OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

[HuGort]

Tesla coming back. That's my Boy. Hasn't failed me yet.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Man... stocks have come back pretty strong lately. I'm still going to wait though. I think we're in for some choppy times.

 

[HuGort]

Man... stocks have come back pretty strong lately. I'm still going to wait though. I think we're in for some choppy times.

I am having a good day today. Should probably sell though and buy back. But hard to pick the bottom. I loaded up on TSLA when it went down and hung on.

 

[HuGort]

Man... stocks have come back pretty strong lately. I'm still going to wait though. I think we're in for some choppy times.

Economy strong balances against Feds hiking interest rates? Which way will stocks go? Russia having more trouble than everybody thought in Ukraine. Last two weeks been good. Made some decent $$$

 

[HuGort]

I have extra bucks laying around. I am not an energy stock guy, but seen it mentioned on here a bit. Where should I put a few thousand? A friend said Baytex been on good run.

 

[HuGort]

A little run out of no where. DOW 35,200, s&P 500 46,300, NASDAQ 14,600.

If S&P 500 hits 48,000 I am thinking on selling out. I almost sold out at that level around Christmas time. In long run I will lose big money but I don't care. I should be set for life. Can live an average life. Work again if I chose to but not if I dont want to.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

GameStop announces intent of stock split intentions of dividend issuance. This should be detrimental on those sold short. Up 16% AH to 195. Those who close 1st might survive. I love where this company is heading.

 

[HuGort]

Cathie Woods AARK down 37% to start 2022. Watching closing Bell now. She is on. They giving her some heat

 

[Hope Of Glory]

So with interest about to rise a lot and talks of a recession for next year (yes, I know the economy =/= the stock market but still), what's everyone's opinion on the stock market in the coming years? Finally a break from the endless growth of the last 10+ years? Stagnation for a few years? Huge crash? Or back to all time highs in a few months?

Also, will the USD keep losing value/buying power with all the money that's been printed in the last few years?

In any cases, I'll keep investing steadily but I thought it would be interesting to see what everyone thinks about what's on the horizon.

 

[montreal]

So with interest about to rise a lot and talks of a recession for next year (yes, I know the economy =/= the stock market but still), what's everyone's opinion on the stock market in the coming years? Finally a break from the endless growth of the last 10+ years? Stagnation for a few years? Huge crash? Or back to all time highs in a few months?

Also, will the USD keep losing value/buying power with all the money that's been printed in the last few years?

In any cases, I'll keep investing steadily but I thought it would be interesting to see what everyone thinks about what's on the horizon.

It's hard to say as Putin in a major wild card, what's he doing this for, what's his end game? Will he go into other countries and for how long?

I don't think inflation is the problem, I think companies are using this as an excuse to jack up prices and at some point I think congress is going to look into price gouging as these companies are crying foul but making record profits and that doesn't fit.

So if inflation comes back down, which I think it will but have been wrong about it so far as it's just gotten worse and I didn't think that would happen. But if it comes back down, I think the market will be in good shape depending on what Putin does.

If inflation is worse then I thought, which the Fed now seems to think it is after saying for a while it wasn't and I'm a huge believer in the current Fed as I think Powell is the best Fed chair of the last 10-15 years but he got this wrong so far and that does concern me greatly. So if inflation is worse then I thought, then we could see a recession but I just don't know from where it would come as housing is doing great, the job market is great, wages are up though no where near enough. I guess if rents keep going up there will be a breaking point and if the housing market does fall then that would for sure lead to a recession.

 

[HuGort]

So with interest about to rise a lot and talks of a recession for next year (yes, I know the economy =/= the stock market but still), what's everyone's opinion on the stock market in the coming years? Finally a break from the endless growth of the last 10+ years? Stagnation for a few years? Huge crash? Or back to all time highs in a few months?

Also, will the USD keep losing value/buying power with all the money that's been printed in the last few years?

In any cases, I'll keep investing steadily but I thought it would be interesting to see what everyone thinks about what's on the horizon.

Recession in a year is worst case scenario. Economy is so strong. Jobs everywhere, houses sales are brisk, earnings are great. If recession hits earliest I see it be late 2023. But like somebody else posted in here most of this is up to Russia. Putin has stirred up the world. Many are on edge of their seats.

Putin seems poised for a second attack. If he decides to mass kill civilians what will rest of world do? What will China do if it goes to WWIII?If China backs Russia how will Elon Musk respond? China is in deep with Musk. Musk played major role in stopping Russia's first attack. China loves his technology. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia tried to assassinate Musk? Many unknown twists yet?

