last thing we want is to be forced into making decisions we don't want to make, in order to keep these guys around (trading players we don't want to trade, signing the RFA's to a contract just to make it work with the cap), because of contracts we handed out to 2nd or 3rd tier players.

Sacrifices will have to be made for sure. Cross your fingers and hope that cap growth is bigger than expected (And I think its projected to be pretty significant.)
 
I don't know where he would rank amongst centers in the league, but Zibanejad is clearly top 10 and the best 20 ft player ever.

We have 5 players who are either currently "elite" or on the cusp of being there.

Panarin
Zibanejad
Fox
DeAngelo (this will draw the ire of some, but in terms of offensive production and transition, hes about as good as it gets in the league right now. Whats hes done with a boat anchor attached to him all season is remarkable.)
Shesty.

The sooner Kakko and Chytil can step into strong support roles for the top 6 (I'd argue Chytil is pretty much already there) the better. Kakko obviously has the potential to jump into the top group pretty quickly.

We aren't "close" to competing right now, but we've got a lot of the right pieces already. Lets hope that some of the other guys can catch up while the big 2 are still doing these kinds of things.
Our window will be f***in Grade A this time.

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Hopefully Mika will take a nice deal like Kreider did.

He might.

We just have to remember that if he stays at this level, that deal could still end being massive.

Right now he's producing at roughly a 50 goal, 100+ pace. If that keeps up over the remainder of his contract, we goin' be lookin' at a hell of a lot more than $6.5 annually.
 
Better allocate around 9-10M if he keeps this up tbh. They'd be hard pressed for him to sign for anything less.
 
He might.

We just have to remember that if he stays at this level, that deal could still end being massive.

Right now he's producing at roughly a 50 goal, 100+ pace. If that keeps up over the remainder of his contract, we goin' be lookin' at a hell of a lot more than $6.5 annually.
For sure, I meant market value or a smidge below, not $6.5M. Maybe $8.5-9.5M?
 
He'll be 29 I think? Is that correct?

If he's hovering around the 40-50 goal, 90-105 point level?

Yeah, I think this one has a shot to be an 8 figure deal, even with a discount.

I always prefer CH% to determine how much someone gets paid. Zibanejad's contract ends in 2022, which means they can start negotiating after July 1st 2021. We have 2 Cap increases between now and then. The Cap is at 81.5m at the moment. Assuming the same increase as 2016-17 and 2017-18 (the season before and after expansion), we get an increase of 2.74% this summer, followed by an increase of 6% the summer after the expansion. That leaves us with a salary cap in 2022-23 of $88,7500,000 (give or take a few buck).

Now, if we look at comparables, I think Tyler Seguin makes sense. Similar production, similar age, same role. And he got 12.39% with a full NMC throughout the contract. That comes down to $10,997,003, but I guess we can round that up to $11m.
 
I always prefer CH% to determine how much someone gets paid. Zibanejad's contract ends in 2022, which means they can start negotiating after July 1st 2021. We have 2 Cap increases between now and then. The Cap is at 81.5m at the moment. Assuming the same increase as 2016-17 and 2017-18 (the season before and after expansion), we get an increase of 2.74% this summer, followed by an increase of 6% the summer after the expansion. That leaves us with a salary cap in 2022-23 of $88,7500,000 (give or take a few buck).

Now, if we look at comparables, I think Tyler Seguin makes sense. Similar production, similar age, same role. And he got 12.39% with a full NMC throughout the contract. That comes down to $10,997,003, but I guess we can round that up to $11m.
Don't forget that the NHL will likely get a sizable increase on the next TV deal. Some estimates even have the next deal being double in value from the previous deal. That should help a lot in terms of cap jump.
 
Panarin may be a Hart candidate. But ZBad can well be the team's MVP and most important player right now.
 
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