Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August V3

[18leafsfan18]

Becaause Kane ended up being underpaid.

Okay I can agree with that, after looking at cap hits over that contract.

Can you at least agree that he doesn't deserve Kane's current contract ? (Which seems close to his current ask, based on reports, if true)

Kane's Awards at time of signing:
Calder
3 x Stanley Cup
3 x All Star
Conn Smythe
Olympic Silver Metal

 

[MyBudJT]

Okay I can agree with that, after looking at cap hits over that contract.

Can you at least agree that he doesn't deserve Kane's current contract ? (Which seems close to his current ask, based on reports, if true)

Kane's Awards at time of signing:
Calder
3 x Stanley Cup
3 x All Star
Conn Smythe
Olympic Silver Metal

Sure, I don't think anyone thinks he's going to get more cap % than Matthews, let alone get what Kane got....

I think he'll get between Kanes 1st and 2nd contracts.... 6 years @ 13%.

 

[Notsince67]

That's you opinion, and could very likely come true. I for one hope that comes true.

But, you can't honestly say that Marner is better then Kane yet can you ?

Sure I can. I have a key eye for talent and Marner is among the most talented wingers in the league. Attempting to parse differences elite with elite is an exercise in negativity. You and a number of posters here have attempted to downplay Marners skill for some time. More than one poster in the past has done this and have come out embarrassed. I suspect you will be one of the new ones.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Sure I can. I have a key eye for talent and Marner is among the most talented wingers in the league. Attempting to parse differences elite with elite is an exercise in negativity. You and a number of posters here have attempted to downplay Marners skill for some time. More than one poster in the past has done this and have come out embarrassed. I suspect you will be one of the new ones.

You really love yourself eh ? Good for you.

I don't downplay Marner's skill in anyway, but to say he is already better then Kane is not accurate.

Can he be better then Kane at some point in his career ? Maybe, but not yet.

Take a look at Kane's best years, and awards. Marner isn't there yet.

 

[81Leafs50]

Why is it that when it comes to Marner you guys are looking at points produced but when it comes to nylander it is about CF% and points are secondary? Be consistent ffs

You can do the same analysis of 7 games from 2017-2018 season and then see how Marner stacked up against the other folks on the team.

??????

I really dont know what you are talking about. I have never posted CF% in regards to Nylander. SO I take you are lost.

Personally, when I compare 2 players at look at the pure stats. Advanced stats are ok, but I'm more interested in GOALS and production as a whole.

all these players that we are comparing here in terms of Leafs have had relatively short careers so far being that they have only played 3 full seasons in the NHL.

Matthews is clearly the best of the three (Matthews, Marner, Nylander) stat wise both yearly and career wise.

Career wise:
Matthews pts/60 3.21
Marner pts/60 3.15
Nylander pts/60 2.55

Matthews goals/60 1.74
Marner goals/60 0.94
Nylander goals/60 0.84

Lets not forget that Matthews was a point per game player in his first 2 seasons in the NHL, while scoring 74 goals. Mitch Marner was NOT a point per game player until last season.

Since Matthews was drafted goals per 60:
1. Matthews 1.74
2. Ovie 1.64

Marner is not TOP 10 in any meaningful stat. 12 in assists since being drafted. 22 in pts since being drafted.

Nylander has lesser numbers, but exactly the same as Marner for their 2 full years as Leafs. So Nylander gets paid the least of the three and that makes sense. Marner should easily get a 1.5M bump on Nylander annually.

But to put Marner and Matthews in the same category or even on the same level is absurd.

 

[ULF_55]

One thing Marner has not done is carry 2 rookies for a season, or play with 2 players who had a combined games of less than 100.

Marner's linemates, other than some games on the 4th. line, have always been with well established NHL players, veterans and last season a franchise level centerman.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Sure, I don't think anyone thinks he's going to get more cap % than Matthews, let alone get what Kane got....

I think he'll get between Kanes 1st and 2nd contracts.... 6 years @ 13%.

Honestly, I have been saying that for a while, get him to right around the 4 1st compensation. 10.5 AAV (12.88%).

I would like to see 10 AAV, but an offer sheet gets him there with a small compensation, so a slight overpay would be alright.

I just hate the whole "Best Winger in the game" comparison. Just isn't there yet, but maybe could get there.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think the comparisons are being brought out because he is looking for close to Kane money in a contract (15.22% - $12.4 AAV).

I don't think there is any chance that the Leafs pay him anywhere close to 12.4m...

UFA contracts and RFA contracts really shouldn't be compared anyway.

I do not agree that he has achieved more then Kane in his ELC. Less Points, Less Goals and with IMO more help. But for the sake of our argument here, let's say Kane and Marner had equal ELC.

