LW Patrik Laine - Tappara, Liiga (2016 Draft) X

[psycho_dad*]

The whole study and belief of that though is shown to not exist when players have been scouted as long as 2 to 3 years in advance. It matters in the cases of someone like Anthony Mantha (who would of been a 3rd to 5th round pick if born a week before), and the other thing is the more teams account for it, it doesn't matter because it just has to do with age and draft position. Development isn't always linear, and Matthews opportunities weren't the same, he was playing behind Eichel and Dylan Larkin, both guys who were high-end rookies in the NHL, who did Laine have to pass for his spot? No one as highly touted as those two guys. So there are a bunch of factors being ignored.

I'd say the prospect to look at in comparison would be John Tavares who was a late birthday born on September 20th, he actually put up better numbers at 16 and 17 in his league. Development isn't always linear. And the amount people point to the 7 months thing is ridiculous, when the study they are referencing actually shows there is no difference when looking at the top of the draft.

The age effect study on draft has as much relevence as NHLe, as one both are heavily dictated by prior history, and you are applying them to changing factors.

So what you are saying is:

Age difference does not make a difference, and hence 5 months is even smaller than 7 months you would find it completely acceptable comparing Matthews previous season to Laines this season because the age difference is less that way?

Is that correct?

 

[93LEAFS]

So what you are saying is:

Age difference does not make a difference, and hence 5 months is even smaller than 7 months you would find it completely acceptable comparing Matthews previous season to Laines this season because the age difference is less that way?

Is that correct?

Considering Matthews crushed the USNDP breaking records set by elite players (which people here are trying to dismiss) I'd be fine with it. He still probably goes 1st at that point, considering there were scouts who still had him over Eichel. But it matters in the draft context and draft season, which is what the study focuses it on. So applying it a year earlier wouldn't really be a proper application of the data presented.

 

[ijuka]

Indeed, the age difference makes no difference.

Therefore, Auston Matthews scored 1+2=3 in u-20s while Patrik Laine scored 7+6=13 in u-20s. Considering that the age difference makes no difference, it's pretty easy to conclude that Laine is internationally 7 times better at scoring goals.

 

[IFK]

Development isn't always linear, and Matthews opportunities weren't the same, he was playing behind Eichel and Dylan Larkin, both guys who were high-end rookies in the NHL, who did Laine have to pass for his spot? No one as highly touted as those two guys. So there are a bunch of factors being ignored.

It was same in WJC Laine-Pulju-Aho was 2nd line (two 17 year undrafted and one 18 2nd rounder). Kapanen-Hintz-Rantanen was our 1st line and all people think that this line will be best, maybe best of tournament, but what happened, Laine-Pulju-Aho just start to show that they are superiority against older, tougher opponents and there was many 1st rounders against them. It's funny how you find "right" excuses to defend AM. AM have NLA limitless ice time 18 years old, best linemates against much weaker opponents what Laine-Pulju-Aho have in Finland. NLA have few good teams, other teams is just bad and there are teams who have good 1-2 lines, but 3-4 lines are mostly Finnish second league level or not even that good. This have explained you several times, but of course you ignore it cause it's against AM "superiority".

 

[IFK]

Leafs picking Laine would be a disaster.
With Matthews if he isn't scoring he has his 2 way game to fall back on but with Laine if he isn't scoring up to the level people expect the Toronto media will eat him alive.
Laine needs to go to Winnipeg or CBJ.
Matthews also has more maturity and looks to be able to handle to insane toronto media.

But hey any real discussion is moot considering some actually think Laqine is better defensively.

Go to tell Matthews "superiority" to AM thread, this is Laine's thread.

 

[93LEAFS]

Indeed, the age difference makes no difference.

Therefore, Auston Matthews scored 1+2=3 in u-20s while Patrik Laine scored 7+6=13 in u-20s. Considering that the age difference makes no difference, it's pretty easy to conclude that Laine is internationally 7 times better at scoring goals.

Well considering it only focus's on draft year info you are drastically misapplying the logic behind it.

 

[ijuka]

Well considering it only focus's on draft year info you are drastically misapplying the logic behind it.

Why exactly is the focus only on the draft year? Because they both will play in NHL next season?

So in your eyes Artemi Panarin and Connor McDavid had no effective age difference because they started playing in NHL at the same time? That's an interesting position to take.

Are you aware that Matthews and Laine have been playing on different seasons their entire careers?

 

[93LEAFS]

It was same in WJC Laine-Pulju-Aho was 2nd line (two 17 year undrafted and one 18 2nd rounder). Kapanen-Hintz-Rantanen was our 1st line and all people think that this line will be best, maybe best of tournament, but what happened, Laine-Pulju-Aho just start to show that they are superiority against older, tougher opponents and there was many 1st rounders against them. It's funny how you find "right" excuses to defend AM. AM have NLA limitless ice time 18 years old, best linemates against much weaker opponents what Laine-Pulju-Aho have in Finland. NLA have few good teams, other teams is just bad and there are teams who have good 1-2 lines, but 3-4 lines are mostly Finnish second league level or not even that good. This have explained you several times, but of course you ignore it cause it's against AM "superiority".

