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Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread

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Hoping SDA can get some good minutes in the KHL.

He will be playing with leafs prospect Semyon Kizimov
 
Morgs said:
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Does the NHLe model only take into consideration points, age, and league to create projections? If so, how does it show amirov to be so far ahead in his development if kapanen was 0.5ppg in liiga while amirov is below that? I know the liiga is weighed down, but the difference shouldn’t be that bad.
 
Prominence said:
Does the NHLe model only take into consideration points, age, and league to create projections? If so, how does it show amirov to be so far ahead in his development if kapanen was 0.5ppg in liiga while amirov is below that? I know the liiga is weighed down, but the difference shouldn’t be that bad.
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He hasn't fully explained his methodology (I saw someone asked earlier this week), but I assume he takes all that into account and the strength of the league that specific season.

Also, he does only take into account where the player showed best that specific season if they play in multiple leagues. Him crushing the MHL last year in his D+0 shows better for NHLe / his star rating than it did for Kap in Liiga in his D+0.
 
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Morgs said:
He hasn't fully explained his methodology (I saw someone asked earlier this week), but I assume he takes all that into account and the strength of the league that specific season.

Also, he does only take into account where the player showed best that specific season if they play in multiple leagues. Him crushing the MHL last year in his D+0 shows better for NHLe / his star rating than it did for Kap in Liiga in his D+0.
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Thanks!
 
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Morgs said:


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I believe his model heavily values production (which is fair since that is really the only publicly available stat) and if you look at a guy like Liljegren solely based off of his production in the AHL as an 18/19 year old, it is obviously not great... And he is being compared to guys who are generally the cream of the crop. However, keep in mind that he has been playing tough minutes from pretty much day 1 there, whereas most other guys his age are spoon fed offensive minutes and cushy matchups that would really play up in his model.

Liljegren did not come out of nowhere, he is now just being recognized for what he has always been: a top prospect.
 
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Mitch nylander said:
Hoping SDA can get some good minutes in the KHL.

He will be playing with leafs prospect Semyon Kizimov
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I would strongly consider keeping him over there for the entire season if he gets good enough playing time. Would be better than playing in the ECHL if we are not planning on using him in the AHL.

The issue is I doubt he gets much playing time. Novgorod has two former top AHLers as their top 2 C's (Kloos and Miele) and then have two guys who have been on the team since last year in their bottom 6. Neither are impossible to beat, but they'd likely stick to their incumbents unless SDA really helps out their team.
 
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SeaOfBlue said:
I believe his model heavily values production (which is fair since that is really the only publicly available stat) and if you look at a guy like Liljegren solely based off of his production in the AHL as an 18/19 year old, it is obviously not great... And he is being compared to guys who are generally the cream of the crop. However, keep in mind that he has been playing tough minutes from pretty much day 1 there, whereas most other guys his age are spoon fed offensive minutes and cushy matchups that would really play up in his model.

Liljegren did not come out of nowhere, he is now just being recognized for what he has always been: a top prospect.
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The NHLe models are great but there is a sampling issue for players that have taken Liljegren or Sandin’s development path. Not only is there not a particularly large sample of players that have played in the AHL when they were 18, or 19, the ones that did were the cream of the crop, generally high draft picks like the William Nylanders or the Radek Faksas ... guys that teams have high expectations of and who will get some NHL minutes. Generally these rookies are given easier minutes. During his Marlies tenure, Liljegren’s role did also change to a more defensive oriented one but he’s also had to contend with multiple high ankle sprains. Not only was his play impacted(quickness, pivots) but also his initial exposure to the NHL.

maybe it’s just me but I think the expectations placed on Liljegren were part of the reason why he fell - he was highly touted coming into his draft year as a top-5 pick but fell to our hands. I think he’s been written off far too early, especially since both he and Sandin have been outperforming their colleagues. This downtime is good and bad since they both need the NHL reps but for a guy like Sandin, this extra time can be instrumental in getting up to game shape.
 
cookie said:
maybe it’s just me but I think the expectations placed on Liljegren were part of the reason why he fell - he was highly touted coming into his draft year as a top-5 pick but fell to our hands. I think he’s been written off far too early, especially since both he and Sandin have been outperforming their colleagues. This downtime is good and bad since they both need the NHL reps but for a guy like Sandin, this extra time can be instrumental in getting up to game shape.
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Completely agree on the expectations point with Liljegren.

