Player Discussion Marner

[ULF_55]

You never did answer my question from yesterday, did you forget? I'll copy paste for you so that you don't have to go searching for it:

Ok Marner's a top 10 player you say, explain something to me then.

Regular season, Marner scores at roughly a 100 point pace.
First 4 games of the playoffs, Marner scores at roughly a 95 point pace.
The rest of the playoffs, Marner scores at roughly a 40 point pace.

How do you explain this?

Not in this discussion, but how does Matthews fair in the playoffs?
Does his scoring dry up after game 4?

 

[francis246]

i ask what mm is doing that justifies 3 minutes 27 seconds per game more ice time than wn?
but i did read above that mm is still the cat's meow it seems - "Easily the most consistent forward this season, been really good if we’re allowed to be honest"

seems the bar is set, for certain individuals it seems the name on the back is more important than the name on the front

Nylander doesn’t PK, that was literally the difference. Why are we crying about 3 minutes. We took a shit ton of penalties and Marner is a primary PK guy on our team. Obviously on nights where we have to PK more Nylanders minutes will be down and Marner’s minutes will be up. It’s not rocket science. No need to cry about it. If not for the penalities I believe Nylander would have definitely lead in ice time last night.

 

[ULF_55]

Leafs have some good players on their team right now.
This century's top 10 goal production:

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not in this discussion, but how does Matthews fair in the playoffs?
Does his scoring dry up after game 4?

I've never taken the time to dig into the numbers. Since it hasn't been a subject of discussion I assume it's not a big issue, at least I haven't seen any mention of it in the Matthews threads.

 

[francis246]

You never did answer my question from yesterday, did you forget? I'll copy paste for you so that you don't have to go searching for it:

Ok Marner's a top 10 player you say, explain something to me then.

Regular season, Marner scores at roughly a 100 point pace.
First 4 games of the playoffs, Marner scores at roughly a 95 point pace.
The rest of the playoffs, Marner scores at roughly a 40 point pace.

How do you explain this?

Couldn’t this be asked of any of the core 4?

 

[sunstersun]

Couldn’t this be asked of any of the core 4?

No actually. Nylander is incredibly consistent across game 1-4 and 5-7.

 

[Legion34]

No, you are just arbitrarily deciding that goals are special without proof. And trying to deny the existence of stats that obviously exist.

Which is right around where he should be.

Goals are special by being literally the entire point of the game. It’s literally the name. The. GOAL

When it comes to post ELC contracts Goals are special because top goal scorers got more more. Ie Nash. Kovalchuk.

I have shown you comparable contracts of comparable times and length. The market was set. Marner got more. Then went back with rantanen.

If your argument is that goals are not worth as much as assists, then maybe they should have called the pass before the puck goes in

The “goal”.

 

[francis246]

Goals are special by being literally the entire point of the game. It’s literally the name. The. GOAL

When it comes to post ELC contracts Goals are special because top goal scorers got more more. Ie Nash. Kovalchuk.

I have shown you comparable contracts of comparable times and length. The market was set. Marner got more. Then went back with rantanen.

If your argument is that goals are not worth as much as assists, then maybe they should have called the pass before the puck goes in

The “goal”.

Yall are still going?! It’s been 3 days

 

[francis246]

No actually. Nylander is incredibly consistent across game 1-4 and 5-7.

Nylander is consistent at about 0.75 and 0.79. It’s still huge drop off from regular season and not good enough. Yes it’s not as bad comparatively to his teammates but in comparison to the rest of the league it’s not great for the amount of money he’s now making.

Last I calculated was before the Boston series so it might be slightly higher like .81 now

 

[Legion34]

Yall are still going?! It’s been 3 days

I don’t know how long it will take to explain that the “goal” of hockey is “goals” but the name isn’t working sooooo it’s been tough

 

[Dekes For Days]

Goals are special by being literally the entire point of the game.

Goals are obtained through both shooting and playmaking.

When it comes to post ELC contracts Goals are special because top goal scorers got more more. Ie Nash. Kovalchuk.

When it comes to post-ELC contracts, there is no evidence that goals are special. Those players also had a high proportion of primary points, which correlate better with contracts.

The market was set. Marner got more.

Marner got the right amount, according to the market history.

If your argument is that goals are not worth as much as assists

Nobody has argued that.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Nylander is consistent at about 0.75 and 0.79. It’s still huge drop off from regular season and not good enough. Yes it’s not as bad comparatively to his teammates but in comparison to the rest of the league it’s not great for the amount of money he’s now making.

Last I calculated was before the Boston series so it might be slightly higher like .81 now

Not sure what your time frame is or where you're getting your numbers from but based on the last 5 years, JT drops off the most, Marner's close behind him, then Matthews drops off less than those 2 but he's still way behind Nylander. He's the only one of our stars who's production hardly drops off at all in the playoffs.

Cliff notes: you're wrong.

 

[Legion34]

Goals are obtained through both shooting and playmaking.

When it comes to post-ELC contracts, there is no evidence that goals are special. Those players also had a high proportion of primary points, which correlate better with contracts.

Marner got the right amount, according to the market history.

Nobody has argued that.

1.) No. Goals are the person who puts the puck in the net. That can be by deflection. End to end rushes etc. there are goals without assists. There are assists without “playmaking” there are no assists without goals

2.) you have provided no proof that primary points are more predictive. Sure a 40 goal 60 assist player is going to get more than a 40 goal 30 pt player. But that’s points.

You have provided zero proof that “primary points” are more predictive or players get docked in contracts for secondary assists

3.) you have not provided any models evidence comparables or expert analysis that Marner was paid correctly. The contract was universally panned.

