Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[thewave]

I thought you wanted to grade him on contract efficiency.

It doesn't take into account results. It's just statty with no winny. Show me some Banners please. I like these hanging from my arena, they remind of what winning organizations are like.

 

[zeke]

It doesn't take into account results. It's just statty with both no winny. Show me some Banners please. I like these hanging from my arena, they remind of what winning organizations are like.

You were on the right track when you asked me to give you a contract efficiency stat. Stick with it.

As for last year's results, note that dubey has got rid of ~$15m in inefficiencies since then.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Interesting how little talk there is about sitting out seasons or trading RFAs on the Colorado, Calgary, and Tampa boards. Its almost like we are over reacting a bit

I'll agree with you when
Ranta asks for 10+million per and Col doesn't agree in any way shape or form
Tkachuk asks for 9.75M per and Calgary doesn't agree
Point asks for 11+M per and Tampa doesn't agree

This discussion (as heated as it is) is because he wants to get overpaid at the expense of being able to continue to improve the team...when those 3 do that we will see how those boards react (hint: it will be eerily similar to us)

 

[JayfromNB1219]

There is no off season for Leaf Nation. Not sure if that is a curse or a blessing.

both lol...we always have something to talk about...though I am willing to bet we have lost posters to heart attacks or something of the sort lol

 

[CDN24]

And again, you can choose to disagree with Dubas' opinion on which numbers are most valuable, but you simply cannot argue the fact that based on the number he does think are valuable, all the contracts he has signed have been very good value.


By the numbers: Grading every team's contract efficiency







Disagree with him on the why if you want, but don't think for a second that Dubas thinks he overpaid for anyone.

Most important line in that article is probably

Future value means age is crucial in terms of grading each contract, with players peaking between the ages of 22-26 and declining afterward.

Younger teams will score/rank a lot higher.

Maybe Dubas doesn't think he overpaid anyone, if he does think that he is wrong.

Its hard to compare UFAs to RFAs off ELC. Value is what the market will bear. I guess the one RFA who was able to test the market is Aho and his 8.454M on a 5 year term. Is Matthews (11.634-8.454)/8.454 or 37.6% better than Aho?

Both play centre and both are about a point a game player in their last season (Matthews 1.07 vs aho 1.01). While drafted a year earlier Aho is only 1 and 1/2 months older than Matthews. Aho points per game is increasing significantly each year. Matthews after a year 1 to 2 jump seems to be plateauing. Matthews is a bit better statistically, is that bit better worth a 37% premium??

 

[zeke]

Maybe Dubas doesn't think he overpaid anyone, if he does think that he is wrong.

Its hard to compare UFAs to RFAs off ELC. Value is what the market will bear. I guess the one RFA who was able to test the market is Aho and his 8.454M on a 5 year term. Is Matthews (11.634-8.454)/8.454 or 37.6% better than Aho?

Both play centre and both are about a point a game player in their last season (Matthews 1.07 vs aho 1.01). While drafted a year earlier Aho is only 1 and 1/2 months older than Matthews. Aho points per game is increasing significantly each year. Matthews after a year 1 to 2 jump seems to be plateauing. Matthews is a bit better statistically, is that bit better worth a 37% premium??

You're entitled to that opinion for sure.

But I would highly, highly recommend that you ask yourself why you think a simple PPG ranking is the best way to evaluate player value.

 

[thewave]

You were on the right track when you asked me to give you a contract efficiency stat. Stuck with it.

As for last year's results, note that dubey has got rid of ~$15m in inefficiencies since then.

But those players were statty guys? Wasn't Brown a darling? What I mean, historical production values are more valuable in predicting success than advanced stats. I can use my eyes to give better advanced stats than Advanced stats deliver to my brain, that's the problem.

All those guys Dubas got rid of were guys I wanted gone before the season started, why is that? The stats we're good on them, but to my eyes I saw Brown killing plays, Marleau had terrible timing, his minds too slow right now for the game or his body isn't reactive. I even wanted to trade Jake last summer.

I don't know man, Dubes may end up ok down the line but he destroying the face of this franchise to cut his teeth.

 

[thewave]

You're entitled to that opinion for sure.

But I would highly, highly recommend that you ask yourself why you think a simple PPG ranking is the best way to evaluate player value.

