Tied with Callum Ritchie for the scoring lead among 05 born skaters. 12 goals, 19 assists, 31 pts in 42 games.
Agreed on that. Look at Josh Anderson for example. Lots of demand for him. He is a better skater than Musty but Musty's other tools are likely better.He was catching a lot of criticism for his play at the Hlinka. I thought it was mostly undeserved.
That team comes together so quickly and they've almost entirely never played hockey together. He tried to play hero a few too many times, but you see the skill and size. He was one of the best players on that American team.
While his skating acceleration isn't the best, I think his skating for his size is about average. He's also a powerful skater that has some speed when he gets going and he's usually moving his feet, so his skating probably plays better than the raw tool grade you could give it. Teams are going to draft him higher than fans will.
I think he goes first round. It might end up being latter half of the first as opposed to first half of the first, but a power forward with skill, some physicality, and good enough skating is always going to go higher than people think.
There certainly wasn't much on the Hlinka team.Best American player in this draft? I think he might be. Not sure I liked anyone on the program better than him this year. We will see.
Agreed, I think he got a lot of underserved bashing from people looking for a scapegoat, and it does seem if you’re a bigger prospect, a lot of new age fans instantly dislike you as big=Dumb and lacking skill in a lot of peoples eyes, which is flat out wrong. He does need to make some better decisions when under pressure, but scouting is all about long term projection and his tools project very nicely to the next level imo. At his size and ability to make plays, shoot the puck and beat goaltenders from distance is impressive. I still think other than Stramel, Musty as of now is the top American prospect for the draft. We’ll see how he progresses this year in Sudbury, but I can almost guarantee scouts weren’t getting hung up on a few bad plays at the blue line or the odd selfish play by Musty, they see what tools he has and it gets them excited to track him throughout the year. To me he’s in that group of players like Barlow, Ritchie, Rehkopf, Haltunnen, Carlsson, Wood, all bigger boys with tantalizing tools and various skill sets that teams all covet. He’s all about upside and where he can be in 4-5 years. For example a kid like Whitelaw, whose also a good prospect in his own right, may look flashier and jump off the page a lot easier in a short tournament like this, doesn’t have the same potential runway a prospect like Musty has. To me Whitelaw is sort of what you see, what you get. He’s already highly skilled and can rip the puck, he’s likely not going to grow much more than he is now as he has a thicker frame for a shorter kid, so it’s a lot easier to sort of see what he’ll be in 4-5 years. Is he a Caufield level player? Not likely at all imo, projects more so like a Conor Garland or at the least, a Rocco Grimaldi type. Sorry for the ramble…He was catching a lot of criticism for his play at the Hlinka. I thought it was mostly undeserved.
That team comes together so quickly and they've almost entirely never played hockey together. He tried to play hero a few too many times, but you see the skill and size. He was one of the best players on that American team.
While his skating acceleration isn't the best, I think his skating for his size is about average. He's also a powerful skater that has some speed when he gets going and he's usually moving his feet, so his skating probably plays better than the raw tool grade you could give it. Teams are going to draft him higher than fans will.
I think he goes first round. It might end up being latter half of the first as opposed to first half of the first, but a power forward with skill, some physicality, and good enough skating is always going to go higher than people think.
For sure, out of Smith, Perrault, Moore, Leonard, I think their good prospects in their own right and perhaps a couple go in the first as well; albeit likely second half of the first as well. Not a year where the NTDP is stacked with can’t miss prospects. I don’t think there is a D on that team I’d consider as an A rated player today. Musty for me is still the best 05 American prospect for this draft where it stands today, with late 04’s like Stramel, Brzustewicz, Brindley being potential first rounder as well. I see Stramel as a 10-18 sort of kid, Brzustewicz brindley as mid to late first round prospects.Best American player in this draft? I think he might be. Not sure I like anyone on the program better than him this year. We will see.
What about Stramel?Best American player in this draft? I think he might be. Not sure I like anyone on the program better than him this year. We will see.
Yeah he probably is the favorite, I suppose you're right. I happen to like Musty quite a bit though.What about Stramel?
I think the consensus, which may not be right, is that he's the best American and maybe with a large gap.
