Management Threads | Structure. Standards. Habits.

[RandV]

that's true but that's completely different reasoning than 'we have to make the playoffs or we might lose pettersson/hughes'

But also on this it's not so much 'we have to make the playoffs' as it is 'if we start selling Miller+Horvat+etc for futures...'. Too early to say what will happen next season but what they've done is likely what Pettersson wants to see to start talking about a long term extension.

 

[TruGr1t]

i think that the theory that ep and qh will walk if this team doesn't make the playoffs sells them way short. if either of them force their way out it'll be because they don't have faith in management to build a winner. you can't trick them by sneaking into the playoffs off the back of some short term moves

I understand the Tkachuk-itis around the league as these young guys start to have more leverage, but I agree this reasoning is bogus.

These young players would want a logical, well-articulated vision to compete. The Canucks have pretty much lacked that since Pettersson and Hughes were drafted. Do they have it now? Who knows... they're doing a bit better recently, but Pettersson is certainly going to be in no rush to sign anything, and a lot of the moves have been around the margins.

 

[mriswith]

Everyone mocked "GM Eichel" and yet is eager to project the same assumptions onto Petey and Hughes...

100%. That's why a lot of us didn't want to tank because bye-bye Elias. Then it's 5+ yrs of finding a 1C....maybe more.

It's weird how 2 posts ago you mocked fans that think we need to stay competitive to keep Pettersson, Hughes and Demko. Then your next post you admit Pettersson will walk if we suck.

The last two seasons were lost anyways. Finishing ~5-7 spots higher out of the playoffs the last two years than if we leaned in to the lost seasons has literally zero bearing on EP and Hughes staying, but could have mattered a lot for being able to quickly surround them with young talent.

It's far too late now to consider even a reload let alone a rebuild so it's all moot but the argument of not losing to save EP and Hughes has fallen completely flat because we sucked anyways, as predicted.

 

[credulous]

i'm also not saying ep is not a risk to force his way out. i just think he's probably already made up his mind as to whether he'll extend and signing carson soucy isn't going to factor into it

 

[RandV]

I know there's a lot of variance in what people were thinking for a potential Canucks rebuild but in general I find people on HF greatly underestimate the challenge of a rebuild. It's easy to get going, not so easy to get out of. While yes it's a challenge to push the team as is to contender status, the challenge to also do so committing to a rebuild is kind of ignored.

Like I always have the big picture in the back of my head but laying it out for the current bottom feeders, keeping in mind that while they may not be tanking hard generally if a team is not in the playoffs they're in some stage of rebuild mode and not doing a Benning I break it down something roughly like:

Made it:
New Jersey - 9/10 years no playoffs before this season.
(And I should add while them being good looks obvious now digging up a seasons prediction from last year as best I good most people don't have them making the playoffs last off season: link)

Rebuilding and trying to make playoffs but wasn't good enough:
Buffalo - 12 years out of playoffs
Vancouver - 7/8 years no playoffs (consider the Pettersson+Hughes draft year a 'rebuild')
Ottawa - 6 years out of playoffs

Attempted to rebuild but not much to show for it:
Arizona - 11 years out of playoffs
Detroit - 7 years out of playoffs

Floundering in a no mans land trying to still compete:
Columbus - 3 years out of playoffs
Philly - 3 years out of playoffs (should be moving to rebuild this season)
Montreal - 2 years out of playoffs

Currently committing to rebuild:
Anaheim - 5 years out of playoffs
San Jose - 4 years out of playoffs
Chicago - 3 years out of playoffs

Now I'm not saying don't rebuild, obviously teams are eventually going to come to a point where there's no choice. But this common idea of '3-5 years pain then contend' I'd say has about as good a chance of working as the Canucks turning their current roster into a contender does.

 

[RandV]

i'm also not saying ep is not a risk to force his way out. i just think he's probably already made up his mind as to whether he'll extend and signing carson soucy isn't going to factor into it

It's impossible to say from a fan perspective, but going into last season I think there's two extreme ends we could have taken.

Rebuild: don't extend but sell all of Miller, Horvat, & Kuzmenko for big futures haul
Compete: extend Miller/Kuzmenko/Horvat or trade them for a different now piece, and trade 1st rounder for now piece.