He is right though and we haven't even touched on it becoming easier to score for Sharp shooters with the equipment shrinks for tenders the past couple seasons. Nobody wants to touch that one because it diminishes Matthews production value vs. McDavids 100pt contract year.

 

[4thline]

Hockey should be based on results period. It's a sport where literal luck plays a role in winning quite often.

It doesn't take into account results. It's just statty with no winny. Show me some Banners please.

Missed the bold on my first read. Jarringly inconsistent (to the point of irrationality) with the rest of what I've quoted.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Hockey should be based on results period. It's a sport where literal luck plays a role in winning quite often. You understand if you understand advanced stats you can be a corsi god and crappy hockey player. There are a lot of players now studying how to work it because contracts.

Literal crap players with nice stats and lackluster production. Them stats though.

So whoever's luckiest should be paid the most. Interesting theory there Einstein.

 

[thewave]

You sticking around? Gonna be a wild party. I'm 50 next year I gotta beLeaf. The kool-aid isn't so bad. Give it a try

Give it some Rye. I hear ya. Cheers

 

[thewave]

So whoever's luckiest should be paid the most. Interesting theory there Einstein.

You always take everything people say to the extreme. Luck plays a part, what can I say.

Now Dubas, if he installs a Muskoka 5 culture of overpay and entitlement, it will take years to correct. Dangerous stuff.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You always take everything people say to the extreme. Luck plays a part, what can I say.

Now Dubas, if he installs a Muskoka 5 culture of overpay and entitlement, it will take years to correct. Dangerous stuff.

LMAO, nice spin there. Here's what' really going on:

When you say extremely ridiculous things, I call you on it. Simple stuff.

 

[zeke]

But those players were statty guys? Wasn't Brown a darling? What I mean, historical production values are more valuable in predicting success than advanced stats. I can use my eyes to give better advanced stats than Advanced stats deliver to my brain, that's the problem.

All those guys Dubas got rid of were guys I wanted gone before the season started, why is that? The stats we're good on them, but to my eyes I saw Brown killing plays, Marleau had terrible timing, his minds too slow right now for the game or his body isn't reactive. I even wanted to trade Jake last summer.

I don't know man, Dubes may end up ok down the line but he destroying the face of this franchise to cut his teeth.

No, the advanced stats hated those guys. Which is why they are gone.

People liked them because "20gls" and "gudpro grit".


5v5 adj xGF%

1. Nylander 56.8
2. Hyman 55.1
3. Tavares 53.8
4. Matthews 53.4
5. Ozhiganov 53.0
6. Gardiner 52.9
7. Dermott 52.4
8. Marner 52.3
9. Muzzin 51.9
10. Kapanen 51.6
11. Rielly 51.2
12. Johnsson 51.1
13. Zaitsev 51.0
14. Kadri 50.8
15. Ennis 50.8
16. Hainsey 50.2
17. Gauthier 48.9
18. Lindholm 48.1
19. Marleau 47.9
20. Brown 46.9

As you can see, Dubas has literally dumped pretty much the worst 1/3 of last year's roster.

Goat is the only awful one still here, but I'm guessing it's not for long even though he costs nothing.

Gardiner is obviously the one key loss that dubey would rather have kept. Ozzy ranked well too but that came against such weak qoc that it probably didn t mean too much.

 

[zeke]

He is right though and we haven't even touched on it becoming easier to score for Sharp shooters with the equipment shrinks for tenders the past couple seasons. Nobody wants to touch that one because it diminishes Matthews production value vs. McDavids 100pt contract year.

You're entitled to the opinion that hockey is the only industry in the world where performance stats were perfected over a century ago, sure.

 

[Duffman955]

No, the advanced stats hated those guys. Which is why they are gone.

People liked them because "20gls" and "gudpro grit".


5v5 adj xGF%

1. Nylander 56.8
2. Hyman 55.1
3. Tavares 53.8
4. Matthews 53.4
5. Ozhiganov 53.0
6. Gardiner 52.9
7. Dermott 52.4
8. Marner 52.3
9. Muzzin 51.9
10. Kapanen 51.6
11. Rielly 51.2
12. Johnsson 51.1
13. Zaitsev 51.0
14. Kadri 50.8
15. Ennis 50.8
16. Hainsey 50.2
17. Gauthier 48.9
18. Lindholm 48.1
19. Marleau 47.9
20. Brown 46.9

As you can see, Dubas has literally dumped pretty much the worst 1/3 of last year's roster.

