Management Discussion | You can’t handle the Rebuild!

[Peter Griffin]

What I'm saying is that I am unsure if they are even legally allowed to re-sign Horvat/Kuzmenko under the CBA right now given their salary cap allocation for next year. I haven't crunched the numbers and it's a very complicated formula but I'm going to assume they're really close to whatever the limit is because of the raise to Miller and the lack of any big UFA contracts falling off the books. Kuzmenko in particular would probably be a really difficult one to do right now.

It's an interesting idea, and maybe they need to move a contract first before they announce a Horvat re-signing and don't want to put themselves in an even worse position in trade talks. But if that were the case, I don't think management would be saying the things they have been saying with regards to negotiations. To me it fully sounds like it's a situation where Bo and his agent have set a hard line and the Canucks have set a hard line. Either one of the sides caves or it doesn't happen.

 

[theguardianII]

I think it is definitely partly a payroll issue in that they have so much salary tied up in bad contracts that they can't justify to themselves overstepping what they feel Horvat is worth. If say Myers and OEL's contracts magically disappeared, Horvat is probably re-signed, albeit for an amount we'd probably all cringe at.

Especially as this is a really bad team.
There is no justification for handing out these massive contracts, maybe if this was year two and the team was improving but this team is going backwards.
Liking a player because he is a fan favourite is no reason to hand out long term contracts to older vets in their prime now.

If OEL and Myers both magically disappeared the team would be in the Bedard hunt and the 1rst overall hunt for 3 years, the team just doesn't have enough good defencemen in the system to replace them. BUT the added space and improved draft picks would offset the loss over a few years. They would have to sign some other players to bloated contracts to make the cap minimum so why not just keep them? At least the rest of the NHL UFAs might see this as loyalty

The team's cap hit this year, now with these players is 87.3 million, 5 million over the cap limit.
Cap friendly show 14.4 mil in cap space with a 83.5 mil cap but only 14 players signed, they will lose Ferland's 3.5 mil LTIR and possibly have some bonus overages so even less

Even if fans think this is a good team they cannot keep the players they have on the roster now.

And then the next year is Petey's 10 to 12 mil one year contract.

 

[Canucker]

What I'm saying is that I am unsure if they are even legally allowed to re-sign Horvat/Kuzmenko under the CBA right now given their salary cap allocation for next year. I haven't crunched the numbers and it's a very complicated formula but I'm going to assume they're really close to whatever the limit is because of the raise to Miller and the lack of any big UFA contracts falling off the books. Kuzmenko in particular would probably be a really difficult one to do right now.

Couldn't they just use buyouts to stay compliant if they weren't able to trade out salary?

 

[m9]

Couldn't they just use buyouts to stay compliant if they weren't able to trade out salary?

In the off-season, sure. But there are rules about signing players to extensions in-season which may hold up signing these guys.

 

[Canucker]

In the off-season, sure. But there are rules about signing players to extensions in-season which may hold up signing these guys.

Ahhh...I wasn't aware of that, I just thought they had to become cap compliant prior to the start of the season and that was it...and that they could exceed the cap limit during the offseason by a certain amount, provided they were compliant by the start of the season. Interesting, I'll have to try and brush up on that.

 

[Vector]

What I'm saying is that I am unsure if they are even legally allowed to re-sign Horvat/Kuzmenko under the CBA right now given their salary cap allocation for next year. I haven't crunched the numbers and it's a very complicated formula but I'm going to assume they're really close to whatever the limit is because of the raise to Miller and the lack of any big UFA contracts falling off the books. Kuzmenko in particular would probably be a really difficult one to do right now.

Canucks have 17m in capspace for next season, right now. So they could sign both othem to 9m contracts and still be within the amount they are allowed to exceed.

