me2
Go ahead foot
Adam Fox pulled a Lindros twice and nobody cares or talks about it. Why shouldn't Bedard.
But yes. I agree with your point
Assuming he wants to go to Vancouver what can we offer? Pettersson+Hughes? We don't have the assets.
Adam Fox pulled a Lindros twice and nobody cares or talks about it. Why shouldn't Bedard.
But yes. I agree with your point
That’s why I didn’t count cap space increase at all .Not to nitpick your nitpick but use cap increase is being called into question given that Balley Sports’ owner will likely file for bankruptcy and leave the NHL without those payments.
No college loophole for BedardAdam Fox pulled a Lindros twice and nobody cares or talks about it. Why shouldn't Bedard.
But yes. I agree with your point
Didn't realize it was performance bonuses pushing his AAV higher, my bad. Fox aside, cap point still stands. Be we wouldn't be bringing Panarin to town even if he wanted to with our cap situation.Fox required 925k in cap and a 2nd and 3rd round pick. Any team in the NHL could have acquired him easily.
Can you show me your numbers. That doesnt seem right. Are you calculating OELs buyout cap hit correctly?Actually we do have money, that's the point, you guys haven't looked at this in detail. If we get rid of Myers, Garland, Boeser, buyout OEL next year, extend only Bear and Dermott to a 2M, 1.7M contract, waive Stillman. We have 30.6M in cap if Pearson is placed on LTIR.
In this config, we have 2-3 forward, 4D holes and 1 backup G to sign and 30.6M in cap to do it. Like i said before, we can simply go after 4 one dimensional D that are basically PK specialists and those guys probably cost around 2M each either in FA or probably cost anywhere from 4-5th in trade. Let's say that costs like 10M total. We can splurge a little and spend 1.5M on a backup and we will still have 18.5M to spend on 2 forwards and 1 13th forward. I think we should probably be smart and go for a 4-5M PK center and maybe 2-3M on another 3rd line caliber PK forward.
Our offense will probably not be as strong as this year but I would assume that would at least get the PK back to league average and with a more capable backup, get the goalie sv% back up to around league average.
I highly doubt this gets us to the playoffs.Just doing that would get you to wildcard level without really using any asset and burning through all the available cap.
The thing about elite pieces and inefficient contract. Well we are having a high pick this year no, so there is a reasonable chance that we might get another one there. It's weird to say that only Petey and Hughes have efficient contracts considering Miller, Mik, Kuz and who knows with Demko are performing to or above their contract. You are still making assumptions that management is going to keep everyone when some of us believe that they are trying to get rid of them and are just being overly patient about it.
Next year - 12M left
Kuz - Petey - Pod
Beau - Miller - Mik
Joshua - Smith/UFA - Hog
Aman - UFA - Stud
Hughes - Bear
PK - PK
Pk - PK
Dermott
Demko
1.5backup
You cant just pencil in a rookie as the 2nd line center.Year after next - 10M to spend after taking Beau money and giving it to Petey
Kuz - Petey - Pod
Miller - Smith - Mik
??? - Raty - Hog
??? - ???? -????
Hughes - <upgrade>
<Upgrade> - PK
PK - PK
????
Demko
Silovs
Kuzkenko is gone by this point. You are penciling in Podkolzin as our top LW for some reason?Year after that - no idea how much to spend
Kuz - Petey - Pod
Miller - Smith - <Mik traded and get upgrade>
<drafted> - Raty - <upgrade>
???? -???? -<drafted>
Hughes <upgraded>
<upgraded> -<needs upgrade>
<drafted> - <drafted>
????
Silovs??
????
Its not that "we continue to hang on to" these players. It is that getting rid of bad players and holding on to good players will result in us staying in cap trouble while not accumulating players and assets that are increasing in value.I mean if you continue to believe that we plan to hang on to OEL, Boeser and Garland for as long as we can, yeah then we won't have the cap flex to do stuff. I think once those guys goes away, we'll have money and the existing contracts left aren't bad. The only one that might become bad is Miller and who knows if that is 3 years from now or 4 years.
