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LW Paul Bittner - Portland Winterhawks, WHL (2015, 38th, CBJ)

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I was starting to fade him based on online viewings, but caught him live the other night. He was coming off a couple of good games and was very solid when I caught him in action. Skating has improved immensely and he was very involved physically, something I had noted as being not up to snuff so far this year. Made some nice plays with the puck and man, he can really shoot the biscuit.

Coming into the year I had high expectations, considering him to be a top 12-15 candidate. I had started to fade him a bit, but his viewing the other night has re-enforced to me that he has all the tools to be in the top 20 on many boards.

He's still in my mix for top 4 WHL guys alongside Harkins, Merkley and Barzal. What's the exact order of those 4? Hard to say. It's ever evolving for me.
 
R S said:
I was starting to fade him based on online viewings, but caught him live the other night. He was coming off a couple of good games and was very solid when I caught him in action. Skating has improved immensely and he was very involved physically, something I had noted as being not up to snuff so far this year. Made some nice plays with the puck and man, he can really shoot the biscuit.

Coming into the year I had high expectations, considering him to be a top 12-15 candidate. I had started to fade him a bit, but his viewing the other night has re-enforced to me that he has all the tools to be in the top 20 on many boards.

He's still in my mix for top 4 WHL guys alongside Harkins, Merkley and Barzal. What's the exact order of those 4? Hard to say. It's ever evolving for me.
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He definitely looks like Jeff Carter in flashes, but it is in flashes.
 
R S said:
I was starting to fade him based on online viewings, but caught him live the other night. He was coming off a couple of good games and was very solid when I caught him in action. Skating has improved immensely and he was very involved physically, something I had noted as being not up to snuff so far this year. Made some nice plays with the puck and man, he can really shoot the biscuit.

Coming into the year I had high expectations, considering him to be a top 12-15 candidate. I had started to fade him a bit, but his viewing the other night has re-enforced to me that he has all the tools to be in the top 20 on many boards.

He's still in my mix for top 4 WHL guys alongside Harkins, Merkley and Barzal. What's the exact order of those 4? Hard to say. It's ever evolving for me.
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He looks to me like a low-upside 3rd line type. Skates well for his size and can blast the puck, but limited hockey sense in the offensive end of the rink and lacks higher-end offensive skills. Maybe has Bryan Bickell upside.

Wouldn't have him anywhere near the top few WHL guys and wouldn't be a guy I'd look at before the mid 2nd round.
 
Released a piece today that breaks down the hot start of Nick Merkley and the cold one of Paul Bittner.

An NHL Draft year can be a whirlwind thing for a player. Like with any other season in their hockey career, it’s filled with peaks and valleys. But it’s not exactly just “any other season”. Ask the player’s involved in this situation. It’s usually considered the biggest year of their career so far, something they’ve worked towards their entire hockey life. Things don’t get any easier for them when you consider the added pressure from media, asking them about “the big day next June”. They know scouts are watching them at each and every game. Even the words and images they spit out on Twitter or Instagram get analyzed.

It can be a big deal.

If I could offer any piece of advice for these player’s it would be to not worry too much about those peaks and valleys. Don’t get too high, don’t get too low. Be smart. Stick to your game and play to your strengths. Scouts and evaluators will find you and if you’re lucky, you’ll get your name called at the draft. Also know that the draft isn’t the be-all and end-all of your hockey career. It’s merely a stepping stone, albeit a nice one to strive for.

Things like this need to be remembered when analyzing the player’s available at the NHL Draft. Some players have bigger peaks and valleys than others. Some have hot starts. Some have slow starts. Some of these bumps in the road are team-related while others can simply be chalked up to bad luck or a lack of bounces on an individual level.

While it's important to remember that it's a marathon and not a sprint, these ups and downs are already apparent for a few of the big name 2015 NHL Draft prospects in the Western Hockey League.

Kelowna Rockets forward Nick Merkley has started as hot as anyone out west, almost as hot as anyone CHL-wide for that matter. His 25 points in 14 games are second best in the WHL to only Cole Ully of the Kamloops Blazers. His 21 assists lead the pack out west while his points-per-game mark of 1.79 does the same. While his team is considered by many to be the best one in the country, it’s clear that he’s a driving force behind parts of their success. He's picked up either a goal or an assist on over 34% of the Kelowna Rockets scoring plays this season. He also leads the WHL in powerplay assists with 12 in 14 games, a unit that’s currently leading the league with a success rate of just under 32%. He’s an energetic player, a silky yet powerful skater with elite-level hands and vision. He simply makes the player’s around him better. While some think his size (he’s listed at 5’10.5 and 187 pounds) will hold him back, you can bet he’s hoping this hot start and his relentless attacking style can help eliminate many of those concerns.