Marner was better, and I disagree that he had more help.

First off, if we want to go by raw points, Kane had less at time of signing, despite the huge advantage in PP time/production because of the era. He also had a lower P/G at time of signing.

Kane had 168 points in 188 games. This is a 0.89 P/G.
Marner has 224 points in 241 games. This is a 0.93 P/G.

How about raw peak production? At time of signing, Kane's peak was 72 points. His pace in the season he signed was 82 points. Marner's peak is 94 points.

Goals? Kane had 55 goals and a 0.29 G/G and Marner has 67 goals and a 0.28 G/G, so pretty similar, though Kane had a much higher percentage of his on the PP.

When we look closer at the data and their rates of production, Marner is clearly better again:

Marner: ES 2.33p/60, 1.90p1/60 ---- PP 7.02p/60, 4.59p1/60
Kane: ES 2.22p/60, 1.70p1/60 ------- PP 6.24p/60, 4.22p1/60

It should also be noted that this above P/60 comparison overvalues Kane in terms of their contract valuation at time of signing. This includes Kane's 3rd year (which was his best), but 3/4 of that season happened after he signed (when he increased his production further). Doing those calculations by hand would be way too difficult, but if somebody else has the numbers at time of signing, I'd love to see them. This however does show, that even including Kane's best stretch which wasn't a factor in the signing, Marner still surpasses him in every way.

It should also be noted that Kane's signing came in the year after the cap only rose 0.1m. I know we're all freaking out because of the abnormally low 2m increase this year, so I can't imagine that didn't play into projections and contracts signed during that offseason/beginning of the season, especially since it was so insanely less than every other year under the salary cap to that date.

Marner has earned more than Kane did at time of signing their post-ELC contracts. How much more is a matter for debate, but he's definitely earned more.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I don't think there is any chance that the Leafs pay him anywhere close to 12.4m...

UFA contracts and RFA contracts really shouldn't be compared anyway.


Marner was better, and I disagree that he had more help.

First off, if we want to go by raw points, Kane had less at time of signing, despite the huge advantage in PP time/production because of the era. He also had a lower P/G at time of signing.

Kane had 168 points in 188 games. This is a 0.89 P/G.
Marner has 224 points in 241 games. This is a 0.93 P/G.

How about raw peak production? At time of signing, Kane's peak was 72 points. His pace in the season he signed was 82 points. Marner's peak is 94 points.

Goals? Kane had 55 goals and a 0.29 G/G and Marner has 67 goals and a 0.28 G/G, so pretty similar, though Kane had a much higher percentage of his on the PP.

When we look closer at the data and their rates of production, Marner is clearly better again:

Marner: ES 2.33p/60, 1.90p1/60 ---- PP 7.02p/60, 4.59p1/60
Kane: ES 2.22p/60, 1.70p1/60 ------- PP 6.24p/60, 4.22p1/60

It should also be noted that this above P/60 comparison overvalues Kane in terms of their contract valuation at time of signing. This includes Kane's 3rd year (which was his best), but 3/4 of that season happened after he signed (when he increased his production further). Doing those calculations by hand would be way too difficult, but if somebody else has the numbers at time of signing, I'd love to see them. This however does show, that even including Kane's best stretch which wasn't a factor in the signing, Marner still surpasses him in every way.

It should also be noted that Kane's signing came in the year after the cap only rose 0.1m. I know we're all freaking out because of the abnormally low 2m increase this year, so I can't imagine that didn't play into projections and contracts signed during that offseason/beginning of the season, especially since it was so insanely less than every other year under the salary cap to that date.

Marner has earned more than Kane did at time of signing their post-ELC contracts. How much more is a matter for debate, but he's definitely earned more.

Lots of regular season numbers, but if you brought up numbers from the playoffs they wouldn’t even compare. Kane is better.
They are similar talents, I agree, but the playoffs tips the scales to me in Kane’s favour.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I just hate the whole "Best Winger in the game" comparison.

Better than Kucherov ?
LMAO.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I don't think there is any chance that the Leafs pay him anywhere close to 12.4m...

UFA contracts and RFA contracts really shouldn't be compared anyway.


Marner was better, and I disagree that he had more help.

First off, if we want to go by raw points, Kane had less at time of signing, despite the huge advantage in PP time/production because of the era. He also had a lower P/G at time of signing.

Kane had 168 points in 188 games. This is a 0.89 P/G.
Marner has 224 points in 241 games. This is a 0.93 P/G.

How about raw peak production? At time of signing, Kane's peak was 72 points. His pace in the season he signed was 82 points. Marner's peak is 94 points.

Goals? Kane had 55 goals and a 0.29 G/G and Marner has 67 goals and a 0.28 G/G, so pretty similar, though Kane had a much higher percentage of his on the PP.

