McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

[MessierThanThou]

It will rank better than any non Gretzky/Lemieux/Orr season. Without a doubt.

Espo had 76 goals and 151 points in 70-71..but that was also an Orr season, and most of those goals came from Orr assists. Espo before Orr broke out was still a 120-point player though, which not a lot of people realize.

I think how it compares to the best of Howe will be interesting. Howe had a more dominant finish relative to peers, but there’s more competition from a 32 team league.

I remember going through the adjusted stats for Howe, and adding more games with his adjusted points per game to see how he fared, and he only had one season remotely close to Gretz or Lemieux's best years...even with all of their numbers adjusted to be fair. His longevity and sustained dominance is undoubtedly impressive, but I think he's unfairly ranked ahead of Lemieux and Orr on most of those Greatest Players lists.

Also, yeah, the Original Six era is hard to rate, as even Hall of Fame calibre players like Johnny Bower languished in the minors for far too long because there were only so many available roster spots.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

I remember before Crosby got drafted when Gretzky was quoted saying that if anyone breaks his records it would be him. And obviously that was never going to realistically happen from a pure statistics standpoint, but you still couldn’t help but wonder what anything near that level of dominance would look like - especially as someone who was too young to watch/appreciate 99 or 66 at their best. And while this still isn’t quite close to Gretzky or Mario’s dominance, it does help answer that question and dear lord is it fun to watch.

During the shortened season I said he was probably the best player that I’ve ever gotten to see. Last postseason I was convinced of that statement. And now this season there’s simply no denying that statement. Jagr, Crosby, Ovechkin, etc were all special and all timers, but this is different. Dude just looks like he belongs a different league.

 

[koyvoo]

Eagerly waiting to hear what this dude has to say. Not sure why he's been so quiet?:

"McDavid Slowing Down"

In around the start of that thread the OP specifically used Jason Robertson, who was like 1 point behind McDavid, and in the middle of a hotter stretch, as an example of McDavid not being dominant. Even suggested Robertson was about to pass McDavid.

At that time McDavid and Robertson were level on points. Today, McDavid is 45 points ahead of Robertson.

That’s no knock on Robertson, of course, it just illustrates (to the blind, I guess) McDavid’s dominance.

 

[Fourier]

Well if that's the case then McDavid should be playing with 4th liners. Oilers would have crazy depth.

He often does. The Oiler have run an 11-7 much of the year, plus they have had injuries on the wing.

 

[Calderon]

I think how it compares to the best of Howe will be interesting. Howe had a more dominant finish relative to peers, but there’s more competition from a 32 team league.

Howe was quite dominant in his era but what makes it hard to appreciate him, at least at a quick glance, is that he played most of his career — all his prime basically — in a 70-game schedule yet didn't manage to crack 100 points or 50 goals even once. That's not a great look for a top4 GOAT.

Due to his magnificent longevity he did manage to get a fantastic 103 point season as a 41-year-old in 76 games.

By certain calculations regarding scoring levels and VsXth you can assess how his peak compares to McDavid's 140-160 points this season. I'm guessing not that favorably.

 

[JackSlater]

I think how it compares to the best of Howe will be interesting. Howe had a more dominant finish relative to peers, but there’s more competition from a 32 team league.

If he keeps things reasonably similar to where they are now I think he has to go ahead of Howe's peak. Howe obliterated the field more than any non-Gretzky/Lemieux/Orr ever did, but his situation was more favourable than McDavid's playing with Lindsay, Abel/Delvecchio, plus Kelly against the NHL of the early 1950s. Even then, McDavid is on pace to outscore his nearest non-teammate by 34%. Howe's best was 55%. Regardless of where it ranks he's been extremely fun to watch.

 

[BallardEra]

Insane that McDavid is on pace for 157 points this season.

If he "slumps" to only point per game for the 19 remaining games, he'll finish with 140 points.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Howe was quite dominant in his era but what makes it hard to appreciate him, at least at a quick glance, is that he played most of his career — all his prime basically — in a 70-game schedule yet didn't manage to crack 100 points or 50 goals even once. That's not a great look for a top4 GOAT.

