LW Patrik Laine - Tappara, Liiga (2016 Draft) X

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Brock Radunske

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You are underestimating how much playing in Toronto drags a player down. I give it 15-20% which will put our guy Laine well in front.

Toronto will drag him down?
Please enlighten us as to what the Jets has accomplished since moving back to Winnipeg.
 

Ippenator

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Patrik Laine defensive / physical play compilation (Liiga Playoffs):

https://streamable.com/efd4

Very, very impressive defensive plays and physical play. This is though how I mostly remember him, and why I claim that he is in fact pretty good even defensively. Definitely not much behind Matthews, if in fact at all. But they both are still offence first talents, as they should be with the amazing offensive talent that they both have. But really seeing this compilation should make some others really realize what a gem Laine really is. And he is even still very raw as a player. Just an incredible talent!

Did you btw make this compilation, ijuka?
 

ijuka

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Very, very impressive defensive plays and physical play. This is though how I mostly remember him, and why I claim that he is in fact pretty good even defensively. Definitely not much behind Matthew, if in fact at all. But they both are still offence first talents, as they should be with the amazing offensive talent that they both have. But really seeing this compilation should make some others really realize what a gem Laine really is. And he is even still very raw as a player. Just an incredible talent!

Did you btw make this compilation, ijuka?

I make these, yes. I didn't make the videos I used for it, I just edit and compile them.
 

The Winter Soldier

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Patrik Laine defensive / physical play compilation (Liiga Playoffs):

https://streamable.com/efd4

These videos should dispel some of the notions Laine is not responsible defensively. No one is expecting him to be a Selke winner from where I sit. But I watched him plenty at the WJC and WHC. And he is fundamentally sound by coming back into the defensive zone. Most I Finns I notice are. The majority of time when you draft a Finnish player, I always say they are trained in all areas of the ice, and not only in the offensive zone. I believe this is a fundamental strength in Finnish hockey in terms of developing players.
 

Ippenator

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I make these, yes. I didn't make the videos I used for it, I just edit and compile them.

I had already before a lot of respect towards you as a poster, and also for the logical and even sometimes scientific approach that you have on the lovely game of hockey. You really base your claims on well based plain and simple facts. And if you make these kind of compilations, my respect towards you is even higher. Great work really! :handclap:
 

ijuka

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These videos should dispel some of the notions Laine is not responsible defensively. No one is expecting him to be a Selke winner from where I sit. But I watched him plenty at the WJC and WHC. And he is fundamentally sound by coming back into the defensive zone. Most I Finns I notice are. The majority of time when you draft a Finnish player, I always say they are trained in all areas of the ice, and not only in the offensive zone. I believe this is a fundamental strength in Finnish hockey in terms of developing players.
In Finnish hockey you have 5 members of the team that all have to play defense. They don't get invited to WC teams and whatnot if they don't. Liiga's an extremely defensive league and Finnish hockey in general is always defense-first.

Obviously he's not a defensive forward but I maintain that for an offensive winger, his defensive play is excellent. These clips don't really highlight his defensive responsibility and staying as the lowest forward but that aspect does exist as well.


What I find especially impressive is that while he's pretty physical and makes all sorts of "semi-slashing" backchecks like that, he only got 6 PIM in 46 regular season games(And 6 PIM in 18 playoff games). That despite the Liiga penalty system being pretty strict overall, especially compared to NHL.


I had already before a lot of respect towards you as a poster, and also for the logical and even sometimes scientific approach that you have on the lovely game of hockey. You really base your claims on well based plain and simple facts. And if you make these kind of compilations, my respect towards you is even higher. Great work really! :handclap:

Thank you, appreciate it!
 
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Halberdier

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Actually it doesn't. If you want to use the middle of what Matthews did at U-18's which they both played at, you average out his 2 years (which is basically the middle ground) he would of put up 11 points, which is exactly what Laine did. You are so drastically overstating the 7 month difference its ridiculous. Matthews production was clearly better, and 7 months doesn't drastically change that. You seem to have no ability to examine the USNDP numbers, and also realize Matthews was given a smaller role at international tournaments when he went as an underager due to the USA team having more depth (Eichel and Larkin were playing above him both times).

