Management Discussion | Just Have a Plan

[theguardianII]

Do any of this current management decisions or statements seem to be familiar?

Rerun to 2014 and start there, almost to exact stuff in every aspect except Rutherford is becoming the voice for the fans, but apparently with as much effect, none.

He says what is popular but that's it.

Now he talks about buying out player(s) which is a poison pill for the team right now but lots of fans keep wanting OEL bought out so that's' what they hear from JR.

The one easiest move that costs less and gains more is retention.

But retention is the only thing not talked about.

Now if the buyout is to do with trading for a bad contract and then buying it out, that is different if it gains the team a top draft pick.

Draft picks do not ALL take 4 or 5 years to make an impact. But if that is the case then this team is doomed anyway because they don't have anything of impact in the prospect pool now. They are quickly losing cap control over Hoglander and Podkolzin.

Trade Miller to Washington or Boston, retain if necessary, for a bag of pucks but that would not happen but the return would not be as big but would be there.

Boeser with retention to Minny for Greenway, rumor has Greenway as in the doghouse. It is taking a chance but Greenway.

All this bullsh*t about a long rebuild, with intelligence and b@lls moving Horvat, Boeser, Garland, Miller, Horvat and Kuzmenko would open up so much of that valued cap space over the next two years with the returns of those trades, there could be a self sustaining pool of draft picks to either draft or use as assets for and enhance trades.

With FOUR GMs and Rutherford all working on doing their jobs it is possible to re-tool or build a playoff team within two years and a cup contender within 4 years when some of the lower draft picks start making an impact.

A rebuild if started now, this season counts as one year in that direction. Ottawa, Buffalo, Montreal even Colorado have re whatevered and had success in less than 5 years so far.

 

[TruGr1t]

Is it just me, or does everyone else expect that our attempt to sell players for the max once again goes like last years Miller sweepstakes, and we fail to trade anyone before the trade deadline, and we sign Horvat to some silly amount based on one season, and have to trade all of our draft picks to get rid of a couple of dead horses to meet the cap.

I think they'll manage to move Garland, possibly Myers if he doesn't block every desirable destination and buy out Pearson if injury permits.

Boeser will be the bigger ask and require sweetener/retention, while I think OEL is at least one year away from buy-out consideration (iMac said as much on the broadcast last night).

Horvat is gone, and I think they'll be hard-pressed to sign Kuzmenko. They are certainly not getting him at term.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

I mean 6 years as an agent, a law degree, and a bachelors in finance seems like a pretty solid skillset to me for someone expected to handle the cap (finance) and contracts (law).

Do you think like spending 6 years beforehand scouting junior prospects in the QMJHL before or something like that would somehow enhance her capability to do her job?

So far she hasn't done a very good job at all, if those are the areas she oversee. On paper she should have all the education and/or experience required, but either she doesn't have a voice (so she is just hired to check off some employment equity boxes, which I find unlikely), or she just isn't very good at her job (which is disappointing because I had high hope for her.)

I really don't see how you need a law degree or finance background to navigate the cap system though. Sure there are some technical stuff, as with LTIR or finer points in contracts. But the things that are tripping up the organization are VERY easy to see and understand. Any one of us spending 5 minutes on Capfriendly can tell you that the contracts to Boeser and JTM will handcuff us big time going forward, and adding to the problems that already exist (OEL, Myers, recapture, etc). And then spend another 30 minutes browsing other team's Capfriendly page will quickly realize that most of the teams are capped out so moving out contract is going to be costly, if not impossible. It really isn't THAT complicated.

 

[Raistlin]

with all of the circus going on the team, I sincerely hope Allvin and JR have sat 40 & 43 down for a talk regarding team direction. INCLUDING hiring of Tocchet and who they consider indispensible in the locker room. If EP wants out, then you need to immediately go into scorched earth mode.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

with all of the circus going on the team, I sincerely hope Allvin and JR have sat 40 & 43 down for a talk regarding team direction. INCLUDING hiring of Tocchet and who they consider indispensible in the locker room. If EP wants out, then you need to immediately go into scorched earth mode.

