LW Matthew Knies - Tri-City Storm, USHL (2021, 57th, TOR)

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He’s Knies’s linemate and a top NCAA FA. Several posts in this thread have him joining Knies and signing with the Leafs this spring which seems unlikely to me

you didn't quote one of those Meyers posts, so it just sounded out of the blue lol

I agree with most here, we shouldn't rush him up - in two years, hopefully he'll be ready to take over the reigns of Leafs Nation.

We've been needing a true power forward for a long time.
 
He’s Knies’s linemate and a top NCAA FA. Several posts in this thread have him joining Knies and signing with the Leafs this spring which seems unlikely to me
Yes it does considering what a clown show the Toronto media creates for any player involved with this franchise.
 
you didn't quote one of those Meyers posts, so it just sounded out of the blue lol

I agree with most here, we shouldn't rush him up - in two years, he'll be ready to take over the reigns of Leafs Nation.
I think Toronto signs him 12 months from now. Gives him another year to dominate the collegiate level. He still doesn’t know how to use all of his considerable physical gifts, keeping him in a stable environment at the U of M will be best for his development. He can be a Hobey Baker candidate next year and learn how to be a leader for what promises to be a stacked Gophers team
 
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He’s Knies’s linemate and a top NCAA FA. Several posts in this thread have him joining Knies and signing with the Leafs this spring which seems unlikely to me

Sure. But you do know that multiple American UFAs have signed here. Seems to happen every year. Just last year steeves and petruzelli signed in Toronto.
 
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I think Toronto signs him 12 months from now. Gives him another year to dominate the collegiate level. He still doesn’t know how to use all of his considerable physical gifts, keeping him in a stable environment at the U of M will be best for his development. He can be a Hobey Baker candidate next year and learn how to be a leader for what promises to be a stacked Gophers team

That makes the most sense and historically has been the best path to develop NCAA players, but NHL teams can be stupid with pulling kids to early.
 
Fair, but he's physically dominant at that level. He goes straight through players in transition and bounces guys without even imposing himself. When he does impose himself, you see sequences like last night's game where he trucks players and steals pucks at will. He's not challenged physically whatsoever.

To be PPG as a D+1 and as physically ahead of his peers as he is, as a rookie in the NCAA, he is ready for pro. He's an older birthday for his draft year and although you can never go wrong with the patient approach for a 19 year old, he's also looked like a difference maker on an Olympic US team.

The Marlies are purely a development farm, more so than other AHL affiliates. The team prioritizes rookie development over wins it seems, which is partly due to an incompetent coach but also a directive from Gillman/Dubas. He'll be playing with a combination of Robertson/Steeves/Ho-Sang/Anderson/Holmberg/etc. and potentially his linemate Ben Meyers if the Leafs can lure him. The Leafs have had success with teenagers in the AHL (Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson).

The only case of "rushing" him would be if they burn a year off his ELC down the stretch and play him on the 4th line as a role player.
He is not physically dominant. He is physically very competitive. A guy like Jordan Greenway was physically dominant. Knies is a very strong young guy, but is playing against men who can be as much as 5 years older. There is a massive difference in strength unless you are someone like Nathan Mackinnon. Knies is not that. Knies also needs to work on his skating. It is slightly above average right now for a college player, which is not good enough for the NHL.
Unless Toronto thinks that MN is a poor place for his development, they should keep him in one place.
 
He is not physically dominant. He is physically very competitive. A guy like Jordan Greenway was physically dominant. Knies is a very strong young guy, but is playing against men who can be as much as 5 years older. There is a massive difference in strength unless you are someone like Nathan Mackinnon. Knies is not that. Knies also needs to work on his skating. It is slightly above average right now for a college player, which is not good enough for the NHL.
Unless Toronto thinks that MN is a poor place for his development, they should keep him in one place.
What a semantical point. He is not challenged physically, bottom line.

Of course he has things to work on. If he didn’t he’d be a top 10 pick. What you are listing can be developed at the AHL just as easily as NCAA.
 
