Proposal: Lindholm to Canucks for Hunter Brustewicz +

[blankall]

This is what I'm looking at. Dom's model says he's a -1 defensive rating too. Selke voting tends to come down to reputation and +/-. He was on a dominant line got too much Selke love, a few votes trickled in the next yrs too (reputation) and he likely never gets another Selke vote.

Edit: not sure if the images are coming through but just look at the jfresh models for Lindholm if they don't. They have him as 31st and 32nd percentile defensive rating for last yr and the yr before.


He'd easily be on PP1

Yeah. I'm pretty sure the GMs are going to go with the consensus of NHL insiders and experts who consistently vote for Lindholm for the Selke and not listen to you.

 

[Johnsie19]

Yeah. I'm pretty sure the GMs are going to go with the consensus of NHL insiders and experts who consistently vote for Lindholm for the Selke and not listen to you.

They're newspaper writers from Columbus Ohio and Newark New Jersey, none of them watch the Calgary Flames. They saw Calgary had a historically good line and poof Lindholm got votes. You can keep your head in the sand all you want but surely you notice the correlation between a guy with a defensive reputation winning the Selke when he has his best offensive yr. Ever wondered why that is? Cause the voters are schmucks who follow local teams. How could they possibly evaluate who plays good defensive hockey for a team that plays after they go to sleep. Sportscenter doesn't generally show defensive play.

Imagine a GM going "well all the data says he's below average defensively but look he had Selke votes in the past" haha. Jim Benning already got fired. Teams will do a deep dive. Lindholm has a ton of value but he's not an incredible defensive fwd.

 

[ImJustJokinen]

Lindholm has a much better long-term resume. He's also playing on a rebuilding team. Lindholm take every tough match up and remains one of the best two way centers in the league. Yes, him not playing at a 90 point pace anymore hurts his value though. The Flames aren't asking for 90 point value.

He barely crawled to ppg once with insanely talented linemates. 82 is certainly not 90, and he is not getting there again anyway. Why unnecessarily inflate his value?

Rebuilding or not, for who you are saying he is, he should be able to carry his linemates. Lindholm is a good, sometimes great player. But in the real world, Conroy most certainly accepts OP's package.

A (potentially) late first, B+ (A recently) prospect, and a player with upside who just scored a bunch last year is a great package. Even if Kuzmenko is half the player Canucks fans say he is, you are getting a 20 goal guy who has talent to play with the other young guys on the Flames.

 

[Deen]

He barely crawled to ppg once with insanely talented linemates. 82 is certainly not 90, and he is not getting there again anyway. Why unnecessarily inflate his value?

Rebuilding or not, for who you are saying he is, he should be able to carry his linemates. Lindholm is a good, sometimes great player. But in the real world, Conroy most certainly accepts OP's package.

A (potentially) late first, B+ (A recently) prospect, and a player with upside who just scored a bunch last year is a great package. Even if Kuzmenko is half the player Canucks fans say he is, you are getting a 20 goal guy who has talent to play with the other young guys on the Flames.

Lindholm could be a J.T. Miller in the right situation.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

He barely crawled to ppg once with insanely talented linemates. 82 is certainly not 90, and he is not getting there again anyway. Why unnecessarily inflate his value?

Rebuilding or not, for who you are saying he is, he should be able to carry his linemates. Lindholm is a good, sometimes great player. But in the real world, Conroy most certainly accepts OP's package.

A (potentially) late first, B+ (A recently) prospect, and a player with upside who just scored a bunch last year is a great package. Even if Kuzmenko is half the player Canucks fans say he is, you are getting a 20 goal guy who has talent to play with the other young guys on the Flames.

Wait - why is Lindholm "never getting there again", but Kuzmenko is a "player with upside"??

Personally, I'm not big on the offer...I think I prefer some of the other ones out there.

 

[RickyLafleur]

Now people are just making things up. He scored 39 goals last year, you don’t get to take that away from him because he is having a sophomore slump.

What did I make up exactly? I acknowledged that he scored 39 goals last year. That does not make him a consistant 39 goal scorer. This year canucks fans are trying to trade him for literally anything that they can get because he hasn't done jack shit this year despite being stapled to Pettersens wing for most of the year.

