See for me timelines and age is one of the most important things when looking at a prospects future success. The Holls, Zuccarellos, and Giordanos of the world are far less likely to show themselves in their mid-late 20's than tbe average guy still looking for their shot. They're the exception for a reason. I'd have some faith in Peksa just looking at his numbers in a relatively decent junior league, but when taking all the context into account it looks like his best bet is a future goalie in the KHL. His numbers are impressive, but those are the types of numbers guys his age put up in the VHL. Not only that, but he's so blocked in his org that even a promotion to the VHL in his D3 seems like it may not happen. Hes even more blocked from the KHL, somewhere virtually every Russian goalie that comes over spends some time. He's already about to turn 20, he's so far behind a typical Russian goalie with some hopes of a NHL career that even if by some miracle he makes the KHL in the next season or two, he'd need to show unbelievable consistency in the 2nd best league in the world for the Leafs to bother. There's always guys that buck trends (why Peksa has a 24% and not 0% even though nobody has ever done it), but there's way less upside and way less chance of a guy hitting like that. Even with upward trajectory he's still 2 years behind Ahktyamov (who is the same draft class).
The difference with Abruzzese though is there is precedent that a dominant D2 guy in the USHL can translate into a NHL career. For example (using Bader's model again) he had a 48% chance of playing 100+GP after his unreal D2 with Chicago. That jumped even higher after his "freshman" season and D+3 to 59%. There are always reasons to doubt players like them, but unlike Abruzzese, Peksa pretty much showed 0 upside on their respective draft days.
I think the only difference with respect to timelines is that opportunity is fewer and further between for goaltending.
If you look at Petruzelli for example, how many AHL rosters would he be on if he wasn't in the Leafs organization? My guess is over half
So it's really hard to fault a guy like Keith or Peksa in the previous example for playing in the league they are in sometimes. Which kind of skews the timeline logic a bit. It is much easier to play higher levels as a skater, even if that is in a reduced capacity.
Not saying that you specifically are, but we shouldn't be comparing Peksa (6th rounder) to fellow countrymen and KHL products like Shesterkin, Samsonov, Sorokin, Vasy...etc. His progression was never going to be as rapid. Same goes for Akthyamov. These players were drafted with the hopes of one day becoming an NHL goalie, and there likely was little to no timeline on that when they made those selections IMO. Whereas the top tier guys, even Joe Woll, You'd be making that selection with more of an idea on high and low projection in terms of timeline. I think any goalie selection made outside of the top 3 rounds are kind of set and forget, slow cooker type of prospects. Let them marinate in whatever league they are in and just cross your fingers they eventually put it all together. Even if they become NHL'ers at 27, that's likely 5 good years of tending.
With Peksa and Akhtyamov I see raw ability in both of them. They are both very athletic, and maybe with they right coaching could become something.
Woll on the other hand is neither athletic or technically sound IMO. It would take major improvement in his game to become a true NHL #1 IMO.
