Player Discussion Marner

[ACC1224]

It’s not the 10 games. It’s the 8 seasons (going on 9). He is the only one that has failed every playoffs. every playoffs. And he is about to get a pay raise, when he isnt living up to his contract now.

He can’t change the narrative of the past playoffs during this regular season. I don’t see the point of the daily weeping about something that may happen again in 6 months. Seems like a miserable way to spend a season.
He played great the past few games, why not discuss that?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Bergeron Center 6'1 196lbs
Barkov Center 6'3 214lbs
Backstrom Center 6'1 202lbs
Marner Winger 6'0 180lbs

There's a big difference between Marner and these guys.

That's not a meaningful difference, and it was more about the point than a perfect comparison of players.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Here it is:

Is Mitch Marner The Most Overrated Player in the NHL?

His conclusion was yes 5v5 Marner is.

That was interesting, thanks!

Cliff notes for those who can't be bothered to watch (which you should consider, it's not very long):
Marner is a very good player, but only 4th best at creating scoring chances on his own team. This was I believe from 2019 when Matthews ranked 3rd in this category league wide, JT was tied for 12th, Nylander was 22nd and Marner was 26th. Still very good, but nowhere near as good as people think.

This no doubt comes as a surprise to many people but there it is. His fans say JT scored all those goals because of Marner but JT actually created more chances than Marner, but unlike Marner he's also able to convert those chances. So not only are Marner's linemates making him look good by converting chances at an elite rate, Marner's also making them look worse as playmakers because he's not very good at converting scoring chances into goals.

Would be interesting to see yearly stats in this category but I doubt much has changed.

 

[Anthrax442]

He can’t change the narrative of the past playoffs during this regular season. I don’t see the point of the daily weeping about something that may happen again in 6 months. Seems like a miserable way to spend a season.
He played great the past few games, why not discuss that?

I dont even care. I was bored.

 

[ACC1224]

I dont even care. I was bored.

If only everyone else could be so honest.

 

[Gallagbi]

Would be interesting to see yearly stats in this category but I doubt much has changed.

I'd be interested in this as well, especially given the varied line mates he's had over his Leafs career

 

[Gary Nylund]

I dont even care. I was bored.

I know how you feel. I had the game on but was doing other things as I just can't seem to get too excited about yet another regular season game. Then the Jets made it 5-4 I started watching but that's about it.

 

[francis246]

That was interesting, thanks!

Cliff notes for those who can't be bothered to watch (which you should consider, it's not very long):
Marner is a very good player, but only 4th best at creating scoring chances on his own team. This was I believe from 2019 when Matthews ranked 3rd in this category league wide, JT was tied for 12th, Nylander was 22nd and Marner was 26th. Still very good, but nowhere near as good as people think.

This no doubt comes as a surprise to many people but there it is. His fans say JT scored all those goals because of Marner but JT actually created more chances than Marner, but unlike Marner he's also able to convert those chances. So not only are Marner's linemates making him look good by converting chances at an elite rate, Marner's also making them look worse as playmakers because he's not very good at converting scoring chances into goals.

Would be interesting to see yearly stats in this category but I doubt much has changed.

Why would you take anything Andrew Berkshire says seriously? He’s a known leafs hater. And tries to shit on them any chance he gets. No one in the media messes with him and he’s been completely blacklisted. After he was let go by SDPN, he went on a senseless rant and basically no one in the media talks to or takes anything he says seriously anymore.

Guy is a tool and not credible.

 

[Antropovsky]

That's not a meaningful difference, and it was more about the point than a perfect comparison of players.

20-34 lbs isnt meaningful?

 

[Niagara Bill]

Of course there's a limit. I wouldn't pay him max. But there's no reason to think that it's going to take anything close to max.

Nothing is twisted. You can easily verify the data yourself. Those stretches of season-playoff production discrepancies aren't as abnormal as you want them to be, and they happen to all sorts of players. It doesn't mean what you want it to.

Marner isn't any of those. Marner is the Backstrom, who was kept. The Bergeron, who was kept. The Barkov, who was kept.

Both parties would not agree to that. It's not realistic. I'm talking about realistic alternatives before we throw away one of the best players this franchise has ever seen.

It's not though. People overrate what cap space actually gets you.