I'm guessing the chances are really high that if the Canucks did the 1st option Pettersson would be wanting out of here, and while they didn't go all the way with the second option they maybe didn't need to go as far as they did to convince him to stay.

 

[mriswith]

I know there's a lot of variance in what people were thinking for a potential Canucks rebuild but in general I find people on HF greatly underestimate the challenge of a rebuild. It's easy to get going, not so easy to get out of. While yes it's a challenge to push the team as is to contender status, the challenge to also do so committing to a rebuild is kind of ignored.

Like I always have the big picture in the back of my head but laying it out for the current bottom feeders, keeping in mind that while they may not be tanking hard generally if a team is not in the playoffs they're in some stage of rebuild mode and not doing a Benning I break it down something roughly like:

Made it:
New Jersey - 9/10 years no playoffs before this season.
(And I should add while them being good looks obvious now digging up a seasons prediction from last year as best I good most people don't have them making the playoffs last off season: link)

Rebuilding and trying to make playoffs but wasn't good enough:
Buffalo - 12 years out of playoffs
Vancouver - 7/8 years no playoffs (consider the Pettersson+Hughes draft year a 'rebuild')
Ottawa - 6 years out of playoffs

Attempted to rebuild but not much to show for it:
Arizona - 11 years out of playoffs
Detroit - 7 years out of playoffs

Floundering in a no mans land trying to still compete:
Columbus - 3 years out of playoffs
Philly - 3 years out of playoffs (should be moving to rebuild this season)
Montreal - 2 years out of playoffs

Currently committing to rebuild:
Anaheim - 5 years out of playoffs
San Jose - 4 years out of playoffs
Chicago - 3 years out of playoffs

Now I'm not saying don't rebuild, obviously teams are eventually going to come to a point where there's no choice. But this common idea of '3-5 years pain then contend' I'd say has about as good a chance of working as the Canucks turning their current roster into a contender does.

But virtually no one was asking for a rebuild like the teams in your examples.

There's an ocean of a difference between selling your UFA aged players to load up on talent that matches the age of Pettersson and Hughes, and doing a scorched earth rebuild to find a new 1C/1D in the draft like Ana/SJ/Chi/CBJ/MTL/Det/ARI/OTT/etc.

That difference may be (intentionally?) lost in the myriad of straw man arguments made by other posters attacking anyone who wanted to build with the medium and long term in mind but it is important.

Almost everyone who wanted to acquire picks looked at the last two seasons as lost causes and wanted to use that to benefit our future instead of pretending to go for it and getting little of significant value.

Instead we had two lost seasons anyways that were over in the first month of the season, but little to show for any of it. We could be in the exact same place we are right now, minus Miller, but with a ton of additional impactful assets.

We didn't do anything in the last two years other than keep Miller that makes us more competitive next year versus having decisively sold the UFA aged players when new mgmt took over.

Just like there's no argument anymore for trying to reload or acquire picks and prospects, because it's far too late, there's no argument anymore as to what the correct course of action was when new mgmt took over. They obviously should have been selling the UFA aged players, acquiring futures, and viewing the last two years as developmental seasons. 99% of the backlash towards mgmt not doing this right now is just a delayed reaction from average fans who are realizing now that this should have been done two years ago and simply don't understand that what was correct back then is wrong to start now.

 

[DS7]

I know there's a lot of variance in what people were thinking for a potential Canucks rebuild but in general I find people on HF greatly underestimate the challenge of a rebuild. It's easy to get going, not so easy to get out of. While yes it's a challenge to push the team as is to contender status, the challenge to also do so committing to a rebuild is kind of ignored.

Like I always have the big picture in the back of my head but laying it out for the current bottom feeders, keeping in mind that while they may not be tanking hard generally if a team is not in the playoffs they're in some stage of rebuild mode and not doing a Benning I break it down something roughly like:

Made it:
New Jersey - 9/10 years no playoffs before this season.
(And I should add while them being good looks obvious now digging up a seasons prediction from last year as best I good most people don't have them making the playoffs last off season: link)

Rebuilding and trying to make playoffs but wasn't good enough:
Buffalo - 12 years out of playoffs
Vancouver - 7/8 years no playoffs (consider the Pettersson+Hughes draft year a 'rebuild')
Ottawa - 6 years out of playoffs

Attempted to rebuild but not much to show for it:
Arizona - 11 years out of playoffs
Detroit - 7 years out of playoffs

Floundering in a no mans land trying to still compete:
Columbus - 3 years out of playoffs
Philly - 3 years out of playoffs (should be moving to rebuild this season)
Montreal - 2 years out of playoffs

Currently committing to rebuild:
Anaheim - 5 years out of playoffs
San Jose - 4 years out of playoffs
Chicago - 3 years out of playoffs

Now I'm not saying don't rebuild, obviously teams are eventually going to come to a point where there's no choice. But this common idea of '3-5 years pain then contend' I'd say has about as good a chance of working as the Canucks turning their current roster into a contender does.