But if you want to discus this, do it in the thread I posted it in. I'm not having multiple Laine vs Matthews arguments in this thread anymore

What? Yeah, Laine did score 11 points, 8 goals in U18 tournament as U17, but AM did not. AM scored 7 points, 5 goals.

And that was the only exception when AM was even close to that what Laine had produced. Mind you, 7+6=13 at WJC@U18 is just a bit more than 1+2=3 at WJC@U18, isn't it?

You can't have your cake and eat it too. If 7 months difference is not relevant, 5 months difference should be even less relevant.
 

The Winter Soldier

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Too bad we have been so bad at producing talent in the last 10 years so it's almost impossible to find comparable players. Only players are Granlund and Barkov who were a totally different players and both outscored Laine clearly. It's hard to predict what Laine will be. He has unique shot but he needs to be better in many things to have a great NHL career.

NHLe is bad because it's just tells how bad we have been in the past. I think it will rise if we continue producing NHL players.

Let's not be so modest. Finnish fans can be proud of Laine.

The difference in production for Barkov to Laine was not significant in Liiga.When you factor in Barkov was a 1st line Center and Laine was not a first line winger all season. The difference is minimal. Though yes if we just look at raw numbers Barkov had a slightly better points pace. Goal wise they were very similar. Too bad we do not have the P/60 or G/60 stats. I would wager it would be even closer as Barkov would have played in more situations.

Barkov .905 PPG
Laine .717 PPG

Barkov .396 GPG
Laine .369 GPG

When you factor in Laine outproduced Barkov in the Liiga Playoffs in total points and goals, and at the WJC and WHC.

I don't know how Barkov was better stats wise or accomplishments wise during their draft years. Not singling out Barkov here. But stack Laine's draft year accomplishments against any prospect, they will probably lose.
 

IFK

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Yeah, cause getting 17 minutes a game, doesn't sound like a valid excuse to make up for much of the difference. And his ES numbers don't show he should of been easily promoted. 13 goals in 64 games at ES, yet the reason he didn't score more was just cause of line placement.....

Its more an excuse than actually explaining.

[mod]

You really just taking points way you want people see things and questioned in small samples, you don't wanna see whole picture and actually i think you see that, but you don't wan't to admit that and you again and again pointing things how you want to people see it. But most of we can see bigger picture, context and whole thing with realism that Laine's season was best more than decades in undrafted player and Pulju is not that far away to have amazing season himself too.

Laine was better and better when it comes to this year (he start to get more ice time and PP time in first PP) and games where it matter a most and he shows to be a clutch player, Auston didn't show anything. Autumn was good for Laine, but he didn't produce that much only WJC and after that.

WJC which is tougher competition at least 17 years old playing with other 17 years old and 18 years 2nd rounder (no one could see what they can do and what they did in WJC against players who should be better than them). 7 game 7+6=13 (AM have same age 3 points). This year Laine has FEL regular season 13 games 9+8=17. FEL playoffs 18 games 10+5=15 and then WHC 10 games 7+5=12. No it's not sample size opinion. If we don't look WJC, Laine have this year 41 games and 26+18=44 points so much more tougher competition than NLA and most of games and points is much tougher competition than FEL regular season. If we put WJC there too, it's 48 games and 33+24=57. So there you have, it's not anymore just little sample, but almost same amount of games what AM play whole season (AM have 10 games more). With medals, honors, records and awards that no one just not a single player in Europe have had in 17-18 years old.

So, bad autumn like i said, but WJC and after that was just sex.

