Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2021/22

[Orfieus]

I believe Dimitri Ovchinnikov was supposed to come over to play with the Marlies beginning in March. I'm wondering if the isolation of Russia (due to their invasion of Ukraine) is going to prevent him from coming over. Any insights?

If he isn't in Canada now it is literally impossible for him to come over now

edit: ok might not be literally but for right now he simply cannot fly out of Russia. Also I would be worried as a player that countries might stop allowing Russians through their borders altogether so he may not risk the journey

 

[Morgs]

ECHL is kind of a death zone for goalies, especially 23 year old ones statistically. His stats look amazing, but it really is one of the weakest pro leagues out there. Bader's model even with his unreal season has him being a NHL goalie for 100GP at a 24% chance currently. Dropped from a 32% before the season and a peak of 37% in his D2. It's not to say he isn't a great goalie prospect and exactly one of the guys that does make up that 24% of guys who make it though.

Here's all our goalie prospects based on his model (based on % chance of playing 100gp+)

Woll - Peak: 48% (D1), Current: Aged out, 32% final
Petruzzelli - Peak: 37% (D2), Current: 24% (D5)
Scott - Peak: 26% (D1), Current: 6% (D5)
Peksa - Peak: 24% (D2), Current: 24% (D2)
Ahktyamov - Peak: 45% (D1), Current: 40% (D2)
Kallgren - Peak: 36% (D4), Current: Aged out, 31% final.

My money has them ranked:
1. Akhtyamov
2. Petruzzelli
3. Kallgren
4. Woll
-
5. Scott
6. Peksa

 

[SprDaVE]

ECHL is kind of a death zone for goalies, especially 23 year old ones statistically. His stats look amazing, but it really is one of the weakest pro leagues out there. Bader's model even with his unreal season has him being a NHL goalie for 100GP at a 24% chance currently. Dropped from a 32% before the season and a peak of 37% in his D2. It's not to say he isn't a great goalie prospect and exactly one of the guys that does make up that 24% of guys who make it though.

Here's all our goalie prospects based on his model (based on % chance of playing 100gp+)

Woll - Peak: 48% (D1), Current: Aged out, 32% final
Petruzzelli - Peak: 37% (D2), Current: 24% (D5)
Scott - Peak: 26% (D1), Current: 6% (D5)
Peksa - Peak: 24% (D2), Current: 24% (D2)
Ahktyamov - Peak: 45% (D1), Current: 40% (D2)
Kallgren - Peak: 36% (D4), Current: Aged out, 31% final.

My money has them ranked:
1. Akhtyamov
2. Petruzzelli
3. Kallgren
4. Woll
-
5. Scott
6. Peksa

I really thought Woll was solid in his NHL starts. I don't know if it would last that much long-term but I think he showed that he has some form of NHL quality.

I do like Kallgren too though.

 

[Morgs]

I really thought Woll was solid in his NHL starts. I don't know if it would last that much long-term but I think he showed that he has some form of NHL quality.

I do like Kallgren too though.

Yeah I have the four of those guys as relatively similar upsides. Probably max out as backup goalies for a few years, with some chance they can be starters or have a long backup career.

Scott and Peksa I don't think will ever see NHL games at this point.

 

[Twine Tickler]

ECHL is kind of a death zone for goalies, especially 23 year old ones statistically. His stats look amazing, but it really is one of the weakest pro leagues out there. Bader's model even with his unreal season has him being a NHL goalie for 100GP at a 24% chance currently. Dropped from a 32% before the season and a peak of 37% in his D2. It's not to say he isn't a great goalie prospect and exactly one of the guys that does make up that 24% of guys who make it though.

Here's all our goalie prospects based on his model (based on % chance of playing 100gp+)

Woll - Peak: 48% (D1), Current: Aged out, 32% final
Petruzzelli - Peak: 37% (D2), Current: 24% (D5)
Scott - Peak: 26% (D1), Current: 6% (D5)
Peksa - Peak: 24% (D2), Current: 24% (D2)
Ahktyamov - Peak: 45% (D1), Current: 40% (D2)
Kallgren - Peak: 36% (D4), Current: Aged out, 31% final.

