Marner Predictions - What Happens Now

[ACC1224]

true, I also see the argument people making of the risk as he was almost a 70 point player and 8.5 would’ve been a lot, but I’d much rather bet on a guy long term, especially for a player of marners hype and skill at the time.

At worst you get a Nick Suzuki/Cole caufield contract, which is fair value. At best you are looking at a draisaitl/Jack Hughes steal

Yep, seems this team always comes out on the wrong side of those things.

 

[rumman]

But the NHL only has 1 winner, unless you're talking King's Plate/Triple Crown, lots of winners at the track.

It will always be the Queens Plate to me, Chuckles can’t hold a candle to his mother, and never will in my eyes………

 

[Sypher04]

true, I also see the argument people making of the risk as he was almost a 70 point player and 8.5 would’ve been a lot, but I’d much rather bet on a guy long term, especially for a player of marners hype and skill at the time.

At worst you get a Nick Suzuki/Cole caufield contract, which is fair value. At best you are looking at a draisaitl/Jack Hughes steal

There’s no definitive proof that was ever a thing though. We have nothing but conflicting reports from that time period. Some say that deal was turned down, others say Marner never had any intention of signing until he saw Matthews’ number. Who knows what is the truth, but based on how things played out the latter seems entirely likely.

 

[ACC1224]

There’s no definitive proof that was ever a thing though. We have nothing but conflicting reports from that time period. Some say that deal was turned down, others say Marner never had any intention of signing until he saw Matthews’ number. Who knows what is the truth, but based on how things played out the latter seems entirely likely.

Things can be true without 'definitive proof'. It's up to the individual whether they choose to believe them or not.

Once the deal was turned down, negotiations were off the table until the next off season.
Dubas then decided to sign Matthews first which then led to Marner having that as a comparison.

 

[Sypher04]

Things can be true without 'definitive proof'. It's up to the individual whether they choose to believe them or not.

Once the deal was turned down, negotiations were off the table until the next off season.
Dubas then decided to sign Matthews first which then led to Marner having that as a comparison.

yes, they can. But when there are conflicting reports from the exact same time period, you can’t state one or the other with any confidence or so matter of factly.

We just don’t know.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Of course it’s reality. So what that he took a 12 year deal? It still keeps the cap down for his team and there really wasn’t much concern about him not living up to that contract through its entirety.

12 year deals aren’t possible anymore but our stars don’t even take 8 year deals. Matthews is out here taking short deals to maximize his earnings.

Also, highest paid late 30s player? Yeah of course he is - he’s the best we’ve seen in a long time. There are no comparables to him in recent times at his age. He’s still producing amongst some of the top in the league and is underpaid.

Stop justifying our GMs’ horrible negotiating ability and the greediness of our players.

Not necessarily true. Nylander and Rielly both signed 8 year deals, and Tavares signed for 7, which was his max.

I agree about the other two.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Meh. this will be the least inspiring for me as a Leafs fan. Have little interest in this core.

Crosby showed what a winner does when he took a discount to stay with the Pens. Yes past his prime but he is still a $10M+ player on the open market.

There is a reason he will retire and have multiple Cup rings to show off to others while Leaf players in all likelihood will have an NHL Almanac to pass around and show off their regular season stats.

For the record, Crosbys name will also be all over that same book.

The difference between winners and losers. Jordan took less than he was worth for years (until he finally received a $25M a year contract), the endorsements he picks up for being a 6 time champion more than made up for it.

 

[Sypher04]

I am really not fussed about Matthews term. At all. I bet he re-signs here at that point, and I bet at that point he will want longer term.

He’s at 13.25M now, he will be 31 by the first year of his next deal. So let’s say his last deal is 6 or even 8 years, cool you’re buying several mid 30s+ years and his cap hit is going to reflect that. Even with rising cap I don’t think it’s going to be an overly meaningful difference from 31-35 this route vs him having signed 8 years now.

 

[ACC1224]

yes, they can. But when there are conflicting reports from the exact same time period, you can’t state one or the other with any confidence or so matter of factly.

We just don’t know.

I believe what I know because I trust where the information comes from.
I understand people people skeptical, I would be as well.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yep, how good would Marners 8.5x8 that Dubas declined look right now?

Imaginary contracts that never existed do tend to look good, but two big parts of Crosby's contract looking good were the 12 year term and the rapidly rising cap, which even with your imaginary contract, we still wouldn't have.

 

[Racer88]

If the choice was Crosby at 11 or Marner at 8.7 I'd still pick Crosby.

Me too 10 times out of 10

 

[ULF_55]

true, I also see the argument people making of the risk as he was almost a 70 point player and 8.5 would’ve been a lot, but I’d much rather bet on a guy long term, especially for a player of marners hype and skill at the time.

At worst you get a Nick Suzuki/Cole caufield contract, which is fair value. At best you are looking at a draisaitl/Jack Hughes steal

So if he signed an offersheet for 3 first round picks maybe history is kinder to Matthews?

 

[Aashir Mallik]

So if he signed an offersheet for 3 first round picks maybe history is kinder to Matthews?

I’m a bit confused what you mean?

My point was I rather lock up a guy long term and allow him to grow into the contract a bit vs whatever the hell we did

 

[ULF_55]

I’m a bit confused what you mean?

