Speculation: Marner blocked a trade to Carolina for Rantanen

[StlBigFly]

Are you nuts? Teams trade mid/low picks for UFA rights pre draft, not proven elite NHL players.

Yes. It would be an awkward deal that would not be typical.

But sign and trades are valued differently than a transfer of rights.

In the case Missouri changes its financial situation the St. Louis Blues will change their cap structure, will unlock the ability to pursue talent such as Marner and will become attractive to talent such as Marner. Moving Kyrou for Marner gives Toronto the same or similar term to the term stl would get in the sign and trade / trade and sign of Marner. Stl would have to add more because ofc the talent they’re sending is a much lower grade than the talent they’d receive. If this deal did occur Toronto should expect more than 1 impact nhler - Kyrou plus plus.

Stl would win the trade because we rarely get extremely elite talent. We spend a lot of cap on depth players and there are so many cases of failed experiments from this. It would probably help us to restrict us from these choices by filling our cap with one elite player.

Toronto would win because by year 4 or 5, a Kyrou equivalent contract would cost double due to surging cap and they’ll have him locked in for a few more years, years he isn’t old. And you’ll still have a goat in Matthews. The best part of Kyrou is that we got him to sign before inflation cap was a thing. A year before. And we got the 8 years. Thomas and Kyrou have absurdly good contracts.

 

[Leaf Fans]

If he was on Carolina...maybe.

It hasn't been 20 years for them.

 

[Silky Johnson]

It hasn't been 20 years for them.

Kinda my point

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

And he’s got two now tonight, while being great defensively. He reminds me of Keon (my favourite player as a kid)

Like Lets say I wanted to replace Tavares, because he is 35.

If you asked me how I would do that I would say back the money truck up to Sam Bennett.

is it the answer you'd want? I don't know but at least I got one.

The Marner haters never do.

For the record I don't hate JT but he is 35 I am a little concerned about giving him a 3-4 year deal.

not next season next season I think he'd be fine.

but in year 2 and 3 of that deal? I am less convinced

 

[Leaf Fans]

Kinda my point

Not really.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

Sucks Leafs burnt that bridge. oh well. Marner should fit in LV next year

 

[Leaf Fans]

Sucks Leafs burnt that bridge. oh well. Marner should fit in LV next year

The Leafs haven't burned any bridges with Marner.

 

[Coffee]

If he was on Carolina...maybe.

How bout now ? Watching the game ?

 

[Reality Czech]

Yes. It would be an awkward deal that would not be typical.

But sign and trades are valued differently than a transfer of rights.

In the case Missouri changes its financial situation the St. Louis Blues will change their cap structure, will unlock the ability to pursue talent such as Marner. Moving Kyrou for Marner gives Toronto the same or similar term to the term stl would get in the sign and trade. Stl would have to add more.

Yeah, which is why as a Blues fans I think it's a crazy idea. Regardless, I can't see why Marner would sign and trade when he could just hit UFA and choose wherever he wants. Yeah, I get the 8th year argument but the chances of this happening are basically 0.

As a side note, it would have been hilarious to see Carolina trade Rants for Marner and then watch Marner walk as a UFA after the season.

 

[Warden of the North]

If we accept the premise as true, then I’d expect Carolina would want permission to discuss an extension with Marner prior to the trade going down.

Oh I get that, my question was in response to the Leafs telling Marner they wanted to keep him

If they wanted to keep him, why would they even bother asking him to waive his NTC?

 

[Silky Johnson]

How bout now ? Watching the game ?

Not sure what you are talking about?

 

[Oilslick941611]

Its clear he didnt want to be the guy and get exposed like Rantanen did as a product of another player.

 

[Coffee]

Not sure what you are talking about?

This team might be different this year is all I’m saying. And Marner may sense that

 

[Nothingbutglass]

The Leafs haven't burned any bridges with Marner.

You cant try to trade someone to bring in their replacement and have him veto and expect things to be the same.

 

[Michoulicious]

I think Marner ends up in Detroit for 13+.

Toronto will keep Tavares as a 3C, sign Bennett for 8+ and go for Ehlers.

 

[Leaf Fans]

You cant try to trade someone to bring in their replacement and have him veto and expect things to be the same.

You also cannot draw the conclusion that now there is irreparable damage to negotiations between the player and team.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Its clear he didnt want to be the guy and get exposed like Rantanen did as a product of another player.

That wouldn't be a problem with Marner.

 

[Oilslick941611]

That wouldn't be a problem with Marner.

He would have no one to hide behind in Carolina and would need to be the guy driving the offense...It would go very poorly for him there, so I understand his rejection of the trade. Like Rantanen, he's going to need to go to a place where he can play with another star level player and complement them.

 

[Leaf Fans]

He would have no one to hide behind in Carolina and would need to be the guy driving the offense...It would go very poorly for him there, so I understand his rejection of the trade. Like Rantanen, he's going to need to go to a place where he can play with another star level player and complement them.

Yeah, he would excel on the first line.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

You also cannot draw the conclusion that now there is irreparable damage to negotiations between the player and team.

I already did. The Marner camp is done with the Leafs. He wont be there next year. Feel free to quote if I am wrong.

 

[SI90]

Wonder how this affects his relationship with Toronto moving forward?

 

[Leaf Fans]

I already did. The Marner camp is done with the Leafs. He wont be there next year. Feel free to quote if I am wrong.

No, you are just making things up. Marner can still choose free agency - that hasn't changed.

 

[Coffee]

@Silky Johnson

I said the team looks different this year, SJ. And I’m having a hard time believing you don’t somewhat sense that

 

[Nothingbutglass]

No, you are just making things up. Marner can still choose free agency - that hasn't changed.

Do you let your wife's boyfriend sleep at the house?

 

[StlBigFly]

Yeah, which is why as a Blues fans I think it's a crazy idea. Regardless, I can't see why Marner would sign and trade when he could just hit UFA and choose wherever he wants. Yeah, I get the 8th year argument but the chances of this happening are basically 0.

As a side note, it would have been hilarious to see Carolina trade Rants for Marner and then watch Marner walk as a UFA after the season.

He will effectively be a ufa and choosing wherever he wants if stl and Toronto do a sign and trade. Every team will be calling Toronto and Marner will be able to make a decision. Effectively Marner is a ufa the second the playoffs end for him, just not official for a few months.

There’s a reason to do this before July 1:

We could attempt to sign him as a free agent past July 1st but - we can’t kinda - Kyrou kinda fills the slot Marner would fill, Marner doesn’t really work with our cap so long as we have 2 other 8 million dollar wingers.

Many suitors will be in a similar position: The expiring contracts this year are paltry and they’ll likely have to move somebody to bring Marner in. There isn’t a ton of top 6 churn this offseason. Every free agent is seeing $ signs too. Teams won’t have so much flexibility. Many would make room. There is always a cost to make room - hockey talent is an absurdly illiquid market with a giant spread. The difference between gm asks and gm offers is huge. Every transaction carries loss that is the gap between the bid and ask. A hockey trade with a signing opens the room for the deal in an efficient manner. It could be done other ways and maybe those are better but they’re not as efficient.

If we took Kyrou to market in a transaction where we were removing cap we would get bent over the barrel while risking the deal.

It would be obvious what we wanted, the number of people who could take Kyrou (or Buch) without sending cap back is less than half the league, we would get absolutely pinned while worrying about whether the other teams calling Marner will get him, and entirely at the mercy of a few teams as we watch the calendar creep to July 1 - the day Kyrou gets trade protection.

Or we just do the deal with Toronto, secure the player.