My money has them ranked:
1. Akhtyamov
2. Petruzzelli
3. Kallgren
4. Woll
-
5. Scott
6. Peksa

Ya I can't say I am opposed to those rankings TBH. Although I do believe Peksa has more potential to play 100 games in the NHL over Scott at this point. Realistically he could also rise up even higher on that list with a strong D3 season in a better league.

I think the most rounded goalie at the current moment is Kallgren. I think he could play in the NHL as a backup right now personally.

 

[Morgs]

Ya I can't say I am opposed to those rankings TBH. Although I do believe Peksa has more potential to play 100 games in the NHL over Scott at this point. Realistically he could also rise up even higher on that list with a strong D3 season in a better league.

I think the most rounded goalie at the current moment is Kallgren. I think he could play in the NHL as a backup right now personally.

Sure, Peksa can be above Scott but I honestly didn't really think about it. Peksa is in a league where no goalie has ever been in their D2 that made the NHL in any capacity. The sheer amount he'd have to overcome for me is larger than Scott, but I don't give either much thought.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I really thought Woll was solid in his NHL starts. I don't know if it would last that much long-term but I think he showed that he has some form of NHL quality.

I do like Kallgren too though.

Honestly, Woll played with our team this year at the peak of our defensive play. We completely neutered NYI and SJ when he got the call. Pretty sure Hutch could have looked like a stud in those games.

To me his start against Buffalo was more indicative of how he'd consistently be in the NHL. Sure it was his first NHL start so there was inherently going to be some nerves there, but he was really erratic in the blue paint IMO. Seemed to not track the play at a high level, which gave him that delayed response. It lead to a decent amount of second chances and it forced him to unnecessarily battle for loose pucks off rebounds. I've seen that level of "erraticness" in the AHL for him as well. I think that's where I make the Reimer comp.

That said, Reimer has had a phenomal career all things considered. Truthfully I have no clue how, but he's still going in the NHL. Never thought of James as an overly athletic or skilled goaltender. He just battled. So there is still hope for Woll.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Sure, Peksa can be above Scott but I honestly didn't really think about it. Peksa is in a league where no goalie has ever been in their D2 that made the NHL in any capacity. The sheer amount he'd have to overcome for me is larger than Scott, but I don't give either much thought.

Ya for sure. I personally don't put a great deal of stock into timelines as long as there is a linear progression to their game. He's also being somewhat boxed out in what appears to be a relatively deep system in Kazan.

I think the same logic could apply to a guy like Abruzzese if we were to correlate where he presently is vs. where he should be as a 22 year old. His development may have been delayed amongst his peers in the 1999 birth years, but as he showed in the Olympics, he has a lot to be excited about IMO.

It's why we have been able to extract the value out of those later round picks potentially as well. Peksa being one of them.

I still think Peksa is a long shot, I agree with you on that. But I won't look at his age and where he is playing as an overarching negative to his projectability on playing in the NHL. I just weight his current success less. If that makes any sense. As in, Peksa is in a league where he should absolutely dominate, which he is. To me that is progress despite it being a league he should not be in. Now if he were to play in that league again next year, and does not exceed those numbers, then I would begin to question his progression.

 

[Morgs]

Ya for sure. I personally don't put a great deal of stock into timelines as long as there is a linear progression to their game. He's also being somewhat boxed out in what appears to be a relatively deep system in Kazan.

I think the same logic could apply to a guy like Abruzzese if we were to correlate where he presently is vs. where he should be as a 22 year old. His development may have been delayed amongst his peers in the 1999 birth years, but as he showed in the Olympics, he has a lot to be excited about IMO.

It's why we have been able to extract the value out of those later round picks potentially as well. Peksa being one of them.

I still think Peksa is a long shot, I agree with you on that. But I won't look at his age and where he is playing as an overarching negative to his projectability on playing in the NHL. I just weight his current success less. If that makes any sense. As in, Peksa is in a league where he should absolutely dominate, which he is. To me that is progress despite it being a league he should not be in. Now if he were to play in that league again next year, and does not exceed those numbers, then I would begin to question his progression.