Due to his magnificent longevity he did manage to get a fantastic 103 point season as a 41-year-old in 76 games.

By certain calculations regarding scoring levels and VsXth you can assess how his peak compares to McDavid's 140-160 points this season. I'm guessing not that favorably.

Howe played in an incredibly low scoring era.

In his 4 year peak, no non linemate hit 70 points. Howe hit 80 points 4 times including a 90 point season. When he hit 86 points in 1952 that was the all time NHL record. He hit 95 the next year.

Howe was 41 years old the first time anyone hit 100 points. It was Esposito, about 3 weeks before Howe also hit 100 points.

Howe was 34 years old in the first non war 50 goal season.

Scoring didn't increase in the NHL until Howe was in his late 20s, with it being very low from ages 22-26. It didn't spike until he was in his 40s.

His VsX7 score is third all time

Wayne Gretzky 155.6
Phil Esposito 130.4
Gordie Howe 125.5
Mario Lemieux 119.8
Bobby Orr 114.8

McDavid sits at 104.5 at the end of the 2022 season. If season ended today he would spike to 118.2.

If you go by best 10 years, he jumps ahead of Esposito.

Howe is unquestionably a top 4 player of all time.

That McDavid is approaching his prime is spectacular. We don't need to dismiss Howe's accomplishments to boost McDavid.

 

[jigglysquishy]

McDavid sits at 7th in points since 1997 for a single season. He is only 8 points away from claiming first. It is guaranteed at this point, just how far ahead of Kucherov does he get.

12th in goals. 25th in assists. I don't think he hits first in either, but 2nd in goals, 3rd in assists is absolutely in play.

 

[Mulletman]

McDavid sits at 7th in points since 1997 for a single season. He is only 8 points away from claiming first. It is guaranteed at this point, just how far ahead of Kucherov does he get.

12th in goals. 25th in assists. I don't think he hits first in either, but 2nd in goals, 3rd in assists is absolutely in play.

Why are you bringing up 1997?! We should be talking all time here! Don't diminish what McDavid is doing this year! McDavid's season right now is ranked 80th all time, tied with 2000-01 Jaromir Jagr who also had 52+69=121 points. With a super hot last 19 games, McDavid could possibly end up as high as 10th on the all time list, surpassing 1980-81 Wayne Gretzky.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Why are you bringing up 1997?! We should be talking all time here! Don't diminish what McDavid is doing this year! McDavid's season right now is ranked 80th all time, tied with 2000-01 Jaromir Jagr who also had 52+69=121 points. With a super hot last 19 games, McDavid could possibly end up as high as 10th on the all time list, surpassing 1980-81 Wayne Gretzky.

1996 was the last year anyone hit 130 points. Or 140 points. Or 150 points. Or 160 points. It was always going to be the benchmark year. And it's still unlikely he gets more points than Lemieux had that year.

McDavid is likely to hit 150 now, but 160 is not realistic.

 

[Evilsports]

I thought McD's production would dip with Barrie gone, but he's had six points in two games since he left. It's not inconceivable for McDavid to break 160, and if he somehow gets 162...that will be the most points anyone has scored in a single season since the f***ing 80s: 1988-89!!! (when Mario had 199)

Wayne had 163 in 1990-1991.

I'd like to see McDavid get 156. That'd at least put him in the most elite of company. In the history of the league 156+ points has only ever been done by Mario or Wayne, a combined 13 times!

 

[norrisnick]

66+ and 156+ would be divine.

Can’t wait until the dust settles so we can figure out where this season ranks all-time.

64 and 154, plz. Let Yzerman have that one thing.

 

[cupface52]

Howe played in an incredibly low scoring era.

In his 4 year peak, no non linemate hit 70 points. Howe hit 80 points 4 times including a 90 point season. When he hit 86 points in 1952 that was the all time NHL record. He hit 95 the next year.

