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Prospect Info: Marlies & Prospect Discussion

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Originally posted in The Athletic shorty after the 2022 draft
Pick No. 4: Nikita Grebenkin
Drafted: Fifth round, No. 135 | Position: RW
Age: 19 | Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 183 pounds
2021-22 Stats: 58 GP, 17 G, 47 A, 64 pts (Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk, MHL )

The Skinny: There’s skill in Grebenkin’s game to go with his size. He put together two solid seasons in Russia’s junior league, leading his team in playoff scoring this year with 13 points in nine games. The Leafs hope that skill translates as he battles for a spot on Metallurg Magnitogorsk’s KHL roster next season. There appears to be confidence from within the team that he can make the jump.

“The word that came back to us on him was machine-like,” said Clark. “And he can make plays. I know he’s a re-entry. He’ll go and try and battle for a spot in the KHL. We like that. We like the competitiveness.”

Dubas didn’t sound all that hesitant about Grebenkin’s future, given that he is a Russian player, saying that they tried to do “as much homework as we possibly could on his situation.” It sounds like there’s at least some initial interest in Grebenkin eventually coming to play in North America whenever that is an option and his play warrants it. The Leafs also seem understanding that Grebenkin will have a longer development path.
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TheDoldrums said:
Cowan being played at centre is interesting. He's already bigger than a guy like Point and will keep adding muscle. I know it's still more likely he ends up on the wing but it's nice to dream of the versatility he might provide if he can do it at the NHL level.

I'm not worried about his defensive game with his PK exploits and how hard he works out there. If he happens to stick in the middle suddenly our centre prospect depth looks decent with Cowan as a 2nd/3rd line guy and Minten as a 3rd/4th line option.
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Really hope he sticks at center. Next year start him on JT’s wing and the year after he gets JT’s spot at 2C or 3C, at 1/11th the price
 
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canary said:
Anyone know what's up with Jay O'Brien? Has not played a game for the Marlies all season.
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Yeah I asked that a while ago too. He got injured before the season started and no one’s heard squat about him since. Can’t even find any injury update on him. Too bad as I was really curious to see how he’d fit. Hopefully he’s okay and it’s not something career threatening.
 
Cowan is going to be a gamer. Hopefully we ease him in and don’t have crazy expectations though. A third line of McMann - Tavares - Cowan would be good.
 
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supermann_98 said:
Really hope he sticks at center. Next year start him on JT’s wing and the year after he gets JT’s spot at 2C or 3C, at 1/11th the price
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What’s the split been for him at C, versus the wing? How much is he playing there? And is he flanking on the right or left? I think I asked before, but don’t recall any input.

If he can project at C that’s pretty optimal I’d think. In which case it might be best for him to spend all of next season honing his C skills in the O.

Whatever that ends up being for him, but what a great ride and story since his draft. Ima just continue to enjoy it.
 
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aingefan said:
What’s the split been for him at C, versus the wing? How much is he playing there? And is he flanking on the right or left? I think I asked before, but don’t recall any input.

If he can project at C that’s pretty optimal I’d think. In which case it might be best for him to spend all of next season honing his C skills in the O.

Whatever that ends up being for him, but what a great ride and story since his draft. Ima just continue to enjoy it.
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He will learn more our players JT Mathews Kampf to some degree and coaching staff.
Probably wing for the next 2 season.
Sliding in at center when 3 or 4 times a game.
In the rookie tournament I thought he was better at center
 
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aingefan said:
What’s the split been for him at C, versus the wing? How much is he playing there? And is he flanking on the right or left? I think I asked before, but don’t recall any input.

If he can project at C that’s pretty optimal I’d think. In which case it might be best for him to spend all of next season honing his C skills in the O.

Whatever that ends up being for him, but what a great ride and story since his draft. Ima just continue to enjoy it.
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He is sixth on the club in faceoff attempts and the worst of the six at 48.1%. Julien will be back as the main guy next year (over 1000 draws at 56%) O'Rielly as well who took twice as many draws as EC but was only fractionally better at 46.7%. If he gets more reps, and if he works on it he will get better. More to it than just faceoffs of course. Didn't Mitch get a whiff of center his last year in Junior?
 
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Stephen said:
Not even sure I'd classify Steeves and Abruzzese as AAAA guys. They seem to be properly slotted in the AHL.
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And I think when we only have to give up a 4th and Ovchinnikov to get a far superior player in Dewar it shows that Steeves and Abruzzesse hold very little value other than emergency depth.

And that is at the trade deadline where shopping prices are at their highest.

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The Iceman said:
And I think when we only have to give up a 4th and Ovchinnikov to get a far superior player in Dewar it shows that Steeves and Abruzzesse hold very little value other than emergency depth.

And that is at the trade deadline where shopping prices are at their highest.

​

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There's a pretty big difference between Ovchinnikov and Steeves. Ovchinnikov was a healthy scratch for most of the year, on a pretty average Marlies team, and obviously has a long way to go to be anywhere near as capable as Steeves.

Every single NHL team in this league has Steeves, Abruzzesses and Ovchinnikovs to throw around. They have different levels of value and quality to some degree. They aren't all invaluable but for sure they aren't really in demand per say. Leafs have been fairly healthy upfront for the year so a lot of the AAAA forwards didn't get much of a chance.

For my money though, I think in the next couple years or so Steeves will find a home in the NHL somewhere. He's got some good tools. I hope he can be brought back for next season as a depth guy but I'm not sure he will be.
 