Look other young players (U24) who are now NHL stars or close and play in Europe before draft:

Yevgeni Kuznetsov WJC 6 2+0=2, KHL 35 2+6=8, MHL 9 4+12=16, not many playoffs game.
Filip Forsberg WJC 6 0+1=1, Allsvenskan 43 8+9=17, playoffs 10 2+1=3.
Nikita Kucherov didn't play WJC, KHL 9 0+2=2, MHL 23 24+19=43, MHL playoffs 10 5+8=13.
Alexander Barkov WJC 6 3+4=7, FEL 51 21+27=48, FEL playoffs 5 0+5=5.
Mika Zibanejad didn't play WJC, SHL 26 5+4=9, not many playoffs game.
Victor Rask didn't play WJC, Allsvenskan 37 5+6=11, no playoffs games.

NLA is closer to Allsvenskan or MHL than FEL or SHL. FEL and SEL is closer to KHL. All of them was 17 years old and turn draft year 18, not like AM who was 18 years old whole season.
 
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93LEAFS

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It puzzles me how difficult this is for some to comprehend.
So then which season should be used? Draft year or IIHF dates? Funny how people here want to use the advanced studies into birthdate relative to performance (although it has shown to not matter in the top 2 picks by much, and only later in the draft) but want to completely disregard NHLe. But I'm done with this thread, stop responding to my posts if you don't want me here arguing with you. I promise I'll do the same with you.
 

X66

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I have never once claimed that Laine was a terrible defensive player, I just believe he's not as good defensively as Matthews, which is more than fair.
 

IFK

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I have never once claimed that Laine was a terrible defensive player, I just believe he's not as good defensively as Matthews, which is more than fair.

You have said this same in this thread like every day last months, no one care your Matthews love here so go to AM thread tell this, no one care and you don't have any argument, data or realism in that. It's your opinion, but nothing to do in Laine thread.
 

psycho_dad*

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but want to completely disregard NHLe.

Multiple people have explained to you and others why the NHLe should be disregarded.

EVERYONE who knows anything about European hockey leagues know that there is drop in level after Liiga and SEL, but the NHLe suggests Liiga is below NLA, DEL and Czech league.

Would you not disregard something that suggested that AHL and CHL are better than NHL?

It's disregarded because it's obviously, clearly not an accurate measurement. If you don't know that Liiga is a better league than NLA then you are ignorant of European hockey in general and should not have a strong opinion on it either because it stems from said ignorance.


I find that this is the major reason for this debate anyway, because Laine has outproduced Matthews in comparable games, WJC and WHC. So people bring up his NLA numbers against Laine's regular season numbers, claim them to be a comparable measurement and artificially pump up the NLA level to prove a point. While ignoring or at least undervaluing their performances against same opponents on the same level of play.

Laine was MVP in the playoffs, his level of play elevated quickly throughout the season. He was a 3rd line player at the start of the season and he was the biggest star in the league come playoff time, when the toughest games of the season were played against the best teams in the league. He was awarded the MVP and best forward in a tournament with great NHL players like McDavid, Ovechkin, Perry, Barkov etc etc.
 

Ippenator

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So then which season should be used? Draft year or IIHF dates? Funny how people here want to use the advanced studies into birthdate relative to performance (although it has shown to not matter in the top 2 picks by much, and only later in the draft) but want to completely disregard NHLe. But I'm done with this thread, stop responding to my posts if you don't want me here arguing with you. I promise I'll do the same with you.

Good! Oops.
 

IFK

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Multiple people have explained to you and others why the NHLe should be disregarded.

EVERYONE who knows anything about European hockey leagues know that there is drop in level after Liiga and SEL, but the NHLe suggests Liiga is below NLA, DEL and Czech league.

Would you not disregard something that suggested that AHL and CHL are better than NHL?

It's disregarded because it's obviously, clearly not an accurate measurement. If you don't know that Liiga is a better league than NLA then you are ignorant of European hockey in general and should not have a strong opinion on it either because it stems from said ignorance.


I find that this is the major reason for this debate anyway, because Laine has outproduced Matthews in comparable games, WJC and WHC. So people bring up his NLA numbers against Laine's regular season numbers, claim them to be a comparable measurement and artificially pump up the NLA level to prove a point. While ignoring or at least undervaluing their performances against same opponents on the same level of play.

