Proposal: Lindholm to Canucks for Hunter Brustewicz +

[Peter Griffin]

Just to be clear, the difference in $64M in Nashville vs. Vancouver, using CapFriendly's tax calculator, is about $5.5M.

So, according to you, taxes amounting to a $5.5M difference is a big deal to athletes, but when it comes to a $2.5M difference is a complete non-factor.

Just making sure I've got this right... I'm thinking money is money and it matters no matter what.

What you’re failing to register is that $5.5M in tax is completely lost, poof, nothing to show for it. $2.5M difference in property value isn’t, unless you expect that market to completely tank. You’ll get that money back, and likely more when you decide to sell and move on. That $2.5M difference(if it even is that) isn’t going to put most professional athletes in the poor house. When talking about a guy that will be expected to have earnings of close to $100M when his career is over the cost of living in various cities is going to be marginal compared to many other factors.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Disagree.

Even to Joe Average like me , I prioritize quality of life more than cost of living.

Yes I can live in Alberta and buy a house for 400K but id rather choose a quality of life that i enjoy more for myself.
Albertans might say their quality of life is better, to each their own.

My point is, if an Average Joe like me choose quality of life over cost of living, then i imagine any generational millionaire would also make the same choice with less stress about money.

Each NHLer will have their own vision and threshhold for their definition of quality of life and i think thats their number 1 priority when signing a contract like this. I doubt they even consider cost of living or taxes or market value in their top 3 list of priorities.

1. Quality of life
2. Chance to win
3. Environment for kids and family

It was already pointed out any difference in quality of life in Nashville versus Vancouver for the elite economic class is essentially non-existent. Both cities are pretty in-demand.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

What you’re failing to register is that $5.5M in tax is completely lost, poof, nothing to show for it. $2.5M difference in property value isn’t, unless you expect that market to completely tank. You’ll get that money back, and likely more when you decide to sell and move on. That $2.5M difference(if it even is that) isn’t going to put most professional athletes in the poor house. When talking about a guy that will be expected to have earnings of close to $100M when his career is over the cost of living in various cities is going to be marginal compared to many other factors.

This was literally already addressed as a negligible point...

You do realize that pointing out it's an investment "In most areas of the world" just acknowledges that you're likely to see growth in both areas, right?

So yes, growth in both Nashville and Vancouver cancels each other out and doesn't account for:

1. Nashville being way more bang for your buck.
2. Nashville having no state income tax.
3. Nashville having way more favorable weather.

You seem to think that Vancouver is the only housing market that's going to grow.

 

[UrbanImpact]

It was already pointed out any difference in quality of life in Nashville versus Vancouver for the elite economic class is essentially non-existent. Both cities are pretty in-demand.

I wasnt talking about Van vs Nashville. Was just discussing priorities for millionaires when it comes to free agency.

When it comes to Nash vs Van i guess it just depends on which one you like better

1. Night Life, Country Music, Great Food, USA
2. Mountains, Ocean, Lakes, Canada

 

[Peter Griffin]

This was literally already addressed as a negligible point...

No it wasn’t. My point was that $2.5M difference isn’t lost money, like taxes.

You seem to think that Vancouver is the only housing market that's going to grow.

Never suggested that at all. What I’ve continually suggested is that you aren’t likely to lose money on your property purchase in either city.

The difference in property values isn’t going to affect the majority of athletes and you’re likely to get that initial investment, and then some, in most cities.

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

Lindholm​

43

8

20

28

17

-4

Hot garbage.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

No it wasn’t. My point was that $2.5M difference isn’t lost money, like taxes.




Never suggested that at all. What I’ve continually suggested is that you aren’t likely to lose money on your property purchase in either city.

The difference in property values isn’t going to affect the majority of athletes and you’re likely to get that initial investment, and then some, in most cities.

When was it ever suggested that you were going to lose money on a property purchase.

The point, the entire time, has been that you can get the same amount of house in other desirable locations for a fraction of the cost.