From Toronto’s perspective I understand wanting to get him under contract. But burning a year would be beyond dumb.

In 2 years Matthews and nylander will be coming up. With Tavares and marner still under contract for another year.

IF they have any hope of keeping the “big 4” they have to weather the raises of Matty and willy for 1 year and then they can cover the costs with Tavares pay cut.

Tavares should take a pay cut of like what 5-7 million? That would cover most of the raises of Matthews marner and nylander

Having knies on an ELC to Bridge the gap would be smart
While it gets Knies to RFA faster, it doesn't necessarily cost more. Chances are after 1 year (basically one if they burn this year for a few games) his RFA contract would be significantly lower AAV than if we had to pay him after 2 years. This is of course assuming he pans out as we want and his progression is somewhat linear (i.e., his second year is better than his first). It's not necessarily a "win", but it's a trade off that can pay dividends if he takes off in year 2 after being an RFA already.
 
I don't think it would be dumb to burn a year if he is legitimately the best option for a fourth line energy/checking role with skill for Toronto. Would be more useful than Simmonds/Clifford and probably Spezza that's for sure. Might as well start getting experience in a minor role, he's a man amongst boys as it stands right now, and next year he'll surpass that sure, but what's left to learn or figure out against NCAA comp?

Whether it be collegiate or international play he has been a positive factor and a physical force in every viewing of mine, I think it would be a mistake to send him back to Minn. I suspect that he could provide cheap and effective depth energy/scoring right now for an expensive Leafs lineup while developing and getting experience in that limited role (4th line mins). I think they sign him as soon as they're done in April. Not sure if they'll let the ELC slide or not though, depends on how he looks when he gets to Toronto.
 
While it gets Knies to RFA faster, it doesn't necessarily cost more. Chances are after 1 year (basically one if they burn this year for a few games) his RFA contract would be significantly lower AAV than if we had to pay him after 2 years. This is of course assuming he pans out as we want and his progression is somewhat linear (i.e., his second year is better than his first). It's not necessarily a "win", but it's a trade off that can pay dividends if he takes off in year 2 after being an RFA already.

I guess that’s true. I just think there is such a specific pinch point during Matthews ufa year of

Matthews. Nylander. Knies. All becoming ufa at the same time Tavares is paid 11. I would rather the year at 1 million to get over that hump and then decide from there. Knies 2nd contract won’t be 1 million. Even if it’s 3 that’s still 2 million less to give Matty if he wants to stay.
 
I guess that’s true. I just think there is such a specific pinch point during Matthews ufa year of

Matthews. Nylander. Knies. All becoming ufa at the same time Tavares is paid 11. I would rather the year at 1 million to get over that hump and then decide from there. Knies 2nd contract won’t be 1 million. Even if it’s 3 that’s still 2 million less to give Matty if he wants to stay.
Wouldn't Knies be an RFA?
 
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I guess that’s true. I just think there is such a specific pinch point during Matthews ufa year of

Matthews. Nylander. Knies. All becoming ufa at the same time Tavares is paid 11. I would rather the year at 1 million to get over that hump and then decide from there. Knies 2nd contract won’t be 1 million. Even if it’s 3 that’s still 2 million less to give Matty if he wants to stay.

Changing his timeline solely based on being afraid of his next contract is pretty silly. If the Leafs think he can improve their chances to win this year then they should sign him. I'm not at all confident the Leafs will be trying to re-sign Nylander at that point anyways. There's never going to be a great time for the cap. The next year Marner will be up and who knows how they'll replace Tavares,

Having said that I'm fine with the team not signing him if they think it's best for his development.
 
I don't think it would be dumb to burn a year if he is legitimately the best option for a fourth line energy/checking role with skill for Toronto. Would be more useful than Simmonds/Clifford and probably Spezza that's for sure. Might as well start getting experience in a minor role, he's a man amongst boys as it stands right now, and next year he'll surpass that sure, but what's left to learn or figure out against NCAA comp?