This is the obvious move and something not all managers do - but the all the good managers do. Doing exit interviews is one thing but for your stars like EP and Hughes (i.e. your revenue-drivers) you should maintain contact throughout the season and offseason as well, take their outlook on where the team is and where it should go seriously.

 

[Raistlin]

This is what they must do if the onus is contention and building a sustainable winner.

But it can be soundly argued that an old school top down approach is implemented where the employee does what management wants and management/ownership is putting the onus only on next year's playoff revenue. In that case, what's the point of filling the franchise player in??? Might as well be another mercenary chasing the next contract elsewhere.

During the beginning of pandemic, the players were completely kept in the dark. Now, I really hope this is where the Granatos and Castonguay's come in and make a loud and salient point that if communication channels are not established, EP will for sure not buy in, and whatever plan they try to execute for the next 8 years is moot and has to be redrawn.

 

[Raistlin]

This is what they must do if the onus is contention and building a sustainable winner.

But it can be soundly argued that an old school top down approach is implemented where the employee does what management wants and management/ownership is putting the onus only on next year's playoff revenue. In that case, what's the point of filling the franchise player in??? Might as well be another mercenary chasing the next contract elsewhere.

During the beginning of pandemic, the players were completely kept in the dark. Now, I really hope this is where the Granatos and Castonguay's come in and make a loud and salient point that if communication channels are not established, EP will for sure not buy in, and whatever plan they try to execute for the next 8 years is moot and has to be redrawn.

In my opinion, keeping Demko is a retool move, if there is a hint that EP wants to pursue greener pastures, Demko has to be sold in case he regains form and stands in the way of a rebuild.

 

[M2Beezy]

I made a poll in the main section and the Canucks are DOMINATING

Which organization is in the worst shape

Both short term and long term. When you combine all factors, which team is in the worst spot and its future is hopeless too?

forums.hfboards.com

 

[rypper]

I made a poll in the main section and the Canucks are DOMINATING

Which organization is in the worst shape

Both short term and long term. When you combine all factors, which team is in the worst spot and its future is hopeless too?

forums.hfboards.com

First the season opener cap space Olympics, now this poll, man everything's coming up milhouse lately for this team.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

I made a poll in the main section and the Canucks are DOMINATING

Which organization is in the worst shape

Both short term and long term. When you combine all factors, which team is in the worst spot and its future is hopeless too?

forums.hfboards.com

Honestly, I think Vancouver has the largest amount of sadness but Arizona has been on life support for a decade and a half and is in a WHL-level barn right now because they couldn't make rent. The answer is Arizona, but all it takes is a new owner and a move and it's Vancouver.

 

[credulous]

arizona is the worst all things considered but if you ignore the business side vancouver, san jose and philly are all in a different league

 

[rypper]

Arizona isn't really trying though. They are what they are, the bad contract laundromat for the league.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

I hate our ownership and we seem pretty directionless right now but I would rather be us than Arizona, Philly, San Jose, or Calgary.

 

[gringo]

Arizona isn't really trying though. They are what they are, the bad contract laundromat for the league.

Gary can’t lose. Once a new commissioner is in place I bet Arizona closes shop.

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

Arizona isn't really trying though. They are what they are, the bad contract laundromat for the league.

Like the league cleans its dirty street money through the Coyotes.

 

[Nucker101]

I hate our ownership and we seem pretty directionless right now but I would rather be us than Arizona, Philly, San Jose, or Calgary.

Is Philly ownership anti-rebuild? If so then I agree with your list.

 

[canucksfan]

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

Is Philly ownership anti-rebuild? If so then I agree with your list.

Philly is OG no rebuild club.

 

[Peen]

Is Philly ownership anti-rebuild? If so then I agree with your list.

Arizona would be fun.

They will get the arena one they want at some point, and it’s a clean slate canvas for someone.

SJ is apparently committed to trading Karlsson and embracing a full tank. Feel like the view on that franchise might be completely different seven months from now. The five year immediate future might be bleak but that longer term future is brighter.

My list is Philadelphia, Calgary, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Columbus.