I would include a few more teams in the "made it" category

Maple Leafs
Colorado Avalanche
New York Rangers
LA Kings
Florida Panthers

Two of them finished a cycle of competing in a cup final and rebuilding back to a playoff team during the Benning years (LA, NYR)

The other two have been pretty consistent playoff appearances since their rebuild years and winning in the lotto (Leafs - 2016, Avs - 2013)

Panthers took a little longer after their rebuilding lottery win years but they've also succeeded in getting out of that basement and making playoffs in a tough division


Not discounting that yes, you can end up like an Arizona or Buffalo in a rebuild, but far more teams succeed in it than not as it the league gives very good handicaps and rewards for rebuilding teams.

On a strategic level, I'd argue there was no better time in the league's entire history to rebuild than during the flat cap era from Covid, when you can leverage cap space for additional picks and prospects at a greater rate than we will probably never see again.

 

[pitseleh]

Now I'm not saying don't rebuild, obviously teams are eventually going to come to a point where there's no choice. But this common idea of '3-5 years pain then contend' I'd say has about as good a chance of working as the Canucks turning their current roster into a contender does.

What are the examples of teams in Vancouver’s position that have been successful with their type of approach though? The Canucks are basically the Ottawa, Arizona or Buffalo of 3-5 years ago, pressing ahead despite no real prior success.

Carolina is probably the closest comparable, and they’ve been the smartest kid in the room for a while now. Not sure we’ve seen the same level of smarts from this group.

 

[DS7]

What are the examples of teams in Vancouver’s position that have been successful with their type of approach though? The Canucks are basically the Ottawa, Arizona or Buffalo of 3-5 years ago, pressing ahead despite no real prior success.

Carolina is probably the closest comparable, and they’ve been the smartest kid in the room for a while now. Not sure we’ve seen the same level of smarts from this group.

St. Louis Blues is really the other comparable I can think of that succeeds while consistently competing, but they've pretty much nailed a lot of their late draft picks.

We've been the early 2000s JFJ Leafs unfortunately. Worst of both worlds (winning % and draft capital)

 

[Bubbles]

On a strategic level, I'd argue there was no better time in the league's entire history to rebuild than during the flat cap era from Covid, when you can leverage cap space for additional picks and prospects at a greater rate than we will probably never see again.

Exactly. The retool on the fly, playoffs at any cost strategy has netted no playoffs and the 11th and 15th pick in the two drafts. Imagine if the team doesn't chase those meaningless wins in March and the team would have much higher pick than that. It's the difference between netting a Carlsson/Fantilli and Willander.

I imagine we'll be having this same conversation next year when some other rebuilding team takes Celebrini//Eiserman and we end up picking in the 10th-15th.

 

[racerjoe]

Couple things...

People need to stop saying its been two years of this... Its a bad take. Last year was absolutely a failed season and management should wear that, but the season before was all on Benning. We can talk about what this management team did when they took over, but it wasn't their team that they had anything to do with in terms of success or failure.

Second teams that have done what the Canucks are doing is like most teams... teams are kind of constantly rebuilding, retooling after finding the 4-7 key pieces to build around. Like look at this year with Vegas, it has like what 6 original members from the cup finals team... missed the playoffs last year. The team they played was us a few years ago then won the regular season last year.

This isn't to say its an easy thing to do, I mean how many teams would anyone call a success in the NHL, do you call the leafs a success? How about the rangers? The canes? Or any other team that hasn't wan the cup. Like do you call the 2011 Canucks a success? Cause they did what the current team is trying to do.

No matter what direction the team took it is/was going to be very difficult, but when you manage to get talent like Hughes and Petterson you absolutely try to win until they age out or want out.