 

[Double Dion]

They're newspaper writers from Columbus Ohio and Newark New Jersey, none of them watch the Calgary Flames. They saw Calgary had a historically good line and poof Lindholm got votes. You can keep your head in the sand all you want but surely you notice the correlation between a guy with a defensive reputation winning the Selke when he has his best offensive yr. Ever wondered why that is? Cause the voters are schmucks who follow local teams. How could they possibly evaluate who plays good defensive hockey for a team that plays after they go to sleep. Sportscenter doesn't generally show defensive play.

Imagine a GM going "well all the data says he's below average defensively but look he had Selke votes in the past" haha. Jim Benning already got fired. Teams will do a deep dive. Lindholm has a ton of value but he's not an incredible defensive fwd.

What about the multiple NHL coaches who have compared him to Bergeron and Kopitar? Should we ignore their opinion too? What about the NHL rumor guys who have said he'll bring in a haul and is very highly regarded around the league? Should the NHL GMs they talk to be ignored too? Lindholm got lots of votes for the Selke last year too. He played with a 2nd line player and a 3rd liner.

 

[Cogburn]

Yeah. I'm pretty sure the GMs are going to go with the consensus of NHL insiders and experts who consistently vote for Lindholm for the Selke and not listen to you.

I use this argument when people call Pettersson and Miller "bad defensively" or something wholly bulls*** like that, so Lindholm can jump on that trailer too, theres plenty of room. A guy getting Selke votes means hes at least good defensively, especially if its a consistant stream. Who knows if Lindholm will WIN a Selke, but I'm sure as hell not calling him poor defensively either.

What did I make up exactly? I acknowledged that he scored 39 goals last year. That does not make him a consistant 39 goal scorer. This year canucks fans are trying to trade him for literally anything that they can get because he hasn't done jack shit this year despite being stapled to Pettersens wing for most of the year.

Hes still on pace for 20, thats not "jack shit". Also, he most certainly hasn't been stapled to Petterssons wing most of the year, hence the whole controversy.

 

[ImJustJokinen]

Now people are just making things up. He scored 39 goals last year, you don’t get to take that away from him because he is having a sophomore slump.

I’m the furthest thing from a flames fan, but I agree with that poster. If you do it once and are tracking to not even come close again, you’re more of a David Clarkson type player. Calling him a 39 goal scorer implies that he averages around that, not that he did it once. So yes, it is disingenuous.

The guy is also 28 in a few weeks, let’s not pretend he’s having some pro league sophomore slump like a D+2 player.

 

[oceanchild]

I’m the furthest thing from a flames fan, but I agree with that poster. If you do it once and are tracking to not even come close again, you’re more of a David Clarkson type player. Calling him a 39 goal scorer implies that he averages around that, not that he did it once. So yes, it is disingenuous.

The guy is also 28 in a few weeks, let’s not pretend he’s having some pro league sophomore slump like a D+2 player.

He is having a slump and his luck has swung, most importantly his role on the PP changed. He is a 30 goal guy IMO.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

He barely crawled to ppg once with insanely talented linemates. 82 is certainly not 90, and he is not getting there again anyway. Why unnecessarily inflate his value?

Rebuilding or not, for who you are saying he is, he should be able to carry his linemates. Lindholm is a good, sometimes great player. But in the real world, Conroy most certainly accepts OP's package.

A (potentially) late first, B+ (A recently) prospect, and a player with upside who just scored a bunch last year is a great package. Even if Kuzmenko is half the player Canucks fans say he is, you are getting a 20 goal guy who has talent to play with the other young guys on the Flames.

Put him in Boston with Pasta or NJ with Bratt/Meier or Toronto with Marner/Nylander and we'll see about that. I agree he is more of a 65-70 pt guy with easy 80 pt potential with the right linemates. He's proven that. He's also a beast on faceoffs and on both special teams.

