Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIV

[4thline]

If a group of players gets together to form a united front for strategy and negotiation benefit, that is a union. If a group of owners do exactly the same thing, it becomes collusion I hope the new CBA allows for arbitration on second contracts. I also hope it limits contract lengths so if RFAs want short deals to exploit growth in the cap, teams can also have shorter UFA deals to insulate them from declining player abilities. I miss real performance bonuses that were tied to the product actually delivered by the athlete. Guaranteed deals and draconian cap penalties for trying to get out of bad contracts don't promote anything but a culture of overpayment. There has to be a more equitable way to pay the best players what they are worth than the current system.

A reversion to cap distribution from before backdiving deals

 

[Notsince67]

Perhaps, however it will have meant the Dubas took all 3 of the Amigos in Auston, Willy and Mitch coming out of their ELC deals to UFA status at the same time in 5 years.

The risk of your best players walking away as UFA for nothing or you now trying to resign all 3 pending UFA to new salary cap busting deals wouldn't be a spot I would want to see my Leafs in personally.

Not many GMs would set their own table like that, buying only 1 single year of UFA status from all and expiring all together.

Franchise players like McDavid and Eichel should be 8 year terms to protect your investments, as should Matthews now. Even if Mitch used Auston as his own comparable then, you would be looking at 7-8 years minimum also on his new deal and even in if the amount was in the $10.5 mil - $11 range today buying up 3-4 years of UFA status, then years from now when these players are in their prime you would be realizing your value then.

Overpaying all 3 and then having all 3 expiring together might actually be the worst case scenario outcome one could have imagined possible on short term deals.

Even the most pessimistic of Leafs fan base couldn't have seen that one coming, which could result in a total rebuild in 5 years for the Leafs pending the outcome.

5 years is a lot of time to keep a core together. My gut tells me that they will not all be here after 5 years anyways. 5 years is less than ideal but unfortunately, you cant get toothpaste back in the tube sometimes.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Still don't get how anyone can say Dubas "Caved" on Nylander. Nylander's number was reported at 8-8.5 before the season, but Dubas "caved" and gave him 7.

Matthews contract would be great to have more term, but it wouldn't have fit in the cap situation, so that one can be argued both ways.

At absolute worst right now Dubas is arguably 1-1.

He is following the right path with Marner and calling his bluff, if Marner wants to leave for the money they see ya later.

So because Nylander allegedly asked for an outrageous number, Dubas did a good job to get him down to a less outrageous number?
That doesn't make sense.
According to that theory, Lucic is a STEAL at 6x7... because his initial ask was 8x7. Chiarelli did a great job on the Lucic contract then, right?

And the problem with the Matthews contract is that the 11.6 aav should be at an 8 year term. At 5 years, the aav should be closer to 10 million.

Dubas is most certainly 0-2. I agree with Mess. He needs a win with Marner, or no agent will ever take him seriously.

 

[Heisen]

The Marner to offer should be lowering every day.

 

[Notsince67]

The Marner to offer should be lowering every day.

If Rantanen gets 10.5 to 11mm it is game over for Dubas

 

[Throw More Waffles]

5 years is a lot of time to keep a core together. My gut tells me that they will not all be here after 5 years anyways. 5 years is less than ideal but unfortunately, you cant get toothpaste back in the tube sometimes.

Pittsburgh, Washington, and Chicago have kept their core's together for well over then years. In those years those teams have 7 cups between them.

 

[ACC1224]

Question for the CAP geeks out there. Assuming this mystical OS arrives from some stupid team and we match it. Then what happens if we can't get back to CAP by start of season? Does anyone know what are the true consequences? A bunch of us hockey people were talking about it yesterday and no one really knew. Can the NHL cancel a signed contract? is it last one signed that gets cancelled? or does team chose which contract/or contracts get released for UFA status?

I don't think they can match if it puts them over the cap.
They would have a week to be compliant.

 

[Bluelines]

Why doesn't he just do what all of the other gm's do and sign his players to fair market value?

I borderline guarantee that Marner will make substantially more than his "comparables" going into the offseason (Aho, Point, Rantanen). I guarnatee it.

Do we get our money back?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

As punishment, Dubas will be forced to listen to Gary Bettman (and his little troll voice) read Moby Dick from front to end, while they make him eat extremely salty peanuts and drink Bud Light (ewwwwww), with no bathroom breaks.

Wow that sounds worse than junior when we had to sit in closest until we polished off a 24 with no toilet breaks and rooks pissing in the corners what a stink

 

[Bluelines]

I don't think they can match if it puts them over the cap.
They would have a week to be compliant.

Off season you can go over the cap as long as you are under it by Oct 2nd.

 

[ULF_55]

Why doesn't he just do what all of the other gm's do and sign his players to fair market value?

I borderline guarantee that Marner will make substantially more than his "comparables" going into the offseason (Aho, Point, Rantanen). I guarnatee it.

Would you trade Marner for any of Aho, Point, Rantanen, Barzal, Werenski, Pettersson?

Do you think Marner deserves more than those guys? Barzal might be the outlier ... his production dropped a great deal when the Tavares and all out offensive approach impact was removed.

 

[KPower]

If Rantanen gets 10.5 to 11mm it is game over for Dubas

I’ll take the under for the max.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I don't think they can match if it puts them over the cap.
They would have a week to be compliant.

They can match as long as Marner contract does not put them over 10% over CAP anytime before October 1st. We had established that fact. What I was asking is assuming they can't get back by October 1st then what happens to existing contracts?

