Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - 1 week to camp ... nothing

[biotk]

Yo capfriendly is showing both dermott and hyman on IR - they weren't on IR before or is it that off-season cushion being lifted?
Toronto Maple Leafs - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

something happening soon?

Capfriendly just responds to the information out there. Dubas just said in an interview a day or two ago that Dermott and Hyman were very likely to start the season on IR.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Is English not your 1st language because there seems to be a basic comprehension issue here.

Nope, I'm reading it perfectly fine. You're inserting your own feelings into what he said, even though it has already been clarified.

 

[Notsince67]

Adding isn't that hard, but.....in Matthews last 82 regular season games he has 45 goals and 89 points. And he did that while playing with injuries and while carrying poor line mates and while not playing with Tavares.

Of course, that has nothing to do with what I what I was talking about.



What I have said about Marner is true. I said last summer that he would never ever replicate his PP pace the second half of his second season. The Marner cult had their usual temper tantrum and whined and cried and just knew that he would because Marner was like a human cheat code on the PP. He didn't. I was right.

I say this summer that Marner is going to regress from his 12.7 ES oiSH% to about 10%. That is absolutely going to happen, just like it has happened with every other player who has a sky high one season.

Hard to replicate the same points on the high wall.
His EV oiSH% was a 12.7 this year so your theory seems a little puzzling.
This kind of analysis is laughable

 

[PromisedLand]

give it a listen to from around 4:00 onwards.... why just getting points don't mean squat and how one has to play to win the game not just "offense"

Tank with a great interview IMO; every Leaf young player should freakin' look at this and learn how to play without the puck

 

[biotk]

Hard to replicate the same points on the high wall.

It's so obvious now, but last summer when anyone said that his PP production was going to significantly regress the Marner cult went ballistic.

His EV oiSH% was a 12.7 this year so your theory seems a little puzzling.

Maybe to you.

As I said: Marner's EV oiSH% was 12.7 last year (this year hasn't started yet). That is completely unsustainable.

oiSH% started being recorded in 2007/08. If you look at forwards who played at least 800 ES minutes and had an oiSH% 12.5 or higher and compare that with their oiSH% the following season and their production the following season the results are not pretty. (Note - because 2012/13 was a shortened season I do not count that season, and therefore I do not count the 2011/12 season either because it would require looking at the following season as well - which was, of course, the shortened 2012/13 season. I also do not count the 2018/19 season because, of course, the 2019/20 has not happened yet).

Out of those 9 seasons there were 17 forwards who put up oiSH% of 12.5 or higher. Spezza, Demeitra, Heatley and Stastny in 2008, Malkin and Ryder in 2009, Both Sedins and Antropov in 2010, Getzlaf in 2011, Hudler, Perry and Kucherov in 2015, Laine, Scheifele and Oshie in 2017 and Couturier in 2018. (No one in 2014 or 2016 had an oiSH% of 12.5% or higher).

They averaged an ES oiSH% of 13.04% in their high oiSH% year and 9.34% in the following year. A drop of 28%. They averaged 2.91 ES P/60 in their high oiSH% year and 2.10 ES P/60 the following year. A drop of 28%.

Did any of them maintain their oiSH% the following year? No. Hudler came the closest with his oiSH% only dropping by 13%. Did any of them maintain their P/60? No. Although Demeitra only saw a drop of 4%. The big names all saw big drops: Spezza (32%) Heatley (25%) Malkin (18%) The Sedins (22% and 29%), Getzlaf (42%), Perry (34%), Kucherov (26%) etc.

Marner's oiSH% will regress - the only question is how much - and it will likely be a lot. If Marner matched the average regression next year his ES oiSH% would drop from 12.7 to 9.08% and his ES P/60 would fall from 3.23 to 2.33 (that is a drop of 20 points if he plays the same amount of ES TOI).

And while me pointing out the obvious is because "I hate Marner", I said the exact same thing about Matthews last summer (that his ES oiSH% would regress significantly - and it did by 19%).