I also have Musty a lot higher than Whitelaw. I may prefer Whitelaw to Musty on a junior team, but when Reid Schaefer goes two rounds ahead of Jordan Dumais, we see what NHL teams are looking for. Musty is what they like. I'd probably say his range is 16-26. I put him at 8 on my first 2023 list from 5 weeks ago. I think after watching him for four games at this tournament thats not outrageously high, but probably about 10 spots too high. 18 seems more accurate. He's a good prospect and I completely agree with you that he's competing with a bunch of guys for second best American in this draft.Agreed, I think he got a lot of underserved bashing from people looking for a scapegoat, and it does seem if you’re a bigger prospect, a lot of new age fans instantly dislike you as big=Dumb and lacking skill in a lot of peoples eyes, which is flat out wrong. He does need to make some better decisions when under pressure, but scouting is all about long term projection and his tools project very nicely to the next level imo. At his size and ability to make plays, shoot the puck and beat goaltenders from distance is impressive. I still think other than Stramel, Musty as of now is the top American prospect for the draft. We’ll see how he progresses this year in Sudbury, but I can almost guarantee scouts weren’t getting hung up on a few bad plays at the blue line or the odd selfish play by Musty, they see what tools he has and it gets them excited to track him throughout the year. To me he’s in that group of players like Barlow, Ritchie, Rehkopf, Haltunnen, Carlsson, Wood, all bigger boys with tantalizing tools and various skill sets that teams all covet. He’s all about upside and where he can be in 4-5 years. For example a kid like Whitelaw, whose also a good prospect in his own right, may look flashier and jump off the page a lot easier in a short tournament like this, doesn’t have the same potential runway a prospect like Musty has. To me Whitelaw is sort of what you see, what you get. He’s already highly skilled and can rip the puck, he’s likely not going to grow much more than he is now as he has a thicker frame for a shorter kid, so it’s a lot easier to sort of see what he’ll be in 4-5 years. Is he a Caufield level player? Not likely at all imo, projects more so like a Conor Garland or at the least, a Rocco Grimaldi type. Sorry for the ramble…
As for second best American, assuming that Stramel stays at 1 which its possible he might not, the main guys I'd be considering right now are Smith, Leonard, Shaugabay, McCarthy, Brzustewicz and Brindley.For sure, out of Smith, Perrault, Moore, Leonard, I think their good prospects in their own right and perhaps a couple go in the first as well; albeit likely second half of the first as well. Not a year where the NTDP is stacked with can’t miss prospects. I don’t think there is a D on that team I’d consider as an A rated player today. Musty for me is still the best 05 American prospect for this draft where it stands today, with late 04’s like Stramel, Brzustewicz, Brindley being potential first rounder as well. I see Stramel as a 10-18 sort of kid, Brzustewicz brindley as mid to late first round prospects.
I’d say as it stands today, Stramel is definitely the top American availableWhat about Stramel?
I think the consensus, which may not be right, is that he's the best American and maybe with a large gap.
Really good post and I agree with most of it for sure. I don’t think there’s a large gap either between those two tiers, a lot of it will depend on their progression this season. It’s true, someone may prefer a more flashy player like Whitelaw on a junior team where he likely produces big numbers, but does it translate easily? I still think to be an undersized player that is counted upon in a top 6 or 9 role, you need to be elite like Caufield or Brayden Point. I do think size isn’t as important as it was 10-15 years ago, but it still matters quite a bit. I agree with Shaugabay, clearly a skilled and smart player, but with limited views for most people at the moment, it’s difficult to really rank him at the moment, a real wildcard. Would like to see him in the ushl a bit more to get a better gauge for his overall talent package, but I do like what I’ve seen from him in limited views. As for your comment on Smith, I guess for me it goes that if you are fairly confident he’ll be an everyday NHL’er, how many guys in this draft do you also see having that upside with a solid chance of reaching that potential? As good as this draft looks like today, I still think it’s tough to truly find 30 plus players who can be worthy of that tag. If he’s solidly in that group, I’d say he’s a 20-32 level prospect, maybe a tad higher. Agreed on Moore, I think his upside isn’t as high as a lot of kids and it again comes down to whether you think he can become a staple as a third line guy, that kills penalties. Not to compare their style of play, but someone lik JT compher, while never going to be a high producer or top 6 F on a contender, is a valuable piece to any good team. I think Moore could down the road be a guy in a role similar to that. It’ll be interesting to see Brzustewicz in Kitchener this year and playing in the same division as Cam Allen. He sees the ice well and can move the puck, good enough skater, but I agree his overall upside may not be anything more than a 4-6 at the NHL level.As for second best American, assuming that Stramel stays at 1 which its possible he might not, the main guys I'd be considering right now are Smith, Leonard, Shaugabay, McCarthy, Brzustewicz and Brindley.
