Blue Jays Discussion: Let the post-winter-meeting, pre-spring-training baseball withdrawl commence!

[Dugath]

Marcus Stroman has 24 starts in his young career, for 147.1 innings. Over those innings, he has pitched like a #1. The reason he did not pitch a full season last year was due to a fluke injury that had nothing to do with his arm. He'll likely produce a Gerrit Cole 2015 in his 2016. Trust me.

As for Marco, he's pitched like a #3 in three out of the last four seasons. I would cease considering 2014 as "the rest of his career".

The Rugged man had an ERA of 2.80 and FIP of 3.66 in the second half of 2015. His velocity increased over 2 mph from April and May to the end of the season. But yes, last legs and other loud noises.

No one can say what Happ will be for certain in 2016. He's either going to pitch like a #2, a #5, or somewhere in between. Either way, he fits just fine in the rotation and is affordable with upside.

If Hutch "figures it out" and goes full Kluberieta, then we'll throw a party. If he doesn't, he'll be in triple A and Jesse Chavez/Aaron Sanchez will fill the #5 spot.

Finally, your description of "a possible #1 and a bunch of 3-5s" describes 87% of the rotations in baseball.

Please feel free to provide your math to come up with this 87%.

 

[Discoverer]

Sanchez' current pitch mix:

- sinker (60%)
- 4 seam (16%)
- Curve (14%)
- change (6%)
- cutter (4%)

Is just fine for a starter, actually. Especially a sinker baller. Derek Lowe and Brandon Webb threw their sinkers 75% of the time in their primes. Their sinkers did not average 95 mph, but rather 88-89 mph.

Yeah, I think there's a tendency to lump the two- and four-seamer together and say "This is how often he throws the fastball," when that's really an inaccurate perception because they're two distinctly different pitches.

 

[TootooTrain]

If Sanchez could become a Tim Hudson duplicate I'd be thrilled.

 

[Keeping it Blue]

Please feel free to provide your math to come up with this 87%.

87% is 4 of 30. It would save a lot of time to list out how many teams have better than a Ace (maybe) and a bunch of 3-5 starters.

 

[MJ65]

Is there any chance that they are going to sign Donaldson before going to arbitrator, it's only $400 K guys

 

[tp71]

Oh, they ask all 500 level seat holders to go down first? We will be getting tickets very likely in the 100 section as we only get to a game once every five years or so. So we would have to wait 30-45 minutes and then the 500 level goes?

I've also heard go-train is the way go to! That's probably what we will do.

Thanks for your help guys. Looking forward to June already.

No sorry, the 500 level goes around the bases first, then the 200, then 100. So you might take a bit longer. Depends on the team playing them. We went during a sellout against the Yankees, so it took longer. But they told us it generally takes around that long. Once the 500 level gets through it starts to really move.

Went with my cousin's kids this year. It was a lot of fun either way. They were enthralled by the roof opening, the stuff prior to the game, face painted etc. It was a cool experience for me to be with some kids with that kind of excitement. A different spin on the game.

 

[Swervin81]

Sanchez' current pitch mix:

- sinker (60%)
- 4 seam (16%)
- Curve (14%)
- change (6%)
- cutter (4%)

Is just fine for a starter, actually. Especially a sinker baller. Derek Lowe and Brandon Webb threw their sinkers 75% of the time in their primes. Their sinkers did not average 95 mph, but rather 88-89 mph.

Honestly, his pitch arsenal doesn't bother me as much as his inability to strike guys out and his inability to locate his pitches does. His command and his deceptiveness (or lackthereof) are holding him back from having top tier potential IMO. It's not just the walks, but he tends to leave pitches out over the plate in bad spots. As a reliever, it wasn't of great consequence since that sinker was so nasty against RHH that squaring it up in a good spot is a pain by itself. But as a starter, it won't be as easy since hitters would have multiple AB's to adjust and learn and that sinker wouldn't be thrown as hard.

