Confirmed with Link: Lightning sign Jake Guentzel | 7 years, $9M AAV

[PaulGG]

It is really sad and somewhat surprising to see Stammer go since he said he really wanted to be a Bolt for life. He will go to some crappy team to finish out which is too bad because with moves we made he could stay and compete for another cup.

 

[J T Money]

I don’t see us being cup contenders unless we also bring Stamkos back…otherwise this just makes us marginally better. (Also, dump Sheary for f***s sake).

 

[Bartleby]

I'm in the camp of we got better but only by a little. We still need to make something happen to bring more scoring depth.

A lot of noisy deck shuffling and headlines, but without 2) MUCH better team D, 3) more depth scoring and the big NUMBER 1), a resurgent Vasy, none of this will make much of difference. And yes, I understand that 2 and 1 go together, but the folks who think that all of Vasy's problems were because of the D in front of him are kidding themselves. He has to be much better in his own right.

 

[Maelmoor]

I'm excited, it should improve our 5vs5 game! Cap is as expected, not a bargain but something I can lice with.

 

[Rschmitz]

Repeating everyone elses sentiment, we are only marginally better if we don't bring Stamkos back.

 

[Stammertime91]

Repeating everyone elses sentiment, we are only marginally better if we don't bring Stamkos back.

Agreed. As of now... if he rounds out the bottom six, we'll be a better team than last season by a good stretch but it still leaves us with a hole in the top 6 though. That's quite the hole considering you could fill it with a 30 goal guy in Stamkos... bold move cotton.

 

[Rschmitz]

Is Guentzel replacing Stamkos on the PP too?

Guentzel had 5g 22 points
Stamkos had 19g 39 points

Substantial drop in production

Gotta imagine it's his if Stamkos leaves

 

[Flat Ronnie]

I know the term had to be there to get the deal done, but that 9M a year is gonna look brutal in 4-5 years. We don't even want to pay Stamkos 4M at age 34 lol

 

[Hoek]

Fair deal, the question is how we round out the top 6 now.

 

[Stammertime91]

I know the term had to be there to get the deal done, but that 9M a year is gonna look brutal in 4-5 years. We don't even want to pay Stamkos 4M at age 34 lol

This is kind of the absurd part of contracts. On one hand, a player turns 30 and suddenly he's lost his legs, is worth half what he was when he was 29, etc. You sign a guy in his prime to his years where there's decline. So 9M at 34-37 is THREE TIMES the AAV we are offering Stamkos. On the other hand, you'd never get Guentzel at 9M X 4 years for example, but you also don't get Stamkos at 3M either at 34 years old.

Sure, the cap will go up but that point works for Stamkos too. I don't understand why we have lowballed a top 6 player all emotions and history aside. Who thinks we'd get JAM for 4M? Or 5M? Because that's audacious. JBB is out of his f***ing mind with this situation tbh. I get not wanting to pay him 6M if that's people's cut off, but not offering 4.5M at max let's say, is just crazy. Flat out.

 

[Stammertime91]

I guess what I'm saying too, is that for a player, you're better off with mid term deals until you're 29 or 30 because GMs hand out term like candy during Halloween. If you're mid 20s, you seriously shorthand yourself because if you're on an expiring contract that lands in your early to mid 30s, a GM might say no thanks. This is a great example.

 

[DFC]

Is Guentzel replacing Stamkos on the PP too?

Guentzel had 5g 22 points
Stamkos had 19g 39 points

Substantial drop in production

Gotta imagine it's his if Stamkos leaves

I mean, yeah, but one of those guys got to play with Kucherov. We have seen the PP be lethal without Stamkos.

Still, it's marginally better. You have to assume we will use the rest of the space, so we will see how it shakes out.

 

[AHockeyFanatic]

A lot of noisy deck shuffling and headlines, but without 2) MUCH better team D, 3) more depth scoring and the big NUMBER 1), a resurgent Vasy, none of this will make much of difference. And yes, I understand that 2 and 1 go together, but the folks who think that all of Vasy's problems were because of the D in front of him are kidding themselves. He has to be much better in his own right.

We just picked up a #1 Left Winger, some of you will never be happy. The team is already better by their defensive moves, for how long who knows but the team is better. Vasy needs to be better, but I strongly disagree with the take that these moves are just "headlines" and don't mean anything for this years team, which is what you're implying.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1807766360069456337

 

[Felonious Python]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1807787382818664696

 

[DFC]

I know the term had to be there to get the deal done, but that 9M a year is gonna look brutal in 4-5 years. We don't even want to pay Stamkos 4M at age 34 lol

I agree on the last point. It still seems insane to me to let Stamkos walk when he's willing to stay for a couple of bags of cheetos.