Tier 1: Stramel
Tier 2 (in no order): Smith, Leonard, Shaugabay, McCarthy, Musty
Tier 3: Brzustewicz, Brindley
At this point, I find the gap between tier 1 and 2 to be greater than the gap between 2 and 3. 2 and 3 is pretty interchangeable. I could see how Brzustewicz and Brindley are ranked higher than the ones in tier two, but I think the tier 2 guys have higher draft upside. Brzustewicz and Brindley are the same draft profile. Real solid players, but undersized to an extent and not huge upside guys.
All those tier 2 guys have obstacles. Not impossible that they could join Stramel in tier 1, but as of now I'd say no. Smith is really solid. I'm just not sure I think he's great. I think he lacks that great upside, even if I think he ends up a good NHL'er. Maybe I'm undervaluing what thats worth. Leonard has flashy puck skills and skating, but needs to improve his playmaking and sense to be a real top 20 threat. Shaugabay is the real dark horse. Most of us haven't seen that much of him. Really dynamic offensive player. For a player like him, the questions are going to be compete level and size. Those areas might check out, but a question for now. And flat out exposure. How much is it worth to destroy Minnesota High School Competition? McCarthy is a player whose upside I like, but he didn't have the greatest Hlinka. I thought he was better with Muskegon last season , but needs to continue working on skating/positioning. Not a great defenseman draft. He could compete for best or at least top few. Musty maybe doesn't have huge upside, but big power forward with skill and good enough skating always go higher than people think. His draft floor is pretty high.
I suspect Moore is going to get some discussion for that, but as of now I just don't see it. Don't see the upside, but he's the type of grit/intangibles player that NHL teams like more than me. Also, I could see a case that Augustine is the second best American player in the draft, but it's just hard to believe that a goalie is going to be the second highest drafted American. If that happens, either Augustine has taken a huge leap or the American crop is terrible.
My real wild card is Will McDonough. I wouldn't put him in any of those three tiers, but he's a real power forward in the truest sense, not just a big player with offense. He will hit and he gets involved in scrums. He just needs to put it all together for a really good season and maybe slightly improve his skating. I guess theoretically Sawchyn is another huge wild card based on his talent.
Another question for you if you would -As for second best American, assuming that Stramel stays at 1 which its possible he might not, the main guys I'd be considering right now are Smith, Leonard, Shaugabay, McCarthy, Brzustewicz and Brindley.
Tier 1: Stramel
Tier 2 (in no order): Smith, Leonard, Shaugabay, McCarthy, Musty
Tier 3: Brzustewicz, Brindley
At this point, I find the gap between tier 1 and 2 to be greater than the gap between 2 and 3. 2 and 3 is pretty interchangeable. I could see how Brzustewicz and Brindley are ranked higher than the ones in tier two, but I think the tier 2 guys have higher draft upside. Brzustewicz and Brindley are the same draft profile. Real solid players, but undersized to an extent and not huge upside guys.
All those tier 2 guys have obstacles. Not impossible that they could join Stramel in tier 1, but as of now I'd say no. Smith is really solid. I'm just not sure I think he's great. I think he lacks that great upside, even if I think he ends up a good NHL'er. Maybe I'm undervaluing what thats worth. Leonard has flashy puck skills and skating, but needs to improve his playmaking and sense to be a real top 20 threat. Shaugabay is the real dark horse. Most of us haven't seen that much of him. Really dynamic offensive player. For a player like him, the questions are going to be compete level and size. Those areas might check out, but a question for now. And flat out exposure. How much is it worth to destroy Minnesota High School Competition? McCarthy is a player whose upside I like, but he didn't have the greatest Hlinka. I thought he was better with Muskegon last season , but needs to continue working on skating/positioning. Not a great defenseman draft. He could compete for best or at least top few. Musty maybe doesn't have huge upside, but big power forward with skill and good enough skating always go higher than people think. His draft floor is pretty high.
I suspect Moore is going to get some discussion for that, but as of now I just don't see it. Don't see the upside, but he's the type of grit/intangibles player that NHL teams like more than me. Also, I could see a case that Augustine is the second best American player in the draft, but it's just hard to believe that a goalie is going to be the second highest drafted American. If that happens, either Augustine has taken a huge leap or the American crop is terrible.
My real wild card is Will McDonough. I wouldn't put him in any of those three tiers, but he's a real power forward in the truest sense, not just a big player with offense. He will hit and he gets involved in scrums. He just needs to put it all together for a really good season and maybe slightly improve his skating. I guess theoretically Sawchyn is another huge wild card based on his talent.
