Player Discussion Marner

[Gary Nylund]

"Show me the money."

"Show me the postseason."

 

[KPower]

Mitch on fire…$14.5x 3 incoming

 

[Legion34]

It's wild that you're talking about "cherry picked stats" when I'm both using (12 in my original comparison alone) and trying to get you to consider a wider range of statistics, and you're refusing to consider anything that isn't the couple stats you arbitrarily picked out. It's wild that you're talking about the "big picture", when I've asked you to look at context, and the bigger picture of contracts and comparables and how Marner slots in, while you demand that we use only one specific comparable in one specific way and ban any context that isn't game number. It's wild that you're talking about proving and supporting things, when I am literally the only one who has done that, and all you do is ignore or dismiss it.

You want the full picture? Sure. Let's break down their entire production so you can see. At time of signing:

Marner.....: 241 GP, 133 points at 5v5, 11 points at 6v5/3v3, ..8 EN points, 65 points at 5v4, 4 points at 5v3, 3 PK points
Rantanen: 239 GP, 108 points at 5v5, 11 points at 6v5/3v3, 12 EN points, 70 points at 5v4, 8 points at 5v3, 0 PK points

And for goals:

Marner.....: 241 GP, 45 goals at 5v5, 2 goals at 6v5/3v3, 4 EN goals, 14 goals at 5v4, 1 goals at 5v3, 1 PK goals
Rantanen: 239 GP, 40 goals at 5v5, 2 goals at 6v5/3v3, 6 EN goals, 29 goals at 5v4, 3 goals at 5v3, 0 PK goals

So how did Rantanen overcome Marner being better at everything to shrink the significant production gap between them and pull ahead in goals?
As we can see, it's exclusively putting pucks into an empty net, and the PP.

Is it because he is better at those things? Nope! He just benefitted from being on the team that got the most PP opportunities in the league (instead of the 27th) and being gifted a lot of additional time in really high scoring game states where time has an insanely high correlation with raw production! And in the case of goals, being the trigger man on the PP, instead of the set up man. It's literally all opportunity that has nothing to do with him, masking his relative deficiencies in ability, performance, and production level.

Double the 5v3 production? You guessed it! Just over double the 5v3 ice time!
Couldn't even keep up at 5v4. Had 39% more 5v4 time, and yet only manages 8% more raw production.
And you think that works in their favour?

While Marner was off using his minutes to help his team on the PK, Rantanen was off getting bonus points in the highest scoring game states, and you expect people to believe that GMs and agents are ignoring stuff like that in negotiations? Come on now. People aren't fools. Know what's hilarious? Marner even had a better penalty differential than Rantanen!

“Bonus points” are points. They still count. Teams still win. Again you have no proof that these situations have any bearing on contracts. Bunting outscored McDavid 5v5 in his contract year. That didn’t get him 12 million.
Drai is a PP merchant. He got the highest aav ever.
Ovy feasts on the PP.
Colorado players still get paid despite their extra pp advantage.

You can argue that he didn’t get used properly. Others can argue his coach didn’t trust him to play with the empty net or more than. 16 minutes a night.

It doesn’t matter. It’s your opinion. You can make a case that he had a more impressive ELC sure. You cannot and have not shown any correlation to the numbers you presented leading to an 18% increase in cap. There is no historical precedent

You cannot show that players who are not on pp 1 or don’t get team pp get higher contracts.

There is no correlation between team PP and contract bumps. You honestly think that an arbitrator says. Welll you produced like a 5 million dollar player but your coach was mean to you and the refs didn’t call penalties for you so here is an extra 18% ???

Really?

marners failure to be good enough to be the trigger man, or his coach to trust him to play more or be on the ice for empty net goals or draw enough powerplays. These are your judgments (maybe correctly) about coaching/reffing flaws.

They could be right but they are not a quantifiable have have no bearing on contracts. In fact TOI is actually a positive for defensmen in arbitration. So if that holds for forwards, Marner would be worth less because he is used less

 

[Antropovsky]

I'm not seeing much of a difference between past Marners and this one. Still playing the perimeter. His game still looks like it doesn't translate to being a game changer in a good way in the playoffs. He's good defensively, but offensively he and Domi look very similarly skilled out there, and Domi had been more productive than Marner 5v5. Last year anf so far this year (Domi had 2.73 p/60 to Marners 2.68).

Take the Marner colored glasses off. Would you pay Domi 11 million? Sure Domi isn't as good defensively, but he's a center and will play in physical areas and has "snot" to his game. Marner has a stronger work ethic, but Domi has more compete to his game. Were those the two things Berube listed as must haves?

 

[DarkKnight]

A touch above what Willie got is fine by me. I'd holdoff on any JT extension for now, he might be headed for a quick regression. Money is there for Mitch, and then some if we play JT smart.

 

[Hellcat]

That's fine. I want him to be good. I was one of the first here to say he is looking quicker than last season. The thing is I am a Leafs fan and so just like I can say with a straight face that the 11.5m WN got was a overpay, MM even at 11m or any more will also be an overpay and it matters.