The NYR would be a good team even without Fox. Maybe not a Cup contender (or at least, currently), but likely still a playoff team. They have a deep roster with a Vezina goalie. Largely because of their rebuild.
They jettisoned a bunch of high priced players, got cap space to use for their rebuild, they used many obtained picks for trades, they have 8 drafted players on the ice and have cap space.Is it "largely because of their rebuild" though? And how long did their rebuild last?
Their Vezina goalie was drafted 2014 in the last 4th round at a time when the Rangers were Cup contenders. When they made the Stepan trade at the 2017 draft they weren't rebuilding. They went out and signed Shattenkirk with the cap space. The next season they sucked and did move Miller and McDonough at the deadline for picks and that was the period of time where they sent that "rebuild letter" to the fans - that was Feb. 2018. The next summer they went out and signed Panarin and traded a 1st for Trouba. By Sept. 2020 they were trading a 2nd round pick to dump one year of Marc Staal.
I used the capfriendly armchair GM tool. Create new team for next year 82.5M cap.Can you show me your numbers. That doesnt seem right. Are you calculating OELs buyout cap hit correctly?
Bear is obviously getting more than 2M. He is playing top4 minutes. We are likely retaining in a Boeser trade.
You are just expecting Dermott to get better and contribute? Why?
I still doubt your 30m in cap. It cant be right. Are you sure you are calculating this correctly?
2 mil for 2 top4 level UFA PK Dmen?
Im starting to get how you think this will work if these are just the type of far out scenarios you are willing to entertain.
I highly doubt this gets us to the playoffs.
We are 8th in scoring this year with essentially zero production outside of Hughes from the backend. OEL is on pace for 30 points.. maybe. Myers on pace for like 15? Bear on pace for 15, Stillman on pace for less than 10. Burroughs nothing essentially. Schenn on pace for 20? The point production is so god damn low there is essentially no downgrading even if you get a bunch of zero offense guys.Our offense is already suspect because our D cant get them the puck. If we get a 2nd D pair that gets paid 2mil a piece thats not going to result in a NHL calibre offense.
You cant just pencil in a rookie as the 2nd line center.
This lineup looks horrific.
At this far out, there should be enough cap to retain Kuz especially if Raty, Smith(or whoever we pick) is in the lineup with a ELC. I purposely not account for any other draft picks that might hit the 3rd/4th line like Klimovich, Karlsson or whoever but for every prospect that can get into the lineup, that's savings for the team to use towards upgrading the roster.Kuzkenko is gone by this point. You are penciling in Podkolzin as our top LW for some reason?
The entire point why I disagree with your plan is that finding Top4 Dmen is really hard and we dont have the assets to trade for them, nor the cap space to overpay for them in UFA. And they rarely become available in UFA.
As I have listed, we are not really in cap trouble, the reality of the league is that once you have good players you have pay them. I think you can only get cap efficiency in 2 ways. Commit to a young player early so when they are at their peak, you are paying less. The other is to not pay mid roster players what they deserve, like for example don't have 4M 3rd line players unless they are 2nd line players pushed down to the 3rd.Its not that "we continue to hang on to" these players. It is that getting rid of bad players and holding on to good players will result in us staying in cap trouble while not accumulating players and assets that are increasing in value.
If we get rid of them there will likey be something lost in the process. Buyout results in us getting an even longer cap hit from OEL, to the years that we are actually likely to compete for something again.
Trading Boeser now, we probably retain and get nothing or very little back. That is cap that is just gone again.
If we took the patient route. Sell high (like we 110% should have on Miller last year and Kuzmenko this year) and build the foundation of a contender. With cap structure that is an asset, not a massive massive flaw.
I think the team you assembled in your posts is really bad. And results in us wasting EPs and QHs primes just like we wasted Horvats prime doing this same plan trying to endlessly retool and overpaying in UFA.
You keep saying what I want is "more exciting" and your "slow build" is not. I disagree. The short term plan is far more easier to stomach for most people, because they dont want to wait.
Also I think divestiture aversion fallacy is greatly at play here. You don't feel anything for the opportunity cost of this plan. You just value what we already have in two great pieces, Hughes and Pettersson and fear what if our next great team after a rebuild doesn't have players of similar level.