 

[Peter Griffin]

When was it ever suggested that you were going to lose money on a property purchase.

The point, the entire time, has been that you can get the same amount of house in other desirable locations for a fraction of the cost.

Because if you’re a guy signing a $64M contract, that difference in cost isn’t going to make a lick of difference your quality of life. And if you’re not losing any money on the investment, why does it matter?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Because if you’re a guy signing a $64M contract, that difference in cost isn’t going to make a lick of difference your quality of life. And if you’re not losing any money on the investment, why does it matter?

Go ahead and put the $2.5M you'd save from your proposed Vancouver house cost versus Nashville house cost comparison in any decent market investment for 8 years and tell me what happens to it...

Yes. You absolutely lose money.

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

+/- doesn't tell the whole story. He's getting 76% offensive zone starts this year. Likely means he's not getting any tough match ups.

Kuzmenko also has 16 career hits in 116 games.

So he doesn't play the boards, forecheck, hit, or play in the defensive zone....but somehow he's an all around great player?

Sorry, this guy isn't going to jive with the Flames system in any way.

Kuzmenko is fine defensively. Smart player. And LMAO at protecting such a rock solid "system".

Lindholm is absolutely shitting the bed this year, being given every opportunity to and has brought down his line mates so badly, it stands to reason he's one of the main catalysts for the Flames lack of success this year.

Even though I have watched a ton of him, we can play your "i've only looked at his stat line game" too. Lindholm's PP60 is 1.88

To put that in perspective, he's floating around guys like Jason Zucker. (Kuzmenko is 2.47)

As much as he has had a good career, there is zero indication Allvin would trade one of his first big draft hits and a 1st for a guy that doesn't meet the analytics that's driven his last moves.

Terrible move to pay peak rate for a significantly diminished asset. lol.. buddy is in a contract year and he's playing like this. Sounds like the guy we want in clutch situations.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Go ahead and put the $2.5M you'd save from your proposed Vancouver house cost versus Nashville house cost comparison in any decent market investment for 8 years and tell me what happens to it...

Yes. You absolutely lose money.

A good conventional ROI is about 7%. The Vancouver real estate market is growing at about 7%.

BTW, this is all based on completely pulled out of thin air real estate numbers. Any one of these scenarios could easily involve a player renting a property instead of purchasing at a completely marginal difference for a multimillionaire athlete.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

A good conventional ROI is about 7%. The Vancouver real estate market is growing at about 7%.

BTW, this is all based on completely pulled out of thin air real estate numbers. Any one of these scenarios could easily involve a player renting a property instead of purchasing at a completely marginal difference for a multimillionaire athlete.

S&P500 has averaged 10.5% over the last 100 years.

I guess keep taking more swings at explaining how Vancouver housing prices versus elsewhere is no big deal? That one ain't working.

 

[Peter Griffin]

S&P500 has averaged 10.5% over the last 100 years.

I guess keep taking more swings at explaining how Vancouver housing prices versus elsewhere is no big deal? That one ain't working.

That ROI is still less than the difference of tax rate though. I thought you said taxes weren’t even the issue, it was the “ungodly cost of living”?

And like I said, they can also rent a place for 6 months of the year like many players do and invest that entire $5M if they wanted.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Kuzmenko is fine defensively. Smart player. And LMAO at protecting such a rock solid "system".

Lindholm is absolutely shitting the bed this year, being given every opportunity to and has brought down his line mates so badly, it stands to reason he's one of the main catalysts for the Flames lack of success this year.

Even though I have watched a ton of him, we can play your "i've only looked at his stat line game" too. Lindholm's PP60 is 1.88

To put that in perspective, he's floating around guys like Jason Zucker. (Kuzmenko is 2.47)

As much as he has had a good career, there is zero indication Allvin would trade one of his first big draft hits and a 1st for a guy that doesn't meet the analytics that's driven his last moves.