While everything has clicked early for Merkley and his Rockets, the same can’t really be said for Paul Bittner and his Portland Winterhawks.

Portland has stumbled out of the gate so far in 2014-15, currently sitting last in the US Division with a record of 5-10-0-2 through 17 games. Just as with the team, many of the club’s players aren’t posting the numbers fans have grown accustomed to seeing during their stretch of winning four consecutive conference titles. Paul Bittner is in that category. The 6’4 winger has put up only 9 points in his 15 games this year, including a very slow start of 3 goals and no assists in his first 9. He's only "contributed" to under 18% of the Winterhawks goals, basically half the number that Merkley has for Kelowna. While it’s obviously still very early in the season, his points-per-game numbers haven’t taken that next step that people hope to see from a player in the biggest year of his career so far. In his first two seasons Bittner went from .51 PPG to .77 PPG. Based on that progression one would expect Bittner should be able to elevate to near point-per-game levels in what is now his 3rd WHL season, regardless of strategic and stylistic changes under new head coach Jamie Kompon. He’s currently producing at a .60 PPG level. While Merkley is top two in the WHL in scoring, Bittner isn’t in the top 100.

But let’s not get too carried away. Peaks and valleys, and all of that stuff, right? And when it comes down to it at its most basic level, Bittner is still a projectable draft prospect. While his physical play is fairly inconsistent in my opinion, he’s got the tools to end up as a high draft pick. He’s a strong skater for a lanky kid who is as tall as he is. He shoots the puck hard, he thinks his way around the ice, he has displayed nice amounts of versatility in his game over the years and comes from a proven program in Portland. As most people can tell you, offensive production is only a part of the equation that needs to be weighed here.

So, how can a hot or slow start change a player’s value for the draft? That will be an interesting thing to watch as the year goes on and it appears we have two decent test subjects already in Merkley and Bittner.

Scouts are all about progression. They want to see each player at designated points of the year, using the linear timeline as a grading tool. Which parts of the player’s game have gotten better since I watched him last? Which areas of his development have stagnated? Why have these changes happened? And arguably most importantly, will these positive or negative changes in their game continue based on all the things I know about this player? It’s a constant game of arranging and re-arranging lists as the year goes on, analyzing data and ultimately watching as much hockey as possible to get a wide scope of the big picture.
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The rest: http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/2014/10/the-art-of-start.html
 
He's got a great shot, I think things will pick up soon and he'll be scoring in bunches.
 
The size and tools are there...just a matter of him putting it altogether...he is rising back up and has put up some big numbers the past two months and looks to finally be healthy and over his early season slump...could crack top 20 if he keeps it up
 
Watching the Spokane vs Portland game and Bittner has been a stud on the ice. Kid is coming into his own the second half. Not a doubt he goes first round, the question now is how high he can go?? That skill set is there and his size is imposing when he actually uses it which he has been more of. Good to see him stepping it up at the most important time when it comes to scouting.
 
I was very impressed by him in the TPG. It was the first time I'd ever seen him play and really paid attention, but I was impressed by his quickness, anticipation, and hands. I sorta assumed he'd be one of those big guys with not a lot more going for him than his size. Should be a late first.
 
TheJuxtaposer said:
I was very impressed by him in the TPG. It was the first time I'd ever seen him play and really paid attention, but I was impressed by his quickness, anticipation, and hands. I sorta assumed he'd be one of those big guys with not a lot more going for him than his size. Should be a late first.
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His skating was my only concern. If he improves he could be a really good NHLer IMO. I hope that the Oilers look at him or Svechnikov with the Pitt pick.
 
Bryanbryoil said:
His skating was my only concern. If he improves he could be a really good NHLer IMO. I hope that the Oilers look at him or Svechnikov with the Pitt pick.
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I think his skating is just fine for someone who is 6'4.

The challenge for him will be maintaining that level of skating as he slowly adds weight. If he plans on playing north of 215 pounds that is going to be a challenge for him.
 
Inside the top 15 now according to Bobby Mac and his crew...

I will say it again...kid is only rising and I can see him inside the top 10 if he keeps this up. 6'4 200lbs with skill is in demand.
 
AmericanDream said:
Inside the top 15 now according to Bobby Mac and his crew...