Vancouver Canucks
UFAs	RFAs	Proj. Cap Space
Bo Horvat	Lane Pederson	17.0m
Andrei Kuzmenko	William Lockwood
Luke Schenn	Ethan Bear	Roster Size
Kyle Burroughs	Travis Dermott	16
Collin Delia	Nils Hoglander
Michael Ferland	Carson Focht
Justin Dowling	Jett Woo
Phil Di Giuseppe	Guillaume Brisebois
John Stevens	Noah Juulsen
Brady Keeper	Wyatt Kalynuk
Chistian Wolanin

 

[4Twenty]

I'm not going to give management a free pass for much (and I hated the Miller signing) but this Horvat year just seems like bad luck as I don't know how you could have seen this year coming. I also don't even know if you get the same version of Horvat this year with a $50 million dollar contract in his back pocket.

I brought this up a couple of months ago and I haven't see it anywhere in media, but I do wonder if there is simply a "tagging" or payroll issue with Horvat's contract that is holding things up and they actually can't sign him. Media is always slow to pick up on these things as the team will keep it under wraps but they have to be really close to that number based on Miller's raise and their lack of cap flexibility. Very similar to the Anaheim/Silfverberg issue from a couple of years ago.

Horvat’s finish to last season was very strong production wise. Not Miller level, but very strong.

I think it made more sense to view him (and his value) at closer to his end of last season (26 going on 27) level as much or even more than 28 going on 29 JT Miller.

It’s why I argued against all the low ball valuations that persisted all summer.

I believe he’s not signed because he wants to leave. I believe he wants to leave because they not only prioritized Miller, but started the offers at less than his current AAV.

 

[credulous]

Canucks have 17m in capspace for next season, right now. So they could sign both othem to 9m contracts and still be within the amount they are allowed to exceed.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Vancouver Canucks[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]UFAs[/TD]
[TD]RFAs[/TD]
[TD]Proj. Cap Space[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bo Horvat[/TD]
[TD]Lane Pederson[/TD]
[TD]17.0m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andrei Kuzmenko[/TD]
[TD]William Lockwood[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Luke Schenn[/TD]
[TD]Ethan Bear[/TD]
[TD]Roster Size[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kyle Burroughs[/TD]
[TD]Travis Dermott[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Collin Delia[/TD]
[TD]Nils Hoglander[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michael Ferland[/TD]
[TD]Carson Focht[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Dowling[/TD]
[TD]Jett Woo[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Phil Di Giuseppe[/TD]
[TD]Guillaume Brisebois[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Stevens[/TD]
[TD]Noah Juulsen[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brady Keeper[/TD]
[TD]Wyatt Kalynuk[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Chistian Wolanin[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

it's a little more complicated than that i think because of ltir. the canucks can't include ferland's expiring contract in their future cap space for tagging purposes but must (i think, could be wrong on this) include poolman's salary. i think that leaves them around 12 mil in 'future cap space' but 2.75 is already committed to miller's extension. horvat could potentially use up all their tagging space alone

 

[sting101]

I dont think Horvat is that much of a baby but i guess we'll find out

 

[m9]

Canucks have 17m in capspace for next season, right now. So they could sign both othem to 9m contracts and still be within the amount they are allowed to exceed.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Vancouver Canucks[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]UFAs[/TD]
[TD]RFAs[/TD]
[TD]Proj. Cap Space[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bo Horvat[/TD]
[TD]Lane Pederson[/TD]
[TD]17.0m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andrei Kuzmenko[/TD]
[TD]William Lockwood[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Luke Schenn[/TD]
[TD]Ethan Bear[/TD]
[TD]Roster Size[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kyle Burroughs[/TD]
[TD]Travis Dermott[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Collin Delia[/TD]
[TD]Nils Hoglander[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michael Ferland[/TD]
[TD]Carson Focht[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Dowling[/TD]
[TD]Jett Woo[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Phil Di Giuseppe[/TD]
[TD]Guillaume Brisebois[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Stevens[/TD]
[TD]Noah Juulsen[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brady Keeper[/TD]
[TD]Wyatt Kalynuk[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Chistian Wolanin[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

It's more complicated than that I believe. It involves qualifying offers and current UFA salaries, etc.

