McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

[CokenoPepsi]

He currently has 46 points in 25 games with a period and a bit to go tonight.

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[Sasha Orlov]

From what I’ve seen so far there’s a good chance he hits it tonight

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

+650

 

[Turin]

How many power plays is he gonna get tonight?

 

[Arthur Morgan]

alot has to go right but he's good enough it's possible but hes bound to have some pointless games that will make him fall short. be cool to see been a while since we seen a 150 point player

 

[Dust]

I think while 150 is certainly possible for him, it's not likely. Though if Edmonton hovers around the wild card spots, he may have no choice but to go wild and carry that team in.

 

[jigglysquishy]

For the record, he had 45 in 25 last year. Ended with 123 in 80.

 

[Dust]

For the record, he had 45 in 25 last year. Ended with 123 in 80.

His career splits are lowest in December/January, makes sense. Imagine being able to only be a 1.25 and 1.28ppg in your slumps

 

[Arpeggio]

I think it'll come down to how long Kane is out for. His pace with Kane in the lineup, including the playoffs, is way up there. Right now they're basically rolling with one good line, so he'll get all the tough matchups at home and away (+play 25 mins a night), whereas when they can balance the lines, he can get more favorable matchups at home.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

How many power plays is he gonna get tonight?

It depends, how many more dives will he make tonight, my god he should apply to the national swim team.

 

[Rengorlex]

If they keep stacking the top line he can definitely hit it. He was on a 154 point pace in the shortened season when he and Draisaitl spend about half of their 5vs5 minutes together. Last season they didn't play together at evens so his pace was lower since there was nobody to finish the chances McDavid was generating.

 

[Video Nasty]

11 points in past 4 games since that clown posted about him losing his touch.

Definitely would like to see him get 140-150 points on the season to see how the detractors would spin it without the COVID division schedule excuse to use as ammo.

It would be helpful for his pace when he goes 4-6 games at “just” 1 PPG to notch a few 5 or 6 point nights.

 

[ricky0034]

the scary thing is he's basically been a 150 point player for a few years now if not for a bit of bad luck last regular season

if you adjust his on ice shooting percentage last year to his average of the two years before it+ this year then he would have had an extra 23 points

which would put his last 3 years(regular season+Playoffs) at 334 points in 181 games

 

[Arpeggio]

the scary thing is he's basically been a 150 point player for a few years now if not for a bit of bad luck last regular season

if you adjust his on ice shooting percentage last year to his average of the two years before it+ this year then he would have had an extra 23 points

which would put his last 3 years(regular season+Playoffs) at 334 points in 181 games

It would be really cool to see everything come together for him in one of the next 2-3 seasons. Like high shooting percentage, high teammate shooting percentage, healthy wingers, good puck moving defence behind him. I just want that one season where he puts up 60+ goals and 160+ points, because that would really be something we might not see again for 20-30 years.

 

[Dust]

I think the wildest thing I came to realize today, is that McDavid is only 73 career points behind Marchand now. Marchand is a helluva player too, he's had Hart votes in 5 of the seasons since McDavid joined the league.

 

[DrDangles]

His powerplay point % is way above his career average right now, I expect that to cool off quite a bit as we get deeper into the season.

If anybody can hit 150 it's him, but I really doubt 150 points is possible for anybody in the modern era.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

It depends, how many more dives will he make tonight, my god he should apply to the national swim team.

Why? The national swimming team isn't known for their diving ability. That would be the diving team. What a strange comment.

 

[Sorry]

Under.

 

[majormajor]

Not good odds. He has always looked a bit more human in the middle months of the season.

If he plays with Drai and Hyman the whole time then I think he'd hit it but he's not usually with Drai for long.

 

[ole ole]

Where's that poster that cried about McDavid slowing down?

You mean that ........fan. Ya i would never bet against the best player in the league .

 

[Montreal Shadow]

Nah and he won't sniff 150pts. Isn't it this the third time he has a crazy pace to start the season and people start 150pts thread?

His ceiling is 130-135 and that's as many as a player can get in the modern era. No one touches 150.

 

[BallardEra]

He had 105 points in 56 games during the 2020-21 season which is a 154 pace over 82 games.

Second place finisher was 21 points behind him and third place was 36 points.

I think 140+ points is possible for him this season if he plays all 82 games.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Assuming he misses no games, my model gives McDavid the following probabilities:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]

120​

[/TD]

[TD]

99.4%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

130​

[/TD]

[TD]

90.5%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

140​

[/TD]

[TD]

58.0%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

150​

[/TD]

[TD]

21.6%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

160​

[/TD]

[TD]

4.2%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

And if he misses five games (but otherwise plays at his full potential):

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]

120​

[/TD]

[TD]

93.4%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

130​

[/TD]

[TD]

63.6%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

140​

[/TD]

[TD]

23.6%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

150​

[/TD]

[TD]

4.3%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

160​

[/TD]

[TD]

0.4%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

We're one-third of the way through this season, and McDavid actually has a reasonable chance of reaching 150 points. It's only about 22%, and that's only if he stays healthy, but it's incredible to see such a high probability this far into the season.

 

[winnipegger]

The Oilers remind me so much of the Ovi Caps circa 2009. During the regular season they are an unstoppable scoring machine. Playoffs roll around and lack of depth kills them.

 

[MCR74]

150 point regular season and Jack Campbell in net for the playoffs. Do the math.