Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - 1 week to camp ... nothing

[hockeywiz542]

Kyle Dubas addresses the million dollar question of how close the Toronto Maple Leafs are to signing Mitch Marner, and whether or not the negotiation is going smoothly.

 

[Warden of the North]

It should, it's a hard cap league

If your paying more for your talent than other teams you end up with less talent for your money which makes you less competitive, that's a bit of an issue

We have an embarrassment of talent. Talent costs money. We still dont have a bad deal on the team (aside from the LTIR deals).

For all the complaining about Matthews and Willys deals, Dubas could trade them any time and make out handsomely. They arent "bad".

 

[Wafflewhipper]

You know, if I am already paying 9.5 for 3 years, I'd rather just give him 11 but say he needs to take 6 years. Yes it sucks, but it buys 3 more years, and 2 UFA years. It makes our window the next 5 years instead of the next 3. And honestly, within a year the cap will go up by 2M anyways offsetting it.

In a few years, seattle comes in and a new TV happen, and the Leafs have a ton of cap space and 2-3 years left on these guy's deal. If we just stay at 9.5 x 3, he'll want a massive raise when the cap goes up and honestly, what's the difference between 9.5 and 11? A 4th liner? Losing Muzzin? If you really need to, you can always move Hyman or Kapanen to keep Muzzin if you know you have solid wing depth.

Someone gets it. 7 years or 8 years would be all the better. He would still be young and productive after 8 years everything being equal.

 

[Legion34]

Marner's hypothetical 3x year deal puts him on a collision course with Rielly's contract expiry so that would cause untold destruction to the team.

Crazy thought..... is 4 years the best deal?

4 x 9.16 or something.

Then.

Freddie 2 years
Rielly 3 years
Marner 4 years
Matty/Willy 5 years.

I’m not so sure what the last year of RFA does anyway? If he really didn’t want to sign He could still force his way out like Trouba.

We would lose him as a 1 year rental for a point/1st return.

 

[Cleetus]

I agree. If he wants to get paid like an elite line driver then he can drive his own line. One year deal - 7.5M - to prove he is worth what he demands. Play all three lines basically the same amount of time. Run two PPs basically the same with Matthews/Nylander/Barrie on the one and Tavares/Marner/Rielly on the other. At ES Mik/Moore - Kerfoot - Marner can be a line. Have at it.

this is so bad, you really think Mitch coming off a 90 point season, needs to sign a prove it contract lol, while Dubas gave 7 million for 6 years for Nylander, and 5 years to Auston who has yet to score 75 points like what is going on? its even more funny that the contract is only for 7.5 that is one ridiculous take wow, and than you want to put Marner on another line to prove he can drive a line, do you not want the leafs to put the best lines possible on the ice to win hockey games?, or you want something that may not work to prove his worth at the expense of losing games I dont get this at all, thought the game was about trying to win, not prove worth for a contract

 

[Dekes For Days]

There are a lot of people who don't understand how good Matthews and Marner are, and have let a team stat like PP opportunities/TOI skew their perception.

In terms of this year's major RFAs, Matthews and Marner are unmatched.

ELC Even strength P/GP at time of signing:

Matthews - 132/182 - 0.73
Marner - 152/241 - 0.63
Point - 135/229 - 0.59
Aho - 133/242 - 0.55
Rantanen - 131/239 - 0.55
Tkachuk - 120/224 - 0.54
Boeser - 76/140 - 0.54
Connor - 95/178 - 0.53
Laine - 116/237 - 0.49
Meier - 93/193 - 0.48

I think people would be very, very surprised at how some players of the past rank as well, even when adjusting for era.

Keep in mind that both of them also produce on the PP at a rate better than any of these guys, in points and primary points.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

this is so bad, you really think Mitch coming off a 90 point season, needs to sign a prove it contract lol, while Dubas gave 7 million for 6 years for Nylander, and 5 years to Auston who has yet to score 75 points like what is going on? its even more funny that the contract is only for 7.5 that is one ridiculous take wow!

P Kane didn’t get to 94 points until his 10th repeat 10th season in Chicago. That post you had to respond to there was a complete - - - -ing joke. He has to prove nothing and you are absolutely right to call it a bad post. Its bad lol

 

[MJ65]

There are few trade suggestions (not going to call rumors) out by different sports writers, so my question would be if we really out of options and have no choice but to trade him

What kind of package you would be willing to accept? and what teams can afford Marner and would offer us the acceptable package

 

[Legendary]

8 years 12 mill is my guess. He wants more than Matthews but will agree to the longer term.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

There are few trade suggestions (not going to call rumors) out by different sports writers, so my question would be if we really out of options and have no choice but to trade him

What kind of package you would be willing to accept? and what teams can afford Marner and would offer us the acceptable package

How bout we trade him straight up for the $10,500,000 Kane who is 30 years old and will be 34 when his deal expires. Is that a better way to take care of that exact amount of cap space we have. Apparently he’s a god of a player. He’ll be about the right age to begod when its expired anyways.

 

[Stephen]

There are few trade suggestions (not going to call rumors) out by different sports writers, so my question would be if we really out of options and have no choice but to trade him

What kind of package you would be willing to accept? and what teams can afford Marner and would offer us the acceptable package

A musical chairs type deal with extras for one of the other big time RFA's could make sense. But obviously it would make more sense to get a deal done.

