Speculation: Matthew Tkachuk MEGA Thread (informs Flames he will not sign long term)

[BinCookin]

What does Tkachuk score without Gaudreau having a career year on his line?

Last 4 years
18-19 - .425 G/Game .96 P/Game
19-20 - .333 G/Game ,88 P/Game
20-21 - .29 G/Game .77 P/Game
21-22 - .51 G/Game 1.27 P/Game

Comparing Vrana and Tkachuk over the last 4 years
5 on 5 .

Vrana 2812 minutes 1.47 G/60 2.54 P/60
Tkachuk 4035 minutes .95 G/60 2.41 P/60

Vrana has more shots/60. More takeaways/60. Fewer giveaways/60.

Where Tkachuk beats him is hits/60 - 6.51 to 2.28.

That's why I'm willing to throw in Hronek and a first.
I love the idea of Bertuzzi on one line and Tkachuk on the other.

MBH..

Lets not do the thing where we offer them 5 players for Tkachuk, and when they say no (as they should).. we go and say "Tkachuk isn't actually that good"...

Followed by several random people being insulted and it turns the entire discussion into a shit show..

But hey.. maybe that is how these posts always go??

As a Red Wings Fan I can say this:

Tkachuk had a great year... his CURRENT value is astronomical.
Detroit cannot, and should not try to trade for him. One of our few young core pieces would need to be involved, followed by us paying Tkachuk like 10M a year.

Honestly I would want no part of that kind of trade. Most Red Wings Fans realize this. Sure we would take Tkachuk for scraps... but who wouldnt.

On another note, i had a discussion on our board that Joe Veleno wouldn't even make the Flames NHL roster... is that true Flames fans??

 

[Jim Bob]

The biggest challenge with Matthew Tkachuk for any team is predicting what he will be on their roster as they will have to commit a huge contract to him before he plays a single game on their team.

If Tkachuk away from Gaudreau is a 25-35 goal and 70-75 point power winger with a $10M+ cap hit...

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Lucic has negative value. 5 mil cap hit for a 4th liner? If you’re adding Detroit’s 2nd then I want Tanev coming back. Not an overpaid bum like Lucic.

Also if you’re adding one of Johansson or Wallinder then subtract Berggren.

Lol you say that like Tanev is only worth a 2nd. That offer as it stands now is not enticing. No Edvinsson or Kasper, no Tkachuk

 

[Richiebottles]

The biggest challenge with Matthew Tkachuk for any team is predicting what he will be on their roster as they will have to commit a huge contract to him before he plays a single game on their team.

If Tkachuk away from Gaudreau is a 25-35 goal and 70-75 point power winger with a $10M+ cap hit...

That's what scares me as well. I just have a feeling the new deal with age really poorly and whomever acquires him will have buyers remorse.

Then again if he plays with talent up the middle he might be able to continue at the pace he was at in Calgary.

 

[Jim Bob]

That's what scares me as well. I just have a feeling the new deal with age really poorly and whomever acquires him will have buyers remorse.

Then again if he plays with talent up the middle he might be able to continue at the pace he was at in Calgary.

The votes so far do not surprise me.

Team fit will be crucial.

I think it is kind of like the question of what will DeBrincat be able to do away from Kane?

Tkachuk will need a playmaker that he can develop chemistry with.

 

[Reality Czech]

The votes so far do not surprise me.

Team fit will be crucial.

I think it is kind of like the question of what will DeBrincat be able to do away from Kane?

Tkachuk will need a playmaker that he can develop chemistry with.

 

[Bond]

Hell no hell no

I want it to happen because it will be the best return by far but also because you'll have to lime Tkachuk haha

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Shocked at how much credit JG is getting for Matthew’s career year. Scoring has gone up and it was his first full season since before Covid. Meanwhile I can think of 20 other players better than JG that Matthew will likely end up playing alongside.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

The biggest challenge with Matthew Tkachuk for any team is predicting what he will be on their roster as they will have to commit a huge contract to him before he plays a single game on their team.

If Tkachuk away from Gaudreau is a 25-35 goal and 70-75 point power winger with a $10M+ cap hit...

I like Gaudreau a lot, but hes basically a 70-80 point player for his career before this past season. Maybe it was Tkachuk that "unlocked" Gaudreau?

its almost like good players do better when they play together....?

 

[Haatley]

I like Gaudreau a lot, but hes basically a 70-80 point player for his career before this past season. Maybe it was Tkachuk that "unlocked" Gaudreau?

its almost like good players do better when they play together....?

Gaudreau scored 99 points before 2 meh seasons with meh line mates. He is not a 70 point player lol

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Gaudreau scored 99 points before 2 meh seasons with meh line mates. He is not a 70 point player lol

Gaudreau (BEFORE the 2021-22 season) had 494 points in 520 games in his career, or 0.95 ppg. Over 82 games, thats 77-78 points on average.

So, yeah.

 

[Jim Bob]

I like Gaudreau a lot, but hes basically a 70-80 point player for his career before this past season. Maybe it was Tkachuk that "unlocked" Gaudreau?

its almost like good players do better when they play together....?

Gaudreau has 4 80+ Pt/82 GP seasons in his NHL career.

Tkachuk has 1 and one 79pt/82 GP season.

'19-20 is the only season together where Tkachuk outproduced Gaudreau offensively.

