Maurice vindicated?

[Flair Hay]

 

[AlphaLackey]

Happy for Cooper, but realistically he was riding a hot goalie. It was his best chance at multiple cups and it did wonders for his legacy.

Vasi's Goals saved above expected per 60, playoff years:
2019-2020: 0.724
2020-2021: 1.149

Bobrovky's GSAA/60, playoff years:
2022-2023: 1.318

Other key difference: Vasi is a very good goalie who may have highrolled a little bit; Bobrovsky is a below average goalie who is highrolling like a madman. Vasi is the old-school local semi-pro getting an extra break in a hand here or there, Bob's the drunk rec player jamming at most every pot and simply outdrawing every single made hand that calls him.

 

[AlphaLackey]

I hope I've made it crystal clear that I've never once criticized the caliber of human being that Paul Maurice is, and in fact, have repeatedly made the opposite clear -- that he's a very good one. Not gonna lie, I got a smile on my face when Florida won that 3rd round, and Maurice celebrated by giving Compon a rabbit-punch in the ribs. Maybe it's a 'stereotypical guy' thing, but that objectively violent act (which I'm sure didn't exactly tickle!) communicated nothing but pent-up excitement and happiness and joy.

And so, I'll say it again, just to be clear: any criticism I have about Maurice's ability as a coach doesn't detract from the fact that he's an outstanding human being, and in a sport rife with people who make us say "ugh, even though he's an asshole, he's a really good player" ('for all values of Kane', as my old math prof would say), it's honestly really refreshing to be able to say the opposite.

And as I know I've also said: even the good guys are allowed to get lucky now and then. One should never feel guilty about getting lucky breaks. And maybe there's just a little more charm left in the tanks.

No, I'm not betraying my principles. It is absolutely the case that Florida is not 'blessed', they are not 'destined', they don't have angels on their shoulders. Nor am I saying that they are.

But here's the thing: *they* think they are. Surely, they do. And more importantly, both Vegas and Dallas must surely *also* think Florida is blessed. Using my favorite metaphor, Florida is in full-on giant-slayer mode.

And to THAT aspect, an aspect Maurice is surely fostering among his players, the man deserves credit. Even if he's not as much "the man that steers the ship" as "the straw that stirs the drink", he's doing what he knows best.

And he's doing it well enough that he's convinced me to bet actual money on his team's chances of success.

And from me, there's no higher compliment I could pay the man

Alright, enough of my mawkish drivel, further posts on Maurice will return to the "low-tier, high-rolling lucksack" angle you've known so well.

 

[bennylundholm]

Vasi's Goals saved above expected per 60, playoff years:
2019-2020: 0.724
2020-2021: 1.149

Bobrovky's GSAA/60, playoff years:
2022-2023: 1.318

Other key difference: Vasi is a very good goalie who may have highrolled a little bit; Bobrovsky is a below average goalie who is highrolling like a madman. Vasi is the old-school local semi-pro getting an extra break in a hand here or there, Bob's the drunk rec player jamming at most every pot and simply outdrawing every single made hand that calls him.

Bobrovsky ain't no below average goalie. He's been very good throughout his career.
Maurice must be elated to finally have a group of players who put on the big boy pants when the pressure is on.
The opposite of what he had in Winnipeg.
55 who lets his team down repeatedly with missed assignments, weak defensive play, no hitting, etc.
81 who plays on the perimeter.
26 who avoids contact.
80 who disappears.
Etc.

If Chevy brings back 55 and 26 we are toast. These 2 have to go.

 

[LowLefty]

I hope I've made it crystal clear that I've never once criticized the caliber of human being that Paul Maurice is, and in fact, have repeatedly made the opposite clear -- that he's a very good one. Not gonna lie, I got a smile on my face when Florida won that 3rd round, and Maurice celebrated by giving Compon a rabbit-punch in the ribs. Maybe it's a 'stereotypical guy' thing, but that objectively violent act (which I'm sure didn't exactly tickle!) communicated nothing but pent-up excitement and happiness and joy.

And so, I'll say it again, just to be clear: any criticism I have about Maurice's ability as a coach doesn't detract from the fact that he's an outstanding human being, and in a sport rife with people who make us say "ugh, even though he's an asshole, he's a really good player" ('for all values of Kane', as my old math prof would say), it's honestly really refreshing to be able to say the opposite.

And as I know I've also said: even the good guys are allowed to get lucky now and then. One should never feel guilty about getting lucky breaks. And maybe there's just a little more charm left in the tanks.

No, I'm not betraying my principles. It is absolutely the case that Florida is not 'blessed', they are not 'destined', they don't have angels on their shoulders. Nor am I saying that they are.