 

[Toss it to Tanti]

So far she hasn't done a very good job at all, if those are the areas she oversee. On paper she should have all the education and/or experience required, but either she doesn't have a voice (so she is just hired to check off some employment equity boxes, which I find unlikely), or she just isn't very good at her job (which is disappointing because I had high hope for her.)

I really don't see how you need a law degree or finance background to navigate the cap system though. Sure there are some technical stuff, as with LTIR or finer points in contracts. But the things that are tripping up the organization are VERY easy to see and understand. Any one of us spending 5 minutes on Capfriendly can tell you that the contracts to Boeser and JTM will handcuff us big time going forward, and adding to the problems that already exist (OEL, Myers, recapture, etc). And then spend another 30 minutes browsing other team's Capfriendly page will quickly realize that most of the teams are capped out so moving out contract is going to be costly, if not impossible. It really isn't THAT complicated.

What is it that you think she hasn’t done a good job with?

Her job is to maximize the salary cap and look for comparables across the league to set a range for contract negotiations. She has very little say on personnel; that would be on Clancy/Granato/Allvin/JR (Pro/Am Scouts).

They would go to Emilie and say, we want this player (or want to retain this player) find me some comps, and set a range.

The contracts that have been signed by this management group are as such:

JT Miller - Been well established that JR/Allvin didn’t want to go into this season with Bo & JT unsigned. JTs contract is actually semi buy-out friendly seeing as it’s not a signing bonus heavy contract. That would be something that Emilie would have created. The fact that she had to make a contract which was fair value, to retain a player that JR/Allvin/FAQ told her to retain shouldn’t be looked up negatively upon her.

Boeser - No leverage for negotiation based off his terrible QO last offseason. Again, she was told to find a contract that Boeser would sign, because Boeser fit JR/Allvin/FAQs no-plan plan. We can’t blame Emilie for this contract either.

Mikheyev - contract was fair value, and he’s out-performed it based off Dom’s Athletic Cards. Was also used to help finalize Kuzmenko signing here. Not that she had any barring on. Again, if you don’t like the player, blame pro-scouting.

Horvat Negotiations - give credit where credit is due, they offered him around Nuge money, let’s call it 5.75 million (accounting for a slight raise on his current deal of 5.5 million). Which is a great comparable for a “hometown discount” that they were hoping he’d take. He said, I’ll play out the season and bet on myself, and he is going to earn himself a $8.5 million dollar deal over 7 years from someone. It was at that point that they turned back on JT and got a deal done. Let’s not forget that last year Bo put up 52 in 70, and JT put up 99 in 80. Giving JT a higher offer than Bo got was extremely warranted. How easily we forget how bad Bo played for the first 40 games last year.

The thing that shows me the work Emilie put in was the constant shuffling (particularly earlier in the year, when we had hope) of contracts to maximize LTIR space, and give us the best chance to succeed there. Also, the fact that we were one of a handful of teams in NHL history to enter the season with exactly $0.00 in cap space shows the efficiency of contract movement that makes up 90% of her job.

You saying she’s doing a bad job because you don’t like some of the contracts signed above is essentially yelling at the person making your coffee at Starbucks cause you think it’s too expensive.

 

[credulous]

JT Miller - Been well established that JR/Allvin didn’t want to go into this season with Bo & JT unsigned. JTs contract is actually semi buy-out friendly seeing as it’s not a signing bonus heavy contract. That would be something that Emilie would have created. The fact that she had to make a contract which was fair value, to retain a player that JR/Allvin/FAQ told her to retain shouldn’t be looked up negatively upon her.

this is wrong. the only year it's "friendly" to buy out miller is the last year where you can save 4.7 mil and only pay a 2.3 mil penalty the subsequent year. it's one of the least buyout friendly contracts in the entire league

 

[sandwichbird2023]

What is it that you think she hasn’t done a good job with?

Her job is to maximize the salary cap and look for comparables across the league to set a range for contract negotiations. She has very little say on personnel; that would be on Clancy/Granato/Allvin/JR (Pro/Am Scouts).