Honestly, I think the Doc Halladay approach is best for Sanchez if he's being stretched out. Send him back down and rebuild his approach. Something that has more deception and more command. It only took Doc less than half of the season to re-emerge. Hell, Doc also had a terrific sinker.

 

[zeke]

Sanchez' current pitch mix:

- sinker (60%)
- 4 seam (16%)
- Curve (14%)
- change (6%)
- cutter (4%)

Is just fine for a starter, actually. Especially a sinker baller. Derek Lowe and Brandon Webb threw their sinkers 75% of the time in their primes. Their sinkers did not average 95 mph, but rather 88-89 mph.

well, I'm not sure the 4sm, sinker, and cutter aren't all the same pitch - a crazy fastball that move all over the place, and could be one of the best pitches in baseball with some command.

the curve is nasty, though.

for me it all comes down to that changeup - if he can make that an effective pitch, then he can be pretty damn good.

 

[Discoverer]

well, I'm not sure the 4sm, sinker, and cutter aren't all the same pitch - a crazy fastball that move all over the place, and could be one of the best pitches in baseball with some command.

the curve is nasty, though.

for me it all comes down to that changeup - if he can make that an effective pitch, then he can be pretty damn good.

The development of the change will be a huge factor in whether or not he can learn to get lefties out consistently.

 

[zeke]

Last 3yrs (war = average of fipwar and ra9war)

Stroman (25): 24gs, 6.1ip/gs, 77era-, 75fip-, 83xfip-, 4.9war/32gs
Dickey (40): 101gs, 6.5ip/gs, 98era-, 112fip-, 111xfip-, 2.2war/32gs
Estrada (31): 67gs, 6.1ip/gs, 100era-, 116fip-, 113xfip-, 2.2war/32gs
Chavez (32): 47gs, 5.9ip/gs, 103era-, 99fip-, 95xfip-, 2.3war/32gs
Happ (33): 75gs, 5.6ip/gs, 103era-, 100fip-, 103xfip-, 2.3war/32gs
Hutch (25): 60gs, 5.6ip/gs, 125era-, 103fip-, 102xfip-, 1.3war/32gs
Sanchez (23): 11gs, 6.0ip/gs, 87era-, 127fip-, 115xfip-, 1.9war/32gs
Osuna (21): ---

1. Unproven #1 SP
2-5. #3/4 types with major question marks
6-8. Kids with above average upside, but totally unproven.

should be a decent staff, but it has neither a high ceiling nor a high floor, imo.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

well, I'm not sure the 4sm, sinker, and cutter aren't all the same pitch - a crazy fastball that move all over the place, and could be one of the best pitches in baseball with some command.

the curve is nasty, though.

for me it all comes down to that changeup - if he can make that an effective pitch, then he can be pretty damn good.

Brooks baseball does a tremendous job of identifying and classing pitch types. I'll go with their splits of the fastball.

The change shows some good flashes, but is simply too firm. If they could fiddle with the grip and drop it 4 mph to ~86 mph, then you've got something for sure.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Please feel free to provide your math to come up with this 87%.

I'll allow you to simply employ your common sense to reach a conclusion, and gain some semblance of comfort with the number.

 

[BertCorbeau]

So Chris Davis' new contract will actually keep him paid by Baltimore until 2037, when he's 51 ... $17 mill annually per season through the 7 year contract, then the remainder through annual payments for 15 years after .. My math indicates that this works out to be about $2.8 mill per year for Davis over that time.

This made me laugh .. The O's will be stuck with him for all 7 years.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Honestly, his pitch arsenal doesn't bother me as much as his inability to strike guys out and his inability to locate his pitches does. His command and his deceptiveness (or lackthereof) are holding him back from having top tier potential IMO. It's not just the walks, but he tends to leave pitches out over the plate in bad spots. As a reliever, it wasn't of great consequence since that sinker was so nasty against RHH that squaring it up in a good spot is a pain by itself. But as a starter, it won't be as easy since hitters would have multiple AB's to adjust and learn and that sinker wouldn't be thrown as hard.