I also agree this package is fair value for him. I think with a bidding war (based on how few other 2C's are available on the market right now) we might be able to get a higher-valued prospect. But I like Brzustowicz and would take this if Colorado won't offer Cal Ritchie or Carolina doesn't offer Scott Morrow for example.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

I watch him a fair bit. Canucks play Calgary all the time. I don't see a two way stud that you think. And the data back that up. He has many similarities to Horvat in fact. Great shot, great on the draw, and both had an unwarranted reputation as being good defensively when neither are.

I used 4 different models. It's not my job to break down the inner workings of each model. They're put together by data analysts to help show the general audience the value of players. If you think you know why specifically one of them is wrong in the case of Lindholm I'm open to that but you can't just claim the models are worthless because i haven't studied them personally.

Your argument is that writers on the other side of the country are going to know who's the best defensive player on a team they probably rarely if ever watch. The Selke is a reputational, narrative driven award.

In terms of value, OP isn't that far off really. It'll be something around what Horvat got. His value I think is slightly less than what Horvat's was last season (based on the season they were having in the trade yr) but return always comes down to need and negotiating prowess.

So 5 games a year? That's certainly less than most of the guys voting on the award that you classify as 'some local reporter from Columbus'. What are you then, some hockey forum poster from Vancouver?

Next, I'm curious what data you're looking at. You say you rely on 4 models, lets dig into the data.

From 2020-21 to 2022-23, out of the 235 C's in the league playing over 1000 total minutes, LIndholm was 16th in xGF%. He was 11th in GF%, and he was 22nd in SCF%.

He was 35th in xGA/60, better than guys like Danault and Cirelli who are known to be elite defensive C's. Better than Crosby, Hintz, and Barkov. And many of the guys in front of him are 3/4C's like Derek Ryan and PE Bellemare who play an entirely different role against other team's bottom-6.

From 2021-2024, if you want to include his down half year this year, he sits 33rd in xGF%, aead of guys like Crosby, Mackinnon, Erikson-Ek, O'Reilly, Danualt. His GF% is 13th, and here are the only players ahead of him: Bergeron, Trent Frederic, Matthews, Barkov, Perfetti, Mackinnon, Marner, Pavelski, Crosby, Hintz. Ahead of guys like Eichel, Eriksson-Ek, Danault, Cirelli, Point, Aho, etc.

That is the company Lindholm is in in terms of his two-way ability.

And then you consider that he is our #1 PK center and a clear top-PK center in the league. Out of all C’s playing over 300 PK mins since 2021, he sits 21st in the league in xGA/60. Ahead of Barkov, O’Reilly, Danault. And again, most of the guys ahead of him are bottom-6 PK specialists like Kampf and Jordan Staal. In GA/60 he is 15th in the league, ahead of O’Reilly, Nuge, Barkov, Danault again.

Then you consider his face-off percentage, which is 19th in the league for C’s taking over 1000 faceoffs since 2019. Ahead of guys like Crosby, Danault, Backlund, etc. Right underneath Barkov, O’Reilly, and Kopitar. This year again he’s 20th.

So please, tell me what data you’re looking at that supports any idea that he’s not an elite 2-way C? Andy and Rono’s model? (Lol). Dom’s model which just takes data from Evolving Hockey? Some relative xGAR RAPM numbers from Evolving Hockey?

Using models like that can be very useful to paint a complete picture of a player. For example, maybe Lindholm is in tough as the 1C with garbage linemates (Huberdeau and Dube last year, Huberdeau and Sharangovich this year) and is more ideally suited as an two-way 2C than a line-driving 1C. Or that he's better-suited playing with better players than carrying medicore linemates. Those would be fair arguments. But using these models as gospel instead of digging into the actual data and watching most of his games is just misleading. Especially when the data and eye test show a completely different story.

You can find all the advanced stats here:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

If you still think Lindholm isn't a top-10/20 two-way C in the league, please list guys ahead of him. I'm sure you'll list guys like Cirelli or Danault or Crosby, but the data doesn't suggest that. That's why, sometimes, you need to look beyond the raw data and use the eye-test to know that Crosby is a top 2-way C.

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

So 5 games a year? That's certainly less than most of the guys voting on the award that you classify as 'some local reporter from Columbus'. What are you then, some hockey forum poster from Vancouver?

