Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[biotk]

I think we need to move away from "shutdown" lines this year. Move Marner with Matthews making his line better offensively without the defensive vulnerability. Then put Nylander with Tavares and Hyman to give them a more speed and offensive flair. Stop sheltering Matthews and run that line regardless of what the other coach throws on the ice. Nylander will be insane if he plays with puck getters like Hyman and Tavares where he can play the perimeter game.

Matthews and Marner have played with each other for more than 200 minutes at 5v5 over the course of their career. They stink together. There has been no worse linemate for Matthews....ever. And I mean that. Among players who have played more than 200 minutes 5v5 with Matthews, Matthews has been less productive with two players: Hunwick and Polak - but even then he had better underlying numbers with them. CF% with Marner: 47.17%. 46.61 SH%. 41.18% GF% and they did that with 71.88% offensive zone starts. And while Matthews' 2.07 P/60 while with Marner is bad for him. Marner's 1.03 P/60 with Matthews is dreadful for anyone. Matthews and Nylander have produced very well together with very good underlying stats. Marner and Tavares have produced very well together.

Matthews has also never been sheltered. The previous season his QoC was among the very highest in the league. Just because he wasn't used the same way last year doesn't mean he was sheltered.

 

[crump]

No reason for marner to even talk to the leafs until after he's heard from other teams.

Even if there's no official offer sheet, just knowing teams ate willing to go to double digits will force the leafs hand.

Funny this is another example of the young GMs ineffective communication style. He said after the season it was vital they get marner done in June. Doesn't look like that will happen and unless nobody shows interest in marner, it's going to cost us.

Wonder how much he wishes he took that $9M x 8 offer the marner camp pitched last summer. Big league mistake. Big league.

Marner must talk with the Leafs first...that's what being an RFA means.
"The deadline for teams to send their RFAs qualifying offers is the day following the NHL draft (June 29). On that same date, RFAs can begin contract talks with rival teams."

 

[m1ker]

Matthews and Marner have played with each other for more than 200 minutes at 5v5 over the course of their career. They stink together. There has been no worse linemate for Matthews....ever. And I mean that. Among players who have played more than 200 minutes 5v5 with Matthews, Matthews has been less productive with two players: Hunwick and Polak - but even then he had better underlying numbers with them. CF% with Marner: 47.17%. 46.61 SH%. 41.18% GF% and they did that with 71.88% offensive zone starts. And while Matthews' 2.07 P/60 while with Marner is bad for him. Marner's 1.03 P/60 with Matthews is dreadful for anyone. Matthews and Nylander have produced very well together with very good underlying stats. Marner and Tavares have produced very well together.

Matthews has also never been sheltered. The previous season his QoC was among the very highest in the league. Just because he wasn't used the same way last year doesn't mean he was sheltered.

When have they played 11 games together? From what I noticed, for whatever reason, it takes Matthews more than the average player's time to build chemistry with his line mates.

And to your other points, Matthews Nylander have not consistently produced well together in meaningful games and are always split up. If Marner is playing with Tavares that easily makes them a shut down line that plays against top opposition. I think the culture has to change, Matthews has got to start being the guy but he never will be with Nylander beside him defensively.

Matthews has another level of compete that I don't think we seen yet because of babs

 

[Notsince67]

How is it leverage if there's no formal offer sheet? No one is going to overpay Marner by several million dollars AND pay 4 1sts for the privilege of doing so, it's a non-threat. Even if we are in bizarro world and someone actually does that, good for them, take the picks.

You would have been the first guy criticizing him for paying a 69 point winger 9x8, sounding smart is easy when all you do is hindsight.

Our worst case scenario is we match a 10.5x5 and kick the can down the road for 5 years. 10.5 is easily survivable if the offer sheet doesn't do any damage to morale and the team controls the media optics.

How do you know?

 

[Martin Skoula]

How do you know?

Let's pretend some team out there has no conception of value and they give Marner the only offer sheet we won't match: 11+ over 5 to 8 years. What's our worst case scenario here? We take 4 1sts and have 10+ to spend in free agency? That's not a bad spot to be in right now, especially because it opens up the possibility for us to OS Rantanen, Tkachuk, Laine, or Point without losing value.