They would go to Emilie and say, we want this player (or want to retain this player) find me some comps, and set a range.

The contracts that have been signed by this management group are as such:

JT Miller - Been well established that JR/Allvin didn’t want to go into this season with Bo & JT unsigned. JTs contract is actually semi buy-out friendly seeing as it’s not a signing bonus heavy contract. That would be something that Emilie would have created. The fact that she had to make a contract which was fair value, to retain a player that JR/Allvin/FAQ told her to retain shouldn’t be looked up negatively upon her.

Boeser - No leverage for negotiation based off his terrible QO last offseason. Again, she was told to find a contract that Boeser would sign, because Boeser fit JR/Allvin/FAQs no-plan plan. We can’t blame Emilie for this contract either.

Mikheyev - contract was fair value, and he’s out-performed it based off Dom’s Athletic Cards. Was also used to help finalize Kuzmenko signing here. Not that she had any barring on. Again, if you don’t like the player, blame pro-scouting.

Horvat Negotiations - give credit where credit is due, they offered him around Nuge money, let’s call it 5.75 million (accounting for a slight raise on his current deal of 5.5 million). Which is a great comparable for a “hometown discount” that they were hoping he’d take. He said, I’ll play out the season and bet on myself, and he is going to earn himself a $8.5 million dollar deal over 7 years from someone. It was at that point that they turned back on JT and got a deal done. Let’s not forget that last year Bo put up 52 in 70, and JT put up 99 in 80. Giving JT a higher offer than Bo got was extremely warranted. How easily we forget how bad Bo played for the first 40 games last year.

The thing that shows me the work Emilie put in was the constant shuffling (particularly earlier in the year, when we had hope) of contracts to maximize LTIR space, and give us the best chance to succeed there. Also, the fact that we were one of a handful of teams in NHL history to enter the season with exactly $0.00 in cap space shows the efficiency of contract movement that makes up 90% of her job.

You saying she’s doing a bad job because you don’t like some of the contracts signed above is essentially yelling at the person making your coffee at Starbucks cause you think it’s too expensive.

I don't know the exact job description, but let say you are correct and her job is to find comparables. What comparables did she use for Boeser? A one dimensional soft winger coming off 2 disappointing seasons, with injury history, and has no leverage as a RFA. How did that turned into a 3 years $6.6 per extension?
JTM is more understandable given his offensive output, but isn't it her job to recommend against signing a long term contract with a soon-to-be 30 years old moody forward in a flat cap world?
Giving Bo the Nuge extension might make sense to some, but clearly Horvat took it as an insult. Asking somebody who is scoring at an accelerated rate to take a pay cut is generally not going to be well received. I wonder if there are any other comparables used with that contract, because off the top of my head, RNH is the only such contract signed recently.
Signing all those contracts in the summer then having to spend a 2nd to ditch Dickinson seems like a lack of foresight to me but I'm sure some can explain it away. It's looking like a high 2nd pick, could come back and bite us big time.

I don't know the inner workings so I'll admit I could be wrong, if her job is such that management comes to her and say "I want Boeser and JTM signed to term at any cost, but lowball Horvat for me" then sure she is doing ok within that parameter. I would hope the capologisy has some say on long term planning though.

 

[I in the Eye]

It's tough not having to overpay on $ and term when you're a shitty team with shitty management and a shitty owner. If someone wants to take some sort of hometown discount or fair market value to stay here, there's something wrong with him. He's either in love, or has some kind of other mental deficit. If the order is, "get Miller signed", then we get what we got... If the order is "get Miller and Horvat signed", we're f***ed.

 

[rypper]

Asking somebody who is scoring at an accelerated rate to take a pay cut is generally not going to be well received.

The offer was made prior to the season.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

I don't know the exact job description, but let say you are correct and her job is to find comparables. What comparables did she use for Boeser? A one dimensional soft winger coming off 2 disappointing seasons, with injury history, and has no leverage as a RFA. How did that turned into a 3 years $6.6 per extension?

His QO was like $7 or 7.5MM. So that was a Benning special. He signed for under that which was a small win in negotiation but the more prudent move was a trade.