Next, I'm curious what data you're looking at. You say you rely on 4 models, lets dig into the data.

From 2020-21 to 2022-23, out of the 235 C's in the league playing over 1000 total minutes, LIndholm was 16th in xGF%. He was 11th in GF%, and he was 22nd in SCF%.

He was 35th in xGA/60, better than guys like Danault and Cirelli who are known to be elite defensive C's. Better than Crosby, Hintz, and Barkov. And many of the guys in front of him are 3/4C's like Derek Ryan and PE Bellemare who play an entirely different role against other team's bottom-6.

From 2021-2024, if you want to include his down half year this year, he sits 33rd in xGF%, aead of guys like Crosby, Mackinnon, Erikson-Ek, O'Reilly, Danualt. His GF% is 13th, and here are the only players ahead of him: Bergeron, Trent Frederic, Matthews, Barkov, Perfetti, Mackinnon, Marner, Pavelski, Crosby, Hintz. Ahead of guys like Eichel, Eriksson-Ek, Danault, Cirelli, Point, Aho, etc.

That is the company Lindholm is in in terms of his two-way ability.

And then you consider that he is our #1 PK center and a clear top-PK center in the league. Out of all C’s playing over 300 PK mins since 2021, he sits 21st in the league in xGA/60. Ahead of Barkov, O’Reilly, Danault. And again, most of the guys ahead of him are bottom-6 PK specialists like Kampf and Jordan Staal. In GA/60 he is 15th in the league, ahead of O’Reilly, Nuge, Barkov, Danault again.

Then you consider his face-off percentage, which is 19th in the league for C’s taking over 1000 faceoffs since 2019. Ahead of guys like Crosby, Danault, Backlund, etc. Right underneath Barkov, O’Reilly, and Kopitar. This year again he’s 20th.

So please, tell me what data you’re looking at that supports any idea that he’s not an elite 2-way C? Andy and Rono’s model? (Lol). Dom’s model which just takes data from Evolving Hockey? Some relative xGAR RAPM numbers from Evolving Hockey?

Using models like that can be very useful to paint a complete picture of a player. For example, maybe Lindholm is in tough as the 1C with garbage linemates (Huberdeau and Dube last year, Huberdeau and Sharangovich this year) and is more ideally suited as an two-way 2C than a line-driving 1C. Or that he's better-suited playing with better players than carrying medicore linemates. Those would be fair arguments. But using these models as gospel instead of digging into the actual data and watching most of his games is just misleading. Especially when the data and eye test show a completely different story.

You can find all the advanced stats here:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

If you still think Lindholm isn't a top-10/20 two-way C in the league, please list guys ahead of him. I'm sure you'll list guys like Cirelli or Danault or Crosby, but the data doesn't suggest that. That's why, sometimes, you need to look beyond the raw data and use the eye-test to know that Crosby is a top 2-way C.

I take him over Horvat any day of the week. If he becomes available and he's open to staying, I really hope Alvin makes it so. The only pieces I don't want to move are Willander, Podkolzin, EP² and Raty.
Ideally the flames covet picks, not sure Brew is a fit but I wonder if a 1st, 2nd (2025) becomes a 1st if extended and something else a 3rd or a b prospect, Klimovich, Truscott, etc? I think Kuzmenko has excellent playmaking skills and Lindholms defensive accumen along with Mikayehev's could be a really good fit and produce enough to keep 06- 40-09 together. Also improves the PK and creates some intriguing options when a true shutdown line is needed.

 

[Johnsie19]

What about the multiple NHL coaches who have compared him to Bergeron and Kopitar? Should we ignore their opinion too? What about the NHL rumor guys who have said he'll bring in a haul and is very highly regarded around the league? Should the NHL GMs they talk to be ignored too? Lindholm got lots of votes for the Selke last year too. He played with a 2nd line player and a 3rd liner.

Had a look for that. I found two of his own coaches saying that. And that's not nothing. Also to be clear, according to the data he had one season with above average defensive results and that was the one he finished 2nd in Selke votes. He wasn't anywhere close to Selke worthy but he was above average. Every other season not so much.

