This is my end of the year prospect breakdown. I will start at the bottom at #20 and make my way to the top. There will be a separate post for every prospect. I will try to make one daily. By my criteria, Liljegren and Sandin are still prospects so they will be included in this one. I will also be revealing who I feel took the biggest step, dropped the most, and most underrated prospect and so on.
New info is bolded.
#13. W. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
LYR: 7
Overview
We are now at one of the most interesting prospects in the system. I thought about SDA at 6, but he stayed at 7 because while his upside is higher, the next player is closer to the NHL. SDA was drafted in 2018 which was Dubas’s first draft as Leafs GM. Leafs drafted SDA 76th overall, and was also the youngest player in the draft. Leafs got this pick after trading down from 25th overall to receive the 29th pick and this pick. In his draft year, SDA had decent production for such a young with the Petes of the OHL. He followed that up with a great developmental, rookie and training camp, where he earned himself a surprising ELC from the team. He really enamoured himself with his youthful energy and excitement. However, his post draft year was more than just a disappointment, and he didn’t look like the same player as before. This season he once again was great in all 3 camps, and he followed it up with a great season with the Petes where he was an elite playmaker he is known for. With Covid delaying things in the AHL, SDA decided to head over to the KHL. This was going to be a huge step for him and there was a decent chance his kind of player would struggle. He ended up handling things very well surprisingly. After his season was over in the KHL, he played a few games with the Marlies and handled himself well there too. With the AHL expected to get back to normal, SDA will play full time. There are still questions of how his kind of player will look in pro hockey, but his start was promising in 2 good leagues.
Stats
2019/2020
OHL
GP: 55
Goals: 12
Assists: 63
Points: 75
Rating: +11
2020/2021
KHL
GP: 17
Goals: 2
Assists: 4
Points: 6
Rating: -1/
Shots: 29
AHL
GP: 6
Goals: 0
Assists: 4
Points: 4
Rating: -2
Shots: 6
Statistical Analysis
SDA had 51 points in 68 games in his draft year, so his production in his D+1 actually got worse in terms of PPG. When comparing even strength primary primary points, that also took a decent hit. In his draft year, it was 0.279, and his D+1 draft year it decreased to 0.241. His shot rate increased but it only went up 1.60 so nothing to talk about. He was terrible last season, and he also didn’t shoot, so it really put a damper on his NHL chances. He played a few games for the Growlers after the season where he looked good from reports. Forward to this season, and he was a different player and was more of the player from old. He was 3rd in the league in assists, and while some of the might have to do playing with Robertson, he still was fantastic, and talking to Petes fans this season, SDA was really good. His ES primary points rose to 0.49, pretty much doubling his rate from last year. He also shot more but it’s again still low at 2.15 S/GP. His goals doubled as well to 12 goals which again is too low to give you confidence about his NHL chances. We don’t know what happened in his D+1, but he was great in 19/20 . SDA was solidly productive in the KHL. 6 in 17 may not seem great, but he was hit by a length injury at the wrong time when he had better numbers. At the time of his month long injury, he had 5 points in 10 games and was playing really well. He was handling the step up well which was a pleasant surprise. He had just under 2 shots a game. 4 of his points came at ES. After his team was eliminated in the playoffs, he went to the Marlies and played well there as well. 3 of his 4 points came on the PP. He was productive in 2 good leagues, but a full season next year will be telling in the AHL.
Talent Analysis
Breakdown of grades:
1- Poor
2- Below average
3- Average
4- Good
5- Great
Player Grades: Present/Future
Skating: 3/3.5
Shot: 2.5/3
Puck Skills: 5/5
Defence: 2.5/3
Compete: 3.5/3.5
IQ/Smarts: 3.5/3.5
His skating is average. There isn’t an explosiveness factor, so he doesn’t really stand out when he skates. As a result, he might not help that much on rushes. I don’t mind his agility honestly, as he can make good fakes and moves against opposing players, but he does lack an extra gear which is not a good thing for a player like him.
Here is the aspect that pretty much drives almost all SDA’s value. He is a true playmaker at the most extreme level. He is one of the best passers not only in the OHL, but all of junior hockey. I might argue he is at worst #3 is terms of best playmakers in the system. He can pass with the best of them, where it’s with creativity, or just solid passes to teammates. His pass usually lands right on the tape of his teammates and he gets it them in the right places. He uses his vision to spot things that some might not see, and is able to get it to his teammate. What also helps with this is his puck handling skills. He can handle the puck in tight spaces, which then opens up options for his team. It’s kind of tough to evaluate his shot since he doesn’t shoot much, but it’s fair to say that’s it not much a weapon.
He does need to work on this aspect which is expected. SDA’s coach in Peterborough Rob Wilson said he showed improvement this season various ways. Where he needs to be off the puck, or just increased back pressure on the opposition. He won’t ever be amazing defensively, but you don’t need to do too much to at least becomes average in this regard
I haven’t seen anything out of the ordinary for his compete, so he gets the 3 as normally prospects do. SDA was competing this season a lot more then last season, so he should be fine. I would say he improved his compete to a 3.5 where last time I had it as a 3. He’s probably still perimeter oriented but he was willing to go in the corners more the season which is a positive.
I give him an above average grade. When you’re as good a playmaker as him, some of that has to do with your IQ and just puck skill. He reads plays well in the offensive zone, and makes the right pass, but a catch with that which really occurred last year, he over handled the puck which took him from a good scoring chance to a less dangerous chance, so I can’t give him a 4, but he has improved in this aspect.
My future projection: A lot of questions for a player like him, and there still are. His performance in 2 good leagues is a good sign, but we need a bigger sample size next year. I feel we will be surprised, but next year might be the deciding factor. This good thing about SDA is he has looked good everywhere except the D+1.
NHL Player? No, based on the history of non goal scorers despite high assists totals, but steps are being taken.