Honestly, I think the Doc Halladay approach is best for Sanchez if he's being stretched out. Send him back down and rebuild his approach. Something that has more deception and more command. It only took Doc less than half of the season to re-emerge. Hell, Doc also had a terrific sinker.

Again, the sinker is a very unique pitch that can stand alone as a primary pitch, and maintain effectiveness several times through the order.

The Doc example is an odd one to use given that when he first broke in, he was an over the top right hander who was 4seam-curveball. He was rebuilt with the 3/4 slot and 2seam/sinker-cutter-slurve as his bread and butter. Sanchez already has the natural life sinker.

 

[Kurtz]

So Chris Davis' new contract will actually keep him paid by Baltimore until 2037, when he's 51 ... $17 mill annually per season through the 7 year contract, then the remainder through annual payments for 15 years after.

This made me laugh.

We discussed it earlier, but essentially, structuring it in this manner saves the Orioles between $12 (conservative 4% discount rate) and $17 (7% discount rate) million dollars over the life of the contract.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

So Chris Davis' new contract will actually keep him paid by Baltimore until 2037, when he's 51 ... $17 mill annually per season through the 7 year contract, then the remainder through annual payments for 15 years after .. My math indicates that this works out to be about $2.8 mill per year for Davis over that time.

This made me laugh .. The O's will be stuck with him for all 7 years.

That Bonilla.

 

[Discoverer]

We discussed it earlier, but essentially, structuring it in this manner saves the Orioles between $12 (conservative 4% discount rate) and $17 (7% discount rate) million dollars over the life of the contract.

Which pushes the commitment down to somewhere around the $150 million mark, which was always going to look like too much for Chris Davis.

 

[Eyedea]

well, I'm not sure the 4sm, sinker, and cutter aren't all the same pitch - a crazy fastball that move all over the place, and could be one of the best pitches in baseball with some command.

the curve is nasty, though.

for me it all comes down to that changeup - if he can make that an effective pitch, then he can be pretty damn good.

He had a 9.3% SwStr% on the curve last season. Nasty would be holding players to 47% contact rate and having them whiff 28% of the time (Cecil!).

Right now all he has going for him is velocity and build. He really needs to show more refinement of his pitches before we tag him as a starter. Having a good ra9-war in a small sample size doesn't prove his capableness of suppressing runners from scoring.

 

[LaCarriere]

So Chris Davis' new contract will actually keep him paid by Baltimore until 2037, when he's 51 ... $17 mill annually per season through the 7 year contract, then the remainder through annual payments for 15 years after .. My math indicates that this works out to be about $2.8 mill per year for Davis over that time.

This made me laugh .. The O's will be stuck with him for all 7 years.

I like the way this is structured better than the Scherzer deal. It drags on until 2037, but the deferred money is not too significant annually.

If you're unfamiliar with what Scherzer signed last year, he got 210M for 7 years (looks like 30M/year), but the Nats are paying him 15M/year for 14 years. When you break down the math, it actually is closer to 150M dollars based on NPV (net present value). The problem with this, is that the Nats need to up payroll by 15M a year starting in 2022 just to spend their way out of that hole of deferred money / dead weight.

With Davis, he's getting deferred payments of 3.5M from 2023-32, and 1.4M from 2033-37 (as per Buster Olney's twitter). Yes, the contract drags on much longer, but 3.5M in 2025 is going to be a lot less than 3.5M today. 1.5M in 2035 is going to look like nickels and dimes (for ball players). That's not a huge commitment to match dollar for dollar starting in 2023 for the O's to spend out of.

 

[zeke]

He had a 9.3% SwStr% on the curve last season. Nasty would be holding players to 47% contact rate and having them whiff 28% of the time (Cecil!).