I said literally in the post you are replying to that he is worth a lot. Something around what Horvat got would be excellent for the Flames. The OP offer is fair value.

I use this argument when people call Pettersson and Miller "bad defensively" or something wholly bulls*** like that, so Lindholm can jump on that trailer too, theres plenty of room. A guy getting Selke votes means hes at least good defensively, especially if its a consistant stream. Who knows if Lindholm will WIN a Selke, but I'm sure as hell not calling him poor defensively either.

I don't think anyone has ever said Pettersson is bad defensively. And Miller actually has been bad defensively for most of his career.

 

[Johnsie19]

So 5 games a year? That's certainly less than most of the guys voting on the award that you classify as 'some local reporter from Columbus'. What are you then, some hockey forum poster from Vancouver?

Next, I'm curious what data you're looking at. You say you rely on 4 models, lets dig into the data.

From 2020-21 to 2022-23, out of the 235 C's in the league playing over 1000 total minutes, LIndholm was 16th in xGF%. He was 11th in GF%, and he was 22nd in SCF%.

He was 35th in xGA/60, better than guys like Danault and Cirelli who are known to be elite defensive C's. Better than Crosby, Hintz, and Barkov. And many of the guys in front of him are 3/4C's like Derek Ryan and PE Bellemare who play an entirely different role against other team's bottom-6.

From 2021-2024, if you want to include his down half year this year, he sits 33rd in xGF%, aead of guys like Crosby, Mackinnon, Erikson-Ek, O'Reilly, Danualt. His GF% is 13th, and here are the only players ahead of him: Bergeron, Trent Frederic, Matthews, Barkov, Perfetti, Mackinnon, Marner, Pavelski, Crosby, Hintz. Ahead of guys like Eichel, Eriksson-Ek, Danault, Cirelli, Point, Aho, etc.

That is the company Lindholm is in in terms of his two-way ability.

And then you consider that he is our #1 PK center and a clear top-PK center in the league. Out of all C’s playing over 300 PK mins since 2021, he sits 21st in the league in xGA/60. Ahead of Barkov, O’Reilly, Danault. And again, most of the guys ahead of him are bottom-6 PK specialists like Kampf and Jordan Staal. In GA/60 he is 15th in the league, ahead of O’Reilly, Nuge, Barkov, Danault again.

Then you consider his face-off percentage, which is 19th in the league for C’s taking over 1000 faceoffs since 2019. Ahead of guys like Crosby, Danault, Backlund, etc. Right underneath Barkov, O’Reilly, and Kopitar. This year again he’s 20th.

So please, tell me what data you’re looking at that supports any idea that he’s not an elite 2-way C? Andy and Rono’s model? (Lol). Dom’s model which just takes data from Evolving Hockey? Some relative xGAR RAPM numbers from Evolving Hockey?

Using models like that can be very useful to paint a complete picture of a player. For example, maybe Lindholm is in tough as the 1C with garbage linemates (Huberdeau and Dube last year, Huberdeau and Sharangovich this year) and is more ideally suited as an two-way 2C than a line-driving 1C. Or that he's better-suited playing with better players than carrying medicore linemates. Those would be fair arguments. But using these models as gospel instead of digging into the actual data and watching most of his games is just misleading. Especially when the data and eye test show a completely different story.

You can find all the advanced stats here:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

If you still think Lindholm isn't a top-10/20 two-way C in the league, please list guys ahead of him. I'm sure you'll list guys like Cirelli or Danault or Crosby, but the data doesn't suggest that. That's why, sometimes, you need to look beyond the raw data and use the eye-test to know that Crosby is a top 2-way C.

To be clear, I'm not saying I'm the ultimate scouting expert. I'm saying the underlying numbers suggest he isn't a good defensive player. And that tracks decently with the moderate sample size I see of him each yr. Other than the sports writer for the Flames I bet the mean watched Flames games for these voters is less than 5 as it would be with any individual team. And even less for western teams.

The models I refer to are Dom's. Jfresh, Evolving hockey, and Andy Rono (these guys are far less reliable but nonetheless they back up the other 3 models here).