Our realistic worst case scenario is paying Marner ~1 mil too much at 10.5 and having him leave in 5 years, the 1st + 1st + 2nd + 3rd compensation isn't enough for it to be worth not matching. Even that worst case scenario isn't too bad, 5 years is a long time to compete and we can always recoup assets for Marner in year 4 if it looks like the relationship is burnt.

Marner's leverage at the moment is "give me 11+x8 or I'll sign a 10.5x5", and that's not a very strong position because the threat is only ~1 mil more than our acceptable limit. If he wants to try his luck at dragging things out until December, I would hope we have a contingency trade planned the second his agent tells Dubas that that's what they're doing.

From Marner's POV, his worst case scenarios are:

1) taking the deal the Leafs are offering
2) signing an offer sheet for an extra 0.5-1.5 mil per year and having to play in some no-name arena in Long Island or Arizona or wherever while becoming public enemy #1 in your hometown
3) not getting paid until December and getting traded to a place you have no control over

I would think that #2 and 3 are worse for Marner than playing a 900k Marlie instead of 2.1m Brown is for the Leafs.

 

[Menzinger]

How is it leverage if there's no formal offer sheet? No one is going to overpay Marner by several million dollars AND pay 4 1sts for the privilege of doing so, it's a non-threat. Even if we are in bizarro world and someone actually does that, good for them, take the picks.

You would have been the first guy criticizing him for paying a 69 point winger 9x8, sounding smart is easy when all you do is hindsight.

Without an offersheet there is absolutely no leverage. That other poster is talking nonsense.

And without one, all he can do is threaten to sit out, and I'm willing to be Marner wont want to put up with negative PR pressures based on how he reacted to the bad press earlier in the year.

That said I expect both sides to find a compromise well before that becomes necessary

 

[AustrianHockeyfan]

Marner is a boyhood leaf, I just can't see him signing for another team. I guess it will be done with 10-11 x 6.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Marner is a boyhood leaf, I just can't see him signing for another team. I guess it will be done with 10-11 x 6.

He will be signed, it is not like we are a month into the next season and he is holding out, relax lol

 

[Joey Hoser]

I'm agreeable for up to 10.5x8

I have little doubt that would get it done, and he might even come in a bit under that.

Besides that, Marner is living the dream. He's not going to dick around for half a million dollars. And I really don't think his father and agent are these money grabbing, loudmouth maniacs that they are made out to be. We haven't even heard from them in almost a year that I'm aware of.

 

[AreBe]

four lottery picks from a fool GM
Why are the Leafs forbidden to ever win the Kessle type trade?
Let Edmonton have him!
If Edmonton takes him, 4 first over all picks and the Leafs have it made!

 

[Dragao6]

I'm agreeable for up to 10.5x8

I have little doubt that would get it done, and he might even come in a bit under that.

Besides that, Marner is living the dream. He's not going to dick around for half a million dollars. And I really don't think his father and agent are these money grabbing, loudmouth maniacs that they are made out to be. We haven't even heard from them in almost a year that I'm aware of.

Well just like he has said a bunch his agent runs show financially so it's more complicated then that. This should have been solved already if everyone is playing fair. If hes using July 1st as leverage and considering other options then hes alsonshowing no loyalty and def not captain material.
Leafs should be offering 9.5Mx6, expires same time as tavares and at that point the numbers can look different for both IF marners is a consistant superstar as hes only produced significantly once paired with a top C, on a team that wins.
If we gets 4 1sts, then goodbye, more then 9.5 but less then 4 1sts we match and trade for D and winger help like a ferland or maybe pick up panarin.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Well just like he has said a bunch his agent runs show financially so it's more complicated then that.

He says that so he doesn't have to say anything else to the media. That's what they all say. Darren Ferris is Marner's employee and Marner is going to do what he wants.

 

[Legion34]

I'm agreeable for up to 10.5x8

I have little doubt that would get it done, and he might even come in a bit under that.