This kind of analysis is laughable

We will see how much you are laughing about it at the end of this season.

 

[Nineteen67]

give it a listen to from around 4:00 onwards.... why just getting points don't mean squat and how one has to play to win the game not just "offense"

Tank with a great interview IMO; every Leaf young player should freakin' look at this and learn how to play without the puck

This guy was really impressive in the playoffs. He’s built llike my F-150 truck and moves around like it too.

 

[Havoc]

give it a listen to from around 4:00 onwards.... why just getting points don't mean squat and how one has to play to win the game not just "offense"

Tank with a great interview IMO; every Leaf young player should freakin' look at this and learn how to play without the puck

Tarasenko was a shadow of himself at 23 compared to 27. Heck, the Blues missed the playoffs in 17 / 18 then go on to win the cup in 18 / 19. Even 26 year old Tarasenko needed to watch this clip of 27 year old Tarasenko.

At the same age as our young stars the Blues couldn't even get out the first round. Sound familiar?

Patience.

 

[Stamkos4life]

If someone is a fan of the team and *Matthews* demands have made the team worse, and made the team's cup chances worse - then yeah - fans should care. Bizarre that this even needs to be stated.

And, of course, if it is a contract that becomes widely criticized then it wouldn't surprise me in Marner's production goes down significantly (something that should already be expected because his oiSH% was completely unsustainable last year anyway).

Nylander had a crappy season. Matthews was playing at a 50 goal, 50 assist pace (over 38 games) before the contract was signed. After his widely criticized contract he played at a 38 goal, 36 assist pace (or 30 games).

Fixed the first paragraph for you.

It wouldn't surprise me if marners natural progression off sets his regressing oiSH%. So dont be expecting a 20 point drop.

Dubas paid Matthew's like he was a proven 50-50 type of player based on 38 games. Where as, like you posted, he paced for only 35-35 after that. Another F for dubas.

 

[Stamkos4life]

All contracts he has signed are right in line with comparables. At the most 500k over payments, but IMO right where they should be.
Traded for Muzzin
Traded for Barrie
Signed Tavares
Got rid of every anchor contract the team had (Zaitsev, Marleau, Brown)

The Dubas haters are completely transparent on here. The guy has done a very good job with this team.

Your first paragraph is false. There is a reason nylander and Matthew's contracts have made more then a few gms upset. It's due to the absurd aav based on term and what they have proven. At no time in history has a player been given a contract that would make him the 3rd highest player after a career high of 73 points. It has never happened.

Traded a 1st and some decent prospects for muzzin.

Lost out on 3 years of cost controlled 2nd line center in kadri for 1 year of barrie

Siging tavares was good but how much of that is on dubas? Imo not that much. Jt came for the city and the team, not to play for Kyle dubas.

Spent a 1st, among other things, to get rid of contracts. We now have 2 years in a row without a 1st round pick. Our prospect pool is already starting to loom really thin.

That is very debatable. His most important move of the off season is siging marner and he has not been successful.

If we once again fail to make it past the first round, would you still say he has done a very good job? Results speak louder then actions

 

[PromisedLand]

Tarasenko was a shadow of himself at 23 compared to 27. Heck, the Blues missed the playoffs in 17 / 18 then go on to win the cup in 18 / 19. Even 26 year old Tarasenko needed to watch this clip of 27 year old Tarasenko.

At the same age as our young stars the Blues couldn't even get out the first round. Sound familiar?

Patience.

When one knows what the right mantra is for success but still tries to do it "their way" and it isn't working it is time for a change.

Doing the right things has nothing to do with "youth"; age evolves with every century - there are kids nowadays who are more knowledgeable than you and I at that age because of technology; exercising patience when information is readily available is moronic. why wait to do the "right" things later on when you know what the "right" thing to do is for success now

 

[Nithoniniel]

Your first paragraph is false. There is a reason nylander and Matthew's contracts have made more then a few gms upset. It's due to the absurd aav based on term and what they have proven. At no time in history has a player been given a contract that would make him the 3rd highest player after a career high of 73 points. It has never happened.