The data you shared is offensive data. Lindholm has been undeniably a good offensive player. Though not as much this season.

Ok so you know the data sets I used. Literally said I don't take them as gospel. Especially not individually. I do use them heavily when multiple sets line up. I don't think you need to watch Barkov 60+ games to understand his defensive ability. Why do I have to with Lindholm?

The link you sent (which I shared earlier) literally shows him as 32nd percentile for EV Defence.

This article by a Flames fan site is pretty good I'd say Should the Calgary Flames consider trading Elias Lindholm? - The Win Column

You can't possibly watch enough hockey to watch every player for 60+ games, so we have to rely on smaller sample sizes and data. Not to mention what your eyes see is different than the next persons.

 

[Double Dion]

Had a look for that. I found two of his own coaches saying that. And that's not nothing. Also to be clear, according to the data he had one season with above average defensive results and that was the one he finished 2nd in Selke votes. He wasn't anywhere close to Selke worthy but he was above average. Every other season not so much.

I said literally in the post you are replying to that he is worth a lot. Something around what Horvat got would be excellent for the Flames. The OP offer is fair value.


I don't think anyone has ever said Pettersson is bad defensively. And Miller actually has been bad defensively for most of his career.

Miller is not bad defensively. He's well above average. Lindholm is also good defensively. Is he Backlund, JEE, Danault good defensively? No, but he's an elite PKer and a good defensive C. The turd you keep trying to shine up in Kuzmenko is bad defensively. Huberdeau is bad defensively. Boeser is bad defensively. Miller and Lindholm aren't.

 

[Johnsie19]

Miller is not bad defensively. He's well above average. Lindholm is also good defensively. Is he Backlund, JEE, Danault good defensively? No, but he's an elite PKer and a good defensive C. The turd you keep trying to shine up in Kuzmenko is bad defensively. Huberdeau is bad defensively. Boeser is bad defensively. Miller and Lindholm aren't.

Miller has improved this yr but even at that he's just average. He was awful defensively the previous two seasons.

Ok we're making ground then. So he's not as good as the elite defensive fwds and yet he was a Selke finalist. So you have to admit the voting is not the answer. Its more wrong than advanced stat models lets just say that. Both can be misleading, beat writers voting on defensive hockey will be wrong far more often.

I haven't really been trying to shine up Kuzmenko at all. He's a good top 6 winger who can score. That is all.

How do you go about determining who you think is good or bad defensively?

 

[Double Dion]

Miller has improved this yr but even at that he's just average. He was awful defensively the previous two seasons.

Ok we're making ground then. So he's not as good as the elite defensive fwds and yet he was a Selke finalist. So you have to admit the voting is not the answer. Its more wrong than advanced stat models lets just say that. Both can be misleading, beat writers voting on defensive hockey will be wrong far more often.

I haven't really been trying to shine up Kuzmenko at all. He's a good top 6 winger who can score. That is all.

How do you go about determining who you think is good or bad defensively?

The Selke never goes to the top defensive forward. It goes to the top 2 way forward. Otherwise Backlund, JEE and Danault would steadily win it. Instead it goes to top 2 way guys. Like Lindholm, Barkov, Couturier and Kopitar.

Lindholm is a very good defensive C. He's not deployed at all like most #1 centers with heavy Ozone deployment. Is he Backlund? No, but he also scores you 20 more points.

 

[Johnsie19]

The Selke never goes to the top defensive forward. It goes to the top 2 way forward. Otherwise Backlund, JEE and Danault would steadily win it. Instead it goes to top 2 way guys. Like Lindholm, Barkov, Couturier and Kopitar.

Lindholm is a very good defensive C. He's not deployed at all like most #1 centers with heavy Ozone deployment. Is he Backlund? No, but he also scores you 20 more points.

You didn't answer my question. If you don't like advanced stat models how do you go about determining who is and isn't good defensively?

 

[RasmusAndersson]

To be clear, I'm not saying I'm the ultimate scouting expert. I'm saying the underlying numbers suggest he isn't a good defensive player. And that tracks decently with the moderate sample size I see of him each yr. Other than the sports writer for the Flames I bet the mean watched Flames games for these voters is less than 5 as it would be with any individual team. And even less for western teams.

