Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2023-23 Season Edition

[Prominence]

I think the leading scorer of the best junior league in north america could have helped the us team.

 

[stickty111]

I think the leading scorer of the best junior league in north america could have helped the us team.

Junior national teams always make strange decisions where it's coaching or selection. Remember when Rielly was benched by Spott in the World Juniors. The favoritism of Murray in that tournament was really bad.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

Junior national teams always make strange decisions where it's coaching or selection. Remember when Rielly was benched by Spott in the World Juniors. The favoritism of Murray in that tournament was really bad.

Oh man...you just brought that memory back and I remember that shit grinding my gears. holy lol

 

[nuck]

No Minten again tonight.

 

[nuck]

Wonder if Andreas Johnsson could be the 2023 Alex Galchenyuk line 2 replacement minus the playoff giveaway?

He was decently productive in 21-22 with 2.11 pp60 and then got demoted after 2 games this year so they could play Eric Haula and Fabian Zetterland who have 7g between them. The money would be a better fit this time around. He strikes me as bound for Chicago or AZ maybe.

 

[Jacquestrapless]

 

[Morgs]

Crazy how much I feel like eating my words on this pick already. Couldn't believe we took an OA Russian playing in the MHL with very average production... And now we have a 19 year old playing legit minutes in the KHL and actually producing in them. On pace to be the first non-1st round/NA Russian in the Shanny tenure to actually turn into something.

 

[SprDaVE]

Crazy how much I feel like eating my words on this pick already. Couldn't believe we took an OA Russian playing in the MHL with very average production... And now we have a 19 year old playing legit minutes in the KHL and actually producing in them. On pace to be the first non-1st round/NA Russian in the Shanny tenure to actually turn into something.

He would have easily been on Team Russia at the WJC if they were there.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

 

[Byron Bitz]

Wow a KHL team actually gave a young player pp time

 

[67Cup]

Grebenkin/Grebyonkin was 17th in points in the MHL last season, with more than a ppg. Elite Prospects - MHL Stats 2021-202. His 64 points was the same as the 13th ranked player in the MHL and he was second on his team in scoring, one point behind his team leader. FWIW, the Black Book rated him 42 overall in the draft, a mid second rounder. That may have been a clever projection.

 

[Morgs]

Grebenkin/Grebyonkin was 17th in points in the MHL last season, with more than a ppg. Elite Prospects - MHL Stats 2021-202. His 64 points was the same as the 13th ranked player in the MHL and he was second on his team in scoring, one point behind his team leader. FWIW, the Black Book rated him 42 overall in the draft, a mid second rounder. That may have been a clever projection.

Those numbers are brutal for a D1. Its actually shocking they had him there despite how toolsy he is. Scouting is all about projection, but sometimes the numbers (especially when it comes to Russian hockey) are absolutely VITAL. There are 10+ D0 or D-1 guys a year that put up better numbers than that and 90% of them turn into nothing. Besides maybe 5 teams, the rest of the MHL would be completely overmatched by a horrid team like Niagara. Basically unless you're a late birthday D0 or a D-1, it's hard to think much of any MHL numbers unless youre a guy like Yurov.

Russian prospects are harder to gauge than basically any other because they dont care about developing NHL prospects. My rule of thumb is they either need to be U21 putting up real big numbers in the VHL, or putting up real numbers in the KHL (more importantly given real icetime especially at a young age) or else they have almost no chance at making an impact in NA. Grebyonkin is having almost an unprecedented season if you only consider the KHL games hes played with his new team. Based on NHLe I think he would be first for all our non-AHL prospects, but I haven't done the math.

 

[Prominence]

Those numbers are brutal for a D1. Its actually shocking they had him there despite how toolsy he is. Scouting is all about projection, but sometimes the numbers (especially when it comes to Russian hockey) are absolutely VITAL. There are 10+ D0 or D-1 guys a year that put up better numbers than that and 90% of them turn into nothing. Besides maybe 5 teams, the rest of the MHL would be completely overmatched by a horrid team like Niagara. Basically unless you're a late birthday D0 or a D-1, it's hard to think much of any MHL numbers unless youre a guy like Yurov.

Russian prospects are harder to gauge than basically any other because they dont care about developing NHL prospects. My rule of thumb is they either need to be U21 putting up real big numbers in the VHL, or putting up real numbers in the KHL (more importantly given real icetime especially at a young age) or else they have almost no chance at making an impact in NA. Grebyonkin is having almost an unprecedented season if you only consider the KHL games hes played with his new team. Based on NHLe I think he would be first for all our non-AHL prospects, but I haven't done the math.

I did some light pick224 analysis on grebyonkin and even though he scored less than ovechkinov, grebyonkin’s production metrics surpassed ovechkinov. In summary, grebyonkin accounted for more of his team’s scoring 5v5, had more of an impact, and was more efficient in scoring. What the pick224 data does not do is account for teammates, quality of competition, coaching, etc. Nevertheless, we can expect grebyonkin to get an elc soon since ovechkinov got one.

