Confirmed with Link: Logan Stanley 2 years 1.25 million

[drumzan]

even if we find 2 nhl caliber players every year that is still not enough to build a team off of, you get 7 years of control, 2x7 = 14 meaning 9 spots would need to be filled else where, and that doesn't even account the quality of those 14 players or the position they play

were going to have holes in our roster, were not going to be able to fill those holes for free, were going to have to trade our picks if we ever want to compete

Yeah I just don’t agree with the bolded at all. Just my opinion.

How many roster players would the Jets have gotten if they kept all their 1st’s and 2nd’s and used them in the draft?

The Blues and Capitals barely traded away any picks the years they won the Cup.

 

[gojetsgo]

Yeah I just don’t agree with the bolded at all. Just my opinion.

How many roster players would the Jets have gotten if they kept all their 1st’s and 2nd’s and used them in the draft?

The Blues and Capitals barely traded away any picks the years they won the Cup.

blues traded a 1st a 2nd and tage thompson for ryan o'reilly the year they won a cup, caps didn't the year they won but did trade a 1st and 2nd for shattenkirk the year before

drafts since the winnipeg jets have returned: 14
1st round picks since the jets have returned: 15
2nd round picks since the jets have returned: 11

we used 2 2nd round picks on a top 4 dman in dillon and used 1 on nino who we extended so not a bad use on 3 of them...

 

[Flair Hay]

I will reiterate: Kovy can skate - at an NHL level. Nuff said right there.

Do you think we could get a 4th rd pick for Stan? If we could, we should while we still can.

I didn't put that very well. It is not Stanley himself that I am sick of. It is all of the baggage that goes with him that I am sick of. I am sick of losing other players in order to keep him around. Argue the quality of those players all you want. I'm not a Stanley hater. Never have been. But I am tired of everything connected to him. He is a 7/8 Dman. Why isn't he gone?

Yeah I can see why the club would want to hang on to Stanley. I think you're right about the opportunity cost. We had two solid NHL guys in Kovacevic and Chisholm on 6 figure salaries that have proven they aren't liabilities.

That may be an indictment of the Schmidt acquisition more than keeping Stan around.

Stan probably still offers more upside, but that upside gets further and further away every year.

 

[drumzan]

blues traded a 1st a 2nd and tage thompson for ryan o'reilly the year they won a cup, caps didn't the year they won but did trade a 1st and 2nd for shattenkirk the year before

drafts since the winnipeg jets have returned: 14
1st round picks since the jets have returned: 15
2nd round picks since the jets have returned: 11

we used 2 2nd round picks on a top 4 dman in dillon and used 1 on nino who we extended so not a bad use on 3 of them...

How many playoff rounds did the Jets win with those trades?

 

[gojetsgo]

How many playoff rounds did the Jets win with those trades?

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

34% of 2nd round picks play >99 games in the nhl and that doesn't even include the quality of the players

we got 99 games out of nino so far with 3 more years left on his contract
we got 238 games out of a top 4 defensemen in dillon

just by going off of average those 3 2nd's we traded should have netted 1 nhl player and the quality of that player would vary.

but I guess since it didn't ultimately work out with dillon it means it was a bad trade and those 2nd round picks were guaranteed to be better...

 

[drumzan]

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

34% of 2nd round picks play >99 games in the nhl and that doesn't even include the quality of the players

we got 99 games out of nino so far with 3 more years left on his contract
we got 238 games out of a top 4 defensemen in dillon

just by going off of average those 3 2nd's we traded should have netted 1 nhl player and the quality of that player would vary.

but I guess since it didn't ultimately work out with dillon it means it was a bad trade and those 2nd round picks were guaranteed to be better...

The answer is zero. Zero playoff rounds won as a result of those trades.

And spots were blocked for Heinola, Stanley, Kovacevic, Chisholm because of the Dillon and Schmidt trades.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Answer honestly:

How many minutes of Kovacevic have you actually watched?

I feel like a narrative just went around here that he's a decent player and it got accepted as fact

Honestly, not many. I don't see much of the Moose on TV. But I liked what I saw. Actually I probably saw more of him playing for Habs. He wasn't getting turnstiled. He did a solid, unspectacular job on the 3rd pair. Showed a little offense.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah I can see why the club would want to hang on to Stanley. I think you're right about the opportunity cost. We had two solid NHL guys in Kovacevic and Chisholm on 6 figure salaries that have proven they aren't liabilities.

That may be an indictment of the Schmidt acquisition more than keeping Stan around.

Stan probably still offers more upside, but that upside gets further and further away every year.

Stan is 26 YO now. Mostly, he is what he is and will be.
He did change up his style a bit last year. He stepped up to fight a few times. I think he must have taken a few hockey fighting lessons because he got a lot better at it later in the season. More importantly than a few fights, I think he started hitting a little more. As long as he doesn't overdo that (Mark Stuart) it makes him a little better defensively. But against teams that play a fast paced game, he was exposed.