Howe was 41 years old the first time anyone hit 100 points. It was Esposito, about 3 weeks before Howe also hit 100 points.

Howe was 34 years old in the first non war 50 goal season.

Scoring didn't increase in the NHL until Howe was in his late 20s, with it being very low from ages 22-26. It didn't spike until he was in his 40s.

His VsX7 score is third all time

Wayne Gretzky 155.6
Phil Esposito 130.4
Gordie Howe 125.5
Mario Lemieux 119.8
Bobby Orr 114.8

McDavid sits at 104.5 at the end of the 2022 season. If season ended today he would spike to 118.2.

If you go by best 10 years, he jumps ahead of Esposito.

Howe is unquestionably a top 4 player of all time.

That McDavid is approaching his prime is spectacular. We don't need to dismiss Howe's accomplishments to boost McDavid.

I don't know much about hockey history, but wasn't talent abnormally weak in the early/mid 50's? Not a knock on Howe, genuine question.

There was Lindsay, then you had Richard past his prime, you had Beliveau just starting to break out and just before Mikita and Hull entered the league.

I don't think a 30% point lead above your competition then is the same as today, especially when the majority of elite(top 10) players are European or American. Just like I also don't think a top 5 scoring finish is the same in 1952 as it is in 2023.

 

[Video Nasty]

Howe played in an incredibly low scoring era.

In his 4 year peak, no non linemate hit 70 points. Howe hit 80 points 4 times including a 90 point season. When he hit 86 points in 1952 that was the all time NHL record. He hit 95 the next year.

Howe was 41 years old the first time anyone hit 100 points. It was Esposito, about 3 weeks before Howe also hit 100 points.

Howe was 34 years old in the first non war 50 goal season.

Scoring didn't increase in the NHL until Howe was in his late 20s, with it being very low from ages 22-26. It didn't spike until he was in his 40s.

His VsX7 score is third all time

Wayne Gretzky 155.6
Phil Esposito 130.4
Gordie Howe 125.5
Mario Lemieux 119.8
Bobby Orr 114.8

McDavid sits at 104.5 at the end of the 2022 season. If season ended today he would spike to 118.2.

If you go by best 10 years, he jumps ahead of Esposito.

Howe is unquestionably a top 4 player of all time.

That McDavid is approaching his prime is spectacular. We don't need to dismiss Howe's accomplishments to boost McDavid.

I don’t know how you keep up this energy. I’m already sick to death again of trying to explain Howe just from making a few posts this week.

Nice work adding the additional context of how 1968-1969 was the first season any player ever crossed the 100 point threshold.

I’m so thankful for that season because I think it’s one that really makes people stop and think about when they learn the details.

 

[Matias Maccete]

I hope he hits yet another gear and finishes 2ppg. It seems like he took his level of play from last year's playoffs(which is the most dominant single player performance I've ever seen) and decided to just keep going at that pace.

 

[jigglysquishy]

I don’t know how you keep up this energy. I’m already sick to death again of trying to explain Howe just from making a few posts this week.

Nice work adding the additional context of how 1968-1969 was the first season any player ever crossed the 100 point threshold.

I’m so thankful for that season because I think it’s one that really makes people stop and think about when they learn the details.

If you look at the ages it really stands out.

Game 60 - Esposito hits 100 points
Game 69 - Hull hits 100 points
Game 76 - Howe hits 100

Esposito was 27
Hull was 30
Howe was 41

We can look at the 1974 Summit Series too, when a 46 year old Howe was Canada's second best player (behind Hull) against the Soviet Union.

 

[innitfam]

We’re probably at about that point where we’ll look back when the season is over and note that this is when McDavid had the Art Ross won if he were to sit out the remaining schedule.

If 121 points doesn’t do it, it’s close (Drai is on pace for 122 in 80 games and Kucherov 117 in 82 games).

To continue the tradition:

Needs 9 points in final 19 games to hit 130 points.
Needs 19 points in final 19 games to hit 140 points.
Needs 29 points in final 19 games to hit 150 points.