I had Smith 21 on my first list. I like his game too. I feel like he's Josh Norris as a draft prospect. Norris went 19th. Now obviously, Josh Norris has become a very good NHL player. But Norris has pretty much hit his best possible outcome when he was a draft prospect. Most of these players do not. If Smith does, he's probably Josh Norris. If he doesn't, he's like a lesser version of Josh Norris. I think thats a good NHL'er. Is it a 2nd liner, good third liner? It's dependent on the next five years for him, but I think he's a valuable NHL'er.Really good post and I agree with most of it for sure. I don’t think there’s a large gap either between those two tiers, a lot of it will depend on their progression this season. It’s true, someone may prefer a more flashy player like Whitelaw on a junior team where he likely produces big numbers, but does it translate easily? I still think to be an undersized player that is counted upon in a top 6 or 9 role, you need to be elite like Caufield or Brayden Point. I do think size isn’t as important as it was 10-15 years ago, but it still matters quite a bit. I agree with Shaugabay, clearly a skilled and smart player, but with limited views for most people at the moment, it’s difficult to really rank him at the moment, a real wildcard. Would like to see him in the ushl a bit more to get a better gauge for his overall talent package, but I do like what I’ve seen from him in limited views. As for your comment on Smith, I guess for me it goes that if you are fairly confident he’ll be an everyday NHL’er, how many guys in this draft do you also see having that upside with a solid chance of reaching that potential? As good as this draft looks like today, I still think it’s tough to truly find 30 plus players who can be worthy of that tag. If he’s solidly in that group, I’d say he’s a 20-32 level prospect, maybe a tad higher. Agreed on Moore, I think his upside isn’t as high as a lot of kids and it again comes down to whether you think he can become a staple as a third line guy, that kills penalties. Not to compare their style of play, but someone lik JT compher, while never going to be a high producer or top 6 F on a contender, is a valuable piece to any good team. I think Moore could down the road be a guy in a role similar to that. It’ll be interesting to see Brzustewicz in Kitchener this year and playing in the same division as Cam Allen. He sees the ice well and can move the puck, good enough skater, but I agree his overall upside may not be anything more than a 4-6 at the NHL level.
A little lower.Another question for you if you would -
How do you feel on Danny Nelson? Saw you made the thread on him but he really intrigues me... Big kid with a seemingly versatile game having success at both forward and defense. Could you see him rising to the 1st round?
I will be floored if Musty isn't a top 10 pick on draft day.
Kid just has too many skills to pass on. Players like him are coveted and I imagine he lights up the O this year.
Stramel is the top US player. I can't see anyone unseating him even Musty..
Stramel is top 5 for me.
Musty inside top 10.
More effective game? - sure.I'd be floored if he was one. He'd need to iron out a lot in his game and a lot of players projected ahead of him would need to disappoint.
There's too many players in this draft with more talent than him and already play a way more effective game.
More effective game? - sure.
More talent? - I wouldn't say there are too many with the skillset (and size) Musty has even in this loaded class. His potential is sky high, you can see that in his flashes of brilliance. He needs to play a more consistent and well-rounded game though if he wants to rise
Good analysis - I agree with most of your points here, including the guys you listed with more talent. I'd also add Dvorksy and a few other guys could even be argued. With that said, I think if Musty can improve that decision making throughout the season and continue to show the flashes of brilliance he has in the past at a more consistent rate, he could absolutely rise into the top 10 past guys like Benson, Wood and others. In no way would I say I expect Musty to rise to top ten status, but I also wouldn't be shocked if it happened come the end of the season.My main issue is his decision making and IQ. It'll be interesting to follow him but my early impressions are Drouin-esque. A guy that looks enticing with tools but when it comes to actually applying them in a meaningful way, I don't know if I see it.
They are generally traps because the skill entices you but you have to ask yourself what does all that skill add up to on the ice and how productive was it. I found a lot of plays he did that the fan in me liked and then the end result really wasn't anything.
But I'd say in terms of talent.. as skilled as he is, I'd still say there's more talent in Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Carlsson, Yager, Benson, Sale, Ritchie and Wood. That's excluding defenseman like Allen. I'm not even sure if he's more skilled than Stenberg at this point and Stenberg was able to actually make plays that did something.
I'm actually not sure if Musty is more talented than Whitelaw but he was more competitive and the frame helps so I know Musty is going to get drafted well ahead of Whitelaw.
Good analysis - I agree with most of your points here, including the guys you listed with more talent. I'd also add Dvorksy and a few other guys could even be argued. With that said, I think if Musty can improve that decision making throughout the season and continue to show the flashes of brilliance he has in the past at a more consistent rate, he could absolutely rise into the top 10 past guys like Benson, Wood and others. In no way would I say I expect Musty to rise to top ten status, but I also wouldn't be shocked if it happened come the end of the season.