Agree to some degree about Matthews. I didn't exactly read much uproar about Nylander's contract, which was exactly as predicted by any of the major contract projections and just in line with what players of his ilk gets.

People have a tendency to take the absolutely best contracts of any comparable and hold that as the standard for a decent contract, which is pretty absurd. It gets even weirder when its Leafs fans, who you'd think wouldn't want to paint things in as negative a light as possible. I can only surmise that some had made up their mind about Dubas already, and found the angle to justify it.

 

[MyBudJT]

Agree to some degree about Matthews. I didn't exactly read much uproar about Nylander's contract, which was exactly as predicted by any of the major contract projections and just in line with what players of his ilk gets.

People have a tendency to take the absolutely best contracts of any comparable and hold that as the standard for a decent contract, which is pretty absurd. It gets even weirder when its Leafs fans, who you'd think wouldn't want to paint things in as negative a light as possible. I can only surmise that some had made up their mind about Dubas already, and found the angle to justify it.

I feel like this is a cop out. I sincerely doubt that the vast majority of people (even those that dislike the Nylander contract) had strong convictions against Dubas. Even now, a year into the job, I’d expect the vast majority of Leafs fans would be satisfied with the work his done (minus the contract negotiations).

 

[Nithoniniel]

I feel like this is a cop out. I sincerely doubt that the vast majority of people (even those that dislike the Nylander contract) had strong convictions against Dubas. Even now, a year into the job, I’d expect the vast majority of Leafs fans would be satisfied with the work his done (minus the contract negotiations).

If only. I've had that feeling since pretty much the moment he was named GM, with fans already mocking him as a "pretty boy" who has no idea what he's doing. When the same fans are consistently negative about every move, what kind of inference would you draw from that?

You're probably right about the vast majority though. I'm mainly talking about a sub-group, and I guess they tend to be louder than the average fan.

 

[Confucius]

Except for maybe the last game or two, pre-season is meaningless. It's just a way for teams to make more money.

Frankly, I'd rather our star players not play pre-season games anyway.

Miss training camp, miss preseason games and just jump into the season? no thanks. Look what happened to William last year. If he joins once the season starts, Dubas should take that into account and pay him quite a bit less.

 

[ShaneFalco]

The game began with a lowball bid and a slow walk through negotiations last summer. This isn't all on the Marners camp.

Yes it was his agent who came out and said that. They’ve been vocal and manipulative instead of being professional.
And slow walk? We’re you part of the negotiations?

 

[Mess]

NHL contracts are intended to be league wide.

If Marner played in TB he would be in-line for an contract below the league scoring leader & MVP Kucherov [$9.5 mil x 8] and <= Stamkos [$8.5 mil X 8].

Toronto however seems to be the "Market Setters" for the entire NHL where Tavares as UFA and Matthews RFA both received contracts that put them in the top 3 overall highest only behind McDavid on AAV but both with shorter terms. Matthews contract on 8 years would have put him around $14 mil AAV, and no UFA had ever hit double digit AAV until JT signed for $11 mil last summer.

The general consensus around the league is the Marner's new deal will also be a new market setting deal for Wingers and for RFA players and also on a shorter term where the player is selling cost controllable RFA years and not UFA years to top $$ AAV.

Then the rest of the NHLPA uses Toronto's contracts to increase their own earning potential.

Shanahan and Dubas clearly stated last summer that they did not intended to be market setters on their new contracts, but clearly that isn't the case.

But why ??

 

[Contenderorpretender]

Your first paragraph is false. There is a reason nylander and Matthew's contracts have made more then a few gms upset. It's due to the absurd aav based on term and what they have proven. At no time in history has a player been given a contract that would make him the 3rd highest player after a career high of 73 points. It has never happened.

Traded a 1st and some decent prospects for muzzin.

Lost out on 3 years of cost controlled 2nd line center in kadri for 1 year of barrie

Siging tavares was good but how much of that is on dubas? Imo not that much. Jt came for the city and the team, not to play for Kyle dubas.