Laine got 17 minutes a game and 1st line PP minutes, thats pretty impressive ice-time. Matthews was put on the 3rd line on the USNDP team, I'd say its much harder to pass Dylan Larkin and Eichel than whoever Laine had to pass to be on the first line at 16 at the U-18's or the WJC this year. But keep on using the age thing, which is shown not to matter with top prospects when scouted this long, but completely ignore NHLe, which has similar flaws, but is atleast being applied correctly. Even using the older numbers and not Volman's most recent Matthews NLA numbers would come out on top.

 

[Edgelord]

Why exactly is the focus only on the draft year? Because they both will play in NHL next season?

So in your eyes Artemi Panarin and Connor McDavid had no effective age difference because they started playing in NHL at the same time? That's an interesting position to take.

Are you aware that Matthews and Laine have been playing on different seasons their entire careers?

I wasn't aware the NHL is going to use age adjusted points, poor Jagr

 

[93LEAFS]

Why exactly is the focus only on the draft year? Because they both will play in NHL next season?

So in your eyes Artemi Panarin and Connor McDavid had no effective age difference because they started playing in NHL at the same time? That's an interesting position to take.

No because the study I'm referencing focused only on draft year results. Its completely taking the study out of context. Its valuing how players where viewed in there draft year by analyzing where players where drafted, then studying the average return in the separate groups of Late birthdays vs Early Birthdays. It has shown at the top of the draft it doesn't matter, but it starts to split drastically around picks 5 to 20, then slowly get bigger. If you want to see the article in depth, pay and read this, I can't post the actual graph without violating HFboards copyright rules. I'd recommend getting Insider as Pronman has great draft coverage.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/15511937/why-patrik-laine-top-prospect-2016-nhl-draft

 

[ijuka]

I'd say its much harder to pass Dylan Larkin and Eichel

That's so difficult. So difficult in fact that only absolute all-stars such as Matthew Tkachuk, Clayton Keller and Jeremy Bracco have since managed to beat Eichel's record. You know, 2 other draft eligibles and a last year's second-rounder. It's such a worthless record this is just hilarious to read.

 

[Ippenator]

The whole study and belief of that though is shown to not exist when players have been scouted as long as 2 to 3 years in advance. It matters in the cases of someone like Anthony Mantha (who would of been a 3rd to 5th round pick if born a week before), and the other thing is the more teams account for it, it doesn't matter because it just has to do with age and draft position. Development isn't always linear, and Matthews opportunities weren't the same, he was playing behind Eichel and Dylan Larkin, both guys who were high-end rookies in the NHL, who did Laine have to pass for his spot? No one as highly touted as those two guys. So there are a bunch of factors being ignored.

I'd say the prospect to look at in comparison would be John Tavares who was a late birthday born on September 20th, he actually put up better numbers at 16 and 17 in his league. Development isn't always linear. And the amount people point to the 7 months thing is ridiculous, when the study they are referencing actually shows there is no difference when looking at the top of the draft.

The age effect study on draft has as much relevence as NHLe, as one both are heavily dictated by prior history, and you are applying them to changing factors.

Can you then please, pretty please, tell us if 7 months is not at all meaningful in young player's development, then why on earth Matthews scored only 3 points in 2015 WJC and then suddenly a year later 11 points in WJC? Was the huge improvement because it was after all 12 months time of development and not 7 months of development? So with your logic 7 months means nothing at all, but 12 months magically means 8 points worth of development.

You don't really seem to also get it that Laine's and Matthews's 7 month age difference means that Matthews is practically 12 months ahead of Laine in practising and development, as he is one season ahead. This means that Laine was exactly that much behind in practising and development time in the last WJC. So definitely Laine's WJC 2016 is only comparable with Matthews's WJC 2015. Heck, Laine even beat the point production of Matthews when he was a full season younger and more unexperienced at WJC 2016. This sure tells a lot.

 

[ijuka]

No because the study I'm referencing focused only on draft year results. Its completely taking the study out of context. Its valuing how players where viewed in there draft year by analyzing where players where drafted, then studying the average return in the separate groups of Late birthdays vs Early Birthdays. It has shown at the top of the draft it doesn't matter, but it starts to split drastically around picks 5 to 20, then slowly get bigger.

So basically there's no difference between players born 364 days apart, depending on their draft season, even though they have played on entirely different seasons and are a year apart in age? That's an interesting study. Are the late birthday players just slower developers without an exception because they take a year longer to get to the same level? This is what you are suggesting, isn't it?

 

[93LEAFS]

That's so difficult. So difficult in fact that only absolute all-stars such as Matthew Tkachuk, Clayton Keller and Jeremy Bracco have since managed to beat Eichel's record. You know, 2 other draft eligibles and a last year's second-rounder. It's such a worthless record this is just hilarious to read.

Umm, I meant as a center on USA U-18 team when he was a 16 year old, and on the WJC team in 2015, not statistics wise. Being the leading scorer and setting the records is impressive. Not like Laine passed Granlund and Barkov, who are the two best offensive players the SM-Liiga has produced in recent years.

 

[JA]

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Please continue the discussion here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=119452301