Laine was MVP in the playoffs, his level of play elevated quickly throughout the season. He was a 3rd line player at the start of the season and he was the biggest star in the league come playoff time, when the toughest games of the season were played against the best teams in the league. He was awarded the MVP and best forward in a tournament with great NHL players like McDavid, Ovechkin, Perry, Barkov etc etc.

Good post and let's forget Laine before WJC, look what he have accomplish WJC and after that, there is perspective to all people who bashing Laine or are just Leafs bias. He have amazing, one of the all time best if not best "CV" in WJC and after that this year for any none drafted player.

:yo:
 

93LEAFS

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Multiple people have explained to you and others why the NHLe should be disregarded.

EVERYONE who knows anything about European hockey leagues know that there is drop in level after Liiga and SEL, but the NHLe suggests Liiga is below NLA, DEL and Czech league.

Would you not disregard something that suggested that AHL and CHL are better than NHL?

It's disregarded because it's obviously, clearly not an accurate measurement. If you don't know that Liiga is a better league than NLA then you are ignorant of European hockey in general and should not have a strong opinion on it either because it stems from said ignorance.


I find that this is the major reason for this debate anyway, because Laine has outproduced Matthews in comparable games, WJC and WHC. So people bring up his NLA numbers against Laine's regular season numbers, claim them to be a comparable measurement and artificially pump up the NLA level to prove a point. While ignoring or at least undervaluing their performances against same opponents on the same level of play.

Laine was MVP in the playoffs, his level of play elevated quickly throughout the season. He was a 3rd line player at the start of the season and he was the biggest star in the league come playoff time, when the toughest games of the season were played against the best teams in the league. He was awarded the MVP and best forward in a tournament with great NHL players like McDavid, Ovechkin, Perry, Barkov etc etc.
And the 7 months thing is actually shown not to matter at the top of the draft. Even Pronman admitted this when he did the study. Yet people consistently ignore that and apply it like we are talking about people about to be drafted in the late 1st or the 5th round, where the divide is shown to actually exist. But as said, I'll leave this thread if you want, just stop responding. NHLe is just as valid as the analytical study you are trying to use to prove the age advantage matters, which is repeatedly being incorrectly applied. Here is actually what Pronman said about the issue

This effect does not seem to occur at the very top of the draft board. Think John Tavares, Victor Hedman, Alex Ovechkin, Eric Staal and Patrick Kane among many others as examples of elite late-birthdate prospects. For these older players, who have been scouted closely for years, scouts seemed to have zeroed in the right value point for them. This leads me to believe teams aren’t misidentifying who the NHL talents are. Instead, they are valuing older players with lower offensive upside slightly higher than they should be.
 
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X66

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You have said this same in this thread like every day last months, no one care your Matthews love here so go to AM thread tell this, no one care and you don't have any argument, data or realism in that. It's your opinion, but nothing to do in Laine thread.

Why are you so angry about this?

Clearly people continue to talk about Matthews because it's a interesting topic to discuss, which is why people continue to engage in that conversation/debate.

It's one week until the draft, lighten up.

If the Leafs draft Matthews, I will no longer be a voice in this thread, but I'm here because my team can legitimately draft Laine first overall, which would be a big mistake IMO.
 

IFK

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Why are you so angry about this?

Clearly people continue to talk about Matthews because it's a interesting topic to discuss, which is why people continue to engage in that conversation/debate.

It's one week until the draft, lighten up.

If the Leafs draft Matthews, I will no longer be a voice in this thread, but I'm here because my team can legitimately draft Laine first overall, which would be a big mistake IMO.

No i am not angry, you just don't have nothing to say here more that AM is best in every day. I am Leafs fan and i hope we draft AM too, but he is not BPA AM and Laine is same line to be BPA, but AM is center and that's why i want him to Toronto and only that. Still i have hope they draft Laine so it would nice to see Leafs bias to turn to 180 degrees and that **** storm what comes after that pick.

