Player Discussion Marner

[Nineteen67]

I totally buy into Treliving and Berube’s plan and vision for how the team plays but when I continually see the core group ignoring the physicality the games call for it gives me PTSD. I like what they’ve done on the back end. They’ll still need to insulate Riellly against heavier teams but they now have decent depth back there with some size and snarl. The forward group is still a concern. When second year pro Matthews Knies (who I love BTW) is their most physical forward, they will struggle to get out of their division in the playoffs. You’re right though. Hope is all we have to hang our hats on because they don’t have a track record to back it up.

Agree, except Knies is their biggest forward and needs to be their most physical player. I’d like to see him balance on the edge between clean and suspension worthy.
Matthews and Marner need to be physical when it’s necessary.

 

[Ports]

Ya everyone knows international sport is fueled on rivalries generated by past regional wars. We just need some of those to make international team sports great again.

/s

Who cares if Marner is on some gimmicky team. He is slow though so I imagine he will be a later pick.

As far as his new contract goes. If they give him an NMC and overpay, the organization should be seen as blowing its collective brains out.

I don’t know if I’m being paranoid but a lot ofToronto sports radio pundits are suggesting that discussions are taking place and the Leafs will be signing Marner. They just need to arrive at a dollar amount and term they’re comfortable with. The same is being said about Tavares. Why in the world would they re-sign either of them before they see how they perform in the playoffs if at all ? If this nightmare comes to fruition this team won’t be challenging for a cup in the next five years.

Agree, except Knies is their biggest forward and needs to be their most physical player. I’d like to see him balance on the edge between clean and suspension worthy.
Matthews and Marner need to be physical when it’s necessary.

So far Knies is playing things pretty smart. He’s using his size and strength without taking stupid penalties. Will the core five show any pushback ? I sure hope so but have my doubts.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Agree, except Knies is their biggest forward and needs to be their most physical player. I’d like to see him balance on the edge between clean and suspension worthy.
Matthews and Marner need to be physical when it’s necessary.

If we're counting on Marner being physical, we may as well fuggedaboudit right now.

I don’t know if I’m being paranoid but a lot ofToronto sports radio pundits are suggesting that discussions are taking place and the Leafs will be signing Marner. They just need to arrive at a dollar amount and term they’re comfortable with. The same is being said about Tavares. Why in the world would they re-sign either of them before they see how they perform in the playoffs if at all ? If this nightmare comes to fruition this team won’t be challenging for a cup in the next five years.

So far Knies is playing things pretty smart. He’s using his size and strength without taking stupid penalties. Will the core five show any pushback ? I sure hope so but have my doubts.

Agree with every word, especially the bolded.

 

[Gabriel426]

I don’t know if I’m being paranoid but a lot ofToronto sports radio pundits are suggesting that discussions are taking place and the Leafs will be signing Marner. They just need to arrive at a dollar amount and term they’re comfortable with. The same is being said about Tavares. Why in the world would they re-sign either of them before they see how they perform in the playoffs if at all ? If this nightmare comes to fruition this team won’t be challenging for a cup in the next five years.


So far Knies is playing things pretty smart. He’s using his size and strength without taking stupid penalties. Will the core five show any pushback ? I sure hope so but have my doubts.

If I am MGT, I would work on the Knies extension before anything else. The rate he is going, he is slowly getting into the Laf’s territory as they both are not on PP while producing.
JT is not going anywhere, keeping the conversation is more respect more than anything. Same with MM.
However, both of those contracts should not be sign till after the playoffs.
Bc if the team fail and crash out again, what’s the point having the same top players again.

 

[thewave]

I don’t know if I’m being paranoid but a lot ofToronto sports radio pundits are suggesting that discussions are taking place and the Leafs will be signing Marner. They just need to arrive at a dollar amount and term they’re comfortable with. The same is being said about Tavares. Why in the world would they re-sign either of them before they see how they perform in the playoffs if at all ? If this nightmare comes to fruition this team won’t be challenging for a cup in the next five years.


So far Knies is playing things pretty smart. He’s using his size and strength without taking stupid penalties. Will the core five show any pushback ? I sure hope so but have my doubts.

I think if they sign JT and Marner it's because they want to sell jerseys and false hope to dopes with thick wallets.

 

[keonsbitterness]

You probably would have had better luck with this incorrect narrative that nobody has said if you hadn't started out by posting a quote from the agent contradicting it.

