Value of: Linus Ullmark to your goalie needy team

[frightenedinmatenum2]

This would be true if only one team was interested in Ullmark. I imagine more than one team is interested therefore his value will go up. Boston also doesn't have to trade him.

The problem is that his pending UFA status acts like a NTC.

His floor is going to be whatever teams will give up for him as a 1 year rental. Then the ceiling is dictated by how many teams are willing to meet his ask on a new contract, and how many of those willing teams he will sign with. Depending on what kind of terms he is asking for, it could be as few as 1 team.

The Debrincat trade is an example of this. There are many more examples throughout the years.

I think they will get a late 1st for him minimum, because there are so few goalies out there. I don't think they will hit the home run people think that they might because only a few teams will be willing to go top dollar+top term and give up assets.

 

[Forge]

Bruins have had 3 different head coaches over that stretch along with some key roster turnover.

The one constant is their goaltending coach Bob Essensa.

I’d say he’s had a hand in developing/fine tuning Thomas, Rask, Ullmark, Swayman, etc.

Can the devils trade for Essensa?

 

[BruinLVGA]

Marner for Ullmark/carlo/lysell

let’s see the chaos

You‘re retaining 100% on his salary, right?

 

[Reality Czech]

Fixed it for you. Important to note, you know, the Vezina he won last year.

View attachment 873566

Didn't Jim Carey win a Vezina too? Ullmark is solid but probably not as good as his recent regular season numbers might suggest.

When is the last time a goalie got a massive return, let alone a guy with one year left? The return is likely to be underwhelming.

I'm wary of Ulmark, The Bruins have had good goaltending for the past 14 years. I wonder how much has to do with the system the Bruins have and how much is individual goalie skill.

Good point. As a Blues fan I watched average goalies put up incredible numbers during the Hitchcock era. Hard to judge goalies on stats alone.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Of course he did... that's like a player saying "get pucks in deep" during an intermission interview.

Not really like that at all. He was asked a follow up question and he expanded on his reasoning about his kids and family. It's a business and if the B's can find a deal that sends him to a place not on his list, then he has no choice. But he is going to use his NTC strategically to try and stay 1 more year before going to free agency.

I'm not sure why that is hard for you to understand.

 

[Son of Donegal]

Didn't Jim Carey win a Vezina too? Ullmark is solid but probably not as good as his recent regular season numbers might suggest.

When is the last time a goalie got a massive return, let alone a guy with one year left? The return is likely to be underwhelming.



Good point. As a Blues fan I watched average goalies put up incredible numbers during the Hitchcock era. Hard to judge goalies on stats alone.

LOL. Yeah, and the Capitals got Adam F****ing Oates, Bill Ranford and Rick Tocchet in the Jim Carey trade with Boston.

Ullmark probably won't get much more than a 2nd round pick and another piece. But it doesn't mean he isn't an excellent goalie. He was good with Buffalo before coming to Boston.

 

[wintersej]

Didn't Jim Carey win a Vezina too? Ullmark is solid but probably not as good as his recent regular season numbers might suggest.

When is the last time a goalie got a massive return, let alone a guy with one year left? The return is likely to be underwhelming.



Good point. As a Blues fan I watched average goalies put up incredible numbers during the Hitchcock era. Hard to judge goalies on stats alone.

Obviously, he isn't going to put up Hasek like numbers every year like he put up on an all time best team.

But, I challenge you to pick out, without looking it up, which of those years were for the tire fire Buffalo Sabers vs the Bruins.

The Bruins team D was not good this year. Losing Bergeron from the first line, Krejci from the 2nd line, and Hall from the 3rd line turned them into a bad possession team that was constantly playing defense.

I *hear* you on systems goalies. This Bruins team ain't the Julien/Cassidy Bruins.

 

[My3Sons]

Bruins will have a tough market for a pending UFA with a pretty restrictive NTC who is likely to demand a hefty payday. Look at how it turned out for Winnipeg. If Boston doesn't want to extend Ullmark and wants to trade him the offers will probably not be spectacular. What's a good rental price? A low first a conditional third in a future year and a B+ prospect? It's hard to see a team offering a young already somewhat successful NHL player with multiple years of team control but maybe Necas from Carolina as the basis of a bigger trade if they really don't want to pay him? Necas to Boston for Ullmark and Frederic and a pick or something?

 

[TD Charlie]

The problem is that his pending UFA status acts like a NTC.

His floor is going to be whatever teams will give up for him as a 1 year rental. Then the ceiling is dictated by how many teams are willing to meet his ask on a new contract, and how many of those willing teams he will sign with. Depending on what kind of terms he is asking for, it could be as few as 1 team.

The Debrincat trade is an example of this. There are many more examples throughout the years.

I think they will get a late 1st for him minimum, because there are so few goalies out there. I don't think they will hit the home run people think that they might because only a few teams will be willing to go top dollar+top term and give up assets.

Done. Don't even care where it comes from. Done. I'm already on the way, be there in 15 to pick him up on the way to Logan.

 

[Reality Czech]

View attachment 874278

Obviously, he isn't going to put up Hasek like numbers every year like he put up on an all time best team.

But, I challenge you to pick out, without looking it up, which of those years were for the tire fire Buffalo Sabers vs the Bruins.

The Bruins team D was not good this year. Losing Bergeron from the first line, Krejci from the 2nd line, and Hall from the 3rd line turned them into a bad possession team that was constantly playing defense.

I *hear* you on systems goalies. This Bruins team ain't the Julien/Cassidy Bruins.

I think he's a good goalie no doubt but I saw people say after last year he's a top 5 goalie in the league based on his Vezina numbers. People probably jumped the gun on that. Everything fell into place for the Bruins last year but it seems like he's not even the best goalie on his team, though he would be on many teams around the league.