Terrible move to pay peak rate for a significantly diminished asset. lol.. buddy is in a contract year and he's playing like this. Sounds like the guy we want in clutch situations.

You'd think a Canucks fan would understand the concept of 'down year' as well as anyone... Guess not

It's almost like our entire PP is struggling terribly and Lindholm being tied to Huberdeau at 5v5 has really hurt him.

Lol 'as much as he's had a good career...' as if a 40-game sample undermines his reputation as a high-end 2C who has proven to produce with scoring wingers.

Flames fans understand we won't be getting a huge return for him cause he's a rental. But 1st+B prospect+cap dump is nothing crazy lol we could get that from you or from a number of other teams that will be looking for the top available C on the trade market.

 

[FerrisRox]

The Canucks are trading this year's Kuzmenko who is a 28 year old, 20 goal/40 point scorer signed for this year and next at $5.5 million. He offers nothing to the Flames rebuild, and the owners aren't just going to throw away $7ish million dollars. He also has a full NMC/NTC. He's likely not accepting this trade.

You seem to rather conveniently be forgetting that the Canucks are also trading for this year's Lindholm as well.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

You can look at it in two ways. One is that Lindholm is carrying Huberdeau and Sharangovich. You can also look at it that Lindholm was on a dominant line with Tkachuk and Gaudreau that put up some crazy numbers. It'll do wonder for your xGF%, SCF% and the like when you play with two not only all stars but MVP candidates. Did Lindholm contribute to this line? Without question but he also finished what 30+ points behind Gaudreau and 20+ behind Tkachuk in their last yr. And now he's playing with Huberdeau and just can't seem to get it going despite Huberdeau having a history of success offensively.

So how good is he offensively? He's probably in the 60s kinda range guy who can breakout on a good line. He kills penalties and wins faceoffs. And his defensive rating according to EH is a -1.9 for his career. He's had two seasons where he had a significant impact defensively in his career. 2018-19 (2.1) and 21-22 (3). Backlund is a +25 on that same site for his career. I honestly don't know how to parse that with what you are arguing. Especially because every other guy I look into who has a strong defensive reputations shows well in these stats.

You look at the offensive and defensive ratings of a guy like Horvat leading up to the trade last yr vs Lindhom's last couple yrs and Horvat is slightly worse defensively and almost twice as good offensively. So that suggests to me Horvat should have more value. That said I think Lindholm has a stronger reputation then his current results and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets slightly more than Horvat got but I'd expect it to be slightly less.

So looking at it in those two ways, we agree the takeaway is that he'll be a point-per-game 1C with elite two-way numbers (xGF% and SCF%) if you put him with 1st line wingers? But that he can't maintain those elite numbers when playing with garbage linemates but still puts up ~60 points while being our #1 PK an face-off C? Sounds reasonable.

Just funny to see you try to summarize his entire defensive value in one number from EH while choosing to ignore the elite two-way xGF% and SCF% and GF% numbers he put up over a three-year sample. We can agree he isn't that elite pure defensive guy like Backlund. Instead, he's a quality two-way guy who can be the defensively responsible one with offensive-minded 1st line wingers. His defensive numbers won't wow you in isolation, but his overall impact at both ends (like finishing top-20 among all C's in xGF%, SCF%, and GF% from 2020-2023), in addition to his big role on the PK and PP, makes him a very valuable top-6 RHC.

I think we agree his value is very similar to Horvat and that he can be a high-end 2C or low-end 1C. So this offer is fair value. You might not wanna pay it, but a 1st+B prospect+cap dump isn't some crazy price for the top rental on the trade market. We'll easily find a similar offer from a Colorado or Vegas or actual contender that is willing to sacrifice futures to win this year.

 

[HighLifeMan]

It's almost like our entire PP is struggling terribly and Lindholm being tied to Huberdeau at 5v5 has really hurt him.