The models I refer to are Dom's. Jfresh, Evolving hockey, and Andy Rono (these guys are far less reliable but nonetheless they back up the other 3 models here).

The data you shared is offensive data. Lindholm has been undeniably a good offensive player. Though not as much this season.

Ok so you know the data sets I used. Literally said I don't take them as gospel. Especially not individually. I do use them heavily when multiple sets line up. I don't think you need to watch Barkov 60+ games to understand his defensive ability. Why do I have to with Lindholm?

The link you sent (which I shared earlier) literally shows him as 32nd percentile for EV Defence.

This article by a Flames fan site is pretty good I'd say Should the Calgary Flames consider trading Elias Lindholm? - The Win Column

You can't possibly watch enough hockey to watch every player for 60+ games, so we have to rely on smaller sample sizes and data. Not to mention what your eyes see is different than the next persons.

The data i used was xGF%, GF%, SCF%, and then xGA/60. All of that is not offensive data—it includes both offensive and defensive impacts. And even in that article you sent, he is a top-20 two-way C based on all of that data. Is he a pure shutdown C like Mikael Backlund or Philip Danault? No he isn't. Those guys are better defensively, I agree. And EvolvingHockey's RAPM and Dom's model (which just uses EH and NautralStatTrick data) are definitely hard on him because he's in over his head trying to carry Huberdeau and one of Dube/Sharangovich the past 1.5 seasons, all of whom are below average (at best) defensive players. Look at how his numbers have changed drastically from 2018-2021 and 2021-23. So yes, his defensive numbers have taken a hit and even he can't put up good numbers carrying those one-dimensional guys. Only the Kopitar's/Crosby's/Bergeron's can do that, and I agree he isn't in that tier of elite defensive C.

But he's in that next tier of very good defensively and very good offensively. His leading role on the PK and his top-20 faceoff percentage over the last 3 years only reinforce this. I also agree he isn't a pure shutdown guy like Backlund, but he's more valuable because he's still very good defensively and is way way better offensively.

Here are the C's that imo are definitely better than him (in no order):

1. Tage Thompson
Aho
Bedard (soon)
Mackinnon
Larkin
Pavelski
McDavid
Leon
Barkov
10. Kopitar
Hintz (probably)
Hughes
Zibanejad
Stutzle
15. Crosby
Couturier
Eichel
Pettersson (when he's C)
JT Miller
20. Scheifele
Matthews
Point

Then Lindholm is firmly in that 22-27 range with probably Eriksson-Ek and Hischier and Danault and Horvat.

Of those other top-C's, there are probably about 5-10 that are better defensively/ two-way: Aho, Barkov, Kopitar, Crosby, Couturier, Point, and then maybe guys like Larkin, Hintz, Mackinnon, Zib, Pettersson?

And maybe one or two of them are as strong on the PK as Elias.

So while you're right he's not a top-5/10 pure defensive C, he is definitely a top-10/15 two-way top-6C and a top-25 overall C. And he has proven to be able to be that great two-way 1C or elite 2C with strong offensive wingers.

And saying he isn't good defensively is just misleading when he's a dominant two-way player who is great on the PK and faceoffs.

 

[Double Dion]

You didn't answer my question. If you don't like advanced stat models how do you go about determining who is and isn't good defensively?

It depends on the model. I don't like the JFresh xG model. I like to look at zone starts, quality of competition, who they are playing with primarily and how many high danger chances are being given up. It gives a much more accurate picture.

 

[Johnsie19]

The data i used was xGF%, GF%, SCF%, and then xGA/60. All of that is not offensive data—it includes both offensive and defensive impacts. And even in that article you sent, he is a top-20 two-way C based on all of that data. Is he a pure shutdown C like Mikael Backlund or Philip Danault? No he isn't. Those guys are better defensively, I agree. And EvolvingHockey's RAPM and Dom's model (which just uses EH and NautralStatTrick data) are definitely hard on him because he's in over his head trying to carry Huberdeau and one of Dube/Sharangovich the past 1.5 seasons, all of whom are below average (at best) defensive players. Look at how his numbers have changed drastically from 2018-2021 and 2021-23. So yes, his defensive numbers have taken a hit and even he can't put up good numbers carrying those one-dimensional guys. Only the Kopitar's/Crosby's/Bergeron's can do that, and I agree he isn't in that tier of elite defensive C.