As I have listed, we are not really in cap trouble, the reality of the league is that once you have good players you have pay them. I think you can only get cap efficiency in 2 ways. Commit to a young player early so when they are at their peak, you are paying less. The other is to not pay mid roster players what they deserve, like for example don't have 4M 3rd line players unless they are 2nd line players pushed down to the 3rd.
I mean that's why I say we should wait and see. I think management wants to maximize the return in assets while getting rid of the player and that's why nothing is happening. I don't think it's a lack of interest that is driving the lack of activity, I think it's management's hard stance of getting exactly what they want back in return that is the blocker.we're not in cap trouble we just have to find a way to move all these terrible contracts at little/no cost. no biggie
It was called that for suggesting the team trade Pettersson, Hughes etc. A complete tear down, even in the position the team is in, that's still completely unrealistic "video game nonsense. "It’s truly incredible calling for a rebuild last offseason was “15 year old kid video game nonsense” but we’re getting subjected to basically a non-stop diatribes that mimics that iMac tweet listing a lineup of prospects…..
Not true.It was called that for suggesting the team trade Pettersson, Hughes etc. A complete tear down, even in the position the team is in, that's still completely unrealistic "video game nonsense. "
When's the last time a 92 point team decided to do a tear down rebuild?Not true.
Many suggested a tear down and build around those 2 (and Demko).
Edit* and it’s funny how we’re only 100 or so games from potentially having to trade #40….video game nonsense…lol
Not true.
Many suggested a tear down and build around those 2 (and Demko).
Edit* and it’s funny how we’re only 100 or so games from potentially having to trade #40….video game nonsense…lol
Do you not feel that this team, the way it's been assembled, the lack of prospects, cap and to some degree picks (given their place in the standings) along with their clear inability to play together as a team, ie being less than the sum of their parts, is somewhat unique?When's the last time a 92 point team decided to do a tear down rebuild?
Bruce there it is…When's the last time a 92 point team decided to do a tear down rebuild?
You think they’re sticking around for this ?Even if we all knew the defense wasn't good enough. We all knew the team had major warts. There was no way the team was in a position to tear it down and rebuild. That's the unrealistic part. And thinking that Hughes, Pettersson etc would stick around for that.
Do you not feel that this team, the way it's been assembled, the lack of prospects....
You think they’re sticking around for this ?
I'm sure they're not happy with how the season has gone, no.
But after how last year ended with the "Boudreau" bump, no matter how artificial it was, if management commits to a rebuild and started chopping out their legs before the season started... I think they take that worse then what's actually happened.
Good points. I think we're discussing how we'd like to see things play out (and thus get disappointed all over again by reality), vs what management is most likely to do.Doesn't really matter what I feel, realistically management has to not only believe that themselves but also convince ownership that's the path forward.
(Also not directed at you, but in general, my ideas for what the team should do are not the same as what I think JR, PA etc would realistically do. )
Im speechles.I used the capfriendly armchair GM tool. Create new team for next year 82.5M cap.
I buyout OEL, trade away Boeser, Garland, Myers, for nothing (in this tool). Move Pearson to LTIR, send Stillman and Lazar to the minors.
So just doing all of that, and having essentially nobody but Hughes on the D and 3 forward spots open with Hog not signed. That's 35M available.
Go ahead, retain a M on Boeser, ok 34M now. You think Bear is worth more, sure 2.5? 31.5M now. I just kept Dermott because I was being conservative in terms of retaining assets and I don't think he will improve, just having him there as a 7D. Let's say he cost 1.5 just to keep the numbers clean, 30M left.
I've said, its about getting to the wildcard spot first by improving the defensive side of things and PK. And then once you get to that state, you can start to upgrade pieces everywhere.
We are 8th in scoring this year with essentially zero production outside of Hughes from the backend. OEL is on pace for 30 points.. maybe. Myers on pace for like 15? Bear on pace for 15, Stillman on pace for less than 10. Burroughs nothing essentially. Schenn on pace for 20? The point production is so god damn low there is essentially no downgrading even if you get a bunch of zero offense guys.