When we look closer at the data and their rates of production, Marner is clearly better again:

Marner: ES 2.33p/60, 1.90p1/60 ---- PP 7.02p/60, 4.59p1/60
Kane: ES 2.22p/60, 1.70p1/60 ------- PP 6.24p/60, 4.22p1/60

It should also be noted that this above P/60 comparison overvalues Kane in terms of their contract valuation at time of signing. This includes Kane's 3rd year (which was his best), but 3/4 of that season happened after he signed (when he increased his production further). Doing those calculations by hand would be way too difficult, but if somebody else has the numbers at time of signing, I'd love to see them. This however does show, that even including Kane's best stretch which wasn't a factor in the signing, Marner still surpasses him in every way.

It should also be noted that Kane's signing came in the year after the cap only rose 0.1m. I know we're all freaking out because of the abnormally low 2m increase this year, so I can't imagine that didn't play into projections and contracts signed during that offseason/beginning of the season, especially since it was so insanely less than every other year under the salary cap to that date.

Marner has earned more than Kane did at time of signing their post-ELC contracts. How much more is a matter for debate, but he's definitely earned more.

Yes, as a poster noted before and I didn't realize, Kane signed his 2nd contract after 2 years not 3.

When you only use p/60 stats they can be very misleading. You are comparing 3 years of Marner to 2 years of Kane, with both of them getting better year after year, Marner's P/60 numbers have a way better chance of being higher.

This is a perfect example of why you can't just use P/60 numbers, you need to look at both p/60 and pure stats.

Marner is not significantly better then Kane during his ELC (Which was the argument) They are very close comparisons. Marner is not as good as Kane right now (yet).

Again, I did not say that Kane had no help, simply said IMO Marner had more help (Tavares/Hyman vs ELC Toews/Sharp). Why can't posters just properly respond to this.

 

[kb]

One thing Marner has not done is carry 2 rookies for a season, or play with 2 players who had a combined games of less than 100.

Marner's linemates, other than some games on the 4th. line, have always been with well established NHL players, veterans and last season a franchise level centerman.

A franchise C whose point total went up by 4, and a winger who went up by one.

While he benefitted to the tune of 25 points. Fairly obvious who was more important to whom. Marner is a heck of a talent, but not yet capable of line driving on his own....unlike Tavares.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Better than Kucherov ?
LMAO.

That's the notion that is being pushed around here. He isn't better then Kane either (Right now).

 

[Suntouchable13]

Yes, as a poster noted before and I didn't realize, Kane signed his 2nd contract after 2 years not 3.

When you only use p/60 stats they can be very misleading. You are comparing 3 years of Marner to 2 years of Kane, with both of them getting better year after year, Marner's P/60 numbers have a way better chance of being higher.

This is a perfect example of why you can't just use P/60 numbers, you need to look at both p/60 and pure stats.

Marner is not significantly better then Kane during his ELC (Which was the argument) They are very close comparisons. Marner is not as good as Kane right now (yet).

Again, I did not say that Kane had no help, simply said IMO Marner had more help (Tavares/Hyman vs ELC Toews/Sharp). Why can't posters just properly respond to this.

Kane’s playoffs at Marner’s age tips the scales for me.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Kane’s playoffs at Marner’s age tips the scales for me.

Good point, didn't even venture into that yet.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Saying that somebody is not as good as Kane is not dumping on them. Waiting for some kinda playoff accomplishments is not dumping on them.

It is when they are clearly better than Kane was at time of signing.
It is when Kane didn't really have any better playoff accomplishments at time of signing.

The only teams Chicago beat in the playoffs before Kane signed was teams below them in the Standings (because the playoff setup was different), and the only one they faced that was better than them, embarrassed them. Leafs have faced the 1st, 4th, and 3rd best teams in the league, all of which were veteran, playoff-tested rosters, and have been highly competitive in all of them.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Lots of regular season numbers, but if you brought up numbers from the playoffs they wouldn’t even compare. Kane is better.
They are similar talents, I agree, but the playoffs tips the scales to me in Kane’s favour.

Playoff statistics are not nearly as important for the purposes of contract valuation, and are really hard to compare, but they weren't actually all that different anyway.

Kane had 14 points in 16 games. 0.88 P/G. He faced teams with an average point total of 103.
Marner has 17 points in 20 games. 0.85 P/G. He faced teams with an average point total of 112.

 

[X66]

Okay I can agree with that, after looking at cap hits over that contract.

Can you at least agree that he doesn't deserve Kane's current contract ? (Which seems close to his current ask, based on reports, if true)

Kane's Awards at time of signing:
Calder
3 x Stanley Cup
3 x All Star
Conn Smythe
Olympic Silver Metal

What about context.

