LW Matthew Knies - Tri-City Storm, USHL (2021, 57th, TOR)
- Thread starter Pavel Buchnevich
- Start date
It is a major factor when discussing teenage top 60 picks and not role playing seniors.
I'm very against the hope/hype/temptation of hoping he can step in this year, in any role. Too many shades of Robertson, putting weight on a kid to early, which then spirals into expectation in camp...
But a 22 start ELC with a PTO to the Marlies for the rest of this year... and a mutually understood plan that he'll be a Marlie next year unless he grabs a top 9 spot by the throat and won't let go... I don't see the risk. He's a big U21 that will play the entire season at 20. He looked liked he belonged alongside the likes of Agostino and Miele, who are not only AHLers but high high end ones. Less ready prospects make the jump from the CHL every year and thrive.
The risk is that moving a very young man around will mess with his development. If he is not going to be on the Leafs, and playing in their top 9, then why not keep him in a place that has proven to be good with his development, rather than uproot him yet again? Why take the chance? Stability is something you want for young players- they have enough on their plate dealing with the changes maturing puts on you.
Rude Dog
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Don't see it happening. I would be shocked if he doesn't sign next week. You can argue all you want about the best place for his development, but the Leafs have a good track record of developing and not rushing their prospects under Dubas. But more importantly, the longer you wait on these NCAA guys, the greater the risk that they become UFA's similar to McBain. If you have a chance to sign him now, you do it.
Count me in the group that thinks he should do one more year in College. Would like to see him build off his great Freshman season, could see him putting up over 50 points in 40 games and competing for the Hobey Baker. Would rather see him go pro when he’s for sure ready and hit the ground running.
I’d tend to agree with the people who have followed him closely his freshman year. He’s way too good to make it to UFA status, I think one more year is the way. Sending a guy who isn’t quite ready to the pressure cooker that is the Leafs organization seems like a bad idea. If you give him 12 months, you have a player ready to walk on and be a difference maker.
History shows that that risk is very small. Every hockey player makes similar moves multiple times in their careers- at a younger age and with less support.
That risk was much higher when he left Phoenix at 17 (to live in Nebraska, likely with a billet), and then again when he left Nebraska at 19. In all three cases the move is justified by the development gain of having the player play against the best possible competition available to them that they can still be successful at.
Hell in, the space of like 3 months he was "uprooted" twice to live out of a suitcase and travel to foreign countries? Were those opportunities good for his development or should he have declined to favour stability?
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It will not hurt him to play another year of college on a line with Cooley and Snuggerud and then be able to jump straight into the NHL full time.
Isaac Nootin
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3 Minute Minor
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3 Minute Minor
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Right?
I went back to 2005-06 to see Draft+1 19 year olds in college
Elite Prospects - NCAA Stats All-time season
All-time/historical regular season stats and leaders per season for NCAA, including top goal scorers, most games played, PPG leaders and more.
www.eliteprospects.com
Knies was 23rd in scoring.
If fans need an example to temper expectations, look at Dylan Holloway. That guy had 1.5ppg at Wisconsin and is currently struggling to score in the AHL
There are very very very few examples of guys on that list who jumped to the NHL at 20 successfully
Right?
I went back to 2005-06 to see Draft+1 19 year olds in college
Elite Prospects - NCAA Stats All-time season
All-time/historical regular season stats and leaders per season for NCAA, including top goal scorers, most games played, PPG leaders and more.
Knies was 23rd in scoring.
If fans need an example to temper expectations, look at Dylan Holloway. That guy had 1.5ppg at Wisconsin and is currently struggling to score in the AHL
There are very very very few examples of guys on that list who jumped to the NHL at 20 successfully
The reason he has so much hype is that he's a Leafs prospect and he gives us much-needed size. Him training with the same skills and skating coach as Matthews and having a lot of similar stylistic traits doesn't hurt either. I personally am very excited to see Knies play with Matthews and Marner here and there. I think having 2 dominant guys along the boards in Matthews and Knies would be so much fun to watch.
To your point, there is no risk associated with him going back to MIN. It's the safest play.
But this discussion is moot until we see him in the NHL. That will be his litmus test. I'm of the mind that if a prospect rises to the moment and wins a spot (esp. after a high-profile D+1), then ride it. The overcook approach is not the only formula in hockey.
Old Boys Club
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Right?
I went back to 2005-06 to see Draft+1 19 year olds in college
Elite Prospects - NCAA Stats All-time season
All-time/historical regular season stats and leaders per season for NCAA, including top goal scorers, most games played, PPG leaders and more.
Knies was 23rd in scoring.
If fans need an example to temper expectations, look at Dylan Holloway. That guy had 1.5ppg at Wisconsin and is currently struggling to score in the AHL
There are very very very few examples of guys on that list who jumped to the NHL at 20 successfully
Understand your point, but Holloway is a bad comparison to use. He missed ~9 months of on-ice development/gameplay because of two consecutive wrist surgeries.
AHL at 20? Or all players being "uprooted" while younger and into less favourable situations, most often multiple times?
Eggtimer
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Maybe he can be as good as Marchment ..
Like it’s been said , it’s crazy how much hype this kid is getting.
Like it’s been said , it’s crazy how much hype this kid is getting.
3 Minute Minor
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I don't think anyones point was changing Knies' postal code = bad
It's the idea of yo-yo'ing prospects up and down between the AHL & NHL can mess with their confidence and knock them off their game. Especially highly touted prospects.
Just think of the context right now. You have a 2nd round pick that just played 1 year of college. He went into it with nobody really putting any expectation on him. I doubt he went into the season thinking 1 n done. No fans were putting him in their playoff lineup at the start of the season. Now the hype train is off the rails. People are comparing him stylistically to the best goal scorer in todays game and expecting him to be the perfect fit in the top 6 of one of the top 5-10 teams in the NHL. That's quite the needle to thread as a 19 year old 2nd round pick.
Skinnyjimmy08
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It's cause who drafted him... most other teams there would be very minimal talk of him. And that's no disrespect to Leafs and it's fans and Canadian media... there are just alot of Leaf fans on here and around!!
He's worth the hype. The man is a rare PF in the making which this league doesn't have much of anymore.
Man Bear Pig
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I mean, even the experts are saying how good he's looked, so it's not just fan hype. They've seen him play, you probably haven't I'm guessing. Neither have I, outside of highlights. His stats may not be elite just yet, but it sounds like all the tools are there. The size, the scoring ability, the skating etc. A legit power forward prospect.Right?
I went back to 2005-06 to see Draft+1 19 year olds in college
Elite Prospects - NCAA Stats All-time season
All-time/historical regular season stats and leaders per season for NCAA, including top goal scorers, most games played, PPG leaders and more.
Knies was 23rd in scoring.
If fans need an example to temper expectations, look at Dylan Holloway. That guy had 1.5ppg at Wisconsin and is currently struggling to score in the AHL
There are very very very few examples of guys on that list who jumped to the NHL at 20 successfully
Compare his stats to Matty Beniers, this season, who was selected 2nd overall.
It's pretty remarkable how close he is in scoring to the top 5 draft picks ---- on top of scoring, he plays a 2-way game and can absolutely crush someone.
His comparison is Tom Wilson.
