Player Discussion Marner

[Gary Nylund]

This is just never ending, like an old school
Savardian spin-a-rama

We should all stop posting, and every day just have the posts from exactly one year ago in whatever Marner thread was active at the times copy/pasted ITT. I wonder if anyone could tell the difference?

 

[francis246]

What is our win record with Marner vs without last season?

Bad, they showed a graphic. But again there’s so many factors you can’t read into that stuff

 

[1specter]

What is our win record with Marner vs without last season?

What Is The Leafs Record Without Marner In 2023-2024 Season | StatMuse

The Toronto Maple Leafs were 8-4-1 without Mitch Marner in 2023-24.

www.statmuse.com

 

[freshwind]

Nylander doesn’t PK, that was literally the difference. Why are we crying about 3 minutes. We took a shit ton of penalties and Marner is a primary PK guy on our team. Obviously on nights where we have to PK more Nylanders minutes will be down and Marner’s minutes will be up. It’s not rocket science. No need to cry about it. If not for the penalities I believe Nylander would have definitely lead in ice time last night.

not crying, and i did not mention last night ... that ice time difference is season to date after 6 games ... i asked a simple question ... do you believe his play this year warrants that much additional time?

 

[francis246]

Maybe that 5 years isn't ideal but it probably makes more sense that just picking the year before last.

Off the top of my head, a good way to do it would be to look at only the last 3 years. Give 50% weight to the most recent season, 30% to the season before that and 20% to the other one. Now it would take some time to do the math obviously but considering how much better Nylander was in this time frame compared to the others, I think he'd still come out looking pretty good.

This was posted by @mjd1001 in Sept 2023.

I rounded my numbers, but the big 4 over the last 5 years in the playoffs:
Matthews: 18% less points per game in the playoffs vs regular season
Marner: 24% less points per game in the playoffs
Nylander: 2% less points per game in the playoffs
Tavares: 27% less points per game in the playoffs.

Bottom line - Marner's regular season money in the back, Nylander's money in the bank in the playoffs.


Goals for and goals against, either way we're talking about goals, not a "whole combination of things".

Agreed I think the last 3 years is a good sample size. The core 4 were getting relatively equal time and production was similar in regular season.

 

[ACC1224]

not crying, and i did not mention last night ... that ice time difference is season to date after 6 games ... i asked a simple question ... do you believe his play this year warrants that much additional time?

It could be down to just a few extra shifts a game(starting of periods, after tv timeout, defensive zone) plus PK.
It's shouldn't be seen as disrespect to Nylander.

 

[francis246]

not crying, and i did not mention last night ... that ice time difference is season to date after 6 games ... i asked a simple question ... do you believe his play this year warrants that much additional time?

Yes because Marner spends more time on the PK. Also Marner was better than Nylander when they were younger. Now I think you can make the argument Nylander is better. So yes, that additional time has been warrented if we are talking over the career. I’m pretty sure Nylander is perfectly fine with his ice time. He’s very efficient with his ice time. I think currently there is very little difference in ice time. Maybe 30 seconds or less

 

[notDatsyuk]

So I wanted to double check all numbers to make sure. Quickly ran them. @sunstersun is right. If you look at career numbers. Nylander is consistent all the way through, playoffs and regular season based on PPG.

You ACC are also technically correct, Nylander does score the least so his drop off would be less but may be more accurate to use the last 3 years where he’s been ppg

I think more relevant than the simple numeric drop is the percentage drop.

Last three years:

Matty 1.31 to 1.04: 27 points, or 20.6%
Mitch 1.27 to 1.00: 27 points, or 21.3%
Willy 1.08 to 0.91: 17 points, or 15.7%
JT 0.92 to 0.64: 28 points, or 30.4%

 

[notDatsyuk]

The point is 'wins' are all that matter, not goals.

True, but players don't score 'wins' they score 'goals'.

If you get no assists, you can win. If you get no goals, you can't.

 

[Jojalu]

Matthews has some crazy underlying numbers this year. Probably kicking himself blowing all those sweet setups.

5v5 among ALL players in the league:

Most shots on goal: Matthews
Most shot attempts on goal: Matthews
Most scoring chances: Matthews by a mile
Highest expected goals: Matthews by a mile

Shooting%: 9.09

Also, the Matthews and Marner combo havnt been on the ice for a 5v5 goal against so far this season.

M&M just need to keep playing the way they are playing and Im pretty sure Matthews shooting% will climb back closer to where it should be.

Where are you seeing the 5v5 stat?

All I can find is that Matthews has been on for 2 even strength goals, and Marner 4.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Goals are the person who puts the puck in the net.