I also think people rely too much on stats to declare which goalies are better than others. Gretzky and others say that the most important thing is if he makes the saves when they count most. Who really cares if he lets in a goal to make it 5-1 instead of 4-1? Brian Elliott had similar numbers a decade ago to what Ullmark had last year but it didn't mean he was a top goalie in the league. Ullmark is 9th all time in save percentage but that says more about the era in which he plays than him being a top ten goalie of all time. Cechmanek is 7th, which proves the need to take pure stats with a grain of salt.

The big question is can he get it done in the playoffs. He's a very good goalie but it's debatable where he ranks among his peers.

 

[Forge]

I wouldn't worry about Ullmark's play so much.

The biggest issue to me regarding Ullmark is that he's clearly not a work horse. You're not trading for a guy that is going to start 55-60 games for you. Or at least, that shouldn't be the expectation.

If you're trading for Ullmark, you're probably going to get 40-43 games of high quality starting goalie play. But if you're the devils, you're still probably starting Jake Allen for close to 40 games.

 

[wintersej]

I think he's a good goalie no doubt but I saw people say after last year he's a top 5 goalie in the league based on his Vezina numbers. People probably jumped the gun on that. Everything fell into place for the Bruins last year but it seems like he's not even the best goalie on his team, though he would be on many teams around the league.

I also think people rely too much on stats to declare which goalies are better than others. Gretzky and others say that the most important thing is if he makes the saves when they count most. Who really cares if he lets in a goal to make it 5-1 instead of 4-1? Brian Elliott had similar numbers a decade ago to what Ullmark had last year but it didn't mean he was a top goalie in the league. Ullmark is 9th all time in save percentage but that says more about the era in which he plays than him being a top ten goalie of all time. Cechmanek is 7th, which proves the need to take pure stats with a grain of salt.

The big question is can he get it done in the playoffs. He's a very good goalie but it's debatable where he ranks among his peers.

The league wide save percentage and the pad sizes are not what it was when Brian Elliot was around. We all know this, so while I totally feel you on the argument that team effects matter a lot and that comparing goalies just on stats is dubious (and even worse when people start bringing in the flawed xGSAA type stats as "proof"), I don't really see any argument for why Ullmark shouldn't be considered an upper echelon goalie after his time in Buffalo and in front of a flawed Boston team this year putting up very good numbers.

Not sure how Swayman and Ullmark couldn't be more similar:

The playoffs thing is totally a valid argument. Ullmark dumbly played through an injury last playoffs. This playoffs Swayman just stole it from him. Which was great, because of course the Bruins want to go with the younger guy. Ullmark has only ever started 9 playoff games in his career and his numbers aren't great. There are legit excuses and small sample size arguments along the way over 9 games, but even if you accept those, he certainly hasn't proven anything.

Perhaps, we don't really dis-agree that much. I just mainly wanted to point out that this years Bruins team and those Buffalo teams were not the kind of stat inflating teams that Jim Carey or Brian Elliot played in front of.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

I don’t think Philadelphia would be in on it. But I think that would be nice if they do.

So we’re giving up on Ersson?

 

[dgibb10]

LOL. Yeah, and the Capitals got Adam F****ing Oates, Bill Ranford and Rick Tocchet in the Jim Carey trade with Boston.

Ullmark probably won't get much more than a 2nd round pick and another piece. But it doesn't mean he isn't an excellent goalie. He was good with Buffalo before coming to Boston.

And Dominick Hasek got a late 1st and a 27 year old middle 6 winger

 

[bearcountry17]

And Dominick Hasek got a late 1st and a 27 year old middle 6 winger

And Don Sweeney himself got a 1st, one year away, from a bottom 10 team + a solid prospect in Kuraly for Martin Jones.

 

[dgibb10]

And Don Sweeney himself got a 1st, one year away, from a bottom 10 team + a solid prospect in Kuraly for Martin Jones.

Yep, for a 25 year old.

 

[SnS]

So we’re giving up on Ersson?

I don’t think Ersson is the answer, I also don’t think he’s ready for a major load of games.

 

[bearcountry17]

Yep, for a 25 year old.

With 34 games of NHL experience, behind a great team defence, coming off a sophomore slump with a .906 sv%( league average was .911 then), zero Vezina’s… What Ullmark lacks in youth he more than makes up the difference in ability.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Nah, not trading Mercer for ullmark. It's unnecessary.

Is it? Because NJ seems to need a goalie in a BAD way

 

[Forge]

Is it? Because NJ seems to need a goalie in a BAD way

Yes, it's unnecessary. His market won't require it

 

[dgibb10]

Is it? Because NJ seems to need a goalie in a BAD way

Every team who has ever traded for a goalie has done so because they seemed to need a goalie.

Plenty of NHL teams have needed a goalie over the past decade. The only goalie to return a mercer caliber piece was Cory Schneider.

Cory Schneider was 27 years old, and ranked 1st in SV%, 1st in GAA, and 2nd in GSAx/60 over the previous 3 years.

 

[tsujimoto74]

And Dominick Hasek got a late 1st and a 27 year old middle 6 winger

Hasek dictated his own trade terms and needed the team he went to to still be a cup favorite when he got there.

 

[dgibb10]

Hasek dictated his own trade terms and needed the team he went to to still be a cup favorite when he got there.

So like for example if a player had a 15 team NTC that he has already used and has stated he will be using?

 

[BigGoalBrad]

I’m a Bruins fan but I wouldn’t trade for someone that would rather be a backup than be the starter on a playoff team it’s not like he has a ring and blocking a trade to the Kings was ridiculous. We’ve stupidly started him over Swayman in the playoffs twice he probably likes his chances to have slightly better stats and get the nod next year. Also probably likes the 50% workload.

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

Mercer straight up should be fair.

No way