See for me timelines and age is one of the most important things when looking at a prospects future success. The Holls, Zuccarellos, and Giordanos of the world are far less likely to show themselves in their mid-late 20's than tbe average guy still looking for their shot. They're the exception for a reason. I'd have some faith in Peksa just looking at his numbers in a relatively decent junior league, but when taking all the context into account it looks like his best bet is a future goalie in the KHL. His numbers are impressive, but those are the types of numbers guys his age put up in the VHL. Not only that, but he's so blocked in his org that even a promotion to the VHL in his D3 seems like it may not happen. Hes even more blocked from the KHL, somewhere virtually every Russian goalie that comes over spends some time. He's already about to turn 20, he's so far behind a typical Russian goalie with some hopes of a NHL career that even if by some miracle he makes the KHL in the next season or two, he'd need to show unbelievable consistency in the 2nd best league in the world for the Leafs to bother. There's always guys that buck trends (why Peksa has a 24% and not 0% even though nobody has ever done it), but there's way less upside and way less chance of a guy hitting like that. Even with upward trajectory he's still 2 years behind Ahktyamov (who is the same draft class).

The difference with Abruzzese though is there is precedent that a dominant D2 guy in the USHL can translate into a NHL career. For example (using Bader's model again) he had a 48% chance of playing 100+GP after his unreal D2 with Chicago. That jumped even higher after his "freshman" season and D+3 to 59%. There are always reasons to doubt players like them, but unlike Abruzzese, Peksa pretty much showed 0 upside on their respective draft days.

 

[Twine Tickler]

See for me timelines and age is one of the most important things when looking at a prospects future success. The Holls, Zuccarellos, and Giordanos of the world are far less likely to show themselves in their mid-late 20's than tbe average guy still looking for their shot. They're the exception for a reason. I'd have some faith in Peksa just looking at his numbers in a relatively decent junior league, but when taking all the context into account it looks like his best bet is a future goalie in the KHL. His numbers are impressive, but those are the types of numbers guys his age put up in the VHL. Not only that, but he's so blocked in his org that even a promotion to the VHL in his D3 seems like it may not happen. Hes even more blocked from the KHL, somewhere virtually every Russian goalie that comes over spends some time. He's already about to turn 20, he's so far behind a typical Russian goalie with some hopes of a NHL career that even if by some miracle he makes the KHL in the next season or two, he'd need to show unbelievable consistency in the 2nd best league in the world for the Leafs to bother. There's always guys that buck trends (why Peksa has a 24% and not 0% even though nobody has ever done it), but there's way less upside and way less chance of a guy hitting like that. Even with upward trajectory he's still 2 years behind Ahktyamov (who is the same draft class).

The difference with Abruzzese though is there is precedent that a dominant D2 guy in the USHL can translate into a NHL career. For example (using Bader's model again) he had a 48% chance of playing 100+GP after his unreal D2 with Chicago. That jumped even higher after his "freshman" season and D+3 to 59%. There are always reasons to doubt players like them, but unlike Abruzzese, Peksa pretty much showed 0 upside on their respective draft days.

I think the only difference with respect to timelines is that opportunity is fewer and further between for goaltending.

If you look at Petruzelli for example, how many AHL rosters would he be on if he wasn't in the Leafs organization? My guess is over half

So it's really hard to fault a guy like Keith or Peksa in the previous example for playing in the league they are in sometimes. Which kind of skews the timeline logic a bit. It is much easier to play higher levels as a skater, even if that is in a reduced capacity.

Not saying that you specifically are, but we shouldn't be comparing Peksa (6th rounder) to fellow countrymen and KHL products like Shesterkin, Samsonov, Sorokin, Vasy...etc. His progression was never going to be as rapid. Same goes for Akthyamov. These players were drafted with the hopes of one day becoming an NHL goalie, and there likely was little to no timeline on that when they made those selections IMO. Whereas the top tier guys, even Joe Woll, You'd be making that selection with more of an idea on high and low projection in terms of timeline. I think any goalie selection made outside of the top 3 rounds are kind of set and forget, slow cooker type of prospects. Let them marinate in whatever league they are in and just cross your fingers they eventually put it all together. Even if they become NHL'ers at 27, that's likely 5 good years of tending.