 

[VancouverJagger]

My GAWD......is anyone else as ecstatic as me to finally have competent management?

While not entirely perfect at least most of what they have done has been in an organized and intelligent manner. Benning was the ABSOLUTE WORST at free agent signings EVER - what an incredible boob. The Beagle and Poolman contracts (amongst others) were highlights for me of incredibly obvious stupidity.........

Alvin and co. are a MASSIVE breath of fresh air..........1 year deals? Who would have thought? Geezus......Some solid cause for optimism here..........

 

[andora]

My GAWD......is anyone else as ecstatic as me to finally have competent management?

While not entirely perfect at least most of what they have done has been in an organized and intelligent manner. Benning was the ABSOLUTE WORST at free agent signings EVER - what an incredible boob. The Beagle and Poolman contracts (amongst others) were highlights for me of incredibly obvious stupidity.........

Alvin and co. are a MASSIVE breath of fresh air..........1 year deals? Who would have thoughts? Geezus......Some solid cause for optimism here..........

I cannot describe how nervous i was going into saturday morning

I be happy

 

[Huggy43]

On Saturday I was going out of town & was out of cell service by 11. I liked what I saw up to that point but I would be lying if I didn’t worry thinking about turning my phone back on to some Benning-esque disaster. We’re all gonna have PTSD for a while after the last regimes reign of terror.

 

[racerjoe]

My GAWD......is anyone else as ecstatic as me to finally have competent management?

While not entirely perfect at least most of what they have done has been in an organized and intelligent manner. Benning was the ABSOLUTE WORST at free agent signings EVER - what an incredible boob. The Beagle and Poolman contracts (amongst others) were highlights for me of incredibly obvious stupidity.........

Alvin and co. are a MASSIVE breath of fresh air..........1 year deals? Who would have thought? Geezus......Some solid cause for optimism here..........

To be fair to him, Linden when he finally learned to think on his own, for the one season he had control.

 

[MS]

They're obviously not going to do that. The team has been terrible for like a decade, and interest is waning. They have an opportunity to, as a baseline, pretty reliably build themselves a WCE-era type team where you have an inherently flawed team with a group of really, legitimately exciting players that the fans can engage with. It would be stupid of them to waste that, regardless of how much some die-hards want them to only focus on winning the cup and ignore everything else.

The rebuild crowd is disengaged from reality and living in an absolute fantasyland and I can't believe we're actually still having to sift through post after post from people outraged that something that was obviously never going to happen didn't happen.

For the millionth time : teams do not rebuild from the situation we were in. Ever. It doesn't happen.

And yes, Benning's incompetence means we won't get a decade+ Pittsburgh window out of this. But as you say, that doesn't mean you can't get a WCE-type 5-year window.

But where has Allvin actually said/shown this? It was a dumb statement from Benning from I believe one of his sad sack end of season pressers after failing again when the guy couldn't even build a team that could make the playoffs in the first place. Then with Allvin in place as the new GM and he didn't start rebuilding, fans like yourself plucked that old Benning quote and started applying it to new management as if saying something clever. Or even a lot of it was just thrown out there in pointless fan bickering between rebuild vs retool till it stuck to the point that it may as well been a real quote from Allvin.

It shouldn't be hard to understand. You don't typically make the playoffs for the first time after however many years and are immediately in contention to win the Cup. Regardless of what the Canucks are doing, for any rebuilding team unless you're really lucky there is a 'make the playoffs consistantly' step between the 'rebuild' and 'contend/win' step.

Yeah, there is a massive difference from having 'make the playoffs' as the first step toward a goal of building something better and having 'make the playoffs' as your end goal the way Jim Benning did.

You don't go overnight from a non-playoff team to a Stanley Cup contender but people seem to have built up this false dichotomy to then complain about it. If we done the full rebuild that people want, guess what? In a few years the first step coming out of that would be 'make the playoffs'.

To me it looks like they're making changes without actually making improvements.

Hronek could be looked at as a meaningful improvement if he actually comes back fully healthy and carries a 2nd pair, but that remains to be seen. For all we know he has a bum shoulder.

Hronek had the sort of 4-6 week injury that pretty much every player has multiple times in their career and would have played if we were in the playoff hunt. Didn't require surgery and - unlike Ethan Bear who might legitimately now have a bum shoulder - there is absolutely no reason to thing there will be any sort of long-term issue there.