You are becoming a joke, people over rate cap space.....hahaha

 

[francis246]

You are becoming a joke, people over rate cap space.....hahaha

Cap space is only valuable if it’s utilized properly. The issue is that most GM’s overspend in UFA and don’t utilize cap space to take advantage of trades with cap space.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Why would you take anything Andrew Berkshire says seriously? He’s a known leafs hater. And tries to shit on them any chance he gets. No one in the media messes with him and he’s been completely blacklisted. After he was let go by SDPN, he went on a senseless rant and basically no one in the media talks to or takes anything he says seriously anymore.

Guy is a tool and not credible.

Not sure where you're getting this from. What do you mean by "completely blacklisted"?

 

[Niagara Bill]

At 13m I can assure we will be a better team with a 7m and 6m player instead. He does not have the level of impact needed to command that money.

Yes, Mitchy and daddy want a % of cap...so far it has been to high.
We can replace Mitchy and JT with 4 quality forwards, which also eliminates 2 guys from bottom of line up.

 

[francis246]

Not sure where you're getting this from. What do you mean by "completely blacklisted"?

Show me anything Andrew Berkshire has done in the media since Covid. He hasn’t. He can’t find a job. I forgot exactly what he said on Twitter but he had to issue a huge apology and basically hasn’t been working in hockey media since. No longer appears on Sportsnet or anything like that either.

Not sure where you're getting this from. What do you mean by "completely blacklisted"?

Aha I actually remember it was he made some comments about Zach Hyman never having to work hard in his life and everything was given to him. And how his dad bought his NHL career. Something along those lines. And that’s what I mean. Any former leaf Berkshire will say the dumbest shit just for clicks. Hyman was on the oilers

 

[Gary Nylund]

Show me anything Andrew Berkshire has done in the media since Covid. He hasn’t. He can’t find a job. I forgot exactly what he said on Twitter but he had to issue a huge apology and basically hasn’t been working in hockey media since. No longer appears on Sportsnet or anything like that either.

Aha I actually remember it was he made some comments about Zach Hyman never having to work hard in his life and everything was given to him. And how his dad bought his NHL career. Something along those lines. And that’s what I mean. Any former leaf Berkshire will say the dumbest shit just for clicks. Hyman was on the oilers

I don't pay much attention to sports media so I can't to show you anything. I watched the video that was shared and what he said seemed to make sense, that's the end of it.

A quick google search shows that this Hyman stuff happened in the spring, I don't see that he apologized, rather provided some clarification on what he said.

Re. the bolded - not sure what you mean by "any former leaf Berkshire"??

 

[francis246]

I don't pay much attention to sports media so I can't to show you anything. I watched the video that was shared and what he said seemed to make sense, that's the end of it.

A quick google search shows that this Hyman stuff happened in the spring, I don't see that he apologized, rather provided some clarification on what he said.

Re. the bolded - not sure what you mean by "any former leaf Berkshire"??

Meant to say, any former/current leaf he’s had wild takes on. Same things he’s said about Mitch, he’s said about Matthews. Point being, he has not worked with Sportsnet in about 4 years and was not picked up by any other major network or even online web based subscription. Hasn’t been hired by an NHL team or even AHL team and he’s supposed to be an analytics guy. He’s not really credible. Usually those types of guys get hired pretty quickly by online writing platforms.

Even Julian MacKenzie is getting jobs with the athletic haha. Berkshire is doing his own thing now and hopefully it takes off but he’s just got some awful takes.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Meant to say, any former/current leaf he’s had wild takes on. Same things he’s said about Mitch, he’s said about Matthews. Point being, he has not worked with Sportsnet in about 4 years and was not picked up by any other major network or even online web based subscription. Hasn’t been hired by an NHL team or even AHL team and he’s supposed to be an analytics guy. He’s not really credible. Usually those types of guys get hired pretty quickly by online writing platforms.

Even Julian MacKenzie is getting jobs with the athletic haha. Berkshire is doing his own thing now and hopefully it takes off but he’s just got some awful takes.

What he said about Marner made sense to me. If it doesn't to you then that's fine but I'm not going to dismiss something that seems to make sense because of nothing more than who wrote it. I don't know dick about who the media guys are so I pay no attention to who's saying what. If someone shares something that seems interesting I will take a look at and decide for myself if it makes sense or not. Hell even Simmonds is right every now and then despite the fact that he spews a lot of nonsense.

 

[Antropovsky]

To the Marner fans posting about him leading the team in points. Read this deep dive article i stumbled upon today about Marners "empty calorie points", from January of last year.