 

[Double Dion]

Not enough value after the season Tkachuk just had but I also don’t think he’s actually much more than a 70pt player in a regular season so I definitely don’t want to give him the $9M+ long term deal he will be looking for

He put up 77 playing with a 2 or 3 C in Backlund and a 3 or 4 W in Frolik.

MBH..

Lets not do the thing where we offer them 5 players for Tkachuk, and when they say no (as they should).. we go and say "Tkachuk isn't actually that good"...

Followed by several random people being insulted and it turns the entire discussion into a shit show..

But hey.. maybe that is how these posts always go??

As a Red Wings Fan I can say this:

Tkachuk had a great year... his CURRENT value is astronomical.
Detroit cannot, and should not try to trade for him. One of our few young core pieces would need to be involved, followed by us paying Tkachuk like 10M a year.

Honestly I would want no part of that kind of trade. Most Red Wings Fans realize this. Sure we would take Tkachuk for scraps... but who wouldnt.

On another note, i had a discussion on our board that Joe Veleno wouldn't even make the Flames NHL roster... is that true Flames fans??

Probably true Veleno wouldn't make the roster, but it wouldn't be his fault. Sutter loves him some Trevor Lewis, Milan Lucic, Kevin Rooney types.

He'd be IMO a top 10 forward for us. Of course so would Pelletier and he's not playing either.

 

[KaraLupin]

I like Gaudreau a lot, but hes basically a 70-80 point player for his career before this past season. Maybe it was Tkachuk that "unlocked" Gaudreau?

its almost like good players do better when they play together....?

Wrong, Lindholm unlocked both.

 

[Richiebottles]

Wrong, Lindholm unlocked both.

Lindholm is so under-rated in the league.

It boggles my mind.

 

[FLAMES666]

Wrong, Lindholm unlocked both.

Bingo! Having one of the best defensive centerman in the game right now does that. Look at Boston. Could Gaudreau or Tkachuck get 100+ again. For sure just depends who they play with. They had such a great season cause of that line.

I wouldnt bet money on Johnny getting 100pts on Columbus. If Tkachcuk goes to NJ or St.Louis next season he out produces Johnny if you ask me .

 

[Hockey Dad]

I would offer Hintz for Tkachuk. He is a 25 year old 1st line Center. Dallas only does this to add some grit to their team.

 

[zeke]

Sometimes lines just click and go supernova and become much better than the sum of their parts for a year or two.

like Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson or Bertuzzi-Morrison-Naslund.


The funny thing is Calgary might well be saved from some big overpayments and still be good if they can get a good return on Tkachuk.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

I like Gaudreau a lot, but hes basically a 70-80 point player for his career before this past season. Maybe it was Tkachuk that "unlocked" Gaudreau?

its almost like good players do better when they play together....?

Agreed.

When I think about how talented a player is, I think "what is he capable in the right situation". You need a certain level of talent to put up the numbers Tkachuk and Gaudreau did. Only the most elite players in the game can keep up a 90+ point pace with very little help, and those players don't get traded.

Someone will overpay for Tkachuk and it will be completely worth it. There are very few players with talent to peak where he has, not to mention his physical gifts.

 

[nbwingsfan]

He put up 77 playing with a 2 or 3 C in Backlund and a 3 or 4 W in Frolik.


Probably true Veleno wouldn't make the roster, but it wouldn't be his fault. Sutter loves him some Trevor Lewis, Milan Lucic, Kevin Rooney types.

He'd be IMO a top 10 forward for us. Of course so would Pelletier and he's not playing either.

70pts is exactly the definition of “not much more than a 70pt player” so I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make here

 

[Falco Lombardi]

Stolen from Twitter but it feels solid?

To Calgary:
Jordan Kyrou
2023 1st (STL)
2023 3rd (NYI)
Zachary Bolduc

To New York Islanders:
Vladimir Tarasenko
Torey Krug (30% retained)

To St. Louis:
Matthew Tkachuk
Anthony Beauvillier

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

I would offer Hintz for Tkachuk. He is a 25 year old 1st line Center. Dallas only does this to add some grit to their team.

That’s who I would target if he’s traded to Dallas. Not sure Hintz is a true 1C. More like a very good 2C.

Gaudreau (BEFORE the 2021-22 season) had 494 points in 520 games in his career, or 0.95 ppg. Over 82 games, thats 77-78 points on average.

So, yeah.

Anyone that thinks Gaudreau wasn’t the straw that stirred the drink on the Flames does not watch the Flames with any regularity.

 

[Mcdonaldz]

Columbus should/could try something around Laine vs Tkachuk

 

[HITMAN88]

What are the potential teams that Tkachuk would agree to extend with ..and maybe Calgary would agree to trade with? Probably all the Pacific teams are out? Ottawa is probably the only team from Canada that have a chance to land Tkachuk. Buffalo, Chicago and Arizona should be out of the discussion(sorry Sabres, Blackhawks and Coyotes fans). That left us with 18 teams although teams like Tampa, Pens, Flyers, Colorado and some others(?) won't be willing to move pieces to get Tkachuk.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Stolen from Twitter but it feels solid?

To Calgary:
Jordan Kyrou
2023 1st (STL)
2023 3rd (NYI)
Zachary Bolduc

To New York Islanders:
Vladimir Tarasenko
Torey Krug (30% retained)

To St. Louis:
Matthew Tkachuk
Anthony Beauvillier

Seems bad for Islanders. Solid from Flames perspective. I think St Lou wins that trade.