Blue Jays Discussion: Let the post-winter-meeting, pre-spring-training baseball withdrawl commence!

[LaCarriere]

With Smoak, the thinking was that he was going off the platform from what he was earning with the Mariners, not the 1M last season. So while MLBTR projected him at 2M, they weren't taking the $3.75M he would have been going off of and probably awarded over $4M.

And I'd argue that's a good case where you challenge the arbitration system. Also, BR and Spotrac has his 2014 salary at 2.6M.

You don't have much to lose in that case -- if you lose the hearing he gets his ~4.0M based on his salary 2 years ago, if you win you save a couple million.

 

[LeafsTFC]

Good morning all,

I'm looking at a trip to Toronto in June and am wonder what everyone experience with Jr. Jays saturdays/"running the bases" after any Saturday afternoon games? How long after the game are you able to get onto the field? We will be staying outside of Toronto, so if its going to be a significant wait to get on the field, we might not wait around.

Maybe i missed the discussion, but is there a preferred place to park for the game? I'll be coming from the Paris area.

Thanks in advance!

I don't have a car so I don't know the downtown parking lots too well but if it's possible, I would think hard about parking at a TTC station and/or Go Station and taking transit the rest of the way. Maybe others can chime in as to whether that's something they've done but the traffic will probably be crazy after the game if it's a nice Saturday and the Jays are doing well

 

[tp71]

Good morning all,

I'm looking at a trip to Toronto in June and am wonder what everyone experience with Jr. Jays saturdays/"running the bases" after any Saturday afternoon games? How long after the game are you able to get onto the field? We will be staying outside of Toronto, so if its going to be a significant wait to get on the field, we might not wait around.

Maybe i missed the discussion, but is there a preferred place to park for the game? I'll be coming from the Paris area.

Thanks in advance!

From what I heard Jr Jays generally takes around 30-45 mins. They go 500 then 200 then 100. So it will depend on what level you sit.

As for parking, when I do park in Toronto, there's a Toyota lot thats 20-30 bucks about a 10-15 min walk. Traffic isn't usually that bad as it's far enough away from the Rogers Centre. It's at Front St and Draper just west of Spadina. There was a lot to the north of that as well that I've used when the Toyota lot was full.

Another nice way is taking the Go train in. Don't have to deal with traffic. Usually come from Aldershot coming from London.

 

[TF97]

Don't know if it has been posted yet. But we signed LHP Daniel Schlereth to a MLC.

 

[p.l.f.]

tigers got j.upton
nice lineup

 

[Swervin81]

Mike Ilitch is really taking this YOLO thing too far.

I can see them being a good team (they have the 2nd best lineup next to us IMO), and their rotation could be solid if Norris develops and Verlander (HUGE wildcard) goes well.

 

[one77]

With the addition of Storen I'm pretty happy with the roster now. If Stroman is the ace we know he is, the additions of Happ and Chavez were great ones. Makes our starting rotation solid from top to bottom.

1. Stroman
2. Estrada
3. Dickey
4. Happ
5. Hutchison/Chavez

Hutchison/Chavez, Venditte, Loup, Cecil, Sanchez, Storen, Osuna

1) Travis / Goins 2B
2) Donaldson 3B
3) Bautista RF
4) Encarnacion DH
5) Tulowitzki / Goins SS
6) Martin / Thole C
7) Colabello / Smoak 1B
8) Pillar / Pompey CF
9) Saunders / Pompey LF

 

[Discoverer]

Mike Ilitch is really taking this YOLO thing too far.

I can see them being a good team (they have the 2nd best lineup next to us IMO), and their rotation could be solid if Norris develops and Verlander (HUGE wildcard) goes well.

The Tigers are a tough team to figure out, but I think they're probably right there with the rest of the division. There's a ton of upside, but a few majors question marks.

As things stand right now, I would put Cleveland and Detroit at the top with KC slightly behind and Chicago and Minnesota well back.

 

[sgm1]

From what I heard Jr Jays generally takes around 30-45 mins. They go 500 then 200 then 100. So it will depend on what level you sit.

As for parking, when I do park in Toronto, there's a Toyota lot thats 20-30 bucks about a 10-15 min walk. Traffic isn't usually that bad as it's far enough away from the Rogers Centre. It's at Front St and Draper just west of Spadina. There was a lot to the north of that as well that I've used when the Toyota lot was full.

Another nice way is taking the Go train in. Don't have to deal with traffic. Usually come from Aldershot coming from London.

Oh, they ask all 500 level seat holders to go down first? We will be getting tickets very likely in the 100 section as we only get to a game once every five years or so. So we would have to wait 30-45 minutes and then the 500 level goes?