But he's in that next tier of very good defensively and very good offensively. His leading role on the PK and his top-20 faceoff percentage over the last 3 years only reinforce this. I also agree he isn't a pure shutdown guy like Backlund, but he's more valuable because he's still very good defensively and is way way better offensively.

Here are the C's that imo are definitely better than him (in no order):

1. Tage Thompson
Aho
Bedard (soon)
Mackinnon
Larkin
Pavelski
McDavid
Leon
Barkov
10. Kopitar
Hintz (probably)
Hughes
Zibanejad
Stutzle
15. Crosby
Couturier
Eichel
Pettersson (when he's C)
JT Miller
20. Scheifele
Matthews
Point

Then Lindholm is firmly in that 22-27 range with probably Eriksson-Ek and Hischier and Danault and Horvat.

Of those other top-C's, there are probably about 5-10 that are better defensively/ two-way: Aho, Barkov, Kopitar, Crosby, Couturier, Point, and then maybe guys like Larkin, Hintz, Mackinnon, Zib, Pettersson?

And maybe one or two of them are as strong on the PK as Elias.

So while you're right he's not a top-5/10 pure defensive C, he is definitely a top-10/15 two-way top-6C and a top-25 overall C. And he has proven to be able to be that great two-way 1C or elite 2C with strong offensive wingers.

And saying he isn't good defensively is just misleading when he's a dominant two-way player who is great on the PK and faceoffs.

You can look at it in two ways. One is that Lindholm is carrying Huberdeau and Sharangovich. You can also look at it that Lindholm was on a dominant line with Tkachuk and Gaudreau that put up some crazy numbers. It'll do wonder for your xGF%, SCF% and the like when you play with two not only all stars but MVP candidates. Did Lindholm contribute to this line? Without question but he also finished what 30+ points behind Gaudreau and 20+ behind Tkachuk in their last yr. And now he's playing with Huberdeau and just can't seem to get it going despite Huberdeau having a history of success offensively.

So how good is he offensively? He's probably in the 60s kinda range guy who can breakout on a good line. He kills penalties and wins faceoffs. And his defensive rating according to EH is a -1.9 for his career. He's had two seasons where he had a significant impact defensively in his career. 2018-19 (2.1) and 21-22 (3). Backlund is a +25 on that same site for his career. I honestly don't know how to parse that with what you are arguing. Especially because every other guy I look into who has a strong defensive reputations shows well in these stats.

You look at the offensive and defensive ratings of a guy like Horvat leading up to the trade last yr vs Lindhom's last couple yrs and Horvat is slightly worse defensively and almost twice as good offensively. So that suggests to me Horvat should have more value. That said I think Lindholm has a stronger reputation then his current results and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets slightly more than Horvat got but I'd expect it to be slightly less.

 

[Mrb1p]

Habs do Monahan and Matheson for Brz and a 1st, you get to keep the young russian and have a true cup run.

 

[oceanchild]

Habs do Monahan and Matheson for Brz and a 1st, you get to keep the young russian and have a true cup run.

Pass, I don’t want to give that up for Monahan. Maybe a second, but even that I don’t like.

 

[Mrb1p]

Pass, I don’t want to give that up for Monahan. Maybe a second, but even that I don’t like.

Monahan and Matheson *

It gives you a lot of depth on LD, and it gives you 2nd pair offensive production. We could take Myers back without much problems, probably even retain on Monahan, though that would be very little.

I mean, sure you don't get Lindholm, but Monahan has been healthy and retaining a winger such as Kuzy gives the Canucks A LOT of depth to score. You'd basically get a first line and either one really good 2nd line with 2 3B lines or 3 2B lines, thats a good way to win in the NHL.