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Sounds like Webber has every intention of signing with the Leafs when his season is over.

Trading for Webber feels like one of the first steps toward transitioning to a more youthful back end. And after the 2019 Hurricanes fourth-round pick did not sign with Carolina, Webber has every intention of aiding that transition.

“That’s the plan,” Webber said when asked if he wants to sign with the Leafs. “I want to get up there, compete, and be part of what’s happening there for the next few years.”
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theathletic.com

Towering new Maple Leafs prospect Cade Webber may be on fast track to NHL

Acquired at the trade deadline, 6-foot-7 defenceman Cade Webber's best traits might see him become part of the Leafs soon enough.
theathletic.com theathletic.com
 
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SprDaVE said:
There's a pretty big difference between Ovchinnikov and Steeves. Ovchinnikov was a healthy scratch for most of the year, on a pretty average Marlies team, and obviously has a long way to go to be anywhere near as capable as Steeves.

Every single NHL team in this league has Steeves, Abruzzesses and Ovchinnikovs to throw around. They have different levels of value and quality to some degree. They aren't all invaluable but for sure they aren't really in demand per say. Leafs have been fairly healthy upfront for the year so a lot of the AAAA forwards didn't get much of a chance.

For my money though, I think in the next couple years or so Steeves will find a home in the NHL somewhere. He's got some good tools. I hope he can be brought back for next season as a depth guy but I'm not sure he will be.
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I wouldn’t even call Steeves a AAAA guy. He’s really an AAA guy with the potential to make the jump but probably needs to do the grunt stuff to just hang onto an NHL roster before the other abilities pop. Like McMann’s progression path.
 
Stephen said:
I wouldn’t even call Steeves a AAAA guy. He’s really an AAA guy with the potential to make the jump but probably needs to do the grunt stuff to just hang onto an NHL roster before the other abilities pop. Like McMann’s progression path.
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He's been a quality AHLer for awhile and hasn't looked out of place in the few NHL games he got. That's really nitpicking an arbitrary title because he's basically the next in line for a call-up... the Leafs just haven't had to recall a forward in a bit. AAAA just means he's great in the AHL but not quite good enough for the NHL every day.
 
SprDaVE said:
He's been a quality AHLer for awhile and hasn't looked out of place in the few NHL games he got. That's really nitpicking an arbitrary title because he's basically the next in line for a call-up... the Leafs just haven't had to recall a forward in a bit. AAAA just means he's great in the AHL but not quite good enough for the NHL every day.
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AAAA traditionally means a dominant AHL player who can’t secure a regular role in the NHL. With expansion that type of 100 point AHL player no longer really exists since anyone who can play is basically filling 32 rosters already. Steeves is just an AHL guy with a TBD future in the NHL.
 
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horner said:
The best part is he can skatefor someone 6 6' 7" he could probably slide in at forward if need be

11 forwards
7 dman
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I heard he was *very* average as a skater but his reach is definitely disruptive.

He cost a 6th round pick so if we get a good defensive defenseman that can block shots / PK and ideally finish some checks, that is super valuable.
 
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nuck said:
He is sixth on the club in faceoff attempts and the worst of the six at 48.1%. Julien will be back as the main guy next year (over 1000 draws at 56%) O'Rielly as well who took twice as many draws as EC but was only fractionally better at 46.7%. If he gets more reps, and if he works on it he will get better. More to it than just faceoffs of course. Didn't Mitch get a whiff of center his last year in Junior?
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I actually really want OReilly at the draft
 
Phion Keneuf said:
Maybe he develops into our version of Chara?

Would be much needed lol
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More likely to be Hal Gill than anything. He has zero offense to his game, unlike Chara. He has 1 goal in 4 years of NCAA lol

If he does well in the NHL, he'd be a very rare case of being able to make it despite really bad offensive output in junior. I do hope his overall game is really good to make up for his lack of puck ability and with some development -- it can.
 
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hockeynorth said:
I actually really want OReilly at the draft
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He'd be a reach with our first round pick, and then we don't have another pick until the 4th, when he should be gone. He'd be a decent pick with a late second round pick, but we just don't have one.
 
hockeynorth said:
I actually really want OReilly at the draft
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With their 1st? Luck 34 with Button again?

Ranked #62 by CONSOLIDATED RANKING
Ranked #46 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #34 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #73 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #82 by FCHOCKEY
Ranked #61 by DAILY FACEOFF
Ranked #40 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
Ranked #64 by DOBBERPROSPECTS
Ranked #57 by DRAFT PROSPECTS HOCKEY


Easton Cowan’s pre-draft rankings:

  • Ranked #29 BY HOCKEYPROSPECT.COM
  • Ranked #66 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
  • Ranked #89 by THE HOCKEY NEWS
  • Ranked #53 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
  • Ranked #78 by MCKEEN’S HOCKEY
  • Ranked #34 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
  • Ranked #51 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
  • Ranked #55 by DOBBERPROSPECTS
 
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Stephen said:
AAAA traditionally means a dominant AHL player who can’t secure a regular role in the NHL. With expansion that type of 100 point AHL player no longer really exists since anyone who can play is basically filling 32 rosters already. Steeves is just an AHL guy with a TBD future in the NHL.
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I am fairly sure that Steeves will make it eventually. At the very least he should end up a 3rd liner somewhere.
 
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