 

[thewave]

Marner needs to stop being a weasel and just sign for around Aho money and term, give it up lad.

 

[ULF_55]

So because Nylander allegedly asked for an outrageous number, Dubas did a good job to get him down to a less outrageous number?
That doesn't make sense.
According to that theory, Lucic is a STEAL at 6x7... because his initial ask was 8x7. Chiarelli did a great job on the Lucic contract then, right?

And the problem with the Matthews contract is that the 11.6 aav should be at an 8 year term. At 5 years, the aav should be closer to 10 million.

Dubas is most certainly 0-2. I agree with Mess. He needs a win with Marner, or no agent will ever take him seriously.

While right now I agree the Matthews deal should have been longer, I think we have to wait and see if the market has changed, and that the very top players are going shorter term going forward.

 

[Sypher04]

The idea that Dubas caved to Nylander is laughable at best. It was the Nylander camp that called Dubas with the deadline looming, we know this as fact, so the logical continuation of that is Nylander's camp came down off their position and yeah Dubas probably came up to some extent, but again, it idea he caved is asinine.

The alternative was Nylander not playing last year, which neither helps the team nor the player and I can only assume would have significantly harmed the relationship.

Lastly, Pastrnak being underpaid doesn't make Nylander overpaid. Doesn't work both ways

 

[thewave]

While right now I agree the Matthews deal should have been longer, I think we have to wait and see if the market has changed, and that the very top players are going shorter term going forward.

11.5 x 8 and nobody is in a huff.

 

[Bluelines]

Wow that sounds worse than junior when we had to sit in closest until we polished off a 24 with no toilet breaks and rooks pissing in the corners what a stink

To a hockey fan, there really is no sound worse than Bettman's voice.

 

[Bluelines]

The idea that Dubas caved to Nylander is laughable at best. It was the Nylander camp that called Dubas with the deadline looming, we know this as fact, so the logical continuation of that is Nylander's camp came down off their position and yeah Dubas probably came up to some extent, but again, it idea he caved is asinine.

The alternative was Nylander not playing last year, which neither helps the team nor the player and I can only assume would have significantly harmed the relationship.

Lastly, Pastrnak being underpaid doesn't make Nylander overpaid. Doesn't work both ways

You could make an argument that the Leafs were better without Nylander so letting him sit last year wouldn't have been the end of the world. For what ever reason as soon as Nylander came back the Leafs stunk out the joint.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Would you trade Marner for any of Aho, Point, Rantanen, Barzal, Werenski, Pettersson?

Do you think Marner deserves more than those guys? Barzal might be the outlier ... his production dropped a great deal when the Tavares and all out offensive approach impact was removed.

I would be pretty netural about Marner being traded straight up for Aho, Point, Rantanen, or Barzal. Pettersson I'm not sure about yet (only played one year and injury concerns). Werenski, no way.

It's not that I would want those trades to happen. But those are comparable players, and there's no real loss or gain from such a trade.

Let's see which of those players gm's is competent.

Regardless of the method, Carolina has Aho for 8.5x5.
Let's see what Dubas can do.

 

[Sypher04]

You could make an argument that the Leafs were better without Nylander so letting him sit last year wouldn't have been the end of the world. For what ever reason as soon as Nylander came back the Leafs stunk out the joint.

That's an argument of hindsight. Dubas does not get the benefit of that when making these deals.

Also, from what I recall our spiral was a good month after Willy joined. He gets scapegoated but the fact is the team had systemic issues from the outset

I also think it'd be a weak argument to assume a year of no hockey is somehow more valuable than a year of struggle. Lots of lessons can be learned out of struggle

 

[Notsince67]

Pittsburgh, Washington, and Chicago have kept their core's together for well over then years. In those years those teams have 7 cups between them.

True but how much of the capspace would have been taken up had ovi not signed for 13 years and Crosby at 12? They would have likely been signed at league maximums. The 8 year limit change gave those teams advantages. Should the league change again to a 5 year max term, the leafs will be disadvantaged yet again. This is one of Dubas' biggest blunders. He should have set the ceiling with Matthews last summer with an 11 to 11.5 x 8 contract and an 8.5 to 9 mm x 8 contract with Marner. Nylander could have sat if he didnt like 6.5 x 8 or taken a bridge.

 

[ULF_55]

11.5 x 8 and nobody is in a huff.

I'd have been fine with that.

But maybe that isn't what these new players are going to do.

Changing of the guard, things always evolve, ask Scheifele what he thinks?

 

[Erndog]

You could make an argument that the Leafs were better without Nylander so letting him sit last year wouldn't have been the end of the world. For what ever reason as soon as Nylander came back the Leafs stunk out the joint.

Yes.

So lets pretend that Dubas let Willy sit and the Leafs still stunk up the joint in the 2nd half.

Could you imagine the uproar on Dubas?

"The Leafs sucked meanwhile they didn't spend the extra $300K for Willy, we need a guy that gets deals done"


ORRR...

Lets pretend the Leafs let Willy sit and then still did well in the 2nd half of the season. But didn't win the Cup.

"The Leafs had a solid year but they let Willy sit. Can you imagine what they could have done had Dubas not quibble over $300K?!?! Maybe they would have won the Cup! Stupid cheap dubas"


The narratives would have just changed no matter what the outcome was.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

... Anderson AND Jones eh?

Trade him for Anderson and Jones and be done with it

Same guy, two statements: "Marner ain't worth more than Aho".

"Trade him for Anderson and Jones and be done with it".

Interesting.