I'd also add he was touted as a flashy offensive defenseman coming into his draft year but that's just not been his role and I don't think he's that type of player. I see him as a guy who uses his skating to be a good transition defender.

I would actually compare him to Dermott in a lot of ways. Similar size, both good skaters, good defenders at even strength/2nd PK type of guys, and both have good offensive tools but I don't see the creativity for either to be big point producers at the NHL level.
 
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SeaOfBlue said:
I believe his model heavily values production (which is fair since that is really the only publicly available stat) and if you look at a guy like Liljegren solely based off of his production in the AHL as an 18/19 year old, it is obviously not great... And he is being compared to guys who are generally the cream of the crop. However, keep in mind that he has been playing tough minutes from pretty much day 1 there, whereas most other guys his age are spoon fed offensive minutes and cushy matchups that would really play up in his model.

Liljegren did not come out of nowhere, he is now just being recognized for what he has always been: a top prospect.
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I completely agree. It's just this past season is pretty much the first one on that list where he didn't either have mono, or be placed in a defense-first role. His first real PP minutes were this past season, and although he may never be a "star" in the producing sense, he definitely has the ability to be a star in the Slavin-style sense.

I do think production in the minors is a huge gauge for future NHL success; especially at younger ages in pro leagues, but there are obviously cases where it really means nothing either way (especially for defenseman).
 
VanW27 said:
Completely agree on the expectations point with Liljegren.

I'd also add he was touted as a flashy offensive defenseman coming into his draft year but that's just not been his role and I don't think he's that type of player. I see him as a guy who uses his skating to be a good transition defender.

I would actually compare him to Dermott in a lot of ways. Similar size, both good skaters, good defenders at even strength/2nd PK type of guys, and both have good offensive tools but I don't see the creativity for either to be big point producers at the NHL level.
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I mean Liljegren isn't a flashy player offensively but he did just have the 9th highest PPG ever for a 20 year old defensemen in the AHL. If he managed just 1 more point he would have been 4th.

He also managed that with secondary PP time most of the year where guys like Theodore/Faulk/Green/Brannstrom all had the majority of powerplay opportunities.

His offense is better than most give him credit for.
 
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LeafsOHLRangers98 said:
I mean Liljegren isn't a flashy player offensively but he did just have the 9th highest PPG ever for a 20 year old defensemen in the AHL. If he managed just 1 more point he would have been 4th.

He also managed that with secondary PP time most of the year where guys like Theodore/Faulk/Green/Brannstrom all had the majority of powerplay opportunities.

His offense is better than most give him credit for.
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I dont think he's devoid of offensive ability I just dont see high end offense there - especially compared to the pre draft hype of a high risk pp QB type player.

Back to the Dermott comparison, he had 18 pts in 28 games vs. 30 pts in 40 games for Liljegren as 20 year olds in the AHL. Liljegren does have a better shot which could help make him a 2nd pp guy though.
 
VanW27 said:
I dont think he's devoid of offensive ability I just dont see high end offense there - especially compared to the pre draft hype of a high risk pp QB type player.

Back to the Dermott comparison, he had 18 pts in 28 games vs. 30 pts in 40 games for Liljegren as 20 year olds in the AHL. Liljegren does have a better shot which could help make him a 2nd pp guy though.
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Dermott was 21 when he had 18 points in 28 games. He had 24 points in 59 games as a 20 year old.
 
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