But go to AM thread to tell this, this is not the thread to come to say that. I'm not coming to say that Laine is BPA to AM thread or didn't come to say that Jones thread that Barkov is BPA.
 

psycho_dad*

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And the 7 months thing is actually shown not to matter at the top of the draft. Even Pronman admitted this when he did the study. Yet people consistently ignore that and apply it like we are talking about people about to be drafted in the late 1st or the 5th round, where the divide is shown to actually exist. But as said, I'll leave this thread if you want, just stop responding. NHLe is just as valid as the analytical study you are trying to use to prove the age advantage matters. Here is actually what Pronman said about the issue

Maybe you quoted the wrong post because mine said nothing about 7 month age difference. Was about the NHLe topic.


I don't think I have tried to prove that the age advantage matters (maybe you are talking about someone else?), but since you brought it up of course it matters.

Their level compared at the same age, helps to gauge possible ceiling and development rate.

Look at Laine, what kind of development did he have within that 7 month span from the start of the season? He went from a 3rd line wing in Liiga to MVP in Liiga and WHC within that 7 months. That's quite a few steps of development.

Like some have asked you, if you don't see any meaning in the 7 month difference, compare them with the smaller, 5 month difference and use Matthews's previous year, compare that to Laine's this season. Since there's like no difference ;) When you give Laine the 5 month advantage (which obviously does not matter in your opinion) the comparison isn't close in any way anymore.
 
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Ippenator

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Why are you so angry about this?

Clearly people continue to talk about Matthews because it's a interesting topic to discuss, which is why people continue to engage in that conversation/debate.

It's one week until the draft, lighten up.

If the Leafs draft Matthews, I will no longer be a voice in this thread, but I'm here because my team can legitimately draft Laine first overall, which would be a big mistake IMO.

Unfortunately I'm pretty sure that you will be here even more if that would happen that Laine would be chosen by the Maple Leafs after all. So I have in fact many reasons to hope that the Maple Leafs will pick Matthews...
 

93LEAFS

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I don't think I have tried to prove that the age advantage matters (maybe you are talking about someone else?), but since you brought it up of course it matters.

Their level compared at the same age, helps to gauge possible ceiling and development rate.

Look at Laine, what kind of development did he have within that 7 month span from the start of the season? He went from a 3rd line wing in Liiga to MVP in Liiga and WHC within that 7 months. That's quite a few steps of development.

Like some have asked you, if you don't see any meaning in the 7 month difference, then compare them with the smaller, 5 month difference and use Matthews's previous year, compare that to Laine's.
The whole study and belief of that though is shown to not exist when players have been scouted as long as 2 to 3 years in advance. It matters in the cases of someone like Anthony Mantha (who would of been a 3rd to 5th round pick if born a week before), and the other thing is the more teams account for it, it doesn't matter because it just has to do with age and draft position. Development isn't always linear, and Matthews opportunities weren't the same, he was playing behind Eichel and Dylan Larkin, both guys who were high-end rookies in the NHL, who did Laine have to pass for his spot? No one as highly touted as those two guys. So there are a bunch of factors being ignored.

I'd say the prospect to look at in comparison would be John Tavares who was a late birthday born on September 20th, he actually put up better numbers at 16 and 17 in his league. Development isn't always linear. And the amount people point to the 7 months thing is ridiculous, when the study they are referencing actually shows there is no difference when looking at the top of the draft.

The age effect study on draft has as much relevence as NHLe, as one both are heavily dictated by prior history, and you are applying them to changing factors.
 

Edgelord

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Unfortunately I'm pretty sure that you will be here even more if that would happen that Laine would be chosen by the Maple Leafs after all. So I have in fact many reasons to hope that the Maple Leafs will pick Matthews...

Leafs picking Laine would be a disaster.
With Matthews if he isn't scoring he has his 2 way game to fall back on but with Laine if he isn't scoring up to the level people expect the Toronto media will eat him alive.
Laine needs to go to Winnipeg or CBJ.
Matthews also has more maturity and looks to be able to handle to insane toronto media.

But hey any real discussion is moot considering some actually think Laqine is better defensively.
 
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