Kane signed for 15.25% of his teams cap when he signed that deal, that's equivalent to over $12 million on this cap.

 

[Dekes For Days]

When you only use p/60 stats they can be very misleading. You are comparing 3 years of Marner to 2 years of Kane, with both of them getting better year after year, Marner's P/60 numbers have a way better chance of being higher.

Those P/60 numbers are from both of their entire ELCs. 3 years for each.
Also, P/60 numbers would account for differences in number of years better than raw statistics, so I'm not really sure your point there. These P/60 numbers actually flatter Kane for the purposes of contract valuation, because they count his best stretch of his ELC (final 3/4 of his 3rd season), which didn't factor into the contract.
Also, all of raw points, P/G, and P/60 numbers at time of signing supported Marner being better and worth more. I showed it all.

Marner is not significantly better then Kane during his ELC (Which was the argument) They are very close comparisons. Marner is not as good as Kane right now (yet).

Marner is not as good as Kane right now; this I would agree with, though it's not a substantial difference.
However, Marner was better over their ELCs, and the gap was even bigger at time of signing their post-ELC contracts (which is really all that matters).

Again, I did not say that Kane had no help, simply said IMO Marner had more help (Tavares/Hyman vs ELC Toews/Sharp). Why can't posters just properly respond to this.

I don't know if I'd say Tavares/Hyman is better than Toews/Sharp. The difference between Sharp and Hyman I think is bigger than the gap between Tavares and Toews. Also, why are you comparing his linemates for 1 year to Kane's over his ELC?

 

[18leafsfan18]

What about context.

Kane signed for 15.25% of his teams cap when he signed that deal, that's equivalent to over $12 million on this cap.

What are you talking about context. Kane achieved those things, Marner didn't.

Marner is asking for "McDavid" of "Matthews" money, when he doesn't deserve it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That's the notion that is being pushed around here. He isn't better then Kane either (Right now).

Who has said that he is better than Kucherov or Kane's current level?

 

[X66]

What are you talking about context. Kane achieved those things, Marner didn't.

Marner is asking for "McDavid" of "Matthews" money, when he doesn't deserve it.

It's because Marner will not be making 12+ million.

So he's not getting paid the same as Kane when you factor in the difference of cap at the time.

Also, stop looking at past players, it's over.

Eichel signed a 10 million dollar contract when he was still a career 0.79 points per game player.

You guys gotta let it go.

The young guys now are going to get paid and that's all there is to it.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Those P/60 numbers are from both of their entire ELCs. 3 years for each.
Also, P/60 numbers would account for differences in number of years better than raw statistics, so I'm not really sure your point there. These P/60 numbers actually flatter Kane for the purposes of contract valuation, because they count his best stretch of his ELC (final 3/4 of his 3rd season), which didn't factor into the contract.
Also, all of raw points, P/G, and P/60 numbers at time of signing supported Marner being better and worth more. I showed it all.

You literally only compared the start of Kane's 3rd year (188 games total).

Its a pretty simple point I made, when a young player is getting better every season, as both of these players did, you can't use p/60 exclusively, the way you compared them completely disregards Kane's best ELC season and his most productive stretch of hockey (I assume, I didn't look up the actual number's for him after Dec 1).

Look at the actual stats, they show Kane got more points and goals then Marner in his ELC, you can't just choose the 1 stat that shows your point, look at everything.

Marner is not as good as Kane right now; this I would agree with, though it's not a substantial difference.
However, Marner was better over their ELCs, and the gap was even bigger at time of signing their post-ELC contracts (which is really all that matters).

I can't agree that Marner was better, as good I could agree with I guess.

I don't know if I'd say Tavares/Hyman is better than Toews/Sharp. The difference between Sharp and Hyman I think is bigger than the gap between Tavares and Toews. Also, why are you comparing his linemates for 1 year to Kane's over his ELC?

It's not Tavares/Hyman vs Toews/Sharp. Toews was in his ELC at the time, which makes the gap between him and Tavares much larger.

This part is mostly from earlier conversations and I shouldn't use it to compare what we are currently comparing I suppose. Based on 1 year for Marner and full ELC for Kane. Good point here.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Who has said that he is better than Kucherov or Kane's current level?

All the posters that think he should be paid more then both.

If you follow that conversation back, I was going back and forth with a poster saying he is better then Kane now.

The better then Kucherov post I quoted, wasn't actually said, that was more of a over exaggeration on my part to the earlier conversation.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Becaause Kane ended up being underpaid.

Why is it that team friendly contracts “don’t count” as leaf player comparables... yet player friendly contracts (Eichel) set the new floor for leaf player negotiations?