Tracks exactly what I've been saying about Marner.

This is most interesting conclusion the author came to:

"His playmaking while inside the zone has also taken a hit this season, with fewer shot and scoring-chance assists.

Not only are the Leafs creating less in Marner’s minutes compared to previous seasons, but it’s also relative to his teammates this season. He’s rarely had a negative influence on his team’s expected goal creation, but this year it’s down to minus-0.17 per 60.

Marner’s impact, relative to the average skater when accounting for his role, usage, and coaching, is still slightly above average as the heat maps reflect below (the top row is offense/bottom row defense, with red showing areas of more expected goal generation). But he’s someone the Leafs count on to be more than slightly above average — he’s expected to be a game-breaker, along with Nylander and Matthews.

The production may have masked some of the flaws developing below the surface, but Marner needs to bring more than just empty-calorie scoring. "

More "interesting" info in bold below from the article:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5212957/2024/01/19/mitch-marner-maple-leafs-points/

With a win in the books, it’s easy to chalk it up as a fine game for Marner. But that’s part of the problem this season: He’s had a bunch of fine games. Or games that seem fine on the scoresheet, but lack substance to back up that performance. Toronto needs him to be great more often than not — especially as the pressure rises in the second half of the season.
If Marner at least matches his current scoring pace, he will finish the year in the 90-point range for the third straight season. Even if he ends the year a shade off of his totals from the last two seasons, there isn’t a real reason to wave a red flag just yet — until you start digging past that surface level.

With a scoring pace of 3.16 points per 60, Marner stood at 31st in the league and third on the Leafs heading into Thursday night
If that was where Marner’s dips stopped, there wouldn’t be much of a conversation. But someone of his caliber is expected to dominate his minutes, and that hasn’t been the case through much of the season. And that’s a key reason why his average Game Score has dropped from 1.37 last year to 1.10 through 42 games. In just under half of Marner’s games this year, his overall game hasn’t matched up to his play on the scoresheet — and his five-on-five play has a lot to do with it.
Ahead of Thursday’s matchup against the Flames, Toronto had outscored opponents 34-25 in Marner’s minutes, for just under 58 percent of the goals share. The winger has had a hand in tilting the scoring in his minutes, with a point on 80 percent of the goals he’s been on the ice for. But that scoring doesn’t quite line up with the shot quality being created on both ends.

Toronto is just breaking even, with 50.3 percent of the expected goals share when Marner is deployed. That is uncharacteristically low for a player who tends to have a hand in creating a lot of quality offense in his minutes and limiting opponents back in his own zone. The Maple Leafs have only been out-chanced in one season with Marner on the ice: his rookie year in 2016-17, when the team only mustered 49.6 percent of the expected goals.

Marner is firing the puck more often at five-on-five, and he has the results to show for it, with an increased goals rate than most seasons. But there isn’t as much oomph below the surface to support that pace. A higher percentage of his shot attempts are getting blocked or missing the net; only 62.3 percent are even going on goal,

Marner’s elevated shooting percentage of 17.3 also raises some sustainability concerns. If his shots were getting set up by high-danger chances more often than in years past, it might explain why he’s converting more this season. But that’s not the case.

Marner is bringing the puck into the offensive zone less, and that’s subsequently led to fewer scoring chances for the Leafs in transition. His playmaking while inside the zone has also taken a hit this season, with fewer shot and scoring-chance assists.

Not only are the Leafs creating less in Marner’s minutes compared to previous seasons, but it’s also relative to his teammates this season. He’s rarely had a negative influence on his team’s expected goal creation, but this year it’s down to minus-0.17 per 60.

Marner’s impact, relative to the average skater when accounting for his role, usage, and coaching, is still slightly above average as the heat maps reflect below (the top row is offense/bottom row defense, with red showing areas of more expected goal generation). But he’s someone the Leafs count on to be more than slightly above average — he’s expected to be a game-breaker, along with Nylander and Matthews.

It won’t get any easier for Toronto in the second half, with one of the more difficult schedules ahead. And that’s going to put even more responsibility on all four components of the Core Four to perform up to the high expectations they’ve set for themselves. The production may have masked some of the flaws developing below the surface, but Marner needs to bring more than just empty-calorie scoring.

 

[Confucius]

wait till Berube sees him play in playoffs




Because we haven’t seen a cup run in our lifetime

I’d be shocked if Berube hasn’t seen his playoff games