Confirmed with Link: Lucas Raymond signs 8 year extension

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

we're still around in 20 years I will gladly troll all of those threads.

As a moderator, shouldn't you now ban yourself for Future Crime?

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

What's the point expectations for Razor this season. I'm hoping for 40g45a. Is that too ambitious?

 

[Euro Twins]

What's the point expectations for Razor this season. I'm hoping for 40g45a. Is that too ambitious?

No, dare I say, that's just ambitious enough.

 

[SoupNazi]

I think Seider could be the exception to take a shorter deal. Like 6 years. Then all those long-term contracts would not end at same time. Larkin has 7 years left, Raymond 8 years.

Think these big deals ending at same summer with any combo of the Top3 guys could become a problem.

Larkin’s deal ending at the same time won’t be a problem at all based on his next contract being possibly the last of his career.

 

[OneMoreTry]

As a moderator, shouldn't you now ban yourself for Future Crime?

A whole new level of „future considerations“.

 

[SirloinUB]

If Razor that's a step forward this will be a steal.

The worst part about the cap is having to care about contract values.

I want the players to feel like they're fairly compensated. On the other hand surplus value drives success. Its a weird balance to strike eh?

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

The worst part about the cap is having to care about contract values.

I want the players to feel like they're fairly compensated. On the other hand surplus value drives success. Its a weird balance to strike eh?

That’s why these early 8-year deals tend to yo-yo.

Roman Josi and Nathan MacKinnon thought they were reasonably compensated with 24 and 36m guaranteed over 6 years. Then both absolutely blew up and were clearly hilariously underpaid.

We are a couple guys from the Raymond, Stuztle, Jarvis, etc camp having really underwhelming early contracts away from swinging back to bridges. It became huge to chase that huge bargain contract that felt like a fair deal to the player after Josi and MacKinnon. But as soon as you’re paying a first year or second year guy in the 10s, teams are going to swing back to being more cautious with the long term deals.

Or teams heavier into the deferred money like Seth Jarvis got. Things don’t stay status quo in contract land for long

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

My buddy in Cincinnati was always a Caps fan. I wish I could go back to the level of cap knowledge he had. He was like “we added Brooks Laich? Score, I like him”.

When I’d look at it and say you’re paying him $5M to be like a 30 point 3C. The f*** are you doing?

Same with Copp or Compher. Love the players. I honestly wish it was easy to just leave it at that.

 

[jkutswings]

No, dare I say, that's just ambitious enough.

Last year he went 31-41-72 playing all 82 games with a 19.0 shooting percentage. From January to April he had 44 points in 45 games and had a 22.7 shooting percentage.

Taking the top 50 point scorers from last year (including Raymond) and removing the defensemen, it averages to a 14.7 shooting percentage.

I say all this because I agree that Raymond could take a step forward this year, even just by maintaining his incredible second half intensity for closer to a full season. But even then the law of averages suggests that it would be hard for him to hit 40 goals. (Last year he took a total of 163 shots on net. Using a 15.0 success rate for this year, he would need to shoot 267 times to score 40 goals.)

Do I think Ray will stay above league average for shooting percentage? Probably, but not as high as he was down the stretch. So while I think he might hit 35 goals, 40 would be astonishing.

 

[dalem177]

we're still around in 20 years I will gladly troll all of those threads.

We should have some sort of bacchanalia day where anyone can necro-revive any thread they want. One thread each only.

 

[odin1981]

What's the point expectations for Razor this season. I'm hoping for 40g45a. Is that too ambitious?

Factoring in that he might miss 3-5 games this year probably around 35g/40-44'sh A.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

34 goals, 48 assists, 82 points

 

[JediOrderPizza]

He could get a lot if certain things work out, say Larkin plays 80 games and DeBrincat gets back to 40 goals. As a line their numbers would be huge.

 

[Winger98]

As a moderator, shouldn't you now ban yourself for Future Crime?