 

[francis246]

This was the part of your post that I bolded because I was questioning it:
The players were not going to agree to the next CBA without it.

And this was my question:
I find this hard to believe. Olympics sure, but this gimmicky nations thing? You have a source for this?

I'm sure some players are looking forward to this event, but I don't think the level of interest is anywhere near what it is for the Olympics, this is because the Olympics are 1000 times bigger in every way than this gimmicky Nations Cup. I have heard that the Olympics was a part of the CBA talks which makes sense. I have not heard that this Nations Cup was a part of the CBA negotiations, I doubt that this is true which is why I asked you where you're getting this from. I did not ask you what the players think, what the money will be used for or anything else.

You either have a source, or you don't. If you can back up your statement then I'm wrong, simple as that but I think maybe you got this gimmick tourney confused with the Olympics.

The players want international hockey. Yes it was a big contention point in CBA negotiations. NHL countered with four nations to appease the players but then the IIHF jumped in and offered to cover some of the cost for the Olympics, so everyone ended up winning.

I’m not going to spend all day looking for sources, I’m working. I don’t work from home. You can listen to Marty Walsh, you can listen to multiple agents who have spoken about this. You can listen to the many players who have spoken about this. I listen to multiple hockey podcasts a day/week, this topic has been broached 1000x times in just about every podcast for the last two years. You can pick anyone and find an episode on those topics. I just provided you proof of players who want to be at the 4 nations. Through the CBC article where many stars spoke to wanting to participate. Also there was a quote by David Pastrnak who was extremely pissed after Czech won the world championships where he stated he finds it disrespectful that Czech was not invited to participate in a bigger World Cup event. And felt Czech should be apart.

Marty Walsh himself has been very vocal about the players wanting international hockey back. It was the first piece of business he took care of once he was voted in as head of NHLPA. That should tell you the level of importance international hockey has for the players.

I have no idea who you’re referencing about they don’t want to go/be picked. I’ve never seen that reported or even talked about. All the stars want to be there and that’s what matters at the end of the day.

 

[Ports]

I think if they sign JT and Marner it's because they want to sell jerseys and false hope to dopes with thick wallets.

Probably true and also because they have no balls. Can’t imagine the Bruins, Tampa or Vegas continuing to run it back like Shanahan has. Those organizations and several others all have a winning culture and don’t accept failure or mediocrity for very long.

 

[notbias]

My favourite part of this thread is everyone saying Nylander is the best and just wait til Berube comes in and Marner gets benched... and now Nylander is being played less because Berube thinks Marner is more of a complete player and better.

 

[Antropovsky]

So this team lives or dies on Marner’s stick. If the opposition can hold him off the scoreboard we lose.

He makes 13% of the cap... and his play effects Matthews who makes more than 13% so of course his play has a big effect on the win loss column.

Last season by January, Marner had a negative effect on his team goal creation. His impact was just above the average skater...yet he makes 11 million. What's the average nhl player makes 3 million.

care to comment, @francis246 and @Confucius on the info from the article I've posted below (from last year January?)

Mitch Marner is scoring, but is there enough substance to his game this season?
Not only are the Leafs creating less in Marner’s minutes compared to previous seasons, but it’s also relative to his teammates this season. He’s rarely had a negative influence on his team’s expected goal creation, but this year it’s down to minus-0.17 per 60.

Marner’s impact, relative to the average skater when accounting for his role, usage, and coaching, is still slightly above average as the heat maps reflect below (the top row is offense/bottom row defense, with red showing areas of more expected goal generation). But he’s someone the Leafs count on to be more than slightly above average — he’s expected to be a game-breaker, along with Nylander and Matthews.

 

[francis246]

My understanding is that the players wanted the Olympics and the NHL countered with the four nations cashgrab (all money going to the NHL).

My understanding is the players wanted international hockey. The return to the Olympics was always a pipe dream. The players wanted some sort of best on best competition every two years to replace going to the Olympics because the NHL was unwilling to pay for the players to go. Marty Walsh gets hired and they begin negotiating and then the NHL and the IIHF come to an agreement to split costs or whatever they’ve agreed to. So the players ended up getting both. But originally the hope was just to have a best on best every two years, not even Olympic participation.

 

[francis246]

I think if they sign JT and Marner it's because they want to sell jerseys and false hope to dopes with thick wallets.

I don’t think JT is coming back unless it’s a very cheap deal. I think leafs will spend assets to grab a center. Have to think Scott Laughton is high on their radar.