Obviously more cap means more depth and depth is winning in the NHL

The pain will come when paying MM to twirl comes at the expense of Knies or other depth that breaks through. Like. Sorry Stolarz, we ain't got that extra million the other guy is offering. MM ate it up and we need to make a team here.

Cap will be at $100 mil in half a decade, we have JT's 11 mill going poof this off season, there will be plenty of cap space to sign Marner, he gets what 2 mil more maybe 3 mil more and we save $11 mil on JT? Math becomes pretty easy after that. Teams that have players who over perform their contracts tend to win cups, we saw this in Tampa, we saw this in Florida. The secret may not be give your stars less, but be better at professional scouting. No one was taking Reinhart or Bennett a few years ago, they were dumped in Miami on a Dollar store discount semi trucks... the Leafs were lucky to get Matty, Nylander, Marner only because they were a bad team and finished low in the standings, outside of those 3 players and Hyman, over the last 8 years, we have found zero impact players stick with the team through the draft or free agency or trade, like a Bennett or a Rienhart. If the Leafs Ama/Pro scouting was just two to three players better over the last 8 years... what our stars get paid would be less of a fan fixation. IMO we would have won the cup by now if we had better scouting (and head coaching) ... if's and but's , candies and nuts...

A touch above what Willie got is fine by me. I'd holdoff on any JT extension for now, he might be headed for a quick regression. Money is there for Mitch, and then some if we play JT smart.

12.56 mil, I'm sticking with that number...

I'm not seeing much of a difference between past Marners and this one. Still playing the perimeter. His game still looks like it doesn't translate to being a game changer in a good way in the playoffs. He's good defensively, but offensively he and Domi look very similarly skilled out there, and Domi had been more productive than Marner 5v5. Last year anf so far this year (Domi had 2.73 p/60 to Marners 2.68).

Take the Marner colored glasses off. Would you pay Domi 11 million? Sure Domi isn't as good defensively, but he's a center and will play in physical areas and has "snot" to his game. Marner has a stronger work ethic, but Domi has more compete to his game. Were those the two things Berube listed as must haves?

Marners avg points per year over the last 3 years vs Domi?

 

[notbias]

"Show me the money."

"Show me the postseason."

I wish that this is how negotiations went... too bad this isn't reality, I think there are a handful of contracts heavily influenced by the postseason.

Also, the standard has been set by players who produce less getting massive contracts.

Matthews has been a better postseason player, but Nylander hasn't, so there is your floor and ceiling if you want to use the postseason.

 

[ACC1224]

OK so Point was picked because he is on Coopers team and he is a C... whooptee doo..... If you are Marner and are picked 20th, who cares. More than likely most players would prefer to spend some R & R on the beach vs play in a meaningless cash cow for the NHL. Honestly who freaking cares?



Word salad .... thanks...

NHLers dream of representing their countries at 4 Nations | TSN

Sam Reinhart lived out a childhood dream in June. The Florida Panthers sharpshooter is hoping for another memorable moment this winter.

www.tsn.ca

Bunch of players here seem to think it's important.

 

[GoonieFace]

A touch above what Willie got is fine by me. I'd holdoff on any JT extension for now, he might be headed for a quick regression. Money is there for Mitch, and then some if we play JT smart.

I’d be ok with Tavares at $3mil as a 3rd line centre, anything more than that is probably a mistake.

Marner, I am torn on. If the options are signing him or letting him walk, signing him might be the only option. As much as I harp on him, he is still a very good player and getting nothing for him is a huge loss in itself.

 

[Gabriel426]

OK so Point was picked because he is on Coopers team and he is a C... whooptee doo..... If you are Marner and are picked 20th, who cares. More than likely most players would prefer to spend some R & R on the beach vs play in a meaningless cash cow for the NHL. Honestly who freaking cares?



Word salad .... thanks...

Like I said, what are you on about

 

[Gary Nylund]

I’d be ok with Tavares at $3mil as a 3rd line centre, anything more than that is probably a mistake.

Marner, I am torn on. If the options are signing him or letting him walk, signing him might be the only option. As much as I harp on him, he is still a very good player and getting nothing for him is a huge loss in itself.

I'm torn as well. Letting talent like that walk sucks so not a good option. On the other hand, if he costs 12M+ a year, he really needs to keep contributing after 86 games or he won't be worth it, not for me anyway. People are raving now - oh look how great he's playing but come on now, he's always been regular season money in the bank, that's never been the issue with him so those people praising him to the skies now just look clueless to me.

We're paying Tanev 4.5 million. Imagine that instead of paying Marner 12, we pay two players of roughly the same value as Tanev, one on forward and one on D. No I don't know who those players might be, it's a theoretical question or a thought exercise if you will but with those two guys instead of Marner last spring, I do believe we cruise past Boston pretty handily with cap space to spare.

