Prospect Info: Matthew Tkachuk or PL Dubois (Round 3)

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Blowing Benning's doors off doesn't take much. This is what worries me here

 

[BloatedGuppy]

We need someone to ask him what he thinks Brown is projected to be. If he doesn't say first liner, I think we're good.

Brown does project as a first liner though. He's just more of a project and has a higher bust risk.

If you wanted reassurance that Brown WOULDN'T be the pick, he's projected to be 2-3 years away at best, and the general consensus on this management group is they want to fast track the crap out of everything.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Brown does project as a first liner though. He's just more of a project and has a higher bust risk.

If you wanted reassurance that Brown WOULDN'T be the pick, he's projected to be 2-3 years away at best, and the general consensus on this management group is they want to fast track the crap out of everything.

I'm not sure that Brown projects to be a first liner at this point in time. The trajectory for someone that puts up 74 pts in 59 GP in draft year is a 2nd liner. Those guys that put up 70 plus points on a yearly basis are mostly guys who had elite draft year numbers. Sure he could pull a Getzlaf or Bergeron but I have more faith that Dubois will become a 1st liner.

 

[BloatedGuppy]

I'm not sure that Brown projects to be a first liner at this point in time. The trajectory for someone that puts up 74 pts in 59 GP in draft year is a 2nd liner. Those guys that put up 70 plus points on a yearly basis are mostly guys who had elite draft year numbers. Sure he could pull a Getzlaf or Bergeron but I have more faith that Dubois will become a 1st liner.

Notable, but also notable is the fact his production rose significantly on the back half of the year. His coach seemed to think he put it all together and took big strides. Mind you, coaches aren't exactly the least biased sources regarding their athletes.

There's no question he's a higher risk pick than Dubois or Tkachuk (although I think Dubois has a few question marks himself) but anyone picking Brown would do so gambling on the prospect of him hitting his upside.

 

[CanaFan]

Notable, but also notable is the fact his production rose significantly on the back half of the year. His coach seemed to think he put it all together and took big strides. Mind you, coaches aren't exactly the least biased sources regarding their athletes.

There's no question he's a higher risk pick than Dubois or Tkachuk (although I think Dubois has a few question marks himself) but anyone picking Brown would do so gambling on the prospect of him hitting his upside.

Exactly. There is a lot of projection in Brown but that is why the high variance in how he is ranked. Not unlike Ryan Johansen in 2010 and Columbus made one of the best picks in the first round that year based on reading that projection correctly.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Notable, but also notable is the fact his production rose significantly on the back half of the year. His coach seemed to think he put it all together and took big strides. Mind you, coaches aren't exactly the least biased sources regarding their athletes.

There's no question he's a higher risk pick than Dubois or Tkachuk (although I think Dubois has a few question marks himself) but anyone picking Brown would do so gambling on the prospect of him hitting his upside.

I think the term "1st liner" gets thrown around too much specially around draft time. Very few players end up as 1st liners each draft but it doesn't stop people from getting their hopes up.

I'm not even 100% sold that Dubois or Tkachuk will end up 1st liners but I think the odds are much greater when you have a great draft year.

I think Laine and Matthews are locks to be 1st line players
Puljujarvi is almost a lock but not a complete lock to be a 1st line player

Dubois and Tkachuk have decent shots at being solid 1st line players but might end up as great 2nd liners.

Jost, Nylander, and Brown all seem like potential 2nd liners to me. If all the stars align you might get lucky and find yourself a 1st liner but that's asking a lot of the hockey gods.

Keller is a wild card.

 

[CanaFan]

I think the term "1st liner" gets thrown around too much specially around draft time. Very few players end up as 1st liners each draft but it doesn't stop people from getting their hopes up.

I'm not even 100% sold that Dubois or Tkachuk will end up 1st liners but I think the odds are much greater when you have a great draft year.

I think Laine and Matthews are locks to be 1st line players
Puljujarvi is almost a lock but not a complete lock to be a 1st line player

Dubois and Tkachuk have decent shots at being solid 1st line players but might end up as great 2nd liners.

Jost, Nylander, and Brown all seem like potential 2nd liners to me. If all the stars align you might get lucky and find yourself a 1st liner but that's asking a lot of the hockey gods.

