Player Discussion: Mark S Discussion

[tbcwpg]

It’s very interesting to read a fan forum and see a lot of “I hope we’re not doing too good next year!”….

I think HF is one of the few sites where a team's fans can actively root for their team to start being bad for half a decade.

 

[Guffman]

It's a complicated scenario. There's the fan reaction, sure, but there's also likely to not be many happy campers in the dressing room either. In a market that isn't high on people's list of places to play, you have to weigh that player reaction as well.

Definitely a complicated scenario! I trust Chevy enough to not be reckless with expiring assets but a lot of factors (many to be determined) will have to be considered.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I think HF is one of the few sites where a team's fans can actively root for their team to start being bad for half a decade.

That is because we believe in the power of the Holy Tank Grenade. For the day cometh that Saint Chevy shall raise the tank grenade up on high, saying, "O Lord, bless this Thy tank grenade that, with it, Thou mayest blow this core to tiny bits in Thy mercy".

Nor shall it take half a decade. For it is written, "three years shalt be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, nor either count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out".

And we shall be blessed.

 

[tbcwpg]

That is because we believe in the power of the Holy Tank Grenade. For the day cometh that Saint Chevy shall raise the tank grenade up on high, saying, "O Lord, bless this Thy tank grenade that, with it, Thou mayest blow this core to tiny bits in Thy mercy".

Nor shall it take half a decade. For it is written, "three years shalt be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, nor either count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out".

And we shall be blessed.

I think a rebuild will go as well as brave Sir Robin's quest, but we'll see

 

[DRW204]

don't always love on-ice shot or xGA to rate an individual player defensively, however to give an idea of what scheifele looked like if using league-average or Jets-average shot-against rates (minus scheifele), at 5v5

scheifele was on the ice for 55 GA w/ on-ice sv% of 0.9195.
per-60 mins 5v5 shot rates/GA maintaining scheifele's current on-ice sv% (ofc this can change)

Jets w/ scheifele - 32.49 SOGA/55 GA
Jets w/o scheifele - 28.30 SOGA/48 GA
nhl-average - 30.1 SOGA/51 GA

or by xGA, scheifele was a -5.4 in on-ice xGA vs GA or a factor of 1.098.
per-60 mins xGA rates/GA maintaining xGA vs GA factor (ofc this can change)

Jets w/scheifele on-ice - 2.87 xGA/55 GA
Jets w/o scheifele on-ice 2.60 xGA/50 GA
nhl-averae - 2.66 xGA/51 GA

so you're looking at roughly 5-7 lesser GA given he's receiving the same goaltending - which ofc is a variable in itself that can perhaps change w/ lesser SOG faced. no doubt scheifele needs to improve defensively. but the bigger influence on his on-ice +/- at 5v5 when comparing against Jets averages or league averages id say was his linemates inability to finish.

 

[TS Quint]

Funny how the average fan looks at me with a blank stare when I mention that I love Connor’s goal scoring BUT he is a black hole defensively. Weird how Schiefele gets the hate by the fans for his total lack of engagement in the D zone but Connor gets a pass? With Mark Its just so painful to watch his body language, and once he got the rep fans started to watch for it, but Kyle is probably more useless and somehow hides in plain sight better from his faithful.

I’m giving you that blank stare right now.

Are you seriously comparing the defense of a centre and the F1 winger? The defense of the forward who has the most defensive responsibility Vs the forward who by design is the last man back?

The Connor has a defensive problem is about the most ridiculous narrative on these boards. Comparing Connor and Schiefele’s defense is lunacy.

 

[TS Quint]

I think HF is one of the few sites where a team's fans can actively root for their team to start being bad for half a decade.

Those fans don’t see it that way. To them it’s a year or two to grab a couple top picks and BOOM let’s plan the parade with a couple of 18/19 year olds leading the team. The reality is what you said, closer to a decade.