Being "tied" to Huberdeau is not what is hurting Lindholm. Lindholm is hurting Lindholm. We all know he hasn't been good at all this year, and there is really no need to pretend otherwise. Lindholm doesn't have a positive xGF% at five on five with ANY player on the roster, and across the board these players see their numbers approve away from him.

With that said, you are right. It's 40 games, and GM's would be absolutely braindead to overlook the player he has proven to be previously. This is a player who clearly has one foot out of the door here, and no real on ice chemistry with any forward on the team.

I think your assessment of his value is bang on regardless of his play this year. He's a significantly better player than this 40 game stretch has shown us.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

That ROI is still less than the difference of tax rate though. I thought you said taxes weren’t even the issue, it was the “ungodly cost of living”?

And like I said, they can also rent a place for 6 months of the year like many players do and invest that entire $5M if they wanted.

When you're paying twice to three times as much to live in Vancouver? Yeah, it absolutely is lol.

It's cool dude. We'll forward this thread to Lindholm so you can sell him on how paying out the ass to live in Vancouver is no big deal and he should sign that $~50M contract on the dotted line.

 

[Peter Griffin]

When you're paying twice to three times as much to live in Vancouver? Yeah, it absolutely is lol.

Well actually, no it isn’t, as you even proved yourself earlier. $5.5M difference in taxes, compared to what, a couple million at best? Likely a lot less for most situations. Yea, taxes play a MUCH bigger difference.

It's cool dude. We'll forward this thread to Lindholm so you can sell him on how paying out the ass to live in Vancouver is no big deal and he should sign that $~50M contract on the dotted line.

I never suggested anything about a $50M contract for Lindholm but keep clutching that strawman if it helps you feel you “won” something here.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Well actually, no it isn’t, as you even proved yourself earlier. $5.5M difference in taxes, compared to what, a couple million at best? Likely a lot less for most situations. Yea, taxes play a MUCH bigger difference.


I never suggested anything about a $50M contract for Lindholm but keep clutching that strawman if it helps you feel you “won” something here.

How about you track the conversation? This whole thing started over the suggestion that he'd extend in Vancouver for 7 x $7.5M...

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Being "tied" to Huberdeau is not what is hurting Lindholm. Lindholm is hurting Lindholm. We all know he hasn't been good at all this year, and there is really no need to pretend otherwise. Lindholm doesn't have a positive xGF% at five on five with ANY player on the roster, and across the board these players see their numbers approve away from him.

With that said, you are right. It's 40 games, and GM's would be absolutely braindead to overlook the player he has proven to be previously. This is a player who clearly has one foot out of the door here, and no real on ice chemistry with any forward on the team.

I think your assessment of his value is bang on regardless of his play this year. He's a significantly better player than this 40 game stretch has shown us.

That’s fair. I agree Lindholm was bad regardless of who he played with for the first 25ish games, but I still think playing with a struggling Huberdeau exacerbated the bad start and dragged Lindholm’s numbers down even further.



Huberdeau, like most offensive wingers, relies heavily on his line-mates defensively (Huberdeau is rarely gonna be the first man back in transition and he’s never gonna help out that much around the net/down low in the D zone). But Huberdreau also relies on his C’s for leading transitions/zone entries and establishing possession in the O zone. I don’t think Lindholm is well-suited to do both. When he played with Gaudreau it was perfect because Lindholm could focus on the defensive responsibilities and then just worry about getting open in the offensive zone to use his great shot while Gaudreau gained the zone and/or led the transition attack.



Not to say Lindholm needs a Gaudreau-level player to be successful, but he’s better suited to play with a speedy offensive winger who can lead transition as opposed to a cerebral winger like Huberdeau. That will unlock his 80 pt potential. Someone like a Bratt or Necas or Nylander/Marner for example would be a great fit. Or Petersson. I could also see Garland being a good fit based on play style.



That said, Lindholm definitely seemed off to start the year but he (and Huberdeau) have seemed much more dynamic in the past 10ish games. And totally agreed with you that the first 25-30 games of this year won’t impact Lindholm’s value like some here think it does. Put him with that high-end offensive winger and you have a 70-80 pt two-way C in his prime that you happily put out there in the final minute whether you’re leading, trailing, or tied. That’s easily 1st+B prospect+ territory.