 

[notbias]

He makes 13% of the cap... and his play effects Matthews who makes more than 13% so of course his play has a big effect on the win loss column.

Last season by January, Marner had a negative effect on his team goal creation. His impact was just above the average skater...yet he makes 11 million. What's the average nhl player makes 3 million.

care to comment, @francis246 and @Confucius on the info from the article I've posted below (from last year January?)

Mitch Marner is scoring, but is there enough substance to his game this season?
Not only are the Leafs creating less in Marner’s minutes compared to previous seasons, but it’s also relative to his teammates this season. He’s rarely had a negative influence on his team’s expected goal creation, but this year it’s down to minus-0.17 per 60.

Marner’s impact, relative to the average skater when accounting for his role, usage, and coaching, is still slightly above average as the heat maps reflect below (the top row is offense/bottom row defense, with red showing areas of more expected goal generation). But he’s someone the Leafs count on to be more than slightly above average — he’s expected to be a game-breaker, along with Nylander and Matthews.

That's nice, but Berube is giving him the most ice-time out of anyone on this team, including defenders... turns out he thinks your analysis is wrong.

 

[Confucius]

He makes 13% of the cap... and his play effects Matthews who makes more than 13% so of course his play has a big effect on the win loss column.

Last season by January, Marner had a negative effect on his team goal creation. His impact was just above the average skater...yet he makes 11 million. What's the average nhl player makes 3 million.

care to comment, @francis246 and @Confucius on the info from the article I've posted below (from last year January?)

Mitch Marner is scoring, but is there enough substance to his game this season?
Not only are the Leafs creating less in Marner’s minutes compared to previous seasons, but it’s also relative to his teammates this season. He’s rarely had a negative influence on his team’s expected goal creation, but this year it’s down to minus-0.17 per 60.

Marner’s impact, relative to the average skater when accounting for his role, usage, and coaching, is still slightly above average as the heat maps reflect below (the top row is offense/bottom row defense, with red showing areas of more expected goal generation). But he’s someone the Leafs count on to be more than slightly above average — he’s expected to be a game-breaker, along with Nylander and Matthews.

Well there is nobody else on the team where the stats point out so obviously if he gets 0 points we lose if he gets even a single point we win. And he only accounts for 13% of the cap. Don’t care about last season, can’t do much about spilt milk.

 

[Racer88]

My favourite part of this thread is everyone saying Nylander is the best and just wait til Berube comes in and Marner gets benched... and now Nylander is being played less because Berube thinks Marner is more of a complete player and better.

Willy has responded by producing more and is a plus 5 players with 6 goals and 4 assist but Marner has 1 goal and 10 assist and is a Minus 1.
The only minus player I think among the top 6 or so scorer on the team.
What’s up with that?

 

[francis246]

Willy has responded by producing more and is a plus 5 players with 6 goals and 4 assist but Marner has 1 goal and 10 assist and is a Minus 1.
The only minus player I think among the top 6 or so scorer on the team.
What’s up with that?

Plus minus should never be a stat used to argue anything. Even if Marner was a +10 I’d have the same stance. It doesn’t really tell you anything. You can get a plus or minus just for completing a line change at the right or wrong time. xGF and xGA are better stats to use imo.

 

[Leafsfan74]

If they re-sign Marner in particular, it is MLSE telling the world "we aren't interested in winning a Cup" and I will applaud them for their honesty by saying they will get their wish. It's that simple really.

JT at a workable cap hit (much lower obviously) with no trade protection is worth entertaining. Though for me entertaining means 50% chance, Leafs need new and cheaper blood.

 

[Antropovsky]

That's nice, but Berube is giving him the most ice-time out of anyone on this team, including defenders... turns out he thinks your analysis is wrong.

...lol What's your point? Jonathon Drouin is averaging the same time per game as Marner.

He makes 2.5 million.

Should Colorado pay him 11 million?

Trochek is #4 in TOI, and he makes 5.6 million per year. He plays more than Panarin...should he make more than Panarin? Is he better than Panarin?

 

[notbias]

Willy has responded by producing more and is a plus 5 players with 6 goals and 4 assist but Marner has 1 goal and 10 assist and is a Minus 1.
The only minus player I think among the top 6 or so scorer on the team.
What’s up with that?

Producing more? He has fewer points.

Nylander has an insane PDO and on-ice shooting %...

Nylander has performed worse than his point totals this year.