I've also heard go-train is the way go to! That's probably what we will do.

Thanks for your help guys. Looking forward to June already.

 

[Dugath]

With the addition of Storen I'm pretty happy with the roster now. If Stroman is the ace we know he is, the additions of Happ and Chavez were great ones. Makes our starting rotation solid from top to bottom.

1. Stroman
2. Estrada
3. Dickey
4. Happ
5. Hutchison/Chavez

This rotation has be very worried.

1. Stroman - probably the one I have the most faith in.
2. Which Estrada will we get this year. The same from last year or the one from the rest of his career.
3. Dickey ,to me he is on his last legs and I hope he is traded before the season starts.
4. Happ.. which Happ are we getting this year, not sold on him.
5. Hutch, will THIS be the year he figures it out..

To me this is not a good rotation. A possible #1 (still without a full season) and a bunch of 3-5's

 

[one77]

This rotation has be very worried.

1. Stroman - probably the one I have the most faith in.
2. Which Estrada will we get this year. The same from last year or the one from the rest of his career.
3. Dickey ,to me he is on his last legs and I hope he is traded before the season starts.
4. Happ.. which Happ are we getting this year, not sold on him.
5. Hutch, will THIS be the year he figures it out..

To me this is not a good rotation. A possible #1 (still without a full season) and a bunch of 3-5's

I do agree, but having a bunch of #3 guys from 2-5 is not such a bad thing. Steady and solid is what we are hoping for here. Not asking for Estrada/Hutch/Happ/Chavez/Dickey to be Cy Young pitchers, just steady.

If one of these guys completely falters, I would be very happy putting Sanchez in there.

 

[Cor]

Aaron Sanchez says he wants to start for the Jays in 2016.

Marcus Stroman says he's ready too.

 

[Discoverer]

This rotation has be very worried.

1. Stroman - probably the one I have the most faith in.
2. Which Estrada will we get this year. The same from last year or the one from the rest of his career.
3. Dickey ,to me he is on his last legs and I hope he is traded before the season starts.
4. Happ.. which Happ are we getting this year, not sold on him.
5. Hutch, will THIS be the year he figures it out..

To me this is not a good rotation. A possible #1 (still without a full season) and a bunch of 3-5's

I think you're overstating the concerns around a lot of these guys.

1. Makes sense.

2. In the last four years, Estrada was only worse than 2015 once. He probably won't have a 3.13 ERA again, but he'll likely be a solid contributor.

3. There's very little sign of decline from Dickey. The strikeouts were down last year, but a big portion of that was offset by a massive decline in walk rate in the second half. I would be shocked if he doesn't get similar results in 2016 to his previous three seasons.

4. The don't need Second Half of 2015 Happ. If they get that, they basically have an ace. But prior to that, he was a league average pitcher. That's solid, and it's likely all they're expecting from him (and all they're paying him for).

5. Even though I'm high on a breakout of sorts from Hutch, he is a big question mark. But that's why they have Chavez, who's also approximately a league-average pitcher. They also have the possibility of Sanchez or Osuna for this spot.

 

[chewey]

Aaron Sanchez says he wants to start for the Jays in 2016.

Marcus Stroman says he's ready too.

I'm ready to date Daisy Ridley, my mom says so too. But. It. Ain't. Happening.

Sanchez stucks as a starter and shouldn't face LHH ever. I hope Atkins trades him and signs Balton or Bastardo

 

[Clark4Ever]

Ideally, Sanchez can develop into an effective number two starter for us this season. He was our best starter statistically last season prior to his injury.

Stroman
Sanchez
Estrada
Dickey
Happ

Not elite, but solid 1-5. Every guy is capable of 12-15 wins.

 

[Eyedea]

Ideally, Sanchez can develop into an effective number two starter for us this season. He was our best starter statistically last season prior to his injury.

Stroman
Sanchez
Estrada
Dickey
Happ

Not elite, but solid 1-5. Every guy is capable of 12-15 wins.

Statistically AA-ron was a replacement level starter that significantly outperformed his DIPS. Sanchez developing into an effective number two starter this season is not ideal, it's a dream.

 

[chewey]

He was our best starter statistically last season prior to his injury.

I'd like to know the argument behind this.

 

[Discoverer]

I'm ready to date Daisy Ridley, my mom says so too. But. It. Ain't. Happening.

Sanchez stucks as a starter and shouldn't face LHH ever. I hope Atkins trades him and signs Balton or Bastardo

That's a hell of a conclusion to draw from 11 career starts.

 

[chewey]

That's a hell of a conclusion to draw from 11 career starts.