What is Tagging or “Tagged Payroll Room” in the NHL CBA, Article 50.5?: Jakob Silfverberg

Last night, NBC Wednesday Night Hockey discussed the Anaheim Ducks’ re-signing of Jakob Silfverberg. While it appears that Silfverberg has re-signed to a 5-year extension worth $5.25 million per se…

thehattrickherald.com

I don't know, like I said a couple months ago maybe it's nothing. But we'll see.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Horvat’s finish to last season was very strong production wise. Not Miller level, but very strong.

I think it made more sense to view him (and his value) at closer to his end of last season (26 going on 27) level as much or even more than 28 going on 29 JT Miller.

It’s why I argued against all the low ball valuations that persisted all summer.

I believe he’s not signed because he wants to leave. I believe he wants to leave because they not only prioritized Miller, but started the offers at less than his current AAV.

I believe Horvat wants to leave because:

(1) he’s tired of losing and wants to play for a competitive team (he’s said similar things in interviews), which the Canucks are unlikely to become in the next few years during his prime; and

(2) speculation on my behalf, but I don’t think he’s the most popular guy in the locker room (not due to any issues, just personality differences). I think the “cliquey” locker room comments have Horvat and Pearson segregated into one of the groups, and Pearson’s time as a Canuck is ending soon IMO.

 

[sting101]

I think the off season accounting rules apply for contract extensions "tagging" beyond this season which would allow for 10% above the 81.5 million.

@mouser could maybe chime in here he's well versed in the CBA and a lot smarter than me

 

[iceburg]

That’s part of it, and certainly it’s why the Canucks ended up signing him when they did (I.e., the trade market wasn’t good) but the bigger impetus for when that contract was signed is that Miller and his agent, smartly, new they had to capitalize on Miller’s outlier season which was probably unrepeatable so the best case scenario for them was signing before this year. This is why they gave the Canucks an ultimatum in that they said Miller wouldn’t discuss signing once the season started which pressured the Canucks to sign him before the season started. This was a good gamble by Miller as it appears management was never seriously willing to trade him so they caved and signed Miller when his value was the highest.

Ironically, of course, the Canucks took the opposite bargaining position with Horvat which had absolutely destroyed their ability to sign him. Although admittedly, it’s hard to blame management on this since Horvat’s play has been entirely unpredictable.

Yeah, as I said in an earlier post, Miller was in the perfect position to negotiate after his 99 point season.
And maybe this is Horvat’s outlier season, at least in terms of goal scoring.

 

[MS]

Here's my list of shit I said would (majority) have to go away to achieve the optimists belief of us being in the top 13 or so in the league. I projected us to finish 14-19 (lol, i am an idiot)

I prefaced this by saying that people can't reasonably make predictions about their own team because they expect an insane ratio of positive outcomes relative to stagnation/things worsening.



Bolded are the ones you can say hit.

If all of those things had happened we'd be winning the President's Trophy.

Like, literally only (5) happening would have us in the playoffs. If our team save % was at .910 (which is 6th-8th in the NHL, and I think where most of us expected Demko would put us going into the season) we'd have allowed 35 fewer goals through 38 games. Bad goaltending is literally costing us a goal per game relative to expectations.

And that atrocious .882 goaltending is hugely magnifying everything else wrong with this team. I don't think most people are quite grasping just how terrible it's been and how it's basically 80% of the problem right now.

 

[pitseleh]

If all of those things had happened we'd be winning the President's Trophy.

Like, literally only (5) happening would have us in the playoffs. If our team save % was at .910 (which is 6th-8th in the NHL, and I think where most of us expected Demko would put us going into the season) we'd have allowed 35 fewer goals through 38 games. Bad goaltending is literally costing us a goal per game relative to expectations.