...lol What's your point? Jonathon Drouin is averaging the same time per game as Marner.

He makes 2.5 million.

Should Colorado pay him 11 million?

Trochek is #4 in TOI, and he makes 5.6 million per year. He plays more than Panarin...should he make more than Panarin? Is he better than Panarin?

This doesn't seem relevant... but nice try.

 

[Confucius]

Plus minus should never be a stat used to argue anything. Even if Marner was a +10 I’d have the same stance. It doesn’t really tell you anything. You can get a plus or minus just for completing a line change at the right or wrong time. xGF and xGA are better stats to use imo.

I think that is the concensus, when I pointed out Mitch was +11 over the last 3 playoff seasons, leading the team. I was told it meant nothing, so….

 

[Antropovsky]

Well there is nobody else on the team where the stats point out so obviously if he gets 0 points we lose if he gets even a single point we win. And he only accounts for 13% of the cap. Don’t care about last season, can’t do much about spilt milk.

Last year the same posters were comparing him to Gretzky... yet he was actually having a NEGATIVE effect on goal creation for his lines and an impact of SLIGHTLY better than the AVERAGE nhl player for his team.

Keep in mind, this was from the last SEASON. Imagine how much worse it gets for him in the postseason!

 

[notbias]

@Antropovsky See you removed the post... but yes, I never brought up contracts, you did.

No one brought up the contract, just you.

I ignore most of your posts, they are a Mess level of pointlessness.

Just pointed out that Berube thinks your hatred of Marner is idiotic, he seems to like him more than anyone on the team.

 

[Antropovsky]

@Antropovsky See you removed the post... but yes, I never brought up contracts, you did.

No one brought up the contract, just you.

I ignore most of your posts, they are a Mess level of pointlessness.

Just pointed out that Berube thinks your hatred of Marner is idiotic, he seems to like him more than anyone on the team.

I removed it because I dislike how the message board automatically attaches posts when they're made back-to-back. My plan was to repost it later.

No one is saying Marner sucks. You and a few others keep pushing this narrative that critics "hate" him. It’s an easier target because you know it's harder to argue against what we actually think: "He's incredibly overpaid, and that money could be better allocated elsewhere."

When analytics show that last year he negatively affected goal creation and that his impact was only slightly above the average player (average players make $3 million, he makes $11 million), you ignored it. Instead, you resort to childish comments like, "That's nice, Berube likes him."

Okay, so Ill played along. Here it is:

... Bednar uses Drouin just as much as Berube is using Marner, but Drouin makes $2.5 million.

What's your point, and how is it relevant to my post that YOU responded to?

 

[notbias]

I removed it because I dislike how the message board automatically attaches posts when they're made back-to-back. My plan was to repost it later.

No one is saying Marner sucks. You and a few others keep pushing this narrative that critics "hate" him. It’s an easier target because you know it's harder to argue against what we actually think: "He's incredibly overpaid, and that money could be better allocated elsewhere."

When analytics show that last year he negatively affected goal creation and that his impact was only slightly above the average player (average players make $3 million, he makes $11 million), you ignored it. Instead, you resort to childish comments like, "That's nice, Berube likes him."

Okay, so Ill played along. Here it is:

... Bednar uses Drouin just as much as Berube is using Marner, but Drouin makes $2.5 million.

What's your point, and how is it relevant to my post that YOU responded to?

Here is how cherry-picked your stats are.

Drouin has played one game and is 5th on his team in TOI.

All you do is find very specific stats that paint Marner in a bad light but don't show overall impact, and then say "see!".

Here are two you haven't addressed and I'd like you to.

You brought up the impact of linemates and how important it is.

How overrated are Point, Draisaitl, and Rantanen? They all arguably play with a better player than Matthews.

You bring up goals often with Marner, so how much better is Matthews than McDavid?

 

[thewave]

@Antropovsky See you removed the post... but yes, I never brought up contracts, you did.

No one brought up the contract, just you.

I ignore most of your posts, they are a Mess level of pointlessness.

Just pointed out that Berube thinks your hatred of Marner is idiotic, he seems to like him more than anyone on the team.

Nobody hates Mitch Marner. You keep saying that it's hatred but it isn't and that is really a really strange thing to do.

You lose all credibility when you attempt to lump people that dislike his contract and style of play with haters. I mean he has a personality sort of like a young thin geeky Trump where he never accepts fault or admits to his shortcomings but even still, people here are not hating on him.