Yes, because his minor league experience is something I clearly ignored. Oh wait nope, he sucked, walked guys, couldn't strike people out and didn't have effective pitch mix either. Well, at least the batters in majors are worse than the minors right?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

This rotation has be very worried.

1. Stroman - probably the one I have the most faith in.
2. Which Estrada will we get this year. The same from last year or the one from the rest of his career.
3. Dickey ,to me he is on his last legs and I hope he is traded before the season starts.
4. Happ.. which Happ are we getting this year, not sold on him.
5. Hutch, will THIS be the year he figures it out..

To me this is not a good rotation. A possible #1 (still without a full season) and a bunch of 3-5's

Marcus Stroman has 24 starts in his young career, for 147.1 innings. Over those innings, he has pitched like a #1. The reason he did not pitch a full season last year was due to a fluke injury that had nothing to do with his arm. He'll likely produce a Gerrit Cole 2015 in his 2016. Trust me.

As for Marco, he's pitched like a #3 in three out of the last four seasons. I would cease considering 2014 as "the rest of his career".

The Rugged man had an ERA of 2.80 and FIP of 3.66 in the second half of 2015. His velocity increased over 2 mph from April and May to the end of the season. But yes, last legs and other loud noises.

No one can say what Happ will be for certain in 2016. He's either going to pitch like a #2, a #5, or somewhere in between. Either way, he fits just fine in the rotation and is affordable with upside.

If Hutch "figures it out" and goes full Kluberieta, then we'll throw a party. If he doesn't, he'll be in triple A and Jesse Chavez/Aaron Sanchez will fill the #5 spot.

Finally, your description of "a possible #1 and a bunch of 3-5s" describes 87% of the rotations in baseball.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I'm ready to date Daisy Ridley, my mom says so too. But. It. Ain't. Happening.

Sanchez stucks as a starter and shouldn't face LHH ever. I hope Atkins trades him and signs Balton or Bastardo

Do tell us more about that 66 inning sample size, oh wise one.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Yes, because his minor league experience is something I clearly ignored. Oh wait nope, he sucked, walked guys, couldn't strike people out and didn't have effective pitch mix either. Well, at least the batters in majors are worse than the minors right?

Sounds like Tyson Ross.

 

[Discoverer]

I'd like to know the argument behind this.

The only real argument is his ERA. He wasn't very good as a starter.

What I do like about his time as a starter, though, is the progress he showed in his last few starts. Small samples all around, obviously, but in his last four starts before the injury, his walk rate was 2.57 (compared to 6.87 before). His Zone-% increased from 44.4 to 47.9%. His SwStr% increased from 6 to 8.8%. Even his velocity increased noticeably.

I don't think he's any kind of sure thing out of the rotation by any means, but virtually every stat you could possibly look at was moving in the right direction prior to getting hurt. You should at least want him to have another chance. He's 23 years old.

 

[LaCarriere]

Sanchez has a lot of work to do to become an effective starter. He was moving in the right direction, yes, but it was such a small sample size, you can't really begin to draw any conclusions from it.

He needs to develop more pitches, right now all he throws are fastballs and cutters.

If you look at his velocity charts (link below) you can see a noticeable increase in the 2nd half of 2015 when he was throwing out of the pen, versus the start of 2015 when he was in the rotation.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=11490&position=P&pitch=FT

His pitch mix works well out of the pen, but when all you're throwing is heat, you're not going to get 2-3 times through the batting order. He needs to develop his changeup (which he almost never throws), or a breaking ball, and that will probably require going to the minors for the better part of a year, maybe more.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Sanchez has a lot of work to do to become an effective starter. He was moving in the right direction, yes, but it was such a small sample size, you can't really begin to draw any conclusions from it.

He needs to develop more pitches, right now all he throws are fastballs and cutters.

If you look at his velocity charts (link below) you can see a noticeable increase in the 2nd half of 2015 when he was throwing out of the pen, versus the start of 2015 when he was in the rotation.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=11490&position=P&pitch=FT

His pitch mix works well out of the pen, but when all you're throwing is heat, you're not going to get 2-3 times through the batting order. He needs to develop his changeup (which he almost never throws), or a breaking ball, and that will probably require going to the minors for the better part of a year, maybe more.

Sanchez' current pitch mix:

- sinker (60%)
- 4 seam (16%)
- Curve (14%)
- change (6%)
- cutter (4%)

Is just fine for a starter, actually. Especially a sinker baller. Derek Lowe and Brandon Webb threw their sinkers 75% of the time in their primes. Their sinkers did not average 95 mph, but rather 88-89 mph.