Besides that, Marner is living the dream. He's not going to dick around for half a million dollars. And I really don't think his father and agent are these money grabbing, loudmouth maniacs that they are made out to be. We haven't even heard from them in almost a year that I'm aware of.

Literally the day after Matthews signed his agent went off. That was like 4 months ago

 

[Leaf Fans]

Marner must talk with the Leafs first...that's what being an RFA means.
"The deadline for teams to send their RFAs qualifying offers is the day following the NHL draft (June 29). On that same date, RFAs can begin contract talks with rival teams."

The draft is June 21–22 in Vancouver isn't it?

 

[Joey Hoser]

Literally the day after Matthews signed his agent went off. That was like 4 months ago

I couldn't remember what was said so I googled it, and this is the first article I found on it.

‘BE A LEAF FOR AS LONG AS I CAN’: Marner in no rush

Ferris has been adamant that he won’t have serious negotiations with Dubas until after the season is over, saying he does not want talks to become a distraction for his client. Ferris told the Toronto Sun on Wednesday, as well as other news outlets, that his comment that the Leafs have been “trying to lowball” Marner was “taken out of context.”

Ferris brought some clarity on where the contract issue stands with the Leafs.

“When we last spoke, we weren’t far off,” Ferris said. “Everything is positive going forward. There is no animosity. There is no contention. Everything is going in the right direction.”

Marner, who will become a restricted free agent on July 1 once his entry-level deal expires, said he doesn’t feel disrespected by the Leafs.
“No,” Marner said. “Words are spun upon on things sometimes. Me and my family love it here, my agency loves it here, this is a great place to play hockey, we have great management, we have a great team in this locker room.
“We all want, including myself, to be a Leaf for a long time and I’m sure that will happen.

Not exactly hardball negotiation tactics here.

 

[biotk]

Literally the day after Matthews signed his agent went off. That was like 4 months ago

When Marner didn't fire his agent over that it told us everything we need to know about what Marner really values (money).

 

[hamzarocks]

Reports on mainboard saying marner wants 12.5million . My reaction to marner thinking he is worthy anywhere near Mcdavid(f*** the internal Matthews comp and see how far beneath he is than 97)

 

[Joey Hoser]

Marner isn't asking for McDavid money, wtf.

 

[biotk]

Marner is a boyhood leaf, I just can't see him signing for another team. I guess it will be done with 10-11 x 6.

I hope the Leafs are not stupid enough to sign Marner for 10 - 11 x 6.

 

[Joey Hoser]

When Marner didn't fire his agent over that it told us everything we need to know about what Marner really values (money).

The original comment from Ferris was:

“So far they’ve been trying to lowball (Marner),” Ferris told Feschuk in the Star column, published hours after Auston Matthews signed a five-year contract extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs. “That’s the reason we’ve come to this point.”

https://www.tsn.ca/report-agent-says-so-far-leafs-have-been-trying-to-lowball-marner-1.1253030

And you think that told us Marner only cares about money because he didn't fire his agent?

I don't even... What? How on earth does that make sense to you? Kind of dramatic.

 

[Legion34]

I couldn't remember what was said so I googled it, and this is the first article I found on it.

‘BE A LEAF FOR AS LONG AS I CAN’: Marner in no rush



Not exactly hardball negotiation tactics here.

The first article I meant. Not the fluff publicity peice for damage control

 

[Joey Hoser]

The first article I meant. Not the fluff publicity peice for damage control

Yeah and who do you think told him to do damage control? And what have we heard from him since?

 

[Legion34]

Yeah and who do you think told him to do damage control? And what have we heard from him since?

Sure. But that’s not nothing in a year? Like at all

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Reports on mainboard saying marner wants 12.5million . My reaction to marner thinking he is worthy anywhere near Mcdavid(**** the internal Matthews comp and see how far beneath he is than 97)

Yeah and who do you think told him to do damage control? And what have we heard from him since?

"a player in Habs organization heard Marner's agent say"

Wow, totally credible.

 

[Kiwi]

"a player in Habs organization heard Marner's agent say"

Wow, totally credible.

If it was credible it would be as funny as **** though

This thread would be an absolute blood bath