 

[Kiwi]

We have an embarrassment of talent. Talent costs money. We still dont have a bad deal on the team (aside from the LTIR deals).

For all the complaining about Matthews and Willys deals, Dubas could trade them any time and make out handsomely. They arent "bad".

No, we've paid more than other teams for similar levels of talent

You can justify that any way you want but in a hard cap league that's death because guess what happens? Teams like Tampa have more talent than you for less outlay

Nylander's overpaid, Matthews is significantly overpaid and Marner's being a pain in the ass because now he expects to be overpaid (not an unfair position to take)

We're about to get taken to the cleaners, Tampa and Boston (division rivals) must be laughing because I know I would if I was them

 

[Wafflewhipper]

No, we've paid more than other teams for similar levels of talent

You can justify that any way you want but in a hard cap league that's death because guess what happens? Teams like Tampa have more talent than you for less outlay

Nylander's overpaid, Matthews is significantly overpaid and Marner's being a pain in the ass because now he expects to be overpaid (not an unfair position to take)

We're about to get taken to the cleaners, Tampa and Boston (division rivals) must be laughing because I know I would if I was them

You should go look at Bostons cap position if you think they are laughing

 

[kfox]

Point will sign before camp. His numbers will give Dubas some leverage

 

[Duke Silver]

What the concensus on what is appropriate AAV for a three year deal?

Like $7M at most. Even that's a bit high.

Highest 3-year deal given over the last 10 years was 6.5% of cap (Kucherov), which is $5.3M on this year's cap.

Interactive graph here: Tableau Public

 

[Duke Silver]

Point will sign before camp. His numbers will give Dubas some leverage

Let everyone (Rantanen, Point, Tkachuk, Connor, Laine) sign first.

 

[Kiwi]

You should go look at Bostons cap position if you think they are laughing

It's tight, but guess what?


The Pasta, Bergeron and Marchand deals **** on ours so they can afford to resign Carlo and McAvoy and we have 1 defenseman under contract next season

Jesus, it's almost like getting good deals leaves you open to sign other good players

They have signed some truly horrific deals and there still in a decent position

 

[Lenovs]

9.5x3 is a huge overpayment. if he really is willing to sign a three year deal he shouldn't make more than 8 (and even that's a bit high).

leafs would be well advised to wait for other rfa's numbers. and if he insists on matthews money trade him, i've had enough of this shit.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

It's tight, but guess what?


The Pasta, Bergeron and Marchand deals **** on ours so they can afford to resign Carlo and McAvoy and we have 1 defenseman under contract next season

Jesus, it's almost like getting good deals leaves you open to sign other good players

They have signed some truly horrific deals and there still in a decent position

I’d take our core of young stars over their fading core and i hope you don’t think they are out of the woods next season either. They aren’t. Our core after Marner signs is signed is solidified for three years minimum when kappy and Andy and Rielly come up. Next year is Dermott and Sandin along with Lilly will likely be entering the picture.

Seems pretty stable to me. The only difference is we are young and building and Boston could have aged player fade. I’ll take our team and cap complications no sweat

 

[Wafflewhipper]

9.5x3 is a huge overpayment. if he really is willing to sign a three year deal he shouldn't make more than 8 (and even that's a bit high).

leafs would be well advised to wait for other rfa's numbers. and if he insists on matthews money trade him, i've had enough of this ****.

He worth every penny of 9,500;000 and more if stone is a comparable at the same money and does less scoring. Good player but not better than or younger than magic

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Like $7M at most. Even that's a bit high.

Highest 3-year deal given over the last 10 years was 6.5% of cap (Kucherov), which is $5.3M on this year's cap.

Interactive graph here: Tableau Public

That is comically low ha.

 

[TML Dynasty]

Itll be 6 years for 10.16m and itll be signed Friday evening, or Monday at the very latest. Book it. TMLD 3

 

[Duke Silver]

That is comically low ha.

On a three-year deal? There's literally no precedent for a player to get more than 6.5% of the cap on a 3-year deal.

 

[Kiwi]

I’d take our core of young stars over their fading core and i hope you don’t think they are out of the woods next season either. They aren’t. Our core after Marner signs is signed is solidified for three years minimum when kappy and Andy and Rielly come up. Next year is Dermott and Sandin along with Lilly will likely be entering the picture.

Seems pretty stable to me. The only difference is we are young and building and Boston could have aged player fade. I’ll take our team and cap complications no sweat

Unfortunately we're going to need to fill out a roster around our core so unless we can game the system on pending dirt cheap UFA'S or draft and develop at a far higher rate than we have over the last decade and a half were completely screwed

We drafted a ton of great young talent after sucking for years, overpaid it and will struggle to surround it in the very near future, Yay us

Boston have been contending for close on a decade, we should be so lucky

 

[Dekes For Days]

On a three-year deal? There's literally no precedent for a player to get more than 6.5% of the cap on a 3-year deal.

This is actually untrue.

E. Staal got 10.23% and Heatley got 11.54% on 3-year deals. Meier was a considerably worse player than Kucherov was and got 7.36 on a 4-year deal that had a similar idea of bridging to the year before UFA. Also, Kucherov was essentially handcuffed into that deal, so using it as a comparable is kinda questionable. In reality, you're not going to find a perfect 3-year bridge comparable because they are so rare, so you have to work off of other comparables and adjust.