And of course Hronek is a HUGE meaningful improvement. This is one of the top U25 RDs in the NHL.

Cole and Soucy are also meaningful improvements, especially on the PK - we've added 2 top PK defenders and replaced guys like OEL who were f***ing terrible there.

 

[Diogenes92]

Hronek had the sort of 4-6 week injury that pretty much every player has multiple times in their career and would have played if we were in the playoff hunt. Didn't require surgery and - unlike Ethan Bear who might legitimately now have a bum shoulder - there is absolutely no reason to thing there will be any sort of long-term issue there.

And of course Hronek is a HUGE meaningful improvement. This is one of the top U25 RDs in the NHL.

Cole and Soucy are also meaningful improvements, especially on the PK - we've added 2 top PK defenders and replaced guys like OEL who were f***ing terrible ththere.

I'm pretty sure Hronek has had multiple issues with the same shoulder. Its not some stand-alone 4-6 week injury that we should all just forget about. Its something to keep an eye on.

Hronek turns 26 in November. He isn't U25.

Cole and Soucy are 3rd pair plug and play guys. Not top 4 game-breakers. I'm sure they will be an improvement on OEL, Bear, etc. But that isn't saying much.

Oh, and fans are allowed to state their opinions and hopes for the future of the team. It's not you or other fans place to tell fans to stop hoping for a rebuild "because its not reality".

 

[andora]

I'm pretty sure Hronek has had multiple issues with the same shoulder. Its not some stand-alone 4-6 week injury that we should all just forget about. Its something to keep an eye on.

Hronek turns 26 in November. He isn't U25.

Cole and Soucy are 3rd pair plug and play guys. Not top 4 game-breakers. I'm sure they will be an improvement on OEL, Bear, etc. But that isn't saying much.

Oh, and fans are allowed to state their opinions and hopes for the future of the team. It's not you or other fans place to tell fans to stop hoping for a rebuild "because its not reality".

Re: shoulder, dont remember seeing anything

Are they improvements or not? Relying on gamebreakers as the measuring stick is obtuse. If we can get a 10 to 15% bump on the PK that is astronomical

 

[MS]

I'm pretty sure Hronek has had multiple issues with the same shoulder. Its not some stand-alone 4-6 week injury that we should all just forget about. Its something to keep an eye on.

Hronek turns 26 in November. He isn't U25.

Cole and Soucy are 3rd pair plug and play guys. Not top 4 game-breakers. I'm sure they will be an improvement on OEL, Bear, etc. But that isn't saying much.

Oh, and fans are allowed to state their opinions and hopes for the future of the team. It's not you or other fans place to tell fans to stop hoping for a rebuild "because its not reality".

The injury history stuff I can find indicates that this is the first time in his career he's missed games due to a shoulder issue.

He has had 2 concussions which is actually more of a concern to me. The shoulder isn't at all.

___________

Cole played top-4 minutes for freaking TB last year. Soucy is I think a good bet to handle more minutes given his results over the past few years. Both are solid reliable pros and very good PK guys who are huge upgrades on the dreck we've been watching over the past couple years, in particular OEL who was a total tank commander.

 

[Diogenes92]

Re: shoulder, dont remember seeing anything

Are they improvements or not? Relying on gamebreakers as the measuring stick is obtuse. If we can get a 10 to 15% bump on the PK that is astronomical

Astronomical in what sense? Fighting for a wildcard spot at seasons end? Making a run in the playoffs?

I'm making the point that over-celebrating the signing of two 3rd pair level guys isn't some huge cause for celebration.

It happens every off-season with a large portion of this fanbase. They overestimate what the team actually is based on a paper roster.

I do think Cole's contract is fantastic in terms of being very low risk. Soucy, I'm not so sure about. The cap going up will help to mitigate his contract if he doesn't do well.

Will an improved PK help them win a few more games? Yes. But I don't think anybody really expects them to be as bad at PKing as they were last season anyways. They were on pace for a historically bad PK under BB.

Am I being a Negative Nancy? Probably. But you can thank a decade of Canucks stagnation for that.

