McDavid v. Makar

[Romang67]

Goals are a small sample though. The possession metrics were heavily tilted to the Avs at roughly 60-40

Goals are indeed a small sample, but I would argue incredibly important to dominating a player in a series.

 

[Buck Naked]

You were literally shown that this take is wrong.

What!? You don't remember the famous pokecheck that won the entire series?!

 

[Regal]

While the two were on the ice McDavid's CF% was 55.15% in that series. When McDavid was not on the ice but Makar was the CF% for the Oilers was 28.85%. SCF 47 SCA 40, HDCF 21 HDCA 16. With the two on the ice the Oilers outscored the Avs 7-6. Which metrics are the ones you are using to show Makar's dominance? I am genuinely curious.

At ES against Makar, McDavid had a 44.8CF%, 41.8SF%, 45.5GF%, and 41.9xGF%.

At 5v5, McDavid had a 43.7CF%, 41.1SF%, 55.5GF%, and 46.3xGF%.

You’re using total minutes, which is skewed by PP time. Of course McDavid is going to dominate corsi in total ice time when he’s playing against Makar on the PP, but Makar doesn’t get to play against McDavid on the PP. Also of course the Oilers are going to have terrible possession numbers without McDavid when we’re including a large amount of their PK time but only a little of their PP time. The Oilers at ES and 5v5 with Makar on the ice but not McDavid put up similar possession numbers to when McDavid was on.

The Oilers scored one more goal than the Avs when both were in the ice 5v5, but goals are heavily influenced by variance over a small sample. The Avs dominated possession at ES and 5v5 when both were on the ice. I don’t think that means McDavid was dominated, because there’s a bunch of other players on the ice, but it’s certainly fair to say Makar was better that series.

Goals are indeed a small sample, but I would argue incredibly important to dominating a player in a series.

Eh, it matters, but is heavily influenced by goaltending. I mean, I wouldn’t say McDavid was dominated, because the Avs were that much better, and he’s one player, but the Avs were in general a much better team when both Makar and McDavid were on the ice at 5v5 and ES.

 

[Regal]

You were literally shown that this take is wrong.

By wrong stats. The Avs did dominate possession with Makar and McDavid on the ice.

 

[Romang67]

Eh, it matters, but is heavily influenced by goaltending. I mean, I wouldn’t say McDavid was dominated, because the Avs were that much better, and he’s one player, but the Avs were in general a much better team when both Makar and McDavid were on the ice at 5v5 and ES.

Goaltending, shot quality, and other things as well.

Yes, 9 goals is a very small sample to look at. So instead we're choosing to look at the grand total 119 Corsi events over the 4 game series?

You don't have the sample size to support the conclusions you're drawing.

 

[Fourier]

At ES against Makar, McDavid had a 44.8CF%, 41.8SF%, 45.5GF%, and 41.9xGF%.

At 5v5, McDavid had a 43.7CF%, 41.1SF%, 55.5GF%, and 46.3xGF%.

You’re using total minutes, which is skewed by PP time. Of course McDavid is going to dominate corsi in total ice time when he’s playing against Makar on the PP, but Makar doesn’t get to play against McDavid on the PP. Also of course the Oilers are going to have terrible possession numbers without McDavid when we’re including a large amount of their PK time but only a little of their PP time. The Oilers at ES and 5v5 with Makar on the ice but not McDavid put up similar possession numbers to when McDavid was on.

The Oilers scored one more goal than the Avs when both were in the ice 5v5, but goals are heavily influenced by variance over a small sample. The Avs dominated possession at ES and 5v5 when both were on the ice. I don’t think that means McDavid was dominated, because there’s a bunch of other players on the ice, but it’s certainly fair to say Makar was better that series.

Indeed I was mistakenly using All-situations. Thank you for pointing this out. I have delete my previous post to avoid misrepresenting the situation further.

You are also correct that possession numbers are complex. If you look at the time McDavid spent on the ice at 5 vs 5 vs Makar but without McKinnon, the CF% is still 46% but that is just 23 vs 27 with SCF being 13 vs 14 and HDCF being in McDavid's favour at 9 vs 8. Combining Makar with teh MacKinnon line is where the larger advantage was. And interestingly enough, Mackinnon without Makar had a 46.15% CF% vs McDavid.

This illustrates one of the challenges in using possession numbers over small samples to try to isolate individual players.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

 

[thadd]

LOL Makar is amazing... but JEEEEZ HFboards is really simping these days!

 

[Rengorlex]

At ES against Makar, McDavid had a 44.8CF%, 41.8SF%, 45.5GF%, and 41.9xGF%.

At 5v5, McDavid had a 43.7CF%, 41.1SF%, 55.5GF%, and 46.3xGF%.

Four-game sample is awfully small for on-ice metrics though especially with how large of an advantage Colorado had overall with Draisaitl and especially Nurse being so badly injured.

Here's how the microstat game score looked for that series. Microstat game score tracks individual metrics like zone entries, shot assists, high danger assists, high danger chances etc. It's not perfect, but it's hard to say that McDavid didn't show up for the Colorado series. It's one thing to say Makar had a better series, but McDavid wasn't bad at all.

 

[Regal]

Goaltending, shot quality, and other things as well.

Yes, 9 goals is a very small sample to look at. So instead we're choosing to look at the grand total 119 Corsi events over the 4 game series?

You don't have the sample size to support the conclusions you're drawing.

I mean, it’s small either way, but people are trying to argue that the goal total invalidates the possession stats, when there’s still far more events at play. I’m not drawing conclusions necessarily, just pointing out that the goals is only a part of the story.

Four-game sample is awfully small for on-ice metrics though especially with how large of an advantage Colorado had overall with Draisaitl and especially Nurse being so badly injured.