 

[SUX2BU]

That is because we believe in the power of the Holy Tank Grenade. For the day cometh that Saint Chevy shall raise the tank grenade up on high, saying, "O Lord, bless this Thy tank grenade that, with it, Thou mayest blow this core to tiny bits in Thy mercy".

Nor shall it take half a decade. For it is written, "three years shalt be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, nor either count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out".

And we shall be blessed.

And this …….

 

[MelikeJets]

I hope we trade 55 and keep Helle. Also if Winnipeg can't handle a rebuild are we really an NHL city? At some point we might have to stomach a few years at bottom of the league so load up on antacids now.

 

[tbcwpg]

I hope we trade 55 and keep Helle. Also if Winnipeg can't handle a rebuild are we really an NHL city? At some point we might have to stomach a few years at bottom of the league so load up on antacids now.

I think the city can handle it, I just don't think the fans realize just how long it takes for a market like this.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I would think that Chevy and Jets management are more aligned with the general forum consensus that he should be conducting asset management and trading both players by the TDL if they are not extending. The complicating part is how the Jets are doing and trending near the TDL. I hear ya that if they are doing REALLY well, they will not be selling these pieces off and yep, they will further add. The grey area is if they are floating around the playoff line… then, I think they need to pull the trigger on a trade or do a hard press to get extensions.

I don’t see Chevy blowing his asset management if we’re looking like a non-contending but likely WC team. Honestly would be hugely wasteful to blow these major assets for a likely first round drubbing.

I agree that they would need to pull the trigger if they are in that grey area. I don't think they will. What you will see as the grey area, Chevy will see as doing really well and he will behave accordingly.

Hope I'm wrong.

If it is hard to get good value now, Helle and Scheif would bring big returns at the TD. Could even be transformative.

 

[Guffman]

I agree that they would need to pull the trigger if they are in that grey area. I don't think they will. What you will see as the grey area, Chevy will see as doing really well and he will behave accordingly.

Hope I'm wrong.

If it is hard to get good value now, Helle and Scheif would bring big returns at the TD. Could even be transformative.

Yeah, my prediction is that we would be competing for a playoff spot, we unload Scheifele and Hellebuyck for premium returns, spend some assets acquiring lesser replacements and still end up making the playoffs. We get paddled in the first round but feel good overall about some player progression and a successful turning over of the roster.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah, my prediction is that we would be competing for a playoff spot, we unload Scheifele and Hellebuyck for premium returns, spend some assets acquiring lesser replacements and still end up making the playoffs. We get paddled in the first round but feel good overall about some player progression and a successful turning over of the roster.

Not sure it is a strong prediction, but I like it.

 

[Guffman]

Not sure it is a strong prediction, but I like it.

Heh… well, I just have faith that Chevy wouldn’t completely fark this up. If they pull a Columbus (loading up with rentals and self-rentals) as a bubble team, I would lose my poop. I just don’t see Chevy being that reckless from an asset management point of view.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Heh… well, I just have faith that Chevy wouldn’t completely fark this up. If they pull a Columbus (loading up with rentals and self-rentals) as a bubble team, I would lose my poop. I just don’t see Chevy being that reckless from an asset management point of view.

Hope you're right.
I see the org goal as making the PO as near every year as possible. Making that goal is seen as justification for letting them walk. I don't agree with it. I just suspect that that is the org mind set.

 

[Guffman]

Hope you're right.
I see the org goal as making the PO as near every year as possible. Making that goal is seen as justification for letting them walk. I don't agree with it. I just suspect that that is the org mind set.

If we unload both players, and say we get Vanecek-type goalie back and we pick up a lower-tier center rental, the Jets might still be competing for a playoff spot (with lesser pieces).

I’m thinking it plays out like the Andrew Copp situation.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If we unload both players, and say we get Vanecek-type goalie back and we pick up a lower-tier center rental, the Jets might still be competing for a playoff spot (with lesser pieces).

I’m thinking it plays out like the Andrew Copp situation.

With the apparent weak trade market, we likely get higher value at the TD, though the returns might not necessarily fit needs. I just see us too close to, or above the PO line and no sales being made.