Whether it be collegiate or international play he has been a positive factor and a physical force in every viewing of mine, I think it would be a mistake to send him back to Minn. I suspect that he could provide cheap and effective depth energy/scoring right now for an expensive Leafs lineup while developing and getting experience in that limited role (4th line mins). I think they sign him as soon as they're done in April. Not sure if they'll let the ELC slide or not though, depends on how he looks when he gets to Toronto.

If there’s a conflict between what’s best for the player’s development and what’s best for the NHL team’s fourth line, I think you’re better off prioritizing the player’s development. I think a year another year logging first line minutes and special teams for UM, plus a likely WJC role, would be a much better experience for Knies.

Also, no disrespect, but I think the notion that Knies is a man against boys and has nothing left to learn at the NCAA level is very flattering. He’s not a Hobey Baker nominee or anything. A point-per-game pace as a freshman on a very good team is awesome, but far from unheard of.
 
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I don't think it would be dumb to burn a year if he is legitimately the best option for a fourth line energy/checking role with skill for Toronto. Would be more useful than Simmonds/Clifford and probably Spezza that's for sure. Might as well start getting experience in a minor role, he's a man amongst boys as it stands right now, and next year he'll surpass that sure, but what's left to learn or figure out against NCAA comp?

Whether it be collegiate or international play he has been a positive factor and a physical force in every viewing of mine, I think it would be a mistake to send him back to Minn. I suspect that he could provide cheap and effective depth energy/scoring right now for an expensive Leafs lineup while developing and getting experience in that limited role (4th line mins). I think they sign him as soon as they're done in April. Not sure if they'll let the ELC slide or not though, depends on how he looks when he gets to Toronto.

Players who return for their sophomore years and reach a dominant level have a much better chance of turning into impact NHL players than those that are pulled early to play in lesser NHL roles or in the AHL. This is not a Jack Eichel or Clayton Keller situation where he is going to be a 1st line player right away, he's not a finished product. Many of the same reasons for pulling him that you are giving were also given by Buffalo and LA fans when their teams pulled Mittlestadt and Turcotte after their freshman seasons, you want that to happen to him?

Send him back to school, let him be a dominant player for the entire season and then sign him at the end of next season and add a potential difference maker to your lineup for the playoffs next season. If Makar, Hughes, Caufield, McAvoy, Werenski, Norris, Sanderson, Power, Beniers and Boldy can all play two years, so can Knies.
 
If there’s a conflict between what’s best for the player’s development and what’s best for the NHL team’s fourth line, I think you’re better off prioritizing the player’s development. I think a year another year logging first line minutes and special teams for UM, plus a likely WJC role, would be a much better experience for Knies.

Also, no disrespect, but I think the notion that Knies is a man against boys and has nothing left to learn at the NCAA level is very flattering. He’s not a Hobey Baker nominee or anything. A point-per-game pace as a freshman on a very good team is awesome, but far from unheard of.
What conflict is that you're talking about my son?

I think you could develop him while getting an effective fourth liner here. That would be prioritizing his development, finances, career, maybe he wants to be a pro and not a college student? A WJC role for an Olympian would be a real test for him, yeah 100%.

None taken, but I take everything you say with a grain of salt as I can see you're one of them NCAA bois. I disagree and think he would be more than suitable getting NHL minutes or having a prominent role on the Marlies if he needs that to start next season. Either learn to translate your game against men or continue to further exploit boys weaknesses in college? If he was undersized it would be a completely different story but clearly I'm seeing something other's arent..
 
Send him back to school, let him be a dominant player for the entire season and then sign him at the end of next season and add a potential difference maker to your lineup for the playoffs next season. If Makar, Hughes, Caufield, McAvoy, Werenski, Norris, Sanderson, Power, Beniers and Boldy can all play two years, so can Knies.

defensemen develop slower, caufield is uh, not the same physically, Norris was never this good as a frosh.

Look I don't think it's an obvious decision but I don't find these examples particularly enlightening. Same goes for Mittlestadt as if they're remotely comparable physically. I'm not saying Knies will be Tom Wilson out there but he's not going to be pushed around like some of these kids.

