Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part II

[BoredBrandonPridham]

They won a cup, what is your definition of "much better"?

1. They hadn’t won a cup yet when they signed their contracts
2. Despite that, Mitch and Matthews played hockey better. Cup is a full team accomplishment

 

[Dragao6]

I am a huge marner fan, I'm aware 34 is the top dog but marner is my favourite player and I can tell you I care more about other issues with our roster then marner.
It's just so ridiculous asks by these kids and marner that if he stays great, if he goes life will go on. I just want a better team, marner at 10.5 or more will not get us that.
Just to be clear I also think nylander and Matthew's contracts also a reach but marner wanted to be last, I just want it resolved so we can figure other stuff out and get going.
Hope these kids are watching what kahwi is doing.. IN THE PLAYOFFS!

 

[Cor]

Raheef doesn't seem to be reporting stats honestly here.

Matthews is 10th in P/60, Marner is tied for 11th. And this counts for the time Marner was PKing too.
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...er=gamesPlayed,gte,10&sort=pointsPer60Minutes

I don't know where he got the other stats from though. Everyone knows that Matthews is the superior goal scorer though.

Since 2016:
Mitch Marner: 224 Points| 3.15P/60 (152 EVP| 2.56 EVP/60)
Auston Matthews: 205 Points| 3.21P/60 (151 EVP| 2.73 EVP/60)

If anything, these only shows how close Matthews and Marner are. Even then, I'd also suggest /60 isn't the best metric in this scenerio either. If Matthews only plays 60 points a season, /60 stats doesn't matter!! He'd be gone for 25% of the season!

Here's the raw numbers and rates, since 2016.

EV Goals:
Matthews - 84 (1st)
Marner - 45 (65th)

EV Points:
Matthews - 143 (10th)
Marner - 137 (16th)

EV Primary Points:
Matthews - 125 (7th)
Marner - 111 (15th)

EV Goals per 60:
Matthews - 1.57 (1st)
Marner - 0.8 (136th)

EV Points per 60:
Matthews - 2.68 (6th)
Marner - 2.39 (17th)

EV Primary Points per 60:
Matthews - 2.34 (2nd)
Marner - 1.94 (15th)

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Raheef doesn't seem to be reporting stats honestly here.

Matthews is 10th in P/60, Marner is tied for 11th. And this counts for the time Marner was PKing too.
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...er=gamesPlayed,gte,10&sort=pointsPer60Minutes

I don't know where he got the other stats from though. Everyone knows that Matthews is the superior goal scorer though.

Since 2016:
Mitch Marner: 224 Points| 3.15P/60 (152 EVP| 2.56 EVP/60)
Auston Matthews: 205 Points| 3.21P/60 (151 EVP| 2.73 EVP/60)

If anything, these only shows how close Matthews and Marner are. Even then, I'd also suggest /60 isn't the best metric in this scenerio either. If Matthews only plays 60 points a season, /60 stats doesn't matter!! He'd be gone for 25% of the season!

/60 does matter. It matters more than total points in a season within reason. p1/60 moreso, though.

 

[DarkKnight]

1. They hadn’t won a cup yet when they signed their contracts
2. Despite that, Mitch and Matthews played hockey better. Cup is a full team accomplishment

I think you need to look at 1. again.

 

[kb]

That's a laughable "argument". Look, we can convince ourselves whatever we want around here, it doesn't factor one iota to me, I review league sentiment, which overwhelming raised its eyebrows at that number on a scant 5 years. Letting Matthews hit free agency at 27, that's lunacy.

First time that's ever happened.

Oh wait.

Stamkos
Tavares
Kane
Crosby
Malkin
Toews
Kessel

just to name a few that did the exact same thing. Asinine one and all!

And why would anyone care about "league sentiment"? That's the lowest common denominator there.

 

[MyBudJT]

Raheef doesn't seem to be reporting stats honestly here.

Matthews is 10th in P/60, Marner is tied for 11th. And this counts for the time Marner was PKing too.
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...er=gamesPlayed,gte,10&sort=pointsPer60Minutes

I don't know where he got the other stats from though. Everyone knows that Matthews is the superior goal scorer though.

Since 2016:
Mitch Marner: 224 Points| 3.15P/60 (152 EVP| 2.56 EVP/60)
Auston Matthews: 205 Points| 3.21P/60 (151 EVP| 2.73 EVP/60)

If anything, these only shows how close Matthews and Marner are. Even then, I'd also suggest /60 isn't the best metric in this scenerio either. If Matthews only plays 60 points a season, /60 stats doesn't matter!! He'd be gone for 25% of the season!