And now…needs 39 points in final 19 games to hit 160.

Damn.

But he'll barely crack 130 though.

 

[JackSlater]

I don't know much about hockey history, but wasn't talent abnormally weak in the early/mid 50's? Not a knock on Howe, genuine question.

There was Lindsay, then you had Richard past his prime, you had Beliveau just starting to break out and just before Mikita and Hull entered the league.

I don't think a 30% point lead above your competition then is the same as today, especially when the majority of elite(top 10) players are European or American. Just like I also don't think a top 5 scoring finish is the same in 1952 as it is in 2023.

Somewhat weak in the early 1950s yeah, but a lot stronger by the mid to late 1950s. In Howe's most impressive season he outscored his highest non-linemate (Richard) by 56%. He outscored the league's tenth place scorer by 116%. You'd obviously make adjustments if trying to compare it to today but it's almost certainly the most impressive scoring season by a forward outside of Gretzky and Lemieux, and McDavid could end up with a very good argument for having a better season. Howe's season was 70 games as well, so McDavid is close to having played that many games already.

 

[thewave]

Wayne had 163 in 1990-1991.

I'd like to see McDavid get 156. That'd at least put him in the most elite of company. In the history of the league 156+ points has only ever been done by Mario or Wayne, a combined 13 times!

McDavid is a Wayne / Mario class of player. Jagr did 149 in the mid 90's which is when scoring got harder as well. He is in the top bracket for sure though.

 

[Aaaaaaaaaaaaa]

I don't know much about hockey history, but wasn't talent abnormally weak in the early/mid 50's? Not a knock on Howe, genuine question.

In the years during and after WWII, there were fewer young men focusing on hockey in Canada, as to be expected. So yes, there was a somewhat smaller talent pool during that time.

 

[North Cole]

What will help him reach a higher amount of points is if the Oilers keep having to fight for their playoff spot. The moment they clinch, he might be scratched or just play with less motivation.

I actually don't think so. I think McDavid will take one maintenance game max. He seems like the kind of player that wants to be in game situations to stay sharp and not risk taking time off and cooling down. The whole team kind of came back from the All Star break looking like shit, yes there was a flu or something but outside of that they were noticeably lethargic.

 

[Aaaaaaaaaaaaa]

What will help him reach a higher amount of points is if the Oilers keep having to fight for their playoff spot. The moment they clinch, he might be scratched or just play with less motivation.

Doubt it. He's 26, in the prime of his life, and this isn't about winning an Art Ross or Hart anymore. Those are wrapped up. He's playing for legacy and his place in hockey history now. I can see him sitting a game or two if he has a nagging injury, but they won't sit him if he is healthy. No way he would be okay with that this year.

 

[The Panther]

161 points in his last 82 NHL games, counting playoffs. Yeah, that's not bad.

Incidentally, here's how McDavid's current pace this year compares to some early- and late-prime Gretzky and Lemieux seasons (not their peak seasons, mind you):

Gretzky 1988-89
138 PTS in 63 games
Lemieux 1987-88
132 PTS in 63 games
Lemieux 1991-92
130 PTS in 63 games
Gretzky1990-91
129 PTS in 63 games
Gretzky1989-90
122 PTS in 63 games
Gretzky1980-81
121 PTS in 63 games
McDavid 2022-23
121 PTS in 63 games
Lemieux 1985-86
120 PTS in 63 games
Lemieux 1986-87
107 PTS in 63 games
Lemieux 1996-97
104 PTS in 63 games

Remember when this was considered impossible... like, 5 years ago?

 

[VainGretzky]

If you look at the ages it really stands out.

Game 60 - Esposito hits 100 points
Game 69 - Hull hits 100 points
Game 76 - Howe hits 100

Esposito was 27
Hull was 30
Howe was 41

We can look at the 1974 Summit Series too, when a 46 year old Howe was Canada's second best player (behind Hull) against the Soviet Union.

You are leaving such a big detail with that was the year the league went from 6 to 14 teams and was watered down by less talent on defense and goaltending