And I don't think it's a foregone conclusion Knies has a small role if he signs. This is a Leafs team that picked up Galchenyuk off waivers and made him their 2nd line LW for the playoffs. The Tavares/Nylander 2nd line gets a sheltered offensive deployment, I think he could very well be a successful passenger on that line by playoff time.
 
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As a MN based fan but anything but a Gopher fan, I can’t imagine a case where it’s good for Knies’ development to pull him out now. Watched too many freshman come through college hockey who were significantly more dominant than this player amount to less than they should have been due to being moved along too quickly.

This wasn’t a Vanek or Parise type dominant first year where it was pretty clear they could make the jump but stayed another year. Frankly, he’s not an Alex Newhook or Matt Boldy level prospect and it benefited both to stay another year. And while both look like sound NHL players right now today, it may have helped them further to stick yet another year.
 
What conflict is that you're talking about my son?

I think you could develop him while getting an effective fourth liner here. That would be prioritizing his development, finances, career, maybe he wants to be a pro and not a college student? A WJC role for an Olympian would be a real test for him, yeah 100%.

None taken, but I take everything you say with a grain of salt as I can see you're one of them NCAA bois. I disagree and think he would be more than suitable getting NHL minutes or having a prominent role on the Marlies if he needs that to start next season. Either learn to translate your game against men or continue to further exploit boys weaknesses in college? If he was undersized it would be a completely different story but clearly I'm seeing something other's arent..

I don’t know what an “NCAA boi” is, and frankly, I’m afraid to google that at the office. If you’re suggesting that I’m familiar with NCAA hockey and have seen many players as good or better than Knies benefit massively from a sophomore year at a good program, then I would agree with you.

The conflict I’m suggesting is the following - Knies might be an improvement over Toronto’s current fourth liners, but playing on Toronto’s fourth line is likely not the best decision for Knies’ development.

Knies has been awesome this year. But I think most who have watched him would agree that he can still grow a lot as a leading sophomore at Minnesota, and I think the fact that he wasn’t selected as a top 30 candidate for the Hobey Baker, while not exactly empirical evidence, is a solid indicator that he hasn’t exactly outgrown college hockey.

I forgot that Knies is an ‘02, so he won’t be WJC eligible in ‘23. But your suggestion that his Olympic appearance somehow means he’s outgrown the WJC tells me we’re not on the same wavelength here, because players as good or better than Knies play a D+2 WJC all the time.

I don’t think Knies’ is doomed by playing pro hockey next year, but I do think it’s much more likely that he’s not ready for a big role in the pros than it is that he’s outgrown the NCAA. It’s up to Dubas, but I don’t get why you’d take that risk personally.
 
As a MN based fan but anything but a Gopher fan, I can’t imagine a case where it’s good for Knies’ development to pull him out now. Watched too many freshman come through college hockey who were significantly more dominant than this player amount to less than they should have been due to being moved along too quickly.

This wasn’t a Vanek or Parise type dominant first year where it was pretty clear they could make the jump but stayed another year. Frankly, he’s not an Alex Newhook or Matt Boldy level prospect and it benefited both to stay another year. And while both look like sound NHL players right now today, it may have helped them further to stick yet another year.
Boldy's D+1 had 26pts in 34GP.
 
Boldy's D+1 had 26pts in 34GP.
And if you want to argue Knies is the better prospect it sort of makes the point of not understanding the college game and developmental arches pretty well then doesn’t it?
 
And if you want to argue Knies is the better prospect it sort of makes the point of not understanding the college game and developmental arches pretty well then doesn’t it?
Never argued who is better, you made the comparison, and they are in two different situations after their D+1s. If the standard to go pro is 1.5PPG then you don't understand NHLe and by that logic 80% of collegiate graduates are being rushed.
 
Never argued who is better, you made the comparison, and they are in two different situations after their D+1s. If the standard to go pro is 1.5PPG then you don't understand NHLe and by that logic 80% of collegiate graduates are being rushed.
The fact that you think PPG is a determining factor pretty much ends the conversation.
 

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