Keller is a wild card.

The 30th scoring Centre put up 55 points this year. That means to be in the discussion as a "1st line quality" player these guys have to project to be 55+ point guys. I don't think a prospect has to be a Matthews or Laine level prospect to reasonably project at that level. Those guys project to be "stars" which is a fair notch higher than being a 1st line player.

I think there's several potential 1st line quality players in this draft, including Tkachuk, Dubois, Nylander, Jost, Keller, and Brown. Certainly some won't get there but I don't think you can draw the line at just Matthews and Laine.

 

[dwarf]

Brown does project as a first liner though. He's just more of a project and has a higher bust risk.

If you wanted reassurance that Brown WOULDN'T be the pick, he's projected to be 2-3 years away at best, and the general consensus on this management group is they want to fast track the crap out of everything.

I agree. I do like Brown, and suspect he will go in the 8th to 10th area.

 

[Bad News Benning]

The 30th scoring Centre put up 55 points this year. That means to be in the discussion as a "1st line quality" player these guys have to project to be 55+ point guys. I don't think a prospect has to be a Matthews or Laine level prospect to reasonably project at that level. Those guys project to be "stars" which is a fair notch higher than being a 1st line player.

I think there's several potential 1st line quality players in this draft, including Tkachuk, Dubois, Nylander, Jost, Keller, and Brown. Certainly some won't get there but I don't think you can draw the line at just Matthews and Laine.

Well my definition of 1st line player and #1 defenseman are much different than others. I don't really feel like there is 30 #1 centers or 30 #1 defenseman.

I'd say there is probably 15-20 legit number one centers right now and then a bunch of players just occupying that spot on a depth chart by default.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I think the term "1st liner" gets thrown around too much specially around draft time. Very few players end up as 1st liners each draft but it doesn't stop people from getting their hopes up.

I'm not even 100% sold that Dubois or Tkachuk will end up 1st liners but I think the odds are much greater when you have a great draft year.

I think Laine and Matthews are locks to be 1st line players
Puljujarvi is almost a lock but not a complete lock to be a 1st line player

Dubois and Tkachuk have decent shots at being solid 1st line players but might end up as great 2nd liners.

Jost, Nylander, and Brown all seem like potential 2nd liners to me. If all the stars align you might get lucky and find yourself a 1st liner but that's asking a lot of the hockey gods.

Keller is a wild card.

Nylander has definite 1st line upside. He's the surest bet to get there, IMO. So skilled and has an excellent shot. The traits outside of production will be his challenge. He can play up in the line up. I don't see him capping out on the 2nd line player at all.

I think Brown is more skilled than Dubois. Better on the Power Play. So it's not just about draft year production. It helps with the projection, but it's not the determinant to ultimate upside.

 

[WonderTwinsUnite]

Nylander has definite 1st line upside. He's the surest bet to get there, IMO. So skilled and has an excellent shot. The traits outside of production will be his challenge. He can play up in the line up. I don't see him capping out on the 2nd line player at all.

I think Brown is more skilled than Dubois. Better on the Power Play. So it's not just about draft year production. It helps with the projection, but it's not the determinant to ultimate upside.

I've got to disagree with you on their respective skill levels. Brown might have better playmaking vision, but I'd give Dubois the edge in hands, shot, and the ability to make plays at high speeds, which will serve him well in the pros.

Just my opinion, obviously.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

Just out of curiousity...

What would people considere a good return in a trade down to the 7-8 spot and grabbing Logan Brown?

 

[Verviticus]

Well my definition of 1st line player and #1 defenseman are much different than others. I don't really feel like there is 30 #1 centers or 30 #1 defenseman.

I'd say there is probably 15-20 legit number one centers right now and then a bunch of players just occupying that spot on a depth chart by default.

you could/should fix your wacky definitions

 

[CanaFan]

Well my definition of 1st line player and #1 defenseman are much different than others. I don't really feel like there is 30 #1 centers or 30 #1 defenseman.

I'd say there is probably 15-20 legit number one centers right now and then a bunch of players just occupying that spot on a depth chart by default.