Hypothetical, if we replace Myers and OEL with a 2D that has a max of like 15 points but can defend and pk. Is that a loss? Not really because Myers and OEL together is basically contributing to like 50 points this year while being destroyed defensively and is part of the reason why we have a historically bad PK. I'll take 30 points from those no offense dman if it means we get average PK.
One thing that was interesting as I was listening to podcast yesterday was Faber talking about Livingstone. Seems like he is interested in us and we are interested in him. If we can get him, that's a 1Mish contract that frees up cap for us to spend maybe 3.25M(Pearsons' LTIR hit) on another D.
One thing that got mentioned was the idea of Fabbro. He took a step back this year and he has a 2.5M QO (Poolman's cap hit). It looks like he PKs, I don't watch enough Preds hockey to know how he is as a player but I guess this is an example of a guy (if he is good at PK) I would go for.
I assume if we draft Smith, he will probably join us like end of next season. Smith is suppose to be like the same level as a prospect as Petey if not better. So even if he can't cut it at 2C as a rookie with Miller and Mik (or Mik upgrade) flanking him, we can always bump him down to 3 and let him and Raty fight for that 3C spot.
You think it looks horrific? Here is what I see.
1st line - 70pt (kuz) + 100pt (Petey) +30/40pt (Pod) = 210ish points
2nd line - 70/80pt (Miller) - 40/50pt(Smith) - 50pt (Mik/Upgrade) = 170/180 points
So around 447 pt production from the 1st 2 line. That's more point production than the Flames top6 from last year when they had the best line in hockey. I think it'll be hard to project what the 3rd line production is from now but it shouldn't be that hard to get a bunch of 30 point guys to play on the 3rd line and I am assuming that's pretty league average.
Hughes is going to be a PPG guy but at this point I really don't know what the rest of the D is going to look like. I said PK PK <Upgarded> <Upgraded> guys so it's like whatever, I would hope that we are able to upgrade via FA.
At this far out, there should be enough cap to retain Kuz especially if Raty, Smith(or whoever we pick) is in the lineup with a ELC. I purposely not account for any other draft picks that might hit the 3rd/4th line like Klimovich, Karlsson or whoever but for every prospect that can get into the lineup, that's savings for the team to use towards upgrading the roster.
I think this is why this TDL and offseason is so crucial. We need to hit on the Isle pick, we need an extra 2nd and extra 3rd. It's also why I think we should not spend too much assets and just grab a bunch of cheap PK D next season so we can continue to accrue prospects.
I guess the goal of this exercise is to show hypothetically how you would build a base and upgrade multiple pieces a year to improve from where we are now -> wildcard -> bottom 7/8th seed -> 3/4th seed
I think it's definitely doable to be a 7th/8th seed in 2 years time. 3/4 seed really depends on how the top pick this year and Isles pick does and also if we manage to add another impact player via FA or trade along the way.
As I have listed, we are not really in cap trouble, the reality of the league is that once you have good players you have pay them. I think you can only get cap efficiency in 2 ways. Commit to a young player early so when they are at their peak, you are paying less. The other is to not pay mid roster players what they deserve, like for example don't have 4M 3rd line players unless they are 2nd line players pushed down to the 3rd.
I think at this stage, we have to get rid of all the players with bad contracts. We don't know why Boeser is going to return, the rumors are all over the place and you are making all kinds of assumptions based on you believing the players we need to get rid of have ZERO value at all. Would Boeser get us a 2nd and prospect with us retaining 1M? I have no idea but it wouldn't surprise me. Garland, we might get a pick and take a cap dump back and that cap dump might be the no offense PK defender and that's great.
There are so many things that has yet to happen but you are projecting the worse case scenario for all of it and basing the need to rebuild around that. I am not arguing, yeah we are definitely getting a shit ton back. I am arguing, I have no idea WTF we are going to get back because we don't talk to GMs and let's wait and see what actually happens and see if we are f***ed or if there is actual hope.
I am not surprised, I present numbers and you present feels. You’ve already have a conclusion made up in your mind, and I am not even trying to convince you. I am just explaining how I see it based on the numbers I see.Im speechles.
Im speechles.