 

[Hope Of Glory]

It's hard to say as Putin in a major wild card, what's he doing this for, what's his end game? Will he go into other countries and for how long?

I don't think inflation is the problem, I think companies are using this as an excuse to jack up prices and at some point I think congress is going to look into price gouging as these companies are crying foul but making record profits and that doesn't fit.

So if inflation comes back down, which I think it will but have been wrong about it so far as it's just gotten worse and I didn't think that would happen. But if it comes back down, I think the market will be in good shape depending on what Putin does.

If inflation is worse then I thought, which the Fed now seems to think it is after saying for a while it wasn't and I'm a huge believer in the current Fed as I think Powell is the best Fed chair of the last 10-15 years but he got this wrong so far and that does concern me greatly. So if inflation is worse then I thought, then we could see a recession but I just don't know from where it would come as housing is doing great, the job market is great, wages are up though no where near enough. I guess if rents keep going up there will be a breaking point and if the housing market does fall then that would for sure lead to a recession.

Recession in a year is worst case scenario. Economy is so strong. Jobs everywhere, houses sales are brisk, earnings are great. If recession hits earliest I see it be late 2023. But like somebody else posted in here most of this is up to Russia. Putin has stirred up the world. Many are on edge of their seats.

Putin seems poised for a second attack. If he decides to mass kill civilians what will rest of world do? What will China do if it goes to WWIII?If China backs Russia how will Elon Musk respond? China is in deep with Musk. Musk played major role in stopping Russia's first attack. China loves his technology. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia tried to assassinate Musk? Many unknown twists yet?

I don't know about the US' housing situation but my fear for Quebec is that people are overextended. There is so little inventory right now that prices are insane. New constructions are also very pricey given the rise in the price of materials. People are likely buying up to there absolute limit and have been for a few year. If you add 2% to their variable rates over the next 1-2 years, some will surely go bust. Hopefully not too many at the same time, if any.

Putin is indeed the biggest wildcard. Biden just called the recent civilian killings a ''genocide''. This usually has legal implications. But will the US really intervene directly? That would be risky for everyone. But if they do nothing, that will tarnished their image, and the power projection that comes with it, of leaders of the free world. That would likely diminish their status as the leading reserve currency, which would also mean a lost of economic power. If Putin escalates too much, the US will have no choice but to do something I think.

And all that for a guy with a supposed great military mind and army that can't even take a neighbouring state. Stupid nuclear weapons.

 

[LeHab]

So with interest about to rise a lot and talks of a recession for next year (yes, I know the economy =/= the stock market but still), what's everyone's opinion on the stock market in the coming years? Finally a break from the endless growth of the last 10+ years? Stagnation for a few years? Huge crash? Or back to all time highs in a few months?

Also, will the USD keep losing value/buying power with all the money that's been printed in the last few years?

In any cases, I'll keep investing steadily but I thought it would be interesting to see what everyone thinks about what's on the horizon.

USD has not been losing value, quite the opposite. Look at USDX index to see how USD fairs against a basket of other currencies. At highest level since early 00s tech recession except for a brief period.

Yes US has engaged in quantum easing but so did most industrialized nations. These days in particular with war in Ukraine and China COVID impact & economy underperforming people flock to USD as a safer currency. Maybe except Russia.

CAD has not depreciated against USD thanks to higher commodity prices especially oil. Rising rates will further strengthen currencies.

As for recession we will see if Feds manage a soft or hard landing. Some are pointing to a recent inversion in 10/2 years yield curves which in the past decades has been a very strong predictor of a upcoming recession. On the other hand economy is firing on all cylinders so there should be some margin even if Feds are late with rising rates.

Feds can help control demand by raising rates and tightening its balance sheet (quantum tightening) to some degree but questions remain how and when supply returns closer to normal.

 

[Hope Of Glory]

USD has not been losing value, quite the opposite. Look at USDX index to see how USD fairs against a basket of other currencies. At highest level since early 00s tech recession except for a brief period.

Yes US has engaged in quantum easing but so did most industrialized nations. These days in particular with war in Ukraine and China COVID impact & economy underperforming people flock to USD as a safer currency. Maybe except Russia.

CAD has not depreciated against USD thanks to higher commodity prices especially oil. Rising rates will further strengthen currencies.