 

[credulous]

Cole played top-4 minutes for freaking TB last year. Soucy is I think a good bet to handle more minutes given his results over the past few years. Both are solid reliable pros and very good PK guys who are huge upgrades on the dreck we've been watching over the past couple years, in particular OEL who was a total tank commander.

cole got passed by both perbix and raddysh in tampa over the course of the season. if cernak hadn't gotten injured he would have been 6th in minutes in the playoffs

there's also a huge difference between playing top 4 minutes behind hedman, sergachev and cernak and behind hughes, hronek and soucy

cole is a good signing who will help the pk but the canucks defense is still near league bottom especially if they go into the season with both soucy and cole expected to provide top four minutes

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

The rebuild crowd is disengaged from reality and living in an absolute fantasyland and I can't believe we're actually still having to sift through post after post from people outraged that something that was obviously never going to happen didn't happen.

For the millionth time : teams do not rebuild from the situation we were in. Ever. It doesn't happen.

And yes, Benning's incompetence means we won't get a decade+ Pittsburgh window out of this. But as you say, that doesn't mean you can't get a WCE-type 5-year window.

I think there's a truth to this, but suppose we make the playoffs next year, how do we build on that?

We definitely have space for EP + Hronek, but what else? We have ~$15M coming off the books, but then effectively $2.2M of that goes to OEL buyout, additionally $2M the next year. That's pretty well $13M to spend on damn near an entire bottom 6, and half a D-corps. Sure, we may get a cap increase but *everyone* benefits from that, so it doesn't move the needle enough.

I think, trying to optimistic here, but a shorter window doesn't mean we'll even be able to make noise in the playoffs. It just means we'll be one of 16 teams in the playoffs. Hopefully I'm wrong. But I think if everything goes right, it can be a WCE-comparable team. Who do we have the best chance of jumping next season out of VGK, SEA, EDM, LA? I don't even know if we can jump Calgary.

 

[TruGr1t]

What are the examples of teams in Vancouver’s position that have been successful with their type of approach though? The Canucks are basically the Ottawa, Arizona or Buffalo of 3-5 years ago, pressing ahead despite no real prior success.

Carolina is probably the closest comparable, and they’ve been the smartest kid in the room for a while now. Not sure we’ve seen the same level of smarts from this group.

The Canucks are in a rather unique position since the farm system is so bloody devoid of talent that they really can't rely on any sort of impact players emerging on ELCs to cushion the salary cap crunch as the core players hit their prime earning years. It makes building an actual contender nearly impossible due to the waterfall impact of renewing contracts, the over-reliance on free agency, and the various issues with positional scarcity around the league at the moment.

The only real thing that could change the fortunes materially is some sort of miraculous pop-off in the farm system where you have a bunch of later draft picks break out across the line-up.

I'd argue people who think this team can open a meaningful window are just as delusional as anyone expecting a full-on teardown in a gate-driven market. Both are probably not happening.

It has been known for a long time you simply can't build a great team through free agency. I'm not sure why anyone thinks the Canucks are going to succeed at this when it's virtually impossible in a hard-cap league. The situation is compounded when you don't even have assets outside of draft picks to make impact trades.

They're basically stuck tinkering around the edges and praying to God some type of internal improvement leads to at the most a consistent playoff team.

 

[credulous]

I think there's a truth to this, but suppose we make the playoffs next year, how do we build on that?

We definitely have space for EP + Hronek, but what else? We have ~$15M coming off the books, but then effectively $2.2M of that goes to OEL buyout, additionally $2M the next year. That's pretty well $13M to spend on damn near an entire bottom 6, and half a D-corps. Sure, we may get a cap increase but *everyone* benefits from that, so it doesn't move the needle enough.

the canucks have a decent cap situation going forward. myers and beauvillier expire this year and boeser the following year. only garland (edit: and the oel buyout) is really a problem long term. they do need to avoid any big mistakes like extending beauvillier or potentially hronek to inflated deals before they've earned them or signing a big ticket free agent who doesn't live up to their deal but every team needs to do that

the real problem is they have limited ability to add high end talent to the roster. what they've got is basically what they have to work with. if miller, kuzmenko, pettersson, hughes and hronek isn't a stanley cup contending core then they are in tough to make a tkachuk or eichel style deal to add a player to put them over the top. they don't have a tage thompson or huberdeau to build a deal around and they aren't likely to see a player of that calibre come out of their prospect pool