With Peksa and Akhtyamov I see raw ability in both of them. They are both very athletic, and maybe with they right coaching could become something.

Woll on the other hand is neither athletic or technically sound IMO. It would take major improvement in his game to become a true NHL #1 IMO.

 

[stickty111]

Big game for Hirvonen today. Goal and 2 assists. The goal was on the PP. He's now passed last year's point total in 14 less games. 23 points in 40 games this season. Others get more attention, but he's had a great season so far.

 

[Morgs]

I think the only difference with respect to timelines is that opportunity is fewer and further between for goaltending.

If you look at Petruzelli for example, how many AHL rosters would he be on if he wasn't in the Leafs organization? My guess is over half

So it's really hard to fault a guy like Keith or Peksa in the previous example for playing in the league they are in sometimes. Which kind of skews the timeline logic a bit. It is much easier to play higher levels as a skater, even if that is in a reduced capacity.

Not saying that you specifically are, but we shouldn't be comparing Peksa (6th rounder) to fellow countrymen and KHL products like Shesterkin, Samsonov, Sorokin, Vasy...etc. His progression was never going to be as rapid. Same goes for Akthyamov. These players were drafted with the hopes of one day becoming an NHL goalie, and there likely was little to no timeline on that when they made those selections IMO. Whereas the top tier guys, even Joe Woll, You'd be making that selection with more of an idea on high and low projection in terms of timeline. I think any goalie selection made outside of the top 3 rounds are kind of set and forget, slow cooker type of prospects. Let them marinate in whatever league they are in and just cross your fingers they eventually put it all together. Even if they become NHL'ers at 27, that's likely 5 good years of tending.

With Peksa and Akhtyamov I see raw ability in both of them. They are both very athletic, and maybe with they right coaching could become something.

Woll on the other hand is neither athletic or technically sound IMO. It would take major improvement in his game to become a true NHL #1 IMO.

I'm not sold on Woll either. I just don't see the upside in a guy like Peksa when Ahktyamov stagnating this season has already put a huge damper on his future prospects in being the next non-1st/2nd round Russian goalie coming over, and he's still arguably 2 (probably more) steps ahead and the same hockey age.

But I'm also a pure stats guy when it comes to goaltending scouting. If a guy can stop the puck in the right level or a level above they get a +. If they are in a league they're too old for its expected for them to be this good as the bare minimum. He's not a non-prospect for me like at the beginning of the year, but he's not in my top-30 Leafs prospects and below all the guys that are attached to us including a guy who hasn't played in like 3 years now.

 

[Morgs]

That xGF would be troubling if we didn't know the Marlies get dominated to an insane degree every game. Time to get a new damn coach.

 

[Knies iT]

ECHL is kind of a death zone for goalies, especially 23 year old ones statistically. His stats look amazing, but it really is one of the weakest pro leagues out there. Bader's model even with his unreal season has him being a NHL goalie for 100GP at a 24% chance currently. Dropped from a 32% before the season and a peak of 37% in his D2. It's not to say he isn't a great goalie prospect and exactly one of the guys that does make up that 24% of guys who make it though.

Here's all our goalie prospects based on his model (based on % chance of playing 100gp+)

Woll - Peak: 48% (D1), Current: Aged out, 32% final
Petruzzelli - Peak: 37% (D2), Current: 24% (D5)
Scott - Peak: 26% (D1), Current: 6% (D5)
Peksa - Peak: 24% (D2), Current: 24% (D2)
Ahktyamov - Peak: 45% (D1), Current: 40% (D2)
Kallgren - Peak: 36% (D4), Current: Aged out, 31% final.

My money has them ranked:
1. Akhtyamov
2. Petruzzelli
3. Kallgren
4. Woll
-
5. Scott
6. Peksa

With any other organization Petruzzeli is in the AHL this year. It was apparent by the 10 game mark that he was too good for the ECHL - in the games I've watched, the Growler commentators laugh at the fact that he's still in that league.

I care less about those models when it comes to goalies. Petruzzeli has dominated every level he's played at to this point, from his L2 in the NCAA to his ECHL rookie season, and was Detroit's top goalie prospect pre-Cossa. HFWings thought he could handle a 1A role in the AHL with intermittent call-ups, similar to what Woll's been given. That's probably ambitious, but the Leafs are taking a very slow burn approach with him due to their AHL depth and that's not necessarily representative of how good he is/isn't.