As for recession we will see if Feds manage a soft or hard landing. Some are pointing to a recent inversion in 10/2 years yield curves which in the past decades has been a very strong predictor of a upcoming recession. On the other hand economy is firing on all cylinders so there should be some margin even if Feds are late with rising rates.

Feds can help control demand by raising rates and tightening its balance sheet (quantum tightening) to some degree but questions remain how and when supply returns closer to normal.

Just to be clear, I'm not disputing QE measures, I think they were absolutely needed. But money within the country has lost value in the least year. It does every year with inflation but this year has been particularly bad. Probably not entirely, or even mostly, related to QE, though. Relative to other countries, it might not be as bad but buying power in the US certainly decreased last year more than is has in a long time.

At least as someone pointed out the economy is really strong. And I think you're right, the raising in rates should help strengthen currencies.

I just read Ray Dalio's most recent book. Really interesting and in-depth research about all that and many more things. His Big Cycle ideas (well, more like the result of his research on Empires through time) is great. The US is definitely in the late stages of the debt cycle but given how OP the country is on so many levels, if a country can successfully pull through that, I think it's them (that's my conclusion, not so Dalio's who gives them a 30% chance of civil war in the next 10 years). Great read, even if you don't agree with everything its great food for thoughts.

 

[LeHab]

Just to be clear, I'm not disputing QE measures, I think they were absolutely needed. But money within the country has lost value in the least year. It does every year with inflation but this year has been particularly bad. Probably not entirely, or even mostly, related to QE, though. Relative to other countries, it might not be as bad but buying power in the US certainly decreased last year more than is has in a long time.

In that sense yes, inflation by definition is meant to devalue money and is not always bad. We want some inflation to encourage investment hence why the usual 2% target. Too much inflation is bad hence why Feds are looking to get that under control.

QE was on for many years and CPI was pretty stable within targets. QE has inflated assets value so depending on your holdings might have been good. Now that QT is expected we will see if reverse effect will happen.
In some ways we already do as Markets have trended down in part because of expected rate hikes/QT.

 

[QuebecPride]

I don't know about the US' housing situation but my fear for Quebec is that people are overextended. There is so little inventory right now that prices are insane. New constructions are also very pricey given the rise in the price of materials. People are likely buying up to there absolute limit and have been for a few year. If you add 2% to their variable rates over the next 1-2 years, some will surely go bust. Hopefully not too many at the same time, if any.

Putin is indeed the biggest wildcard. Biden just called the recent civilian killings a ''genocide''. This usually has legal implications. But will the US really intervene directly? That would be risky for everyone. But if they do nothing, that will tarnished their image, and the power projection that comes with it, of leaders of the free world. That would likely diminish their status as the leading reserve currency, which would also mean a lost of economic power. If Putin escalates too much, the US will have no choice but to do something I think.

And all that for a guy with a supposed great military mind and army that can't even take a neighbouring state. Stupid nuclear weapons.

Most mortgages are fixed rates. But recently (say since November), the variable was really advantageous vs. Fixed, so recent mortgages might be variable, but I'd say 80% are fixed. The big surprise will arrive in 3-4 years. Even then , banks do stress tests before lending money in Canada. They're still quite loose I'll be frank, but still it's something. Home prices are scary high, it's true. One would think they can't keep going up that fast, maybe the bubble will burst in a few years, who knows.

 

[QuebecPride]

So with interest about to rise a lot and talks of a recession for next year (yes, I know the economy =/= the stock market but still), what's everyone's opinion on the stock market in the coming years? Finally a break from the endless growth of the last 10+ years? Stagnation for a few years? Huge crash? Or back to all time highs in a few months?

Also, will the USD keep losing value/buying power with all the money that's been printed in the last few years?

In any cases, I'll keep investing steadily but I thought it would be interesting to see what everyone thinks about what's on the horizon.

If you have a long term horizon (10 years +), you should not worry about short term markets.

With a one year horizon, all bets are off.

I would not bet against the market 'over a few years' personally .

 

[LeHab]

At 10am BoC released it's rate hike/QT intention:

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1%, with the Bank Rate at 1¼% and the deposit rate at 1%. The Bank is also ending reinvestment and will begin quantitative tightening (QT), effective April 25. Maturing Government of Canada bonds on the Bank’s balance sheet will no longer be replaced and, as a result, the size of the balance sheet will decline over time.