But you need some objective measure to form those parameters. Since there are 30 1st lines, being among the 30 best players at you position is a fairly simple and reasonable cut off for that label. That doesn't mean every team has a "1st line centre" since teams like Pittsburgh, Washington, etc have more than one. Some teams don't have a top 30 centre, which is what I would mean when I refer to someone as a 1C. When you talk about the best 5 or 10 players in the game I think you are talking about "stars", not "first liners".

It may not be 100% perfect but it makes sense to peg the term to some definable level of quality to prevent loose and arbitrary definitions that mean different things to different people.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Nylander has definite 1st line upside. He's the surest bet to get there, IMO. So skilled and has an excellent shot. The traits outside of production will be his challenge. He can play up in the line up. I don't see him capping out on the 2nd line player at all.

I think Brown is more skilled than Dubois. Better on the Power Play. So it's not just about draft year production. It helps with the projection, but it's not the determinant to ultimate upside.

Most likely outcomes for Nylander or Brown is either 2nd liner or bustville. Reality is that when we look back on this draft in a few years a lot of the glow comes off a lot of these players.

I'm not gonna say there is no chance that Nylander or Brown become 1st liners but just becoming a 2nd line center or winger in the NHL is difficult and anything beyond that is really beating the odds.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I've got to disagree with you on their respective skill levels. Brown might have better playmaking vision, but I'd give Dubois the edge in hands, shot, and the ability to make plays at high speeds, which will serve him well in the pros.

Just my opinion, obviously.

Fair enough. Brown has the ability to use positioning to get off short passes, on which he is very adept. The difference in hands can be seen on the Power Play IMO. Shot, sure, you could give the nod to Dubois here. After all, we're comparing 42 goals with 21 goals, but don't let the totals skew it for you. Brown is a very good shooter. He just doesn't utilize his shot and he scored most of his goals in the latter 30 games of the season -- where he was running at a 1.52 PPG clip.

Both can handle the puck at speed. Dubois is faster, but both can make plays while carrying the puck up ice.

I think Brown is more naturally skilled, but I think Dubois uses what he has to better effect... if that makes sense? This being a discussion on upside, I think that greater skill level will bear itself out over time.

 

[WonderTwinsUnite]

Just out of curiousity...

What would people considere a good return in a trade down to the 7-8 spot and grabbing Logan Brown?

If Arizona, I'm asking for

7 + their 2016 second + 1st

or Strome (Overpayment, but that's what I'd ask for)

Buffalo:

8 + their 2016 second + 1st

or Reinhart + 2nd

 

[Verviticus]

But you need some objective measure to form those parameters. Since there are 30 1st lines, being among the 30 best players at you position is a fairly simple and reasonable cut off for that label. That doesn't mean every team has a "1st line centre" since teams like Pittsburgh, Washington, etc have more than one. Some teams don't have a top 30 centre, which is what I would mean when I refer to someone as a 1C. When you talk about the best 5 or 10 players in the game I think you are talking about "stars", not "first liners".

It may not be 100% perfect but it makes sense to peg the term to some definable level of quality to prevent loose and arbitrary definitions that mean different things to different people.

it is the only correct way and is perfect as a definition. the flaw is in using 1st line/2nd line as terms when they are not precise

 

[Bleach Clean]

Most likely outcomes for Nylander or Brown is either 2nd liner or bustville. Reality is that when we look back on this draft in a few years a lot of the glow comes off a lot of these players.

I'm not gonna say there is no chance that Nylander or Brown become 1st liners but just becoming a 2nd line center or winger in the NHL is difficult and anything beyond that is really beating the odds.

I hear what you're saying in terms of tempering enthusiasm. I pegged Nick Ritchie to likely reach 2nd line status in the NHL, eventually, and he went 10th overall. So I understand that not everyone is going to be a world beater. That said, I still think that while Nylander and Brown are _likely_ to be 2nd liners, their respective skill level ensures that there's nothing preventing them from becoming 1st liners. Nylander, especially, is not even bound by the height concerns Brown has... He has the toolset and intelligence to score at a 1st line level in the NHL. The rest is up to post draft development.

This is ultimate projection we are talking about. For likelihood, we agree that a 2nd line level is a reasonable bet.