I will say it again...kid is only rising and I can see him inside the top 10 if he keeps this up. 6'4 200lbs with skill is in demand.
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Wasn't he in Bob's top 15 at the start of the season too?

Not a chance I would take him in the top 10, even though I see why he would be intriguing to NHL teams.

For me, I have plenty of questions about his game. Ultimately, what is his upside? Is his final product similar to a guy like Pacioretty or more like an Eric Fehr? Both are big guys who can skate and really wire the puck, like Bittner can, but there is a big difference between the two in regards to where they should be drafted.
 
R S said:
Wasn't he in Bob's top 15 at the start of the season too?

Not a chance I would take him in the top 10, even though I see why he would be intriguing to NHL teams.

For me, I have plenty of questions about his game. Ultimately, what is his upside? Is his final product similar to a guy like Pacioretty or more like an Eric Fehr? Both are big guys who can skate and really wire the puck, like Bittner can, but there is a big difference between the two in regards to where they should be drafted.
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not sure on where he was pre season though I am sure he was high...I just know alot of scouting services had him dropping the past 3 months only to see him rising with Bobby Mac by far the highest.

agreed on the risk here, but if Crouse is getting ranked that high, I can see a team falling in love with Bittner who has the size and skillset to be a real solid player for years to come. He is just starting to understand how to use that frame of his more consistently and I think since December you have seen the true Paul Bittner step up at over a ppg rate.

I think he has taken too many nights off in the past which makes his consistency an issue. I also believe he needs to use his size more, and not in a punishing way, but in a separate yourself to gain space way...love to see him hawking more around the goal which I have been seeing more of. His hands and shot are pro level, and his skating is above average for his size so the tools are there, just hopefully the toolbox is as well.
 
AmericanDream said:
Inside the top 15 now according to Bobby Mac and his crew...

I will say it again...kid is only rising and I can see him inside the top 10 if he keeps this up. 6'4 200lbs with skill is in demand.
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No way would I draft him in the top 10 or 15, he's still too invisible in games for my liking. I am not a fan of Crouse, I think he is quite easily the most overrated prospect in this draft, but at least he uses his size on a consistent basis. Bittner needs to be in the "mood" to use his size; only uses it when he wants.

Like I said about Virtanen last year, he is more of a support player than someone to make his own offense. He will need to go to a team with good centre depth (specifically playmaking) to have an impact as a consistent player. His shot though is really good (including his skating for his size), definitely worth it as a 1st rounder, but hard to say if he is better than someone like Adam Erne (who he himself went in the 2nd round).
 
I liked him better when I saw him in September. Saw him last week in Seattle and thought he was floating despite a two assist game. But I suppose I should be more lenient since that was his third game in three nights in three different cities. His travel included the cross-country flight for the OHL prospects game and a three hour bus ride to Seattle. But I still get the Dustin Penner vibe, big but not necessarily physical with decent hands.

http://www.columbian.com/news/2015/jan/29/no-rest-for-the-weary-in-junior-hockey/
 
S E P H said:
No way would I draft him in the top 10 or 15, he's still too invisible in games for my liking. I am not a fan of Crouse, I think he is quite easily the most overrated prospect in this draft, but at least he uses his size on a consistent basis. Bittner needs to be in the "mood" to use his size; only uses it when he wants.

Like I said about Virtanen last year, he is more of a support player than someone to make his own offense. He will need to go to a team with good centre depth (specifically playmaking) to have an impact as a consistent player. His shot though is really good (including his skating for his size), definitely worth it as a 1st rounder, but hard to say if he is better than someone like Adam Erne (who he himself went in the 2nd round).
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he and Erne really aren't that similar imo.

Bittner is 6'4 and will easily be around 210lbs by the time he needs to be ready. That size and skill is what will prompt a gm to go high on him...we see it all the time. everyone always talks about bigger players needing to play more physical but that isn't always the case as it isn't his style.

His coaches have made comments that he has pretty much been their mvp since beginning of December and if he keeps this up and hits over 35 goals, he will creep into that top 10 conversation flaws and all.

He has improved his numbers in a ridiculously deep Portland team every year and though I agree with most of the complaints on this kid, you aren't just drafting on now you are drafting on projection. Especially with bigger kids this is difficult to do.

I am most excited to see where Bittner and Bracco go in this draft because of their size differences yet both have talent to be great players.
 
From the games I have seen he has played with Petan and DeLeo on the top line. Though he has played with Bjorkstrand as well on that top line the flip around guys but Bittner and Petan have pretty much been together.plus Bittner put up great numbers with both Petan and Deleo gone at the WJC.
 
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