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 50 basis points, begins quantitative tightening

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1%, with the Bank Rate at 1¼% and the deposit rate at 1%.

www.bankofcanada.ca

 

[Hope Of Glory]

In that sense yes, inflation by definition is meant to devalue money and is not always bad. We want some inflation to encourage investment hence why the usual 2% target. Too much inflation is bad hence why Feds are looking to get that under control.

QE was on for many years and CPI was pretty stable within targets. QE has inflated assets value so depending on your holdings might have been good. Now that QT is expected we will see if reverse effect will happen.
In some ways we already do as Markets have trended down in part because of expected rate hikes/QT.

Yes, I wonder how long the ''pricing in'' will last. Been going sideways for a few months now already.

Most mortgages are fixed rates. But recently (say since November), the variable was really advantageous vs. Fixed, so recent mortgages might be variable, but I'd say 80% are fixed. The big surprise will arrive in 3-4 years. Even then , banks do stress tests before lending money in Canada. They're still quite loose I'll be frank, but still it's something. Home prices are scary high, it's true. One would think they can't keep going up that fast, maybe the bubble will burst in a few years, who knows.

If it is indeed 80%, I think you're right, it won't be too bad. There are not a lot of property that have been sold in the last 1-2 years (compared to the usual figures) so it might not be as bad as I initially thought. We'll see.

If you have a long term horizon (10 years +), you should not worry about short term markets.

With a one year horizon, all bets are off.

I would not bet against the market 'over a few years' personally .

Yeah, I totally agree. It's not impossible that the market goes sideways for 5-10 years but even than, investing consistently is less risky than trying to time the market and missing out when it takes off.

Next year though? Might be wild. Will be interesting to follow.

 

[HuGort]

At 10am BoC released it's rate hike/QT intention:

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 50 basis points, begins quantitative tightening

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1%, with the Bank Rate at 1¼% and the deposit rate at 1%.

www.bankofcanada.ca

On Closing Bell last night they said CPI in March highest it's been since 1981.

Had a good show. Had Cathie Wood in, Morningstar has downgraded her AARK funds. She was mad as a wet hen. She said they don't know what they are doing. They said she was 66 and only one doing the stocks with no long term plan.

 

[HuGort]

I made around 45% on RIO stock since November. Around 38% plus 6% yield. Think I should sell that? I seen these good runs before then usually a pull back

 

[QuebecPride]

I made around 45% on RIO stock since November. Around 38% plus 6% yield. Think I should sell that? I seen these good runs before then usually a pull back

If the stock is volatile and based on a commodity, it's not a bad time to sell. If you're not certain and want to minimize regret, sell half (or 2/3, etc.) and let the rest run.

 

[HuGort]

If the stock is volatile and based on a commodity, it's not a bad time to sell. If you're not certain and want to minimize regret, sell half (or 2/3, etc.) and let the rest run.

Yup, I think I will. Take my profit and run. Odds are in future at some point RIO will be lower than it is now.

I seen this before with Home Depot. I bought in 2 years ago. I doubled my money, HD went up to $410 a share. Now it has fell back to $305. I am not making that mistake again.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

So with interest about to rise a lot and talks of a recession for next year (yes, I know the economy =/= the stock market but still), what's everyone's opinion on the stock market in the coming years? Finally a break from the endless growth of the last 10+ years? Stagnation for a few years? Huge crash? Or back to all time highs in a few months?

Also, will the USD keep losing value/buying power with all the money that's been printed in the last few years?

In any cases, I'll keep investing steadily but I thought it would be interesting to see what everyone thinks about what's on the horizon.

Everything is a bubble. The worst of it is yet to come. We will see a major pullback imo. There will be plenty of opportunities to buy at discount prices. We haven’t sniffed the bottom imo. CPI in the US is over 8.5% inflation and the real world inflation is much higher. IMO Powell has mishandled this mess since being named Fed Chairman. Putin is a convenient excuse, but this could be seen a mile away long before Ukraine/Russia.

 

[HuGort]

Everything is a bubble. The worst of it is yet to come. We will see a major pullback imo. There will be plenty of opportunities to buy at discount prices. We haven’t sniffed the bottom imo. CPI in the US is over 8.5% inflation and the real world inflation is much higher. IMO Powell has mishandled this mess since being named Fed Chairman. Putin is a convenient excuse, but this could be seen a mile away long before Ukraine/Russia.

Tom Lee was on After The Bell last night, he said the S&P reached its low back in February. He said it will reach its high again by end of year. But he hesitated it when he said it. He said it is not a straight arrow up.