I will say again, I'm not a Stanley hater. He is a decent 7th Dman. I don't think he should be a regular on any decent team. On a weaker team or as an injury fill in he is OK. I think he is actually pretty good on the PK, FWIW.

 

[Jets 31]

the GM hasn't been the same for 13 years in Toronto.

I know, they have had a couple in that time frame and haven't done anything. Winning a Cup or even getting to a Cup final is very,very hard that's the point i was trying to make.

 

[Jets 31]

The answer is zero. Zero playoff rounds won as a result of those trades.

And spots were blocked for Heinola, Stanley, Kovacevic, Chisholm because of the Dillon and Schmidt trades.

I agree we have to be a draft and develop team absolutely but i don't mind taking a chance to add to your team if you are having a good season. Every team does that at the deadline, sometimes it helps sometimes it doesn't .

 

[WolfHouse]

Just using JFresh is through embodiment of what I hate about analytics.

You know you're on shakey ground when you start accusing people of spreading "disinformation" lol

As you said, one is a 6/7, the other is a 7/8. That's my goddamn point. They're both interchangeable parts on most teams

And one has pretty decent advanced stats while the other is a train wreck... they are not interchangeable

 

[gojetsgo]

The answer is zero. Zero playoff rounds won as a result of those trades.

And spots were blocked for Heinola, Stanley, Kovacevic, Chisholm because of the Dillon and Schmidt trades.

just because you don't win doesn't mean it was a bad trade, I already showed you the odds of 2nd round picks hitting so I guess that's why you changed your argument to suddenly saying that guys were being blocked...

you are acting like dillon/schmidt are bad defensemen, dillon is a legit top 4, the only player you listed that could become a top 4 is heinola, who finally had a good training camp and would have been on the team had it not been for that injury, schmidt was also a good bottom pairing defensemen...

the blocking argument for prospects works a hell of a lot better when you use the likes of bitteto/sbisa and not actual legit nhl defensemen

 

[KingBogo]

The answer is zero. Zero playoff rounds won as a result of those trades.

And spots were blocked for Heinola, Stanley, Kovacevic, Chisholm because of the Dillon and Schmidt trades.

It is likely that Stanley Kovacevic or Chisholm will never be as good as Dillion is. So it is a bad thing for better player to block worse players? I’m hopeful for Heinola but he is coming off his ELC just as both Dillon and Schmidt are no longer on the team opening the door wide open for him.

 

[Buffdog]

And one has pretty decent advanced stats while the other is a train wreck... they are not interchangeable

2023 - 24

Stanley
59.09 GF% 48.92 xGF%

Kovacevic
57.35 GF% 46.93 xGF%

So.. when you said that one of them has pretty decent advanced stats, I'm gonna assume you're talking about Stanley?

 

[WolfHouse]

2023 - 24

Stanley
59.09 GF% 48.92 xGF%

Kovacevic
57.35 GF% 46.93 xGF%

So.. when you said that one of them has pretty decent advanced stats, I'm gonna assume you're talking about Stanley?

For a guy who constantly bitches about the misuse of fancy stats.. you sure do you're share of it

Oh and here's your answers once you start complaining about how this isn't a holistic picture of the player...
2022 JFreshHockey NHL Player Card Explainer

I will concede that Stanley's card likely has a bounce back for the 2023-24 season - but I can also guarantee that bounce doesn't reach Kova's slump.

 

[WolfHouse]

Chisholm's card is even more depressing...

 

[Buffdog]

For a guy who constantly bitches about the misuse of fancy stats.. you sure do you're share of it

Oh and here's your answers once you start complaining about how this isn't a holistic picture of the player...
2022 JFreshHockey NHL Player Card Explainer

I will concede that Stanley's card likely has a bounce back for the 2023-24 season - but I can also guarantee that bounce doesn't reach Kova's slump.

Um, those aren't stats. They're models

Maybe you should have read the link you included

If you'd like, I could take the time to explain the difference between stats and models but I feel like it would probably be worth the effort for you to figure it out for yourself

 

[drumzan]

just because you don't win doesn't mean it was a bad trade, I already showed you the odds of 2nd round picks hitting so I guess that's why you changed your argument to suddenly saying that guys were being blocked...

you are acting like dillon/schmidt are bad defensemen, dillon is a legit top 4, the only player you listed that could become a top 4 is heinola, who finally had a good training camp and would have been on the team had it not been for that injury, schmidt was also a good bottom pairing defensemen...

the blocking argument for prospects works a hell of a lot better when you use the likes of bitteto/sbisa and not actual legit nhl defensemen

My argument was this team needs to stick to draft and develop. They traded away two 2nd’s and a 3rd for two vets that blocked Heinola, Stanley, Kovacevic, Chisholm. Two of those drafted / developed players were lost for nothing. These things are directly related.

I never once said Dillon or Schmidt are bad. But I think the trades were bad, and shortsighted on Chevy/Chipman’s part.

The trades reminded me of the Kevin Hayes trade. Was that Hayes trade good value? Yes. It was Kevin Hayes in his prime. Was it the right move to do at the time? Absolutely not - the team was several pieces away from being a Cup contender.