 

[supermann_98]

I can't believe Thomas Milic was passed over in the draft the way he's playing in the WJC. His style reminds me of Belfour the way he's always in position, and even tho he's below average height for the new NHL style goalie I'm wondering how high of a pick we could get him with this draft

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I can't believe Thomas Milic was passed over in the draft the way he's playing in the WJC. His style reminds me of Belfour the way he's always in position, and even tho he's below average height for the new NHL style goalie I'm wondering how high of a pick we could get him with this draft

Most teams now see a goalie with a height under 6'1 and just completely disregard them. It has been interesting to me that most of the top goalies in this tournament have all been undersized by NHL standards.

 

[Morgs]

I did some light pick224 analysis on grebyonkin and even though he scored less than ovechkinov, grebyonkin’s production metrics surpassed ovechkinov. In summary, grebyonkin accounted for more of his team’s scoring 5v5, had more of an impact, and was more efficient in scoring. What the pick224 data does not do is account for teammates, quality of competition, coaching, etc. Nevertheless, we can expect grebyonkin to get an elc soon since ovechkinov got one.

Yeah the issue is just that basically every Russian in the NHL that did their junior there was way ahead of Grebyonkin at the same point in his D1. Unless it was an Abramov-style D1 (it wasn't) where you're like 20 points ahead of 2nd on the team, there's very little in the profile to suggest he was even worth a pick in the draft. There are guys like this who go undrafted every year and they're not D1s. The Leafs must have loved the tools, and they're getting back some early rewards.

 

[daethfromabove1979]

Grebyonkin with an assist on the only goal scored today in 1-0 win.



Goal is at 1:24

 

[ULF_55]

Grebyonkin with an assist on the only goal scored today in 1-0 win.



Goal is at 1:24

Blue and White lost another?

 

[Duke16]

Canada has such a small number of returning players next season.

Only Bedard, Fantilli, Beck, and Korchinski can return, and at least one of them won't be.

It's very possible that both Minten and Moldenhauer can work their way into that mix with strong starts to next season.

 

[Prominence]

Canada has such a small number of returning players next season.

Only Bedard, Fantilli, Beck, and Korchinski can return, and at least one of them won't be.

It's very possible that both Minten and Moldenhauer can work their way into that mix with strong starts to next season.

Bedard and Fantilli won't be back. Montreal fans think beck will make the team next year and if Korchinski has rielly-like trajectory, he won't be either.

 

[LeafSteel]

I can't believe Thomas Milic was passed over in the draft the way he's playing in the WJC. His style reminds me of Belfour the way he's always in position, and even tho he's below average height for the new NHL style goalie I'm wondering how high of a pick we could get him with this draft

If I understood correctly, Milic is free to sign with any team at this point, as he went undrafted in 2 drafts.

If I’ve understood correctly that he’s a UFA, we could do a lot worse than to give him a shot and see if it’s just WJC magic or he’s a legit prospect we can develop….

 

[Duke16]

Bedard and Fantilli won't be back. Montreal fans think beck will make the team next year and if Korchinski has rielly-like trajectory, he won't be either.

Yea, I went through some 2022/23 names and came up with this general list as names to watch for now. It's largely based on draft pedigree, but it's probably at least 90% correct regarding names who will be in the large mix overall. I'll even leave Fantilli out, as well as Bedard of course:

Forwards (26):
Beck, M. Savoie, Geekie, Firkus, Minten, Ludwinski, Haight, Poitras, Goyette, Dumais, Moldenhauer, McConnell-Barker, S. Savoie, Guindon, Benson, Yager, Barlow, Cristall, Heidt, Wood, Ritchie, Gauthier, Howe, Rehkopf, Ziemmer, Danielson

Defense (12):
Korchinski, Mateychuk, Pickering, Lamoureux, Luneau, Warren, Nelson, Buchinger, Donovan, George, Allen, Bonk

Goalies:
Probably Ratzlaff and no clue who else lol, maybe Di'Vincentiis

 

[613Leafer]

If I understood correctly, Milic is free to sign with any team at this point, as he went undrafted in 2 drafts.

If I’ve understood correctly that he’s a UFA, we could do a lot worse than to give him a shot and see if it’s just WJC magic or he’s a legit prospect we can develop….

We've got a bit of a goalie logjam, plus we're near the contract limit.

I agree though that it's an interesting prospect (especially given his CHL resume is also very good - the primary knock against him is that he's only 6'0), just not sure how you realistically make room for him.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

Canada has such a small number of returning players next season.

Only Bedard, Fantilli, Beck, and Korchinski can return, and at least one of them won't be.

It's very possible that both Minten and Moldenhauer can work their way into that mix with strong starts to next season.

was fantelli a good factor in the games? genuine questions for the limited games I saw didn't feel like it to me but then again I saw limited games.

 

[stickty111]

Voit goal and assist
Miller goal and assist