A player putting the puck into the net gives that player a goal in the stat column, but they are not the sole cause of the goal. Many times, they are not even the primary cause of the goal. That is why other stats are collected - primary and secondary assists - to capture impacts and contributions towards the goal that would otherwise be missed. When you were wrong about Marner, you attempted to isolate "goals" as special, but there is nothing that supports the idea that a goal is more valuable than at the very least a primary assist; in either contract or statistical analysis. You made an assumption about a phenomenon you were seeing with a couple players, and extrapolated that to a wider "rule", but you mistook one cause for another that correlates with it. Objectively, Marner got right around the range that he should have gotten.

We're not going to get anywhere on this. You have brought no evidence to support any of your claims. Your arguments have been debunked. You have dismissed all contradicting evidence and arguments against your claims, and pretended it doesn't exist. You're attempting to dismiss the fundamental act of playmaking, for goodness sake. The best player in the league is a playmaker. The best player off all time was a playmaker. Maybe take the hint.

You've dismissed every comparable (including ones that got more than him) except the one specific one you picked out, because they hurt your argument too much. You've dismissed every stat except the couple specific ones you picked out, because they hurt your argument too much. You've dismissed all critical context and supplementary information, because they hurt your argument too much. There seems to be no discussion left to be had here. If you want to believe that the 6th best pre-signing period earning the 10th highest value contract is some horrible thing so that you can be angry about having one of the best players in the world, then that's your choice. I hope you reflect on all of the information provided to you, in time.

 

[freshwind]

Yes because Marner spends more time on the PK. Also Marner was better than Nylander when they were younger. Now I think you can make the argument Nylander is better. So yes, that additional time has been warrented if we are talking over the career. I’m pretty sure Nylander is perfectly fine with his ice time. He’s very efficient with his ice time. I think currently there is very little difference in ice time. Maybe 30 seconds or less

you mention career ... i am asking about THIS season ...
This year:
ATOI
WN - 18:16
MM - 21:43

regardless of pp, pk or even strength - does mm's play warrant the extra ice time THIS YEAR ?

simple question, no one has answered that one

 

[ACC1224]

you mention career ... i am asking about THIS season ...
This year:
ATOI
WN - 18:16
MM - 21:43

regardless of pp, pk or even strength - does mm's play warrant the extra ice time THIS YEAR ?

simple question, no one has answered that one

Yes, he's played really well in all situations.

 

[notDatsyuk]

you mention career ... i am asking about THIS season ...
This year:
ATOI
WN - 18:16
MM - 21:43

regardless of pp, pk or even strength - does mm's play warrant the extra ice time THIS YEAR ?

simple question, no one has answered that one

I'll answer it again. The difference is mainly PK time - 3 minutes per game. Mitch does it, Willy doesn't.

PP time is the same.

ES time Mitch averages 30 seconds more - considering he's 'top line' and tied to Matty's hip, that's not a surprise.

So, yes, since he PKs, he deserves PK time. The rest is negligible.

Actually, a more pertinent question might be: Willy is only on the second line, but gets more ice time than Knies and a lot more than any other forward - does Willy's play warrent the extra ice time?

I think that's an easier question to answer.

 

[Confucius]

Not only is he our top points producer, he is also our top pk’er. A fact most just ignore. Phhtt who needs D, I guess.

 

[Zybalto]

Where are you seeing the 5v5 stat?

All I can find is that Matthews has been on for 2 even strength goals, and Marner 4.

Via Natural Stat Trick

Even strength stats are OK over a huge sample size I guess but include empty net situations which can skew the intent of the stats and if we are talking about lines, 5v5 data is by far the best way to look at things.

When it comes to looking at the lines 5v5,

Marner/Matthews line: 0 goals given up this year.
Nylander/Domi line: 0 goals given up this year.
Tavares on any line: 1 goal given up all year.
Kampf line: 5 goals given up.

Some of this is good goaltending too of course but we all should be pretty pleased with how things are rolling. Tooling around with the 4th line is the biggest worry I guess.

 

[Legion34]

A player putting the puck into the net gives that player a goal in the stat column, but they are not the sole cause of the goal. Many times, they are not even the primary cause of the goal. That is why other stats are collected - primary and secondary assists - to capture impacts and contributions towards the goal that would otherwise be missed. When you were wrong about Marner, you attempted to isolate "goals" as special, but there is nothing that supports the idea that a goal is more valuable than at the very least a primary assist; in either contract or statistical analysis. You made an assumption about a phenomenon you were seeing with a couple players, and extrapolated that to a wider "rule", but you mistook one cause for another that correlates with it. Objectively, Marner got right around the range that he should have gotten.