Right now all he has going for him is velocity and build. He really needs to show more refinement of his pitches before we tag him as a starter. Having a good ra9-war in a small sample size doesn't prove his capableness of suppressing runners from scoring.

dismissing it as just ra9 is a bit misleading, imo. we know his stuff is very nasty, but we also know he doesn't get a lot of swinging strikes.

but are their other component stats besides swstr% we can look at to help explain his good ra9? sure.

MLB Leaders, as SP, min 50ip:

GB%: #6 A.Sanchez 58.1%
FB%: #7 A.Sanchez 22.7%
GB/FB: #7 A.Sanchez 2.56
Hard Contact: #15 A.Sanchez 24.1%

sure we can question whether these are as sustainable as swstr% but it's still true that we can see evidence that his nasty stuff is working despite not missing a ton of bats.

 

[Eyedea]

I like the way this is structured better than the Scherzer deal. It drags on until 2037, but the deferred money is not too significant annually.

If you're unfamiliar with what Scherzer signed last year, he got 210M for 7 years (looks like 30M/year), but the Nats are paying him 15M/year for 14 years. When you break down the math, it actually is closer to 150M dollars based on NPV (net present value). The problem with this, is that the Nats need to up payroll by 15M a year starting in 2022 just to spend their way out of that hole of deferred money / dead weight.

With Davis, he's getting deferred payments of 3.5M from 2023-32, and 1.4M from 2033-37 (as per Buster Olney's twitter). Yes, the contract drags on much longer, but 3.5M in 2025 is going to be a lot less than 3.5M today. 1.5M in 2035 is going to look like nickels and dimes (for ball players). That's not a huge commitment to match dollar for dollar starting in 2023 for the O's to spend out of.

At the same time the way it is structured is essential for the Nats budget. While we all think Harper is probably a Yankee in a few years, the Nats deferred a significant amount of money in hopes of building a sustainable winner for the next 6 years. Scherzer at 30m aav would not have allowed them that ability.

 

[Eyedea]

dismissing it as just ra9 is a bit misleading, imo. we know his stuff is very nasty, but we also know he doesn't get a lot of swinging strikes.

but are their other component stats besides swstr% we can look at to help explain his good ra9? sure.

MLB Leaders, as SP, min 50ip:

GB%: #6 A.Sanchez 58.1%
FB%: #7 A.Sanchez 22.7%
GB/FB: #7 A.Sanchez 2.56
Hard Contact: #15 A.Sanchez 24.1%

sure we can question whether these are as sustainable as swstr% but it's still true that we can see evidence that his nasty stuff is working despite not missing a ton of bats.

Except we know that those who have a high GB% tend to have a high BABIP as well (in comparison to flyball pitchers). Unless you're just an absurdly good pitcher that does everything well like Kershaw and Arrieta, it's unlikely that a high BB/9, low K/9, groundball pitcher can have a sustainably low ERA.

 

[sgm1]

No sorry, the 500 level goes around the bases first, then the 200, then 100. So you might take a bit longer. Depends on the team playing them. We went during a sellout against the Yankees, so it took longer. But they told us it generally takes around that long. Once the 500 level gets through it starts to really move.

Went with my cousin's kids this year. It was a lot of fun either way. They were enthralled by the roof opening, the stuff prior to the game, face painted etc. It was a cool experience for me to be with some kids with that kind of excitement. A different spin on the game.

Perfect. Thanks for the heads up. It was very helpful.

 

[zeke]

Except we know that those who have a high GB% tend to have a high BABIP as well (in comparison to flyball pitchers). Unless you're just an absurdly good pitcher that does everything well like Kershaw and Arrieta, it's unlikely that a high BB/9, low K/9, groundball pitcher can have a sustainably low ERA.

actually, if you look at the top 10-15 gb% you see more low babips than high.

and sanchez' 17.8hr/fb% as an SP is just as likely to be due regression.

and the most encouraging part of his stint as SP was the drastic improvement in bb% by the end of it.

 

[tmlfan98]

I think we have a better rotation than the Royals did in 2015. This rotation should fare just fine.