Anyways - I’ve made my points and so have you. I’m done with this topic. Have a good night GoJetsGo.

 

[gojetsgo]

My argument was this team needs to stick to draft and develop. They traded away two 2nd’s and a 3rd for two vets that blocked Heinola, Stanley, Kovacevic, Chisholm. Two of those drafted / developed players were lost for nothing. These things are directly related.

I never once said Dillon or Schmidt are bad. But I think the trades were bad, and shortsighted on Chevy/Chipman’s part.

The trades reminded me of the Kevin Hayes trade. Was that Hayes trade good value? Yes. It was Kevin Hayes in his prime. Was it the right move to do at the time? Absolutely not - the team was several pieces away from being a Cup contender.

Anyways - I’ve made my points and so have you. I’m done with this topic. Have a good night GoJetsGo.

unless you get extremely lucky you can not build an entire team thru drafting.. we've had 15 1st round picks in 14 drafts...

only one of those players has the upside of a top 4 defensemen and we still have him in the system he would have made the team last year if it weren't for an injury and he has a really good chance of making it again this year

trading picks with low odds of making the nhl for actual good players is not a bad trade, it is not shortsighted at all, we were trying to compete, we needed defensemen and we got some for a relatively cheap cost, I think shortsighted would be doing nothing and hoping that our prospects beat the odds and hit...

 

[WolfHouse]

Um, those aren't stats. They're models

Maybe you should have read the link you included

If you'd like, I could take the time to explain the difference between stats and models but I feel like it would probably be worth the effort for you to figure it out for yourself

They are models based on statistics. How do you think models are created... they show the overall characteristics of the underlying statistics.

Holy fk you're so far down this path of bullshit that I don't think you even know what side you're arguing anymore.

I can understand this stuff the 'homer crew' because now that Kova and Chisholm are not Jets they must have ALWAYS been crap... Stan is still here so lets find any way to make it look like we 'succeeded' - ie the percentage of draft success post

Jets have fallen for the sunk cost fallacy with Stanley - we lost decent players before giving them a shot... and we will ride it out for another two years of chances.

 

[Buffdog]

They are models based on statistics. How do you think models are created... they show the overall characteristics of the underlying statistics.

Holy fk you're so far down this path of bullshit that I don't think you even know what side you're arguing anymore.

I can understand this stuff the 'homer crew' because now that Kova and Chisholm are not Jets they must have ALWAYS been crap... Stan is still here so lets find any way to make it look like we 'succeeded' - ie the percentage of draft success post

Jets have fallen for the sunk cost fallacy with Stanley - we lost decent players before giving them a shot... and we will ride it out for another two years of chances.

Models base their outcomes on how they weigh their inputs, which is based on the opinion of the person who designed the model. Those aren't useful in assessing the value of a player, and they aren't used in things like arbitration hearings. But they sure as shit come in handy when a guy like you wants to win an internet argument

Besides, you didn't say that Stanley had worse outcomes in models. You said statistics. You were wrong.

Had you said "there's a random dude on Twitter that made a model that shows that Kovy is better", I would have responded to THAT with the response it deserved:

 

[WolfHouse]

Models base their outcomes on how they weigh their inputs, which is based on the opinion of the person who designed the model. Those aren't useful in assessing the value of a player, and they aren't used in things like arbitration hearings. But they sure as shit come in handy when a guy like you wants to win an internet argument

Besides, you didn't say that Stanley had worse outcomes in models. You said statistics. You were wrong.

Had you said "there's a random dude on Twitter that made a model that shows that Kovy is better", I would have responded to THAT with the response it deserved:

View attachment 893186

Holy fk man.... you're good for a laugh. You've turned into the biggest gaslighted on this forum.

Okay sure jfresh is 'just a guy on twitter'... but somehow you have deep insight into the flaws of statistics... at least I concede to guys that actually analyze stats for a living.

Believe Stanley is a good dman if you want - or don't I guess... your posts are such garbled bullshit now that it really is hard to tell

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

So much heated debate for a #6/7 D. Stan is fine - he's physical, fights, and knows all of the guys.

Kovacevic and Chisholm are also fine #6/7 D. Chevy has made the call the Stan is the right fit for that role, and he was looking pretty good at the end of last season.

The team is not materially any different if we swap Stan with either of those guys, and it's probably not worth several pages of attacking eachother over.

 

[Jets 31]

While i agree we have to be a draft and develop team sometimes i think people think of draft picks like Peter.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

- Dillion for 2 seconds was a good trade….
-Neto reider for a 2 nd and then extending him was a good trade and asset management.

- Tofoli and Monahan were trades that looked good on paper that turned out bad. The loss of a 1 st / 2nd and 3 rd cuts pretty hard on draft day. But we signed Schiefele and Helly with the promise we will try and compete when we are in a good position . And we were top 4 team with least amount of goals against….


So ….. in closing Eh….. Stanley “ what are you going to do?”