And that atrocious .882 goaltending is hugely magnifying everything else wrong with this team. I don't think most people are quite grasping just how terrible it's been and how it's basically 80% of the problem right now.

Yet at even strength the team’s PDO is basically 1, because they’ve been equally the beneficiaries of an unsustainably high SH%. If you normalize the percentages at even strength it doesn’t work out to be much different in terms of goal differential. In either case the team is still 27th in the league in score adjusted xGF%.

Goaltending has definitely hurt on the PK but even bumping that up wouldn’t necessarily have linearly reduced GA, because the opposition would have had more PP time.

 

[m9]

If all of those things had happened we'd be winning the President's Trophy.

Like, literally only (5) happening would have us in the playoffs. If our team save % was at .910 (which is 6th-8th in the NHL, and I think where most of us expected Demko would put us going into the season) we'd have allowed 35 fewer goals through 38 games. Bad goaltending is literally costing us a goal per game relative to expectations.

And that atrocious .882 goaltending is hugely magnifying everything else wrong with this team. I don't think most people are quite grasping just how terrible it's been and how it's basically 80% of the problem right now.

So just completely ignoring how bad the team defense is that is causing those high-danger chances? Just a coincidence that both Demko & Martin have been awful?

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

I dont think Horvat is that much of a baby but i guess we'll find out

I’m not sure what you mean on that, but I’m willing to give Horvat a pass on pretty much anything. He’s been shit on pretty much the entire time he’s been with the Canucks from fans, management and coaching staff.

He’s done more or less everything expected of him, has forced the team to begrudgingly give him things (do you really think he would’ve been made captain, for example, if he wasn’t literally the only bright spot on the Canucks roster at the time? Have we forgotten about how Benning tried to pigeonhole him in as a checking line center?)

But it’s not good enough. He’s had to bear the brunt of these shitty Canucks teams with very little payoff. If he wants to stay and get fat stacks, cool. If he wants to bolt and join a team that is more competitive, cool.

He’s earned the right to do whatever he wants.

 

[Tryforthekingdom]

I think the off season accounting rules apply for contract extensions "tagging" beyond this season which would allow for 10% above the 81.5 million.

@mouser could maybe chime in here he's well versed in the CBA and a lot smarter than me

The 10% cushion only gets added after March 1st. So right now, we just can't exceed next years cap.

 

[Peen]

If all of those things had happened we'd be winning the President's Trophy.

Like, literally only (5) happening would have us in the playoffs. If our team save % was at .910 (which is 6th-8th in the NHL, and I think where most of us expected Demko would put us going into the season) we'd have allowed 35 fewer goals through 38 games. Bad goaltending is literally costing us a goal per game relative to expectations.

And that atrocious .882 goaltending is hugely magnifying everything else wrong with this team. I don't think most people are quite grasping just how terrible it's been and how it's basically 80% of the problem right now.

You keep posting the goalie save percentage thing as if Vancouver has not gotten equally lucky the other way. It has literally evened out. Stop it.

Vancouver is 3rd last in save percentage and 4th in shooting percentage. But 0.001? Seriously?

It’s even worse when you look at expected goals for/against stats because we concede a ton of high danger but do not create as much.

Also, just a really bad strawman to suggest that I said *all* of those things would have to go right when I said that *most* of it would. And that’s not wrong. Most is 5 more things on that list.

 

[BrentSopelsHair]

I dont think Horvat is that much of a baby but i guess we'll find out

wtf does this mean

 

[arttk]

Here's my list of shit I said would (majority) have to go away to achieve the optimists belief of us being in the top 13 or so in the league. I projected us to finish 14-19 (lol, i am an idiot)

I prefaced this by saying that people can't reasonably make predictions about their own team because they expect an insane ratio of positive outcomes relative to stagnation/things worsening.



Bolded are the ones you can say hit.

If we have Vezina level goaltending and above average PK, we would be a solid playoff already.