@Cor

And if you break it down this past season:
2018/2019
Mitch Marner: 94 Points | 3.47P/60 (70 EVP | 3.22 EVP/60)
Auston Matthews: 73 Points | 3.47P/60 (53 EVP | 2.93 EVP/60)


Marner was the better EV producer this season.

 

[Dragao6]

They finished identical points per game last year and Marner was on PK. Marner's production against the top defensive teams stayed constant, Matthews numbers were almost half. I mean, you can cobble together whatever you want, but to say there is giant chasm between the two isn't reality. I give Matthews the slight edge, because he's a center, but in terms of impacting games, it's almost a saw off for me.

Anyways, Dubas created this mess. He bragged how much more he's talked to Marner's team relative to where he was at with Nylander, but really that was just an admission of his own failure. I said it last summer, get Marner signed or we will regret it, so did lots of commentators, he was poised for a HUGE year. Dubas, by his own admission, slow played Willie. That we sit here isn't on his agent, his dad, Marner, it's on a failed strategy with regard to our management team. Period.

Agree, I was one that would have liked dubas to let nylander sit if he didnt agree to 6x6, move him if that's the case. That led to 34 contract and now marners.
If we can get a panarin or another top winger cheaper then do it and trade marner for rhd, leafs will still be leafs.

Would like to see...our offer 8x9.5$, if offer sheet 9.5-10.5 comes I match and trade, if 10.5+ then bye and give me 4 1sts...done

 

[DarkKnight]

First time that's ever happened.

Oh wait.

Stamkos
Tavares
Kane
Crosby
Malkin
Toews
Kessel

just to name a few that did the exact same thing. Asinine one and all!

And why would anyone care about "league sentiment"? That's the lowest common denominator there.

Lol, how a contract is viewed from non biased observers is your best indicator, not some fanboy on a bull board.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I think you need to look at 1. again.

I’m talking their post-ELC contracts, that was an identical contract as well and probably represents a distant lower bound for a Marner contract. Point 2 still stand though.

 

[MyBudJT]

Isn’t that what Marner wants? Identical contract to Matthews? Don’t forget that Matthews and Marner are much better than Toews and Kane when they signed their identical contracts.

Yeah, but you can't give it to him, because you can't have Matthews, Nylander AND Marner as UFAs in the same off-season. That would be a horrible mess.

 

[MyBudJT]

/60 does matter. It matters more than total points in a season within reason. p1/60 moreso, though.

It doesn't matter if Matthews can't stay healthy and Marner can.

Give me a healthy Marner over an injured Matthews anyday.

 

[DarkKnight]

I’m talking their post-ELC contracts, that was an identical contract as well and probably represents a distant lower bound for a Marner contract. Point 2 still stand though.

They had cups when they signed was my comment, and they did.

 

[Cor]

Doing some digging using the capfriendly tool.

Marner camp is essentially asking for Alex Ovechkin, Ilya Kovalchuk money.

Nicklas Backstrom, Matt Duchene, and Jamie Benn appear to be the most reasonable comparables based on signing age, games played and points scored. Based off their %'s and years, on an 83M cap, Marner should get 6 or 7 years, at a cap hit ranging from 6.77M to 9.26M. If you include Stamkos, that ups the top end to 9.68M, but increases the years to a firm 7. That's looking at pure comparables here.

EW Contract Comparables which is more stat based, has Marner at 8 years and 9.7M, which lines up a bit with the above.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

It doesn't matter if Matthews can't stay healthy and Marner can.

Give me a healthy Marner over an injured Matthews anyday.

Show me one player as elite as Matthews who was injured during their ELC and it affected their contract. Not Eichel, Crosby, McDavid, not a single one. That's not how contracts have ever worked. The only time it would affect their contract is if they miss so much time they lose development time. Matthews was an elite #1C the second he stepped onto the ice.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

They had cups when they signed was my comment, and they did.

Their UFA contract yea. Not their contract after the ELC. My point is the fact that they had cups doesn't matter when determining how good of a player they are. How good of a player they are determines how good of a player they are.

 

[diceman934]

OH YA.... You're STILL doing it!