Goat is the only awful one still here, but I'm guessing it's not for long even though he costs nothing.

Gardiner is obviously the one key loss that dubey would rather have kept. Ozzy ranked well too but that came against such weak qoc that it probably didn t mean too much.

How do the numbers change when you factor in GA, QOC, DZ starts etc.

You're analyzing players based on one of 100s of advanced stats

Leaving out data is almost akin to lying.

 

[thewave]

You're entitled to the opinion that hockey is the only industry in the world where performance stats were perfected over a century ago, sure.

I am just of the opinion that the best GMs win the most often. When I say win, i mean in negotiations and in drafts etc. If you have the eyes and can get good deals, you have the best team in a cap era. It's not hard. Once you start throwing money away it results on having holes in your lineup, that's where Dubes is headed.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Gardiner is obviously the one key loss that dubey would rather have kept. Ozzy ranked well too but that came against such weak qoc that it probably didn t mean too much.

sounds like you posted flawed stats there Zeke ...

 

[thewave]

How do the numbers change when you factor in GA, QOC, DZ starts etc.

You're analyzing players based on one of 100s of advanced stats

Leaving out data is almost akin to lying.

Advanced stats are so, I can make a hat thrown on the ice look good . You know what I mean, we can always cherry pick stats of some sort and rally around that. It's like... In Rod we trust.

 

[thewave]

So whoever's luckiest should be paid the most. Interesting theory there Einstein.

Luck plays a role, some people are seriously lucky. It's not something you can quantify, just is how it is.

 

[Sypher04]

He is right though and we haven't even touched on it becoming easier to score for Sharp shooters with the equipment shrinks for tenders the past couple seasons. Nobody wants to touch that one because it diminishes Matthews production value vs. McDavids 100pt contract year.

I'd give you this line of thinking maybe if Matthews was just another player among a large group of top goal scorers, but he's not, he leads the pack.

He does this with less powerplay time and lesser linemates than many of his peers (not all)

 

[zeke]

How do the numbers change when you factor in GA, QOC, DZ starts etc.

You're analyzing players based on one of 100s of advanced stats

Leaving out data is almost akin to lying.

Those stats already have zone usage and score effects factored in.

I could add in qoc for you if you want:

5v5 adj xGF% (qoc)

1. Nylander 56.8 (C-)
2. Hyman 55.1 (A+)
3. Tavares 53.8 (A+)
4. Matthews 53.4 (B+)
5. Ozhiganov 53.0 (D)
6. Gardiner 52.9 (B)
7. Dermott 52.4 (D+)
8. Marner 52.3 (A+)
9. Muzzin 51.9 (B)
10. Kapanen 51.6 (B)
11. Rielly 51.2 (A)
12. Johnsson 51.1 (C+)
13. Zaitsev 51.0 (B)
14. Kadri 50.8 (C)
15. Ennis 50.8 (F)
16. Hainsey 50.2 (A)
17. Gauthier 48.9 (F)
18. Lindholm 48.1 (D)
19. Marleau 47.9 (B-)
20. Brown 46.9 (C-)

Doesn't change all that much for the guys at the bottom - makes them look even worse for the most part. The one guy we'd bump up a bit due to qoc would be Hainsey, but probably not too much higher up.

 

[zeke]

I am just of the opinion that the best GMs win the most often. When I say win, i mean in negotiations and in drafts etc. If you have the eyes and can get good deals, you have the best team in a cap era. It's not hard. Once you start throwing money away it results on having holes in your lineup, that's where Dubes is headed.

And, as I've just shown you, he has one of the most efficient rosters in hockey, by the stats that he values.

And he has just now flushed out all the bad value inherited wasted caphits that hurt the team in his first season on the job.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Luck plays a role, some people are seriously lucky. It's not something you can quantify, just is how it is.

LOL.

 

[Nylander88]

I think he probably recognizes that a spot in the top 4 will open up for him soon. I would love to get him locked up longer-term but I wouldn't be surprised if he pushes for a 2-year bridge.

Yeah I'd say a bridge would be beneficial to him as I think he's going to be quite a quality piece. If he would sign for 3mil per long term we should hop on that. I hope we can find a way to keep Muzzin and Barrie. Rielly, Barrie,Muzzin,Dermott is a top 4 id be happy to go forward with. Ceci likely gets the axe after this year