 

[Guffman]

With the apparent weak trade market, we likely get higher value at the TD, though the returns might not necessarily fit needs. I just see us too close to, or above the PO line and no sales being made.

Should make for some interesting drama/discussions as the season goes on. There are a few different takes on this… and I would agree that how are we doing in the standings will impact the ultimate decisions.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Should make for some interesting drama/discussions as the season goes on. There are a few different takes on this… and I would agree that how are we doing in the standings will impact the ultimate decisions.

None of us knows what Chevy will or won't do. We all just interpret what we see, which isn't much.

It will be interesting if they are both here and unsigned when the season opens. Another factor is the possibility of contract seasons being career seasons. If that happens, Jets could have a really good result. We still have 6 pending UFAs.

 

[tbcwpg]

Yeah, my prediction is that we would be competing for a playoff spot, we unload Scheifele and Hellebuyck for premium returns, spend some assets acquiring lesser replacements and still end up making the playoffs. We get paddled in the first round but feel good overall about some player progression and a successful turning over of the roster.

I think trading 55/37 and then buying at the deadline on lesser players is a waste of time. You're likely out early without those two so why waste assets on lesser pieces. Also I'm unsure that if the Jets were fighting for a playoff spot that they would keep that spot without their top goal scorer and top goaltender.

 

[ps241]

I think trading 55/37 and then buying at the deadline on lesser players is a waste of time. You're likely out early without those two so why waste assets on lesser pieces. Also I'm unsure that if the Jets were fighting for a playoff spot that they would keep that spot without their top goal scorer and top goaltender.

The nightmare scenario for the Org is they are in a playoff spot the at the TD……keep 55/37 then miss the playoffs and lose them to FA with no return.

I have settled in to the thought that we will never see a full rebuild in the Chipman ownership era and I am at peace with that. My hope is that at a minimum they follow their version of what the Blues are doing. The Blues have never done a full rebuild that I can remember but they also aren’t scared to sell off key assets to take that one step back.

 

[tbcwpg]

The nightmare scenario for the Org is they are in a playoff spot the at the TD……keep 55/37 then miss the playoffs and lose them to FA with no return.

I have settled in to the thought that we will never see a full rebuild in the Chipman ownership era and I am at peace with that. My hope is that at a minimum they follow their version of what the Blues are doing. The Blues have never done a full rebuild that I can remember but they also aren’t scared to sell off key assets to take that one step back.

One might argue the Blues are still stepping back. Also the Blues can do it a bit easier as players have no problem playing there.

 

[ps241]

One might argue the Blues are still stepping back. Also the Blues can do it a bit easier as players have no problem playing there.

Blues are working a bit of a transition. Last season they flipped some key talent around the deadline but in fairness they were having an off season by their standards. The point is it’s not a full rebuild. Winnipeg retained talent pretty well for quite a while and those we couldn’t keep we did ok swapping out value. It would be a bit tougher here but still doable.

The Zach Dean for Barbachev trade was interesting for me. We’ll see how that works out? I am a Barbashev fan but Dean plays the game the right way and I like his it factor despite his modest skills.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Blues are working a bit of a transition. Last season they flipped some key talent around the deadline but in fairness they were having an off season by their standards. The point is it’s not a full rebuild. Winnipeg retained talent pretty well for quite a while and those we couldn’t keep we did ok swapping out value. It would be a bit tougher here but still doable.

The Zach Dean for Barbachev trade was interesting for me. We’ll see how that works out? I am a Barbashev fan but Dean plays the game the right way and I like his it factor despite his modest skills.

I hope his next contract signing is announced with, Come on Zach Dean, let's go party.

 

[Guffman]

I think trading 55/37 and then buying at the deadline on lesser players is a waste of time. You're likely out early without those two so why waste assets on lesser pieces. Also I'm unsure that if the Jets were fighting for a playoff spot that they would keep that spot without their top goal scorer and top goaltender.

For the same reasons that Chevy did that after trading Copp.