 

[Peter Griffin]

How about you track the conversation? This whole thing started over the suggestion that he'd extend in Vancouver for 7 x $7.5M...

Nope. My conversation with you started while responding to this comment:

Yep. And taxes aren't even the problem. Cost of living is ungodly.

Seems to me you’re clearly indicating that the horrendous cost of living is the reason, and not taxes, that a player would choose a different location over Vancouver.

I don’t think Lindholm would sign here for $50M and never suggested it.

I’ve wasted enough time on you. Respond how ever you like.

 

[Johnsie19]

So looking at it in those two ways, we agree the takeaway is that he'll be a point-per-game 1C with elite two-way numbers (xGF% and SCF%) if you put him with 1st line wingers? But that he can't maintain those elite numbers when playing with garbage linemates but still puts up ~60 points while being our #1 PK an face-off C? Sounds reasonable.

Just funny to see you try to summarize his entire defensive value in one number from EH while choosing to ignore the elite two-way xGF% and SCF% and GF% numbers he put up over a three-year sample. We can agree he isn't that elite pure defensive guy like Backlund. Instead, he's a quality two-way guy who can be the defensively responsible one with offensive-minded 1st line wingers. His defensive numbers won't wow you in isolation, but his overall impact at both ends (like finishing top-20 among all C's in xGF%, SCF%, and GF% from 2020-2023), in addition to his big role on the PK and PP, makes him a very valuable top-6 RHC.

I think we agree his value is very similar to Horvat and that he can be a high-end 2C or low-end 1C. So this offer is fair value. You might not wanna pay it, but a 1st+B prospect+cap dump isn't some crazy price for the top rental on the trade market. We'll easily find a similar offer from a Colorado or Vegas or actual contender that is willing to sacrifice futures to win this year.

Well part of the problem is he wont be a 1c on any team that acquires him. And with diminished opportunity will come diminished offensive number (I would strongly suspect). The garbage winger you are talking about literally set an NHL record for assists by a Left Winger the season before he arrived on Lindholm's line and had a long history of success in the league. So that isn't a good sign.

I am curious how anyone manages to get positive defensive metrics considering by your standard most of league would have to carry their linemates. Could there be a situation where your linemates are just awful? maybe but not even when your linemates are great do you put up great defensive numbers then ya you aren't a defensive stud. Nonetheless we agree the value is gonna be pretty good. And I agree he is a low level 1c or higher end 2c. But I think that is trending more towards 2c. And definitely he isn't a top 10 center and Selke candidate they made out he was a yr or two ago.

I literally said I took multiple data sets. You're using a 3 yr period excluding this yr and most of last. Why? I think we know why. That data just tells us Gaudreau and Tkachuk (and to a less extent Lindholm) were incredible and the line had a ton of offensive success which by proxy means the other team is not in your end.

I have said the offer is fair and am pushing back on you because you acted like it was a bad offer and Kuzmenko is a what...a turd. Also the B prospect looks like one of the steals of the draft. There is good value there too. The only reason Kuzmenko is available is because he's struggling currently and the rest of the team is playing so well. If you wanted Kuzmenko this summer the price would have likely been approaching Lindholm's value.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Well part of the problem is he wont be a 1c on any team that acquires him. And with diminished opportunity will come diminished offensive number (I would strongly suspect). The garbage winger you are talking about literally set an NHL record for assists by a Left Winger the season before he arrived on Lindholm's line and had a long history of success in the league. So that isn't a good sign.

I am curious how anyone manages to get positive defensive metrics considering by your standard most of league would have to carry their linemates. Could there be a situation where your linemates are just awful? maybe but not even when your linemates are great do you put up great defensive numbers then ya you aren't a defensive stud. Nonetheless we agree the value is gonna be pretty good. And I agree he is a low level 1c or higher end 2c. But I think that is trending more towards 2c. And definitely he isn't a top 10 center and Selke candidate they made out he was a yr or two ago.