We're not going to get anywhere on this. You have brought no evidence to support any of your claims. Your arguments have been debunked. You have dismissed all contradicting evidence and arguments against your claims, and pretended it doesn't exist. You're attempting to dismiss the fundamental act of playmaking, for goodness sake. The best player in the league is a playmaker. The best player off all time was a playmaker. Maybe take the hint.

You've dismissed every comparable (including ones that got more than him) except the one specific one you picked out, because they hurt your argument too much. You've dismissed every stat except the couple specific ones you picked out, because they hurt your argument too much. You've dismissed all critical context and supplementary information, because they hurt your argument too much. There seems to be no discussion left to be had here. If you want to believe that the 6th best pre-signing period earning the 10th highest value contract is some horrible thing so that you can be angry about having one of the best players in the world, then that's your choice. I hope you reflect on all of the information provided to you, in time.

The best player of all time also led the league in goals. McDavid won the rocket. So did Crosby.

You defining players as “playmakers” or “snipers”’or “grinders”‘ has nothing to do with markets or contracts.

Sooooo pages and pages to ignore that goals are the most valuable part of the game and get paid the most.

You Refuse to provide a single historical precedent and no competing independent models or predictions. Every single analyst reported he got too much and was beyond the clearest comparables


You post pages about your theories on playmaking. That has noting to do with market place comparables.

If you are right. Why can you not provide a single peice of evidence.

 

[Jojalu]

Via Natural Stat Trick

Even strength stats are OK over a huge sample size I guess but include empty net situations which can skew the intent of the stats and if we are talking about lines, 5v5 data is by far the best way to look at things.

When it comes to looking at the lines 5v5,

Marner/Matthews line: 0 goals given up this year.
Nylander/Domi line: 0 goals given up this year.
Tavares on any line: 1 goal given up all year.
Kampf line: 5 goals given up.

Some of this is good goaltending too of course but we all should be pretty pleased with how things are rolling. Tooling around with the 4th line is the biggest worry I guess.

Thank you!

 

[Maple Leaf]

You realize you are arguing with Chat GPT right?

how do you use chat gpt

 

[francis246]

you mention career ... i am asking about THIS season ...
This year:
ATOI
WN - 18:16
MM - 21:43

regardless of pp, pk or even strength - does mm's play warrant the extra ice time THIS YEAR ?

simple question, no one has answered that one

You keep ignoring everyone’s answer. The answer is yes. The only extra minutes available is from PK which Willy doesn’t do. There is barely a difference in their EV strength minutes. Less than 30 seconds and it’s dependent on last change and defensive zone start situations. I’m not sure what you’re complaining about honestly?

 

[notbias]

not crying, and i did not mention last night ... that ice time difference is season to date after 6 games ... i asked a simple question ... do you believe his play this year warrants that much additional time?

Penalty killing and not being a defensive liability will likely earn you some more TOI

 

[freshwind]

@francis246 and @notbias

not ignoring - and thank you for a straight answer ... initial few were non-committal

glad to see the +5 defensive liability is getting less ice time that the +1 defensive stalwart

seems everyone is thinking historically when the question I asked related to 6 games only...

now i remember why I don't post often ...

cheers all

 

[notbias]

@francis246 and @notbias

not ignoring - and thank you for a straight answer ... initial few were non-committal

glad to see the +5 defensive liability is getting less ice time that the +1 defensive stalwart

seems everyone is thinking historically when the question I asked related to 6 games only...

now i remember why I don't post often ...

cheers all

All the defensive stats don't agree with you.

 

[francis246]

@francis246 and @notbias

not ignoring - and thank you for a straight answer ... initial few were non-committal

glad to see the +5 defensive liability is getting less ice time that the +1 defensive stalwart

seems everyone is thinking historically when the question I asked related to 6 games only...

now i remember why I don't post often ...

cheers all

Because you’re arguing something that is nonsense. You’re complaining about 3 mins diff in time on ice after 6 games. Where a few of the games the leafs have taken quite a few penalties which means less even strength time and more PK. Willy does not play on the PK, so with a small sample size of 5 or 6 games Marners PK minutes and the fact that the Matthew’s lines gets more defensive starts than Willie’s line will get him more ice time.

Also are we really using plus/minus as the sole indicator of defensive play? Lmao come on, my 5/6th graders that I teach could understand this easily. You’re fussing over nothing. By the end of the year their minutes will be very close as it’s always been.

 

[freshwind]

@francis246 and @notbias

me doth think you protest too much

all i did was ask a simple question

and what "all the defensive stats" are the ones that don't agree with me?

nonsense? lol ... a simple question on a message board sure seems to have some folks worked up

enjoy the game this evening ...