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OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

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BehindTheTimes said:
Everything is a bubble. The worst of it is yet to come. We will see a major pullback imo. There will be plenty of opportunities to buy at discount prices. We haven’t sniffed the bottom imo. CPI in the US is over 8.5% inflation and the real world inflation is much higher. IMO Powell has mishandled this mess since being named Fed Chairman. Putin is a convenient excuse, but this could be seen a mile away long before Ukraine/Russia.
Click to expand...

Define real world inflation.
 
Scorey Perry said:
Tom Lee was on After The Bell last night, he said the S&P reached its low back in February. He said it will reach its high again by end of year. But he hesitated it when he said it. He said it is not a straight arrow up.
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This isn’t a matter of if, but when. She’s going to pop and it’s going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park.
 
BehindTheTimes said:
Fuel, food, housing, electricity. Everything you can’t live without is way, way, way over 8.5%. It’s an insult to suggest otherwise.
Click to expand...

You think those things are not included in CPI?

The CPI basket weight for food increased from 16.07% in 2013 to 16.45% in 2015.

Shelter’s share of the CPI basket reached 26.79% in 2015, as the share of rent charges rose from 5.67% in 2013 to 6.20% in 2015.

The basket weight for transportation expenses declined from 20.01% in 2013 to 19.48% in 2015.

The household operations, furnishings and equipment major component recorded continued growth in its share of the CPI basket between 2009 and 2015, rising from 11.84% to 13.01% over the period.

16.45 + 26.79 + 19.48 + 13.01 = 75.73%.

An Analysis of the 2017 Consumer Price Index Basket Update, Based on 2015 Expenditures

Introduction The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of Canada’s most important economic indicators and is used to support monetary policy, and adjust wages and social benefits. The CPI measures the change in the cost of a basket of goods and services that is typically purchased by Canadians.
www.statcan.gc.ca www.statcan.gc.ca

Transportation (gas and car prices), Food, Shelter (housing) and Household operations (electricity, internet, water bills, etc.) account for more than 75% of the CPI index. I'm not sure I understand your real inflation thing.

You can claim that the basket of goods is not representative to your situation. Stats can has a tool to calculate your own inflation rate by the way. Personal Inflation Calculator

But saying the CPI is a hoax and we're all being lied to, that's incorrect.
 
QuebecPride said:
You think those things are not included in CPI?

The CPI basket weight for food increased from 16.07% in 2013 to 16.45% in 2015.

Shelter’s share of the CPI basket reached 26.79% in 2015, as the share of rent charges rose from 5.67% in 2013 to 6.20% in 2015.

The basket weight for transportation expenses declined from 20.01% in 2013 to 19.48% in 2015.

The household operations, furnishings and equipment major component recorded continued growth in its share of the CPI basket between 2009 and 2015, rising from 11.84% to 13.01% over the period.

16.45 + 26.79 + 19.48 + 13.01 = 75.73%.

An Analysis of the 2017 Consumer Price Index Basket Update, Based on 2015 Expenditures

Introduction The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of Canada’s most important economic indicators and is used to support monetary policy, and adjust wages and social benefits. The CPI measures the change in the cost of a basket of goods and services that is typically purchased by Canadians.
www.statcan.gc.ca www.statcan.gc.ca

Transportation (gas and car prices), Food, Shelter (housing) and Household operations (electricity, internet, water bills, etc.) account for more than 75% of the CPI index. I'm not sure I understand your real inflation thing.

You can claim that the basket of goods is not representative to your situation. Stats can has a tool to calculate your own inflation rate by the way. Personal Inflation Calculator

But saying the CPI is a hoax and we're all being lied to, that's incorrect.
Click to expand...
CPI is a farce to make inflation look lower than it is. It’s a joke metric.
 
BehindTheTimes said:
Everything is a bubble. The worst of it is yet to come. We will see a major pullback imo. There will be plenty of opportunities to buy at discount prices. We haven’t sniffed the bottom imo. CPI in the US is over 8.5% inflation and the real world inflation is much higher. IMO Powell has mishandled this mess since being named Fed Chairman. Putin is a convenient excuse, but this could be seen a mile away long before Ukraine/Russia.
Click to expand...
Quite doom and gloom aren't you?
 
Netflix took huge drop took yesterday. I never held that stock because I didn't like the service. Try the free month 5 years ago, wasn't for me.
But shows how these high valuations companies the bottom can fall out if anything goes wrong.
 
We haven’t found the bottom yet imo. There is no soft landing. We shall see where this goes!! I’m loaded in btc/Eth. Feeling pretty good about it.
 
Becky on Squawkbox this morning said Musk sold 4 billion worth of Tesla stock this week to help finance Twitter purchase. Elsewhere I see Bill Gates shorted 500 million of Tesla stock when Musk made first offer two weeks ago. Sounds like Gates knew something...lol
 
Big run late today. S&P up to $4,300. If it gets back to last Christmas time levels I am going to sell out On After the Bell today they expected good run in May.

I am expecting recession sometime in 2023. Too many factors to pinpoint actual dates. But in general going to be hard to avoid a recession.

If
 
Scorey Perry said:
Big run late today. S&P up to $4,300. If it gets back to last Christmas time levels I am going to sell out On After the Bell today they expected good run in May.

I am expecting recession sometime in 2023. Too many factors to pinpoint actual dates. But in general going to be hard to avoid a recession.

If
Click to expand...

Yesterday Fed gave a pretty optimistic outlook which rallied markets. Today Bank of England was much more pessimistic and only raised rates by 25bp helping drive the tank.

Majority of Europe is likely heading for some real hardship if sanctions and supply issues persist.
 
LeHab said:
Yesterday Fed gave a pretty optimistic outlook which rallied markets. Today Bank of England was much more pessimistic and only raised rates by 25bp helping drive the tank.

Majority of Europe is likely heading for some real hardship if sanctions and supply issues persist.
Click to expand...
It's a headache. Has to comeback sometime. Earnings are there. More than 3/4 of companies have reported for first quarter 2022, majority have beat estimates. As time goes on and the cash piles up, it has to turn other way eventually
 
Do you think any Canadian marijuana firms will ever go public? Canada are known to make great vaporizers. Just got one in the mail with USB C and wireless charging and they even included 2 wireless charging power banks 5,000 mAh.
 
BehindTheTimes said:
I think this has almost nothing to do with the war. It’s a convenient excuse, but this could be seen a mile away. Bottom still not in. She’s a mess.
Click to expand...
No, it's war. I seen same thing in Iraqie war. Gas prices thru the roof. Spiking inflation. I think Feds will have to act even stronger. Likely a major recession in 23 or 24
 
BehindTheTimes said:
I think this has almost nothing to do with the war. It’s a convenient excuse, but this could be seen a mile away. Bottom still not in. She’s a mess.
Click to expand...

One of the most powerful nations with nukes, threatens the world with nuclear war and it's a convenient excuse?
 
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