Spent a 1st, among other things, to get rid of contracts. We now have 2 years in a row without a 1st round pick. Our prospect pool is already starting to loom really thin.

That is very debatable. His most important move of the off season is siging marner and he has not been successful.

If we once again fail to make it past the first round, would you still say he has done a very good job? Results speak louder then actions

Which of Tavares or Matthews was going to be the 3rd line center?

 

[Walshy7]

Yes it was his agent who came out and said that. They’ve been vocal and manipulative instead of being professional.
And slow walk? We’re you part of the negotiations?

funny thing is a couple of pages back he criticizes a guys opinion because he didnt know the facts, no one did. Then spouts this crap. That poster is a grade A Marner shill at this point

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

NHL contracts are intended to be league wide.

If Marner played in TB he would be in-line for an contract below the league scoring leader & MVP Kucherov [$9.5 mil x 8] and <= Stamkos [$8.5 mil X 8].

Toronto however seems to be the "Market Setters" for the entire NHL where Tavares as UFA and Matthews RFA both received contracts that put them in the top 3 overall highest only behind McDavid on AAV but both with shorter terms. Matthews contract on 8 years would have put him around $14 mil AAV, and no UFA had ever hit double digit AAV until JT signed for $11 mil last summer.

The general consensus around the league is the Marner's new deal will also be a new market setting deal for Wingers and for RFA players and also on a shorter term where the player is selling cost controllable RFA years and not UFA years to top $$ AAV.

Then the rest of the NHLPA uses Toronto's contracts to increase their own earning potential.

Shanahan and Dubas clearly stated last summer that they did not intended to be market setters on their new contracts, but clearly that isn't the case.

But why ??

Tavares was getting $11M no matter what. Toronto did not set that trend, the trend existed with or without them. They were just lucky enough to be gifted the player and his $11M contract. I agree on Matthews.

 

[Legion34]

Whatever.

I think you need to read that again without Darren ferris glasses and Paul marner’s fargo hat on.......

This was in response to the masses thinking all 3 were going to sign July 1......

 

[Nineteen67]

Tarasenko was a shadow of himself at 23 compared to 27. Heck, the Blues missed the playoffs in 17 / 18 then go on to win the cup in 18 / 19. Even 26 year old Tarasenko needed to watch this clip of 27 year old Tarasenko.

At the same age as our young stars the Blues couldn't even get out the first round. Sound familiar?

Patience.

They found the right coach and players. Maybe one day the Leafs will. They have a decent nucleus, but so doesn’t every team around them, above, on par, and worse, below.

 

[thewave]

They found the right coach and players. Maybe one day the Leafs will. They have a decent nucleus, but so doesn’t every team around them, above, on par, and worse, below.

We just upgraded Carolina to be our next nemesis by way Dubasvision. Tampa will be interesting as well but generally speaking those with the best contracts on the books have advantage.

 

[thewave]

I think you need to read that again without Darren ferris glasses and Paul marner’s fargo hat on.......

This was in response to the masses thinking all 3 were going to sign July 1......

In Toronto... The so called masses are a vocal minority usually of ex players and hockey enthusiasts if not coaches etc. The masses that get heard here are usually right around here and are not the general public at all. Dubas is a complete pompous fool, the masses eh, what a hoser.

 

[Nineteen67]

Traded a 1st and some decent prospects for muzzin.

Spent a 1st, among other things, to get rid of contracts. We now have 2 years in a row without a 1st round pick. Our prospect pool is already starting to loom really thin.

This has to be a concern if they are trying to build a Cup winner. I don’t believe they are legit contender this year. Maybe they are, but there are still a lot of questions on the roster.

The problem with not sticking to a proper rebuild is that teams like Ottawa, Buffalo and Montreal might catch up to them.

 

[hfman]

the leafs learned their lesson with nylander

they will not give in this time.


Mitch "I want MORE-ner" will either cave or sit the season