My point was I rather lock up a guy long term and allow him to grow into the contract a bit vs whatever the hell we did

Point is that speculation is all in the past, and now in the present it's been all failure in big games.

So why not go with the other speculation that there was an offersheet considered.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

Point is that speculation is all in the past, and now in the present it's been all failure in big games.

So why not go with the other speculation that there was an offersheet considered.

Fair enough, when you have the talent we have and the results we have it’s easy to go down the speculations path

as for now, hopefully we don’t repeat the same mistakes with him as a UFA

 

[IPS]

Imaginary contracts that never existed do tend to look good, but two big parts of Crosby's contract looking good were the 12 year term and the rapidly rising cap, which even with your imaginary contract, we still wouldn't have.

Yeah holds about as much credibility as your imaginary $10.5M x 5 offersheet that was allegedly coming Marner's way.

 

[Racer88]

Meh. this will be the least inspiring for me as a Leafs fan. Have little interest in this core.

Crosby showed what a winner does when he took a discount to stay with the Pens. Yes past his prime but he is still a $10M+ player on the open market.

There is a reason he will retire and have multiple Cup rings to show off to others while Leaf players in all likelihood will have an NHL Almanac to pass around and show off their regular season stats.

For the record, Crosbys name will also be all over that same book.

The difference between winners and losers. Jordan took less than he was worth for years (until he finally received a $25M a year contract), the endorsements he picks up for being a 6 time champion more than made up for it.

You are 100% correct

Fair enough, when you have the talent we have and the results we have it’s easy to go down the speculations path

as for now, hopefully we don’t repeat the same mistakes with him as a UFA

Maybe we are over rating their talent. Maybe this is just who they are…..good but not good enough. 8 years of playoff failure speaks to this being true

 

[Aashir Mallik]

You are 100% correct


Maybe we are over rating their talent. Maybe this is just who they are…..good but not good enough. 8 years of playoff failure speaks to this being true

Regular season talent aside, since that obvious, there’s a bit of truth to what you say however
that’s also by putting each of them together so it amplifies. We have 3/4 playoff shrinkers, if we had 1 then it would probably be a different story.

Imagine nylander for landeskog/nichuskin on Colorado instead of here
Imagine Matthews for point on tampa instead of here
Imagine Marner for reinhart on florida
Tavares for Hyman on Edmonton

We don’t have a guy who picks the others up and amplifies their play and on the scoresheet, we have 3 guys who need someone to do that. We also don’t have elite depth to overcome the core 4 striking out, which is partly their fault and also partly managements

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yeah holds about as much credibility as your imaginary $10.5M x 5 offersheet that was allegedly coming Marner's way.

Having a discussion at one point about what the confirmed offer sheets could look like to stay under the threshold is not the same as spending years spreading a false claim about a specific contract being offered and declined, that contradicts all other information and reporting.

 

[Racer88]

Regular season talent aside, since that obvious, there’s a bit of truth to what you say however
that’s also by putting each of them together so it amplifies. We have 3/4 playoff shrinkers, if we had 1 then it would probably be a different story.

Imagine nylander for landeskog/nichuskin on Colorado instead of here
Imagine Matthews for point on tampa instead of here
Imagine Marner for reinhart on florida
Tavares for Hyman on Edmonton

We don’t have a guy who picks the others up and amplifies their play and on the scoresheet, we have 3 guys who need someone to do that. We also don’t have elite depth to overcome the core 4 striking out, which is partly their fault and also partly managements

Absolutely. They are great at getting empty calorie points but none of them rise up when it really matters.
Then we have the narrative that they are almost point per game in the playoffs so let’s blame the lower paid and the min wage players.

Assist should only count for 1/2 point being as there are generally 2 for every goal scored.
Is is a lot harder to actually get the puck in the net then simply pass it to the guy who can score

 

[KPower]

He’s turning 28 in May so doubtful he signs for 5 years.

I’m expecting 2 years or 8 years.

My prediction is 8x $12.5.

 

[rumman]

He’s turning 28 in May so doubtful he signs for 5 years.

I’m expecting 2 years or 8 years.

My prediction is 8x $12.5.

What team is signing him to 8x12.5?

 

[Da Mash]

Its very simple....he resigns or he walks in FA

He wont waive and he shouldnt waive....and fans will treat him like Sundin when he wanted to stay but Fletcher and the media made him look like a bad guy.

Same thing will happen with Marner.....but hopefully Tre has more respect then Fletcher did

Why do GM's like Tre give out NMC in contracts if their intentions later on is too trade them for assets? AM and Willy just got them....if Marner resigns....he will get one too.

 

[ACC1224]

Its very simple....he resigns or he walks in FA

He wont waive and he shouldnt waive....and fans will treat him like Sundin when he wanted to stay but Fletcher and the media made him look like a bad guy.

Same thing will happen with Marner.....but hopefully Tre has more respect then Fletcher did

Why do GM's like Tre give out NMC in contracts if their intentions later on is too trade them for assets? AM and Willy just got them....if Marner resigns....he will get one too.

Safe to say, Treliving will handle things much better that Fletcher did.

 

[Madap]

Not necessarily true. Nylander and Rielly both signed 8 year deals, and Tavares signed for 7, which was his max.

I agree about the other two.

Yeah I guess my comment was more in the spirit of helping him somehow rather than just 8 years. Tavares and Rielly took discounts it seems.

Nylander did sign for 8 years but certainly no discount.