I'll report myself, too, but I might know an admin or two who might look the other way.

Last year he went 31-41-72 playing all 82 games with a 19.0 shooting percentage. From January to April he had 44 points in 45 games and had a 22.7 shooting percentage.

Taking the top 50 point scorers from last year (including Raymond) and removing the defensemen, it averages to a 14.7 shooting percentage.

I say all this because I agree that Raymond could take a step forward this year, even just by maintaining his incredible second half intensity for closer to a full season. But even then the law of averages suggests that it would be hard for him to hit 40 goals. (Last year he took a total of 163 shots on net. Using a 15.0 success rate for this year, he would need to shoot 267 times to score 40 goals.)

Do I think Ray will stay above league average for shooting percentage? Probably, but not as high as he was down the stretch. So while I think he might hit 35 goals, 40 would be astonishing.

Part of taking that next step is learning to shoot more. Even if the shooting percentage dips a little bit, he'd score more just because of volume. Really, that's the step we complain about a lot of guys not taking. For whatever reason, they just can't find that comfort level to take those extra shots.

that said, I'd have a hard time complaining about Raymond if he's just a 30 goal, 70 point guy. It'd be nice to have the Swedish kucherov but I don't see it as a necessity.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

34 goals, 48 assists, 82 points

That’s realistically the kind of player I expect Raymond to be consistently. Kevin Fiala with defense.

Or Clayton Keller with a less redneck name.

 

[jkutswings]

Part of taking that next step is learning to shoot more. Even if the shooting percentage dips a little bit, he'd score more just because of volume. Really, that's the step we complain about a lot of guys not taking. For whatever reason, they just can't find that comfort level to take those extra shots.

that said, I'd have a hard time complaining about Raymond if he's just a 30 goal, 70 point guy. It'd be nice to have the Swedish kucherov but I don't see it as a necessity.

Totally fair. I'm just saying that he isn't going to jump straight to Ovechkin status for shots on goal. If least year he had 163 shots, then something like 200-210 shots at 18 percent success for 36-38 goals is a more realistic "next step" than 240-250 shots at 18 percent for 43-45 goals.

But hey, I'd love for Ray Ray to prove me wrong.

 

[DoMakc]

Red Wings generally don't shoot much, their offence is more about quality of shots like Tampa than volume (Hurricanes). I don't see that changing drastically, but it also means that shooting percentage should also stay high.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Red Wings generally don't shoot much, their offence is more about quality of shots like Tampa than volume (Hurricanes). I don't see that changing drastically, but it also means that shooting percentage should also stay high.

I’m expecting a dip. Fabbri and Sprong were decent lower lineup shooters and we lost that ability. Their replacements this year likely don’t match their combined production. And I’m not sure Tank will be better than Perron in the goal department unless you take overtime away from DBC and Raymond.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Red Wings generally don't shoot much, their offence is more about quality of shots like Tampa than volume (Hurricanes). I don't see that changing drastically, but it also means that shooting percentage should also stay high.

It was amusing watching all the advanced stat boys listening to their computers tell them that Detroit's shooting percentage was unrealistically high.

All they had to do was actually watch a game and see that Detroit was obsessed, to the point of fan frustration, with holding the puck until they had the perfect scoring opportunity.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

As a moderator, shouldn't you now ban yourself for Future Crime?

This isn’t the minority report…

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

This isn’t the minority report…

You wouldn't think that if you could see what I see...

 

[SantosHalper]

Red Wing 4 life!

 

[KJoe88]

Yay

 

[Henkka]

What's the point expectations for Razor this season. I'm hoping for 40g45a. Is that too ambitious?

He did end the season with 11 points in last 6 games.

1.83 points per game.

So if we'll project from that:
61 goals + 89 assists = 150 points.

 

[Euro Twins]

He did end the season with 11 points in last 6 games.

1.83 points per game.

So if we'll project from that:
61 goals + 89 assists = 150 points.

I'd be ok with 148 points