I'd bet money that he outperforms Woll right out of the gate with the Marlies.

 

[Twine Tickler]

With any other organization Petruzzeli is in the AHL this year. It was apparent by the 10 game mark that he was too good for the ECHL - in the games I've watched, the Growler commentators laugh at the fact that he's still in that league.

I care less about those models when it comes to goalies. Petruzzeli has dominated every level he's played at to this point, from his L2 in the NCAA to his ECHL rookie season, and was Detroit's top goalie prospect pre-Cossa. HFWings thought he could handle a 1A role in the AHL with intermittent call-ups, similar to what Woll's been given. That's probably ambitious, but the Leafs are taking a very slow burn approach with him due to their AHL depth and that's not necessarily representative of how good he is/isn't.

I'd bet money that he outperforms Woll right out of the gate with the Marlies.

Ya I agree.

When assessing the profiles of Woll and Petruzelli I just see way more NHL upside from Petru. I don't doubt Woll might get into the league at some point maybe as a backup, I just don't think his style lends itself to being a goalie that can be relied upon to shoulder 60 games. Petru obviously not a guarantee for that load either, I just see him as better bet personally.

Maybe that's because I am really low on Woll personally, but I also think Petru has every tool to be a modern day NHL goalie. But then again so did Jonus Gustavsson

 

[Morgs]

With any other organization Petruzzeli is in the AHL this year. It was apparent by the 10 game mark that he was too good for the ECHL - in the games I've watched, the Growler commentators laugh at the fact that he's still in that league.

I care less about those models when it comes to goalies. Petruzzeli has dominated every level he's played at to this point, from his L2 in the NCAA to his ECHL rookie season, and was Detroit's top goalie prospect pre-Cossa. HFWings thought he could handle a 1A role in the AHL with intermittent call-ups, similar to what Woll's been given. That's probably ambitious, but the Leafs are taking a very slow burn approach with him due to their AHL depth and that's not necessarily representative of how good he is/isn't.

I'd bet money that he outperforms Woll right out of the gate with the Marlies.

Ya don't get me wrong I think he's our 2nd best goalie "prospect" (not technically affiliated with us). I'm just saying that we need to take the numbers in the ECHL with a grain of salt. It's clear he's too good for that league, but his age + the fact he's never played above a very poor men's league doesn't exactly scream future starting goalie until he proves it. My hopes are still higher with him than anyone else besides Ahktyamov.

 

[stickty111]

Great news that Voit is in the lineup for today's game for Sarnia. It looked bad when he was hit.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Great news that Voit is in the lineup for today's game for Sarnia. It looked bad when he was hit.

That is great news! I thought he was gonna be gone for a few weeks for sure.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Holy god Sarnia is just pathetic. Basically Voit, Degurse and Burke are the only good players on that team. Hell the only reason either Degurse or Burke are fine is because they're old.

 

[Magic Man]

Joey Duszak is a magician as a forward. The Clune - Douglas - Duszak line is beastly.

 

[SprDaVE]

 

[Legion34]

Ya don't get me wrong I think he's our 2nd best goalie "prospect" (not technically affiliated with us). I'm just saying that we need to take the numbers in the ECHL with a grain of salt. It's clear he's too good for that league, but his age + the fact he's never played above a very poor men's league doesn't exactly scream future starting goalie until he proves it. My hopes are still higher with him than anyone else besides Ahktyamov.

but what your league context is missing is that most who play in the echl aren’t good enough for the A at his age.

The leafs are unique in that we specifically use the echl as a development league. It’s not that he can’t make it. Its that this was the plan from the start.

 

[Maplebeasts]

And Sarnia goes on to score 10 goals on 28 shots. Ty Voit with a goal and assist. Junior hockey is a wonder.

 

[aingefan]

Joey Duszak is a magician as a forward. The Clune - Douglas - Duszak line is beastly.

Ha, I thought he might be.
I wish I noticed this game. Woulda been better to follow than that leafs stinker.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Sucks that Niemela is hurt. Like one point off the record too..