But here's the thing: *they* think they are. Surely, they do. And more importantly, both Vegas and Dallas must surely *also* think Florida is blessed. Using my favorite metaphor, Florida is in full-on giant-slayer mode.

And to THAT aspect, an aspect Maurice is surely fostering among his players, the man deserves credit. Even if he's not as much "the man that steers the ship" as "the straw that stirs the drink", he's doing what he knows best.

And he's doing it well enough that he's convinced me to bet actual money on his team's chances of success.

And from me, there's no higher compliment I could pay the man

Alright, enough of my mawkish drivel, further posts on Maurice will return to the "low-tier, high-rolling lucksack" angle you've known so well.

Nice post -
The part that we don't talk about much is how much of an impact is there from a coach that knows how to communicate?
How much of an impact does a guy like this have on a goaltender who was struggling?
Many are calling out goaltending as the difference in this series - and that's hard to argue. But did Mo play a role in getting this guys game to super human levels?
Wouldn't surprise me.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Bobrovsky ain't no below average goalie. He's been very good throughout his career.
Maurice must be elated to finally have a group of players who put on the big boy pants when the pressure is on.
The opposite of what he had in Winnipeg.
55 who lets his team down repeatedly with missed assignments, weak defensive play, no hitting, etc.
81 who plays on the perimeter.
26 who avoids contact.
80 who disappears.
Etc.

If Chevy brings back 55 and 26 we are toast. These 2 have to go.

Bobrovski entered the playoffs .901 in a season's worth of playoff games, and .901 in this regular season. He's well past his prime. How many "worst contracts in the NHL" lists have Bobrovsky near-if-not-at the top?

He had some good years. The man that started this season was a significantly below-average goalie on an albatross contract, a contract that frankly afforded him more last chances than his play warranted.

But even a Bob-level goalie can high-roll like mad in a short spurt, and he clearly has.

Surely, you'd agree that cup-winning-Vasi is just flat-out much better than 2022-23 Bob?

 

[Leafsfan74]

He was always a good coach, I saw his methods in Tor to, which have changed sonewhat with his current personnel but he was.always a fine coach.

Coaches are responsible for what? 10, 20 maybe 25% of the games outcome? The players win or lose every game if they show up or refuse to.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Nice post -
The part that we don't talk about much is how much of an impact is there from a coach that knows how to communicate?
How much of an impact does a guy like this have on a goaltender who was struggling?
Many are calling out goaltending as the difference in this series - and that's hard to argue. But did Mo play a role in getting this guys game to super human levels?
Wouldn't surprise me.

Maybe he did. Maybe he also just kept flinging mud at the wall waiting for some of it to stick? I don't think Bobrovsky right now is objectively better than Bobrovsky at the start of the year. But again, if he believes he is, and the opponents believe he is, that almost matters more.

Like, even if you could boil a coach's ability down to some "with-or-without-you, wins-above-expected" scalar variable, that number is still a total sum of positive and negative aspects, yeah? And while I don't think Mo 'flipped a switch', he easily could have kept Bob positive enough to make the most of his lucky streak. Because that's one of the things that he's good at. If that makes sense?

Think of how in poker, really, the one and only thing that separates good player from not-good player is that good player mines more out of their good luck and loses less out of their bad luck, a luck that (honestly!) measures up basically the same for us in the end, yeah? So I'd buy an argument that a mathematically-superior, personality-inferior coach wouldn't have been as effective in keeping the team's spirits up so that they absolutely could cash in when they went on a heater. Just imagine what someone like Babcock (or even worse, Keenan!) would have done in shredding Bob's confidence.

He was always a good coach, I saw his methods in Tor to, which have changed sonewhat with his current personnel but he was.always a fine coach.

Coaches are responsible for what? 10, 20 maybe 25% of the games outcome? The players win or lose every game if they show up or refuse to.

You're on the right track, but honestly, you're missing a decimal point there. 1, 2, 2.5% seems more likely.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Bobrovsky ain't no below average goalie. He's been very good throughout his career.
Maurice must be elated to finally have a group of players who put on the big boy pants when the pressure is on.
The opposite of what he had in Winnipeg.
55 who lets his team down repeatedly with missed assignments, weak defensive play, no hitting, etc.
81 who plays on the perimeter.
26 who avoids contact.
80 who disappears.
Etc.

If Chevy brings back 55 and 26 we are toast. These 2 have to go.

He absolutely was a good goalie in his prime. He was about as good as Saros was when he was also the age Saros is. But he started the year at 34 (or 33?) and his results were showing.

Again: if I'm wrong in assessing Bobrov (a little Fallout 4 for y'all) then why did he headline so many "worst contracts in the league" lists? Did all those people suddenly become wrong because of a John Druce-esque sample size?

