Player Discussion Marner

[Gary Nylund]

"Show me the money."

"Show me the postseason."

 

[KPower]

Mitch on fire…$14.5x 3 incoming

 

[Legion34]

It's wild that you're talking about "cherry picked stats" when I'm both using (12 in my original comparison alone) and trying to get you to consider a wider range of statistics, and you're refusing to consider anything that isn't the couple stats you arbitrarily picked out. It's wild that you're talking about the "big picture", when I've asked you to look at context, and the bigger picture of contracts and comparables and how Marner slots in, while you demand that we use only one specific comparable in one specific way and ban any context that isn't game number. It's wild that you're talking about proving and supporting things, when I am literally the only one who has done that, and all you do is ignore or dismiss it.

You want the full picture? Sure. Let's break down their entire production so you can see. At time of signing:

Marner.....: 241 GP, 133 points at 5v5, 11 points at 6v5/3v3, ..8 EN points, 65 points at 5v4, 4 points at 5v3, 3 PK points
Rantanen: 239 GP, 108 points at 5v5, 11 points at 6v5/3v3, 12 EN points, 70 points at 5v4, 8 points at 5v3, 0 PK points

And for goals:

Marner.....: 241 GP, 45 goals at 5v5, 2 goals at 6v5/3v3, 4 EN goals, 14 goals at 5v4, 1 goals at 5v3, 1 PK goals
Rantanen: 239 GP, 40 goals at 5v5, 2 goals at 6v5/3v3, 6 EN goals, 29 goals at 5v4, 3 goals at 5v3, 0 PK goals

So how did Rantanen overcome Marner being better at everything to shrink the significant production gap between them and pull ahead in goals?
As we can see, it's exclusively putting pucks into an empty net, and the PP.

Is it because he is better at those things? Nope! He just benefitted from being on the team that got the most PP opportunities in the league (instead of the 27th) and being gifted a lot of additional time in really high scoring game states where time has an insanely high correlation with raw production! And in the case of goals, being the trigger man on the PP, instead of the set up man. It's literally all opportunity that has nothing to do with him, masking his relative deficiencies in ability, performance, and production level.

Double the 5v3 production? You guessed it! Just over double the 5v3 ice time!
Couldn't even keep up at 5v4. Had 39% more 5v4 time, and yet only manages 8% more raw production.
And you think that works in their favour?

While Marner was off using his minutes to help his team on the PK, Rantanen was off getting bonus points in the highest scoring game states, and you expect people to believe that GMs and agents are ignoring stuff like that in negotiations? Come on now. People aren't fools. Know what's hilarious? Marner even had a better penalty differential than Rantanen!

“Bonus points” are points. They still count. Teams still win. Again you have no proof that these situations have any bearing on contracts. Bunting outscored McDavid 5v5 in his contract year. That didn’t get him 12 million.
Drai is a PP merchant. He got the highest aav ever.
Ovy feasts on the PP.
Colorado players still get paid despite their extra pp advantage.

You can argue that he didn’t get used properly. Others can argue his coach didn’t trust him to play with the empty net or more than. 16 minutes a night.

It doesn’t matter. It’s your opinion. You can make a case that he had a more impressive ELC sure. You cannot and have not shown any correlation to the numbers you presented leading to an 18% increase in cap.

You cannot show that players who are not on pp 1 or don’t get team pp get higher contracts.

There is no correlation between team PP and contract bumps. You honestly think that an arbitrator says. Welll you produced like a 5 million dollar player but your coach was mean to you and the refs didn’t call penalties for you so here is an extra 18% ???

Really?

 

[Antropovsky]

I'm not seeing much of a difference between past Marners and this one. Still playing the perimeter. His game still looks like it doesn't translate to being a game changer in a good way in the playoffs. He's good defensively, but offensively he and Domi look very similarly skilled out there, and Domi had been more productive than Marner 5v5. Last year anf so far this year (Domi had 2.73 p/60 to Marners 2.68).

Take the Marner colored glasses off. Would you pay Domi 11 million? Sure Domi isn't as good defensively, but he's a center and will play in physical areas and has "snot" to his game. Marner has a stronger work ethic, but Domi has more compete to his game. Were those the two things Berube listed as must haves?

 

[DarkKnight]

A touch above what Willie got is fine by me. I'd holdoff on any JT extension for now, he might be headed for a quick regression. Money is there for Mitch, and then some if we play JT smart.

 

[Hellcat]

That's fine. I want him to be good. I was one of the first here to say he is looking quicker than last season. The thing is I am a Leafs fan and so just like I can say with a straight face that the 11.5m WN got was a overpay, MM even at 11m or any more will also be an overpay and it matters.

Obviously more cap means more depth and depth is winning in the NHL

The pain will come when paying MM to twirl comes at the expense of Knies or other depth that breaks through. Like. Sorry Stolarz, we ain't got that extra million the other guy is offering. MM ate it up and we need to make a team here.

Cap will be at $100 mil in half a decade, we have JT's 11 mill going poof this off season, there will be plenty of cap space to sign Marner, he gets what 2 mil more maybe 3 mil more and we save $11 mil on JT? Math becomes pretty easy after that. Teams that have players who over perform their contracts tend to win cups, we saw this in Tampa, we saw this in Florida. The secret may not be give your stars less, but be better at professional scouting. No one was taking Reinhart or Bennett a few years ago, they were dumped in Miami on a Dollar store discount semi trucks... the Leafs were lucky to get Matty, Nylander, Marner only because they were a bad team and finished low in the standings, outside of those 3 players and Hyman, over the last 8 years, we have found zero impact players stick with the team through the draft or free agency or trade, like a Bennett or a Rienhart. If the Leafs Ama/Pro scouting was just two to three players better over the last 8 years... what our stars get paid would be less of a fan fixation. IMO we would have won the cup by now if we had better scouting (and head coaching) ... if's and but's , candies and nuts...

A touch above what Willie got is fine by me. I'd holdoff on any JT extension for now, he might be headed for a quick regression. Money is there for Mitch, and then some if we play JT smart.

12.56 mil, I'm sticking with that number...

I'm not seeing much of a difference between past Marners and this one. Still playing the perimeter. His game still looks like it doesn't translate to being a game changer in a good way in the playoffs. He's good defensively, but offensively he and Domi look very similarly skilled out there, and Domi had been more productive than Marner 5v5. Last year anf so far this year (Domi had 2.73 p/60 to Marners 2.68).

Take the Marner colored glasses off. Would you pay Domi 11 million? Sure Domi isn't as good defensively, but he's a center and will play in physical areas and has "snot" to his game. Marner has a stronger work ethic, but Domi has more compete to his game. Were those the two things Berube listed as must haves?

Marners avg points per year over the last 3 years vs Domi?