There are a lot of reasons not to worry about 4-5 years down the line. We would need a miracle to find replacements for our top guys by then. So it's like worrying about winter when the apolypse is coming in June. But also, even though we have seen the cap stagnate, I think if you're too cautious about the cap rising, you're just not gonna be competitive in the market. Cap will be well over 100m in 5 years. (Projected to be 98ish two years from now.) We can't expect JBB to operate from a stagnant cap mindset.

That makes letting Stamkos walk look even worse though.

 

[Felonious Python]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1807786208673534318

 

[Outl4w]

I don’t see us being cup contenders unless we also bring Stamkos back…otherwise this just makes us marginally better. (Also, dump Sheary for f***s sake).

My ideal lineup would be Stamkos, some like Mantha on the cheap to prove themselves again, and a bottom 6 forward with size and grit on the cheap like Raddysh etc
Guentzal Point Kucherov
Hagel Stamkos Mantha
Paul Cirelli Essymont
Motte Glendenning Raddysh/Chaffee
Extra AHL callup league minimum

 

[Stammertime91]

My ideal lineup would be Stamkos, some like Mantha on the cheap to prove themselves again, and a bottom 6 forward with size and grit on the cheap like Raddysh etc
Guentzal Point Kucherov
Hagel Stamkos Mantha
Paul Cirelli Essymont
Motte Glendenning Raddysh/Chaffee
Extra AHL callup league minimum

I've always heard Mantha has a shit mindset and quits on plays. He seems to score against us quite a bit, but apart from that and size, I'm not really sold on him.

 

[Felonious Python]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1807790205694357919

Jake Guentzel Introductory Press Conference

New Lightning forward Jake Guentzel meets with the media for the first time after signing a seven-year contract with Tampa Bay. Watch and stream Lightning ga...

www.youtube.com

 

[Outl4w]

Exactly what i said on the cheap.

I've always heard Mantha has a shit mindset and quits on plays. He seems to score against us quite a bit, but apart from that and size, I'm not really sold on him.

 

[DFC]

We just picked up a #1 Left Winger, some of you will never be happy. The team is already better by their defensive moves, for how long who knows but the team is better. Vasy needs to be better, but I strongly disagree with the take that these moves are just "headlines" and don't mean anything for this years team, which is what you're implying.

I mean... we're losing Stamkos. So we picked up a #1 winger whose best season was roughly what Stamkos just did.

I like the Guentzel signing a lot. And yeah, in general, he's a better player than Stamkos. But this only makes us a little better than last year so far.

 

[Stammertime91]

I mean... we're losing Stamkos. So we picked up a #1 winger whose best season was roughly what Stamkos just did.

I like the Guentzel signing a lot. And yeah, in general, he's a better player than Stamkos. But this only makes us a little better than last year so far.

I see both sides, obviously favor bringing back Stamkos but we have over 7M to work with. I'd like to see what happens. As of right now, we are a better team by a good stretch. Our issue was defense and you could say we bolstered it with two top 4 defenseman. Guenztel helps 5v5 but the issue is still one legit top 6 hole and a change to the PP.

 

[RMF5630]

I see both sides, obviously favor bringing back Stamkos but we have over 7M to work with. I'd like to see what happens. As of right now, we are a better team by a good stretch. Our issue was defense and you could say we bolstered it with two top 4 defenseman. Guenztel helps 5v5 but the issue is still one legit top 6 hole and a change to the PP.

I have to believe it is more about the structure than the money. Next 2 years cap rises significantly. If Stamkos wants to stay I would bet there is a lucrative avenue for him to get it done. I think he wants to explore FA and specifically see what Yzerman offers in DET.

Evolving Hockey are projecting a 4 year 32 million for Stamkos. I can't believe the lightning wouldn't give a higher contract with less yearly hit over a longer term.

 

[DFC]

I have to believe it is more about the structure than the money. Next 2 years cap rises significantly. If Stamkos wants to stay I would bet there is a lucrative avenue for him to get it done. I think he wants to explore FA and specifically see what Yzerman offers in DET.

You're basing this on literally nothing though. Every report, and there are a lot of them, says Stamkos wants to return to TB.