It’s amazing you quadruple down on anything. Dubas did. He made some mistakes. He got more things right than wrong. But your golden glasses calf was not without flaw.

 

[ACC1224]

I don’t know how long it will take to explain that the “goal” of hockey is “goals” but the name isn’t working sooooo it’s been tough

Most believe the goal is 'wins' I would imagine.

Nylander is consistent at about 0.75 and 0.79. It’s still huge drop off from regular season and not good enough. Yes it’s not as bad comparatively to his teammates but in comparison to the rest of the league it’s not great for the amount of money he’s now making.

Last I calculated was before the Boston series so it might be slightly higher like .81 now

Wouldn't his drop off be less because he scores less during the season?

 

[francis246]

Not sure what your time frame is or where you're getting your numbers from but based on the last 5 years, JT drops off the most, Marner's close behind him, then Matthews drops off less than those 2 but he's still way behind Nylander. He's the only one of our stars who's production hardly drops off at all in the playoffs.

Cliff notes: you're wrong.

Those numbers are up to the 2022-23 season. And no I’m not wrong. I have the data right in front of me, it just doesn’t include the Boston series. Nylander prior to last year went from 0.75 (games 1-4) to 0.79 (games 5-7). Setersun corrected me and said Nylander is consistent and I agreed with him after checking that he is consistent as proven by the numbers above. However, I also said that for what he is paid 0.79 is still a big drop off from his regular season production in comparison to stars around the league that are getting paid in the same range as him.

That goes for all our stars, their drop off is disgusting. Not sure what part of the argument you think I’m wrong in though lol.

Edit* you’re doing the last 5 years for some reason. I’m doing career. Not sure we are capping it at the last 5 years.

 

[ULF_55]

Most believe the goal is 'wins' I would imagine.


Wouldn't his drop off be less because he scores less during the season?

Winning is what counts.

But we all know you can score without an assist, and when you score more goals than the other team you win.

You can have more assists and lose.

But who cares really.

Matthews has to start finishing his opportunities and that is likely to happen (no guarantees in life except death).

Good thing is the team is winning with Matthews shooting at half his shooting percentage.

 

[francis246]

Most believe the goal is 'wins' I would imagine.


Wouldn't his drop off be less because he scores less during the season?

So I wanted to double check all numbers to make sure. Quickly ran them. @sunstersun is right. If you look at career numbers. Nylander is consistent all the way through, playoffs and regular season based on PPG.

You ACC are also technically correct, Nylander does score the least so his drop off would be less but may be more accurate to use the last 3 years where he’s been ppg

 

[Legion34]

Most believe the goal is 'wins' I would imagine.


Wouldn't his drop off be less because he scores less during the season?

And what is literally the only way to win?

 

[ACC1224]

And what is literally the only way to win?

The point is 'wins' are all that matter, not goals.

 

[thewave]

The point is 'wins' are all that matter, not goals.

What is our win record with Marner vs without last season?

 

[Legion34]

The point is 'wins' are all that matter, not goals.

Wins are determined solely and exclusively based on goals, not assists, blocked shots, corsi etc.

 

[ACC1224]

Wins are determined solely and exclusively based on goals, not assists, blocked shots, corsi etc.

Determined yes, achieved is a whole combination of things.

You can score 6 goals and lose. You can score one goal and win.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Those numbers are up to the 2022-23 season. And no I’m not wrong. I have the data right in front of me, it just doesn’t include the Boston series. Nylander prior to last year went from 0.75 (games 1-4) to 0.79 (games 5-7). Setersun corrected me and said Nylander is consistent and I agreed with him after checking that he is consistent as proven by the numbers above. However, I also said that for what he is paid 0.79 is still a big drop off from his regular season production in comparison to stars around the league that are getting paid in the same range as him.

That goes for all our stars, their drop off is disgusting. Not sure what part of the argument you think I’m wrong in though lol.

Edit* you’re doing the last 5 years for some reason. I’m doing career. Not sure we are capping it at the last 5 years.

Maybe that 5 years isn't ideal but it probably makes more sense that just picking the year before last.

Off the top of my head, a good way to do it would be to look at only the last 3 years. Give 50% weight to the most recent season, 30% to the season before that and 20% to the other one. Now it would take some time to do the math obviously but considering how much better Nylander was in this time frame compared to the others, I think he'd still come out looking pretty good.

This was posted by @mjd1001 in Sept 2023.

I rounded my numbers, but the big 4 over the last 5 years in the playoffs:
Matthews: 18% less points per game in the playoffs vs regular season
Marner: 24% less points per game in the playoffs
Nylander: 2% less points per game in the playoffs
Tavares: 27% less points per game in the playoffs.

Bottom line - Marner's regular season money in the back, Nylander's money in the bank in the playoffs.

Determined yes, achieved is a whole combination of things.

You can score 6 goals and lose. You can score one goal and win.

Goals for and goals against, either way we're talking about goals, not a "whole combination of things".

 

[Antropovsky]

Determined yes, achieved is a whole combination of things.

You can score 6 goals and lose. You can score one goal and win.

So I wanted to double check all numbers to make sure. Quickly ran them. @sunstersun is right. If you look at career numbers. Nylander is consistent all the way through, playoffs and regular season based on PPG.

You ACC are also technically correct, Nylander does score the least so his drop off would be less but may be more accurate to use the last 3 years where he’s been ppg

Yea no biggy. Just curious, how many goals does Marner have when the team is facing elimination?

https://x.com/i/web/status/1786211130240573826

 

[GoonieFace]

This is just never ending, like an old school
Savardian spin-a-rama