Here's how the microstat game score looked for that series. Microstat game score tracks individual metrics like zone entries, shot assists, high danger assists, high danger chances etc. It's not perfect, but it's hard to say that McDavid didn't show up for the Colorado series. It's one thing to say Makar had a better series, but McDavid wasn't bad at all.


View attachment 576948

Fair point. To be clear I’m not arguing McDavid was bad, he was good all playoffs, just a)clearing up the possession numbers, and b) arguing that, as you say, Makar might have had a better series, which in itself, is a small sample.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Not a knock on makar. Mcd is still the best player in the world

This.

Makar is amazing, but McDavid is undoubtedly the best player in the league, only one less year contract length, barely older.

This is an easy choice

 

[nbwingsfan]

Cups/ Conn Smythe
Makar 1 of each
Mcdavid 0
Norris 1 and second place not including rookie year.

Teammates:
Mackinnon
Landeskog
Rantannen
Kadri
Nicushkin
Toews
Byram
Girard

Teammates:
Draisaitl
Kane (for half a year)
RNH
Hyman
Nurse??
Smith???

Yeah, Cups isn’t an argument here

 

[nbwingsfan]

Nonsense.

The Oilers have plenty of quality pieces around McDavid. This narrative that the Oilers don’t have a supporting cast around him is false.

Just completely taking away any credit from Makar in driving his team to a Stanley Cup is just silly too. That’s literally the goal of playing the sport. It was one of the all-time great playoff performances by a defenceman.

And McDavid just led the entire playoffs in scoring without even making it to the finals and only playing in 16 games… what exactly do you think he was doing?

 

[nbwingsfan]

Goals are a small sample though. The possession metrics were heavily tilted to the Avs at roughly 60-40

The whole damn sample of 4 games is small.

McDavid has finished 1st or second in PPG every single season since his rookie year. Just put up a near historic post season, scoring over 2ppg.

I really don’t like the oilers, but I really want to see them win a Cup just to see what kind of absolute nonsense McDavid haters (almost entirely Tor/Cal/Pit fans) can come up with next.

 

[WarriorOfGandhi]

Did Justin Williams dominate mcdavid head to head in a series while winning the Smythe with the best playoff by a d man in say 30 years?

Yes

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

And McDavid just led the entire playoffs in scoring without even making it to the finals and only playing in 16 games… what exactly do you think he was doing?

I never said he didn’t play great in the playoffs. He was fantastic.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I never said he didn’t play great in the playoffs. He was fantastic.

You kept talking about it being an “all time great performance” by Makar but it was also, arguably more so, one for McDavid too.

Add on his regular season resume and there shouldn’t be an argument that McDavid is the best player in the world.

Makar is my #2, but there is a gap.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

You kept talking about it being an “all time great performance” by Makar but it was also, arguably more so, one for McDavid too.

Add on his regular season resume and there shouldn’t be an argument that McDavid is the best player in the world.

Makar is my #2, but there is a gap.

I mean, if you don’t even make the finals, nobody gives a shit.

Of course McDavid was fantastic, but it wasn’t an all-time great playoff like Makar’s.

 

[McVespa99]

I mean, if you don’t even make the finals, nobody gives a shit.

Of course McDavid was fantastic, but it wasn’t an all-time great playoff like Makar’s.

I dont think I will trade McDavid for Makar so there is my answer

 

[Coffey]

The whole damn sample of 4 games is small.

McDavid has finished 1st or second in PPG every single season since his rookie year. Just put up a near historic post season, scoring over 2ppg.

I really don’t like the oilers, but I really want to see them win a Cup just to see what kind of absolute nonsense McDavid haters (almost entirely Tor/Cal/Pit fans) can come up with next.

Lol love that you added Pit

Crosby stans are something else

 

[Regal]

The whole damn sample of 4 games is small.

McDavid has finished 1st or second in PPG every single season since his rookie year. Just put up a near historic post season, scoring over 2ppg.

I really don’t like the oilers, but I really want to see them win a Cup just to see what kind of absolute nonsense McDavid haters (almost entirely Tor/Cal/Pit fans) can come up with next.

Not every point in a player’s favour is necessarily tied into a larger argument. The sample is small and who is better in a playoff series isn’t the be all. But if the discussion is focused on a playoff series, it’s fair to point out that goals tend to be less relevant than possession stats due to variance.

 

[missionAvs]

I think both McJesus and Makar are the best at their respective positions. McJesus, IMO, has a larger gap between him and whoever is at 2 (likely Matthews) than Makar. I think McJesus is #1 still which is not a slight against Makar who I believe is the #2 guy in the league overall behind him.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I mean, if you don’t even make the finals, nobody gives a shit.

Of course McDavid was fantastic, but it wasn’t an all-time great playoff like Makar’s.

Led the playoffs in scoring only playing 16 games, over 2ppg… yeah that’s absolutely an all time great performance. Nothing he could realistically do could of brought Edmonton to the Cup.

Lol love that you added Pit

Crosby stans are something else

It’s really really strange how offended and mad they are that there’s a player out there that might be better than Crosby is/was.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Not every point in a player’s favour is necessarily tied into a larger argument. The sample is small and who is better in a playoff series isn’t the be all. But if the discussion is focused on a playoff series, it’s fair to point out that goals tend to be less relevant than possession stats due to variance.

What would you rather in a playoff series:
The guy who scored more goals
The guy who possessed the puck more

Seems an easy answer to me

 

[tacogeoff]

Landslide for mcjesus as expected and deserved.

 

[McRpro]

Another fan making an absolute fool of himself.

Lock this lopsided poll up.