 

[Ducky10]

MAF was all world during their cup run in 17-18, but he turned back into a pumpkin in the Final.
I don’t think Florida wins if that happens to Bob. Which is not out of the realm of possibility.

 

[AlphaLackey]

MAF was all world during their cup run in 17-18, but he turned back into a pumpkin in the Final.
I don’t think Florida wins if that happens to Bob. Which is not out of the realm of possibility.

Like I said, I was gonna bet on Florida to win the cup at +110 but Bob to be Conn Smythe was +200 and the former don't happen without the latter. A much younger AlphaLackey would be tapping his seed money looking for some arbitrage here.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Was Maurice a good coach cuz sounds like he didn't really coach a few guys so... how much really does the coach matter if the players running things are snowflakes. Wheels was and still is defacto coach.

Blake's a good guy but if the Jets do 2 things this off season, 1 needs to be Blake needs to go. You reset the room pretty drastically if most these guys were looking to Blake as the leader. He's not there so somebody else truly can step up.

It's time. But maybe he retires after this year and joins management (could see it )

Unrelated thought.... does Blake deserve a statue? He's been here longer than Dale. 2.0 leader in many categories. Kind of the face of the team for a long long time

 

[Guffman]

You did a great deep dive of using google search for 5 minutes lol.

And you did zero minutes of preparation other than to refer to their previous regular season record, while ignoring all the changes they made.

Hey dude, don’t get triggered. Just don’t make lazy posts. It wastes our time and clutters up our forums.

 

[Jets 31]

They gutted their defense core, moved out some core pieces and had massive cap issues going into last offseason. If everything was sun and roses, Brunette would still have been the HC.

As the recent report that was posted here, Florida’s style of play changed dramatically this season under Maurice.

It’s just lazy to look at last year’s standing and then stick your head in the ground to ignore what all of the actual changes were over these past 12 months but this is what I deal with on the daily on HF Forums… lazy takes that are easily refuted.

It’s boring for me to always be right over the years but I appreciate the amusement I get from stomping on half-arsed opinions.

Step up and actually do more of a deep dive.

I'm trying to understand what you get out of a post like this, you just like everyone else on here are correct sometimes and absolutely wrong sometimes. No need to be so arrogant and rude.

 

[sipowicz]

Bobrovsky ain't no below average goalie. He's been very good throughout his career.
Maurice must be elated to finally have a group of players who put on the big boy pants when the pressure is on.
The opposite of what he had in Winnipeg.
55 who lets his team down repeatedly with missed assignments, weak defensive play, no hitting, etc.
81 who plays on the perimeter.
26 who avoids contact.
80 who disappears.
Etc.

If Chevy brings back 55 and 26 we are toast. These 2 have to go.

Helly’s craptacular .886 playoff run also can’t be over looked, 1 win in his last 9 PO appearances doesn‘t help, some goalies rise to the occasion in the PO’s, ours doesn’t

 

[tbcwpg]

Helly’s craptacular .886 playoff run also can’t be over looked, 1 win in his last 9 PO appearances doesn‘t help, some goalies rise to the occasion in the PO’s, ours doesn’t

What happened against the Oilers?

 

[sipowicz]

What happened against the Oilers?

His lone good post season that ended with 4 straight losses to a bad Montreal team…

 

[AlphaLackey]

His lone good post season that ended with 4 straight losses to a bad Montreal team…

So the four good games don't count, but the four bad games do?

 

[sipowicz]

So the four good games don't count, but the four bad games do?

No, Helly was good in that 21' PO's, .931

 

[tbcwpg]

His lone good post season that ended with 4 straight losses to a bad Montreal team…

He was good in 18 against the Preds and Wild and wasn't bad against Vegas that year either.

 

[sipowicz]

He was good in 18 against the Preds and Wild and wasn't bad against Vegas that year either.

Except in sports, it’s what have you done for me latel, not 2018 or 2021, who cares!

 

[tbcwpg]

Except in sports, it’s what have you done for me latel, not 2018 or 2021, who cares!

Well then who cares if he's had 1 win in 9 playoff games?

 

[sipowicz]

Well then who cares if he's had 1 win in 9 playoff games?

4 of those P.O. losses were this season by the way!

 

[SensibleGuy]

You're on the right track, but honestly, you're missing a decimal point there. 1, 2, 2.5% seems more likely.

yup.

 

[tbcwpg]

MAF was all world during their cup run in 17-18, but he turned back into a pumpkin in the Final.
I don’t think Florida wins if that happens to Bob. Which is not out of the realm of possibility.

If Bob is just normal in the Cup Final, both Dallas and Vegas have the talent to end it quick.