 

[Bad News Benning]

you could/should fix your wacky definitions

I don't have to change anything. People can have whatever definition they would like. I'm sure my opinion isn't popular but I look at things differently than most probably will.

When I think number 1 center or number 1 defenseman I think someone that is the type you can build a contender/winner around. Is it fair? no but I have a much higher expectation of what I want a number 1 guy to be. Brown could put up 55 points and I'm still not gonna consider him a number 1 center even if he's amongst the Top 30 centers in scoring.

Most think Tanev is a number 1 defenseman but I personally don't think the canucks can win a cup/go deep in the playoffs with Tanev as our number 1 defenseman. This is not taking anything away from Tanev as I think very highly of him..

 

[CanaFan]

I don't have to change anything. People can have whatever definition they would like. I'm sure my opinion isn't popular but I look at things differently than most probably will.

When I think number 1 center or number 1 defenseman I think someone that is the type you can build a contender/winner around. Is it fair? no but I have a much higher expectation of what I want a number 1 guy to be. Brown could put up 55 points and I'm still not gonna consider him a number 1 center even if he's amongst the Top 30 centers in scoring.

Most think Tanev is a number 1 defenseman but I personally don't think the canucks can win a cup/go deep in the playoffs with Tanev as our number 1 defenseman. This is not taking anything away from Tanev as I think very highly of him..

Fine but when most people use the term they aren't using it in that way so in future it would probably be best if you clarify or use something like "top 10-15 centre" so that everyone is on the same page in the discussion. It just saves people arguing for 5 pages about something they probably wouldn't disagree with if they just knew that you meant something different.

 

[ginner classic]

Fair enough. Brown has the ability to use positioning to get off short passes, on which he is very adept. The difference in hands can be seen on the Power Play IMO. Shot, sure, you could give the nod to Dubois here. After all, we're comparing 42 goals with 21 goals, but don't let the totals skew it for you. Brown is a very good shooter. He just doesn't utilize his shot and he scored most of his goals in the latter 30 games of the season -- where he was running at a 1.52 PPG clip.

Both can handle the puck at speed. Dubois is faster, but both can make plays while carrying the puck up ice.

I think Brown is more naturally skilled, but I think Dubois uses what he has to better effect... if that makes sense? This being a discussion on upside, I think that greater skill level will bear itself out over time.

I concur with all of this

 

[Grub]

Why are some of you even thinking of trading down.

You go for the BPA. And IMO that is Thachuk and PLD. Brown could be better in the future but what if he isin't?

Take the safe move.

 

[ahmon]

I think the term "1st liner" gets thrown around too much specially around draft time. Very few players end up as 1st liners each draft but it doesn't stop people from getting their hopes up.

I'm not even 100% sold that Dubois or Tkachuk will end up 1st liners but I think the odds are much greater when you have a great draft year.

I think Laine and Matthews are locks to be 1st line players
Puljujarvi is almost a lock but not a complete lock to be a 1st line player

Dubois and Tkachuk have decent shots at being solid 1st line players but might end up as great 2nd liners.

Jost, Nylander, and Brown all seem like potential 2nd liners to me. If all the stars align you might get lucky and find yourself a 1st liner but that's asking a lot of the hockey gods.

Keller is a wild card.

I will be shocked if Tkachuk doesn't end up as a 1st line forward- even using your "criteria". IMO Tkachuk has potential to be a top 10 LW in the game.

He's basically Daniel Sedin with more grit/physicality.

Everyone of Tkachuk, Keller, Dubois, Brown, Nylander even Jost has 1st line upside. But probably not all will reach that level.

But then there's always a few outside the top tier who will surprise.

For example, I think Kieffer Bellows has potential to be a top line winger.

 

[CanaFan]

Found this on the Oilers board as I don't usually find NHL.com worth perusing.

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-draft-pierre-luc-dubois-vs-matthew-tkachuk/c-280963710

Some interesting takes from scouts on Dubois and Tkachuk. Overwhelmingly positive about both guys and generally don't see much distance between them.

Gawd, imagine if we simply drafted whichever of these guys was left at 5. It could be the first summer in recent memory where the board doesn't eat itself alive over its 1st round pick. Granted Boeser wasn't too bad but 2014 and 2013 were nightmares ...