U20
Nylander: 22GP 6G 13P
Marner: 77GP 19G 61P

U21
Nylander: 81GP 22G 61P
Marner: 82GP 22G 69P

U22
Nylander: 82GP 20G 61P
Marner: 82GP 26G 94P

It is funny when the truth is presented as those are facts. Yet some still believe they are or were comparable when they never have been. Nylander played pro hockey prior to arriving here and Marner came from Jr hockey and despite that has better stats by a mile.

 

[DarkKnight]

I don't think any of the "big 3" are worth what we've paid/will pay them. I think we've botched this entire process.

 

[MyBudJT]

Here's the raw numbers and rates, since 2016.

EV Goals:
Matthews - 84 (1st)
Marner - 45 (65th)

EV Points:
Matthews - 143 (10th)
Marner - 137 (16th)

EV Primary Points:
Matthews - 125 (7th)
Marner - 111 (15th)

EV Goals per 60:
Matthews - 1.57 (1st)
Marner - 0.8 (136th)

EV Points per 60:
Matthews - 2.68 (6th)
Marner - 2.39 (17th)

EV Primary Points per 60:
Matthews - 2.34 (2nd)
Marner - 1.94 (15th)

How does that make sense?

I've got:

Matthews: 151 EVP
Marner: 152 EVP
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...ilter=gamesPlayed,gte,10&sort=evPoints,points

Matthews: 3317:10 EV TOI
Marner: 3563:16 EV TOI
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,10&sort=evTimeOnIce

Matthews: (151/3317.167)*60 = 2.73
Marner: (152/3563.267)*60 = 2.56

 

[MyBudJT]

Show me one player as elite as Matthews who was injured during their ELC and it affected their contract. Not Eichel, Crosby, McDavid, not a single one. That's not how contracts have ever worked. The only time it would affect their contract is if they miss so much time they lose development time. Matthews was an elite #1C the second he stepped onto the ice.

All I'm saying is that /60 doesn't matter as much to players, because durability matters.

 

[Jozay]

10 mill for 3 years? LMAO

If thats true, then I genuinely could see him getting traded.

 

[Jozay]

I don't think any of the "big 3" are worth what we've paid/will pay them. I think we've botched this entire process.

Matthews deal was the real killer. Brutal deal IMO.

 

[morph]

Negative. Matthews is a top 5 - 10 player in the world. He's arguably the best player in the world at even strength.

Matthews is fairly paid for half a decade. To complain about that is lunacy.

Matthews is not a top 5-10 player in the world as of this moment. He's a good player that scored 73 points in 68 games in a regular season where Kucherov scored 120, Mcdavid 116, a 30 year old Crosby scored 100. If we start including defenseman and goalies, Matthews will be lucky if he's still in contention for the top-20.

As for Marner's contract, he will no doubt receive a huge overpayment of a contract. His contract could exceed Matthews' and rival Mcdavid's, his agent will just point out how he outscored his teammate by over 20 points. People will rationalise it post-facto as just "salary inflation", "going rate for younger players", when it's Dubas causing the aforementioned.

As for the salary cap going up.. What will happen if the league revenue stalls and the salary cap doesn't go up? Revenues have started falling in other professional sports (ie NFL). In addition, the leafs are a pretty significant part of the league revenue, if they start losing games there goes 2-300 million in league revenue with it.

Will people really want to watch a team with players that have the egos and salary expectations of generational talent but lacking in hardware?

 

[Cor]

How does that make sense?

I've got:

Matthews: 151 EVP
Marner: 152 EVP
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...ilter=gamesPlayed,gte,10&sort=evPoints,points

Matthews: 3317:10 EV TOI
Marner: 3563:16 EV TOI
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,10&sort=evTimeOnIce

Matthews: (151/3317.167)*60 = 2.73
Marner: (152/3563.267)*60 = 2.56

Corsica | Home

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Doing some digging using the capfriendly tool.

Marner camp is essentially asking for Alex Ovechkin, Ilya Kovalchuk money.

Nicklas Backstrom, Matt Duchene, and Jamie Benn appear to be the most reasonable comparables based on signing age, games played and points scored. Based off their %'s and years, on an 83M cap, Marner should get 6 or 7 years, at a cap hit ranging from 6.77M to 9.26M. If you include Stamkos, that ups the top end to 9.68M, but increases the years to a firm 7. That's looking at pure comparables here.

EW Contract Comparables which is more stat based, has Marner at 8 years and 9.7M, which lines up a bit with the above.

Duchene and Benn seem far enough off that I don't really think they're comparables -- are you talking after their ELCs? Backstrom is a bit closer but Marner still outproduced him quite a bit, at least 5v5 at a glance.