Some of the stuff you listed are all connected to each other. Like good coaching should lead to better culture/vibes. Better coaching would lead to better PK.

Basically we have below average goaltending this year creating a cascading effect on the vibes and mentality.
Structureless coaching is enabling bad habits and not solving the PK and leaving Hog and Pod essentially clueless.

Agreed with MS that if everything on your list is like “solved”, this would be a cup contender. It’s like good pk, elite pp, 3 scoring lines with elite point production from 3 players and 2 highly functional D paring equals to elite contending team.

 

[Peen]

If we have Vezina level goaltending and above average PK, we would be a solid playoff already.

Some of the stuff you listed are all connected to each other. Like good coaching should lead to better culture/vibes. Better coaching would lead to better PK.

Basically we have below average goaltending this year creating a cascading effect on the vibes and mentality.
Structureless coaching is enabling bad habits and not solving the PK.

Agreed with MS that if everything on your list is like “solved”, this would be a cup contender. It’s like good pk, elite pp, 3 scoring lines with elite point production from 3 players and 2 highly functional D paring equals to elite contending team.

Again, the point of my post was to say that *most* of that would have to go right to be top 13 in the league. That is not wrong.

Perceiving it any other way is strange.

 

[BrentSopelsHair]

I’m not sure what you mean on that, but I’m willing to give Horvat a pass on pretty much anything. He’s been shit on pretty much the entire time he’s been with the Canucks from fans, management and coaching staff.

He’s done more or less everything expected of him, has forced the team to begrudgingly give him things (do you really think he would’ve been made captain, for example, if he wasn’t literally the only bright spot on the Canucks roster at the time? Have we forgotten about how Benning tried to pigeonhole him in as a checking line center?)

But it’s not good enough. He’s had to bear the brunt of these shitty Canucks teams with very little payoff. If he wants to stay and get fat stacks, cool. If he wants to bolt and join a team that is more competitive, cool.

He’s earned the right to do whatever he wants.

100%. There should be absolutely zero complaints with Bo if he leaves after this season. Bo's entire NHL career has been in the midst of one of the most inept franchises in the NHL doing their very best to build bad teams. The Canucks have done almost nothing over the course of his career to instill confidence and loyalty in him. He only has one career and owes nothing to the Canucks at this point. Any animosity over his inevitable departure should be aimed at the franchise

 

[arttk]

Again, the point of my post was to say that *most* of that would have to go right to be top 13 in the league. That is not wrong.

Perceiving it any other way is strange.

Well if you get most we would be like top in the league. I think realistically if we needed this to be a playoff team, having a good coach would solve a) bad defensive system b) PK c) Pod/Hog d) near zero accountability culture and technically just solving the defensive system itself would alleviate somewhat the effects of Demko not being Vezina level.

 

[MS]

You keep posting the goalie save percentage thing as if Vancouver has not gotten equally lucky the other way. It has literally evened out. Stop it.

Vancouver is 3rd last in save percentage and 4th in shooting percentage. But 0.001? Seriously?

It’s even worse when you look at expected goals for/against stats because we concede a ton of high danger but do not create as much.

Also, just a really bad strawman to suggest that I said *all* of those things would have to go right when I said that *most* of it would. And that’s not wrong. Most is 5 more things on that list.

PDO isn't some thing that magically regresses to 1 for all NHL teams over the course of a season and any derivation from that is luck. If you have a team that has 1) A talented group of forwards up front and a quality PP setup and 2) an elite starting goalie, you expect to drive a significantly positive PDO. TB drives a massive PDO basically every year because their goalie stops a higher percentage of shots than the league average and their elite PP and deadly group of forwards means that they're always near the top in terms of team shooting percentage.

Given the group of talented forward this team has and the very good PP, and given the expectation that Demko would be a top-5-ish starter in the NHL, the expectation would be that this team would be somewhere top-10 in the NHL in PDO (as they were last year, and as they were in 19-20 for the same reasons).

They're currently 22nd.