I literally said I took multiple data sets. You're using a 3 yr period excluding this yr and most of last. Why? I think we know why. That data just tells us Gaudreau and Tkachuk (and to a less extent Lindholm) were incredible and the line had a ton of offensive success which by proxy means the other team is not in your end.

I have said the offer is fair and am pushing back on you because you acted like it was a bad offer and Kuzmenko is a what...a turd. Also the B prospect looks like one of the steals of the draft. There is good value there too. The only reason Kuzmenko is available is because he's struggling currently and the rest of the team is playing so well. If you wanted Kuzmenko this summer the price would have likely been approaching Lindholm's value.

We agree on his value and role then. He’s still a consistent Selke candidate tho cause he is a top-15/20 two-way C. If it just went to the top defensive C it would go to guys like Backlund and Danault each year, but instead it goes to the best two-way guys. And I listed that top-20 two-way C’s a few posts ago and Lindholm is right in there.

And Huberdeau just doesn’t fit here, although he’s playing better lately. But just watch a few Flames’s games from earlier in the year and you’ll see Huberdeau drags down all his linemates, not just Lindholm lol.

Overall we agree he’s an ideal 2C, but put him with a guy like Bratt or Necas or Marner/Nylander and he’s giving you 1C production. Those are linemates he wouldn’t need to carry (like Huberdeau) and also wouldn’t carry him. That’s all I’m trying to say. Not that he’s the best defensive C or a Kopitar in his prime level Shutdown C.

And I don’t think Kuzmenko is trash, he just doesn’t have value lol. We have our own version of Kuzmenko in Mangiapane. Scored 35 two years ago, we overpaid him, and now he’s a 40-50 pt middle-6 winger making 5.8 mil with little trade value even though he’s still a good player. And Mang is actually good on the PK and defensively unlike Kuzmenko although less offensive upside. It’s just a reality that those guys have little value in a cap world where C’s and RHD are at such a premium

 

[Johnsie19]

We agree on his value and role then. He’s still a consistent Selke candidate tho cause he is a top-15/20 two-way C. If it just went to the top defensive C it would go to guys like Backlund and Danault each year, but instead it goes to the best two-way guys. And I listed that top-20 two-way C’s a few posts ago and Lindholm is right in there.

And Huberdeau just doesn’t fit here, although he’s playing better lately. But just watch a few Flames’s games from earlier in the year and you’ll see Huberdeau drags down all his linemates, not just Lindholm lol.

Overall we agree he’s an ideal 2C, but put him with a guy like Bratt or Necas or Marner/Nylander and he’s giving you 1C production. Those are linemates he wouldn’t need to carry (like Huberdeau) and also wouldn’t carry him. That’s all I’m trying to say. Not that he’s the best defensive C or a Kopitar in his prime level Shutdown C.

And I don’t think Kuzmenko is trash, he just doesn’t have value lol. We have our own version of Kuzmenko in Mangiapane. Scored 35 two years ago, we overpaid him, and now he’s a 40-50 pt middle-6 winger making 5.8 mil with little trade value even though he’s still a good player. And Mang is actually good on the PK and defensively unlike Kuzmenko although less offensive upside. It’s just a reality that those guys have little value in a cap world where C’s and RHD are at such a premium

We don't agree that he is a Selke type defensive player. Despite having have had votes. I doubt he ever gets another vote. Not that votes mean a whole lot as we've been over.

So essentially Lindholm does not drive a line. If you can't play with Huberdeau and produce offensively that is a bit problematic in my eyes.

Just think of Kuzmenko as a 2nd round pick. You almost always have to take back salary in trades these days. Getting a guy like Kuzmenko who could easily score 30 goals next season and fetch a 1st plus is a good value proposition for incoming salary in a trade (for a rental no less).