What if for whatever reason, be it Berube's magic touch or whatever else, Marner becomes a playoff beast next spring? I know some say it's not possible, that his style of play just isn't suited for the playoffs and they might be right, I just don't know though. I'm no expert, how can I be 100% sure it's not something in his head and he can snap out of it? Either way it's gamble, but considering there are so many casual fans who aren't even aware of any downside to Marner's play in the playoffs, I assume he'll be signed and we'll just have to hope for the best.

Like I said, what are you on about

Good question. Seems like someone's gone far off the deep end.

 

[IPS]

What if for whatever reason, be it Berube's magic touch or whatever else, Marner becomes a playoff beast next spring?

We're all hoping for it

 

[HolyCrap]

1)
I go to bed, wake up to find you mocking me for "scurrying away", yes that sounds like the kind of obnoxious comment that's worthy of ridicule. I had to go to the hospital this morning and got back a little while ago, are you going to mock for me that as well?

2)
I have made no "all encompassing statements" about Marner or anyone else. I always look at the big picture which is more that just "3 games each year". You have repeated this nonsense a number of times.

I labelled your original post nonsense, because that's what it was. My position is the same as it's been for some time now, Marner's a fine player for about 86 games a year, then he's mediocre at best. Plus he seems to be trending down, considering he was pretty bad the last two playoff series we played, both of which we lost. Based on the big picture, I don't think Marner's worth 11 million, maybe 9 or so and that's generous considering the premium I place on the playoffs. If I evaluated him based on only "those 3 games" (though season before last it was 8 games, not 3), then I'd say he's worth a lot less than that but that's not what I do, I look at all of it, the good, the bad and the ugly and I say he's worth maybe 9M.

You want "answers" for your original nonsensical post, fine. Here are my answers.



No, I don't, and it's this kind of pointless insult that does nothing but pollute this forum and make you look like a bit of a ... I won't say it.

Some BS, and more insults.


This is a dumb question.


This is another dumb question.

What rules? This is another dumb question.

And yet another dumb question.

I always look at the big picture, and have always acknowledged what a fine player he is most of the times. So once again, more lies and insults from you.

And more insults.

As I said earlier, I'm interested in honest discussion and exchanging thoughts and ideas. You seem to prefer trading insults so I suggest you either start behaving better or stop bothering me.

Why waste your time with that poster? If everyone ignores him he will go away. No point in feeding posters that have agendas. IMHO.

 

[GoonieFace]

I'm torn as well. Letting talent like that walk sucks so not a good option. On the other hand, if he costs 12M+ a year, he really needs to keep contributing after 86 games or he won't be worth it, not for me anyway. People are raving now - oh look how great he's playing but come on now, he's always been regular season money in the bank, that's never been the issue with him so those people praising him to the skies now just look clueless to me.

We're paying Tanev 4.5 million. Imagine that instead of paying Marner 12, we pay two players of roughly the same value as Tanev, one on forward and one on D. No I don't know who those players might be, it's a theoretical question or a thought exercise if you will but with those two guys instead of Marner last spring, I do believe we cruise past Boston pretty handily with cap space to spare.

What if for whatever reason, be it Berube's magic touch or whatever else, Marner becomes a playoff beast next spring? I know some say it's not possible, that his style of play just isn't suited for the playoffs and they might be right, I just don't know though. I'm no expert, how can I be 100% sure it's not something in his head and he can snap out of it? Either way it's gamble, but considering there are so many casual fans who aren't even aware of any downside to Marner's play in the playoffs, I assume he'll be signed and we'll just have to hope for the best.


Good question. Seems like someone's gone far off the deep end.

My first preference would have been to trade him, but that ship has sailed. If there was a guarantee you could spend that cap space on good players that would take up the $12mil cap space, then letting him walk wouldn’t hurt as much. But the problem is, there’s no guarantee.

 

[francis246]

I’d be ok with Tavares at $3mil as a 3rd line centre, anything more than that is probably a mistake.

Marner, I am torn on. If the options are signing him or letting him walk, signing him might be the only option. As much as I harp on him, he is still a very good player and getting nothing for him is a huge loss in itself.

This is my mindset as well. Letting him walk for nothing sucks. At least if you resign him he’s an asset you can move later if things don’t work out. I just think as much as we want more from him letting him go to UFA will be a big mistake because you will not get any sort of value back for him that way. I’m not opposed to him not being a leaf but trading him is the only thing that makes sense.

 

[francis246]

My first preference would have been to trade him, but that ship has sailed. If there was a guarantee you could spend that cap space on good players that would take up the $12mil cap space, then letting him walk wouldn’t hurt as much. But the problem is, there’s no guarantee.

I’ve also been bullish on this. There is def a chance you can use the cap space and hit on your UFA signings. But what do we know of UFA? Most GM’s make their biggest and worst mistakes on July 1st. I would say just based on how UFA normally plays out, it’s more likely you end up spending Marner’s salary worse than if you were to just pay him. It will be a tough decision and big gamble for the leafs. The only way I’d be comfortable is if there was some tampering that McDavid will